SMH
SOXX 1 year trendSemiconductors/chips continue to be an essential part of everything around the globe.
For a year, we have maintained an upward trend, which is being tested today.
There are clear outperformers in the industry, but it is clearly been working for all of them as a whole.
When we have touched the trend line in the past, we have had a 50 point gain, which has happened through 2 weeks approximately. That gives us a target of around $505.
$AMD BreakoutSee where she closes, but as of now, AMD has broken out of the descending triangle indicating bullish sentiment and more upside this week potentially.
I'm long 10/15 calls , weekly 110C for a higher risk/reward idea
MU - consolidating , possible falling wedge pattern Micron looks to be consolidating on the daily chart heading into earnings Tuesday after market. The POC - (point of control) could be target $80, after earnings with 8% move expected.
The Oct 1st options data shows a put/call ratio at .55 . The Oct 15th $75 and $80 calls have over 28000 Open interest.
Looking to go long breaking above $75
$amd Daily=Looking for a move to the .236 fib extentsion tomorrow to 109.76
-In $amd $108 9/17 lotte for .50
$KLIC $KLIC BOOM!?: Running w/ the semisSMH hitting a nice pivot today, most names look like they have blue sky territory like NVDA, MXL, ASML and now possibly KLIC? Sitting in the mid cap range, the market could see this semiconductor as the sweet spot given the Fed rate environment
ES - Channel Surfing 2hr - NQ YM RTY SOXS TQQQ TLT ZN ZB ARKKFriday's WRR was symptomatic of how the Order Book and Market @ depth can be
rung like a Bell - Every stop was smoked.
We held 493s @ 12 after peeling off the same ahead of Thursday. A solid and comfortable
buffer of 8 Handles giving us a 501 B/E - Stop was 96, the reaction level and prior PO.
Wrecked in minutes, All positions took the poker, hot.
NQ was the leader into Thursday close, making a lower low on the Hourly, while finishing
Friday @ new ATHs. The only trade taken in NQ was the initial higher high @ 428 to 390 on
80 MNQ scaled in from 426. This Sell became the fuel for the next stop run higher. Retail
Traders entered and reentered the Sell all day only to be crushed under the Futures bid.
The Semis bid took SOXS to new lows, ending our position on Stop - our largest loser in
17 months.
TQQQ stopped .38 below entry. TLT ZN ZB closed @ 0.12%+ ARKK Stopped at ~ Entry and on
and on it goes... stop stop stop run. 1st losing day in 17 days and a large loss on SMH's.
______________________________________________________________________________
ES Chart illustrates the higher targets - and lower 4441/4444 Support - 80 Handle range.
What it does not show is the following - Market on Close orders were followed on in
Globex - the Sell imbalances... were immense.
Perhaps those in the know, knew the Drone Strike retaliation was on Deck.
It is clear we are in a Large topping process, with stop run after stop run the tool in trade.
Where this terminates now is a WAG.
The very moment everything lines up in a large SELL, the rescue operation doubles down
and makes New ATHs on expanding divergences.
Frustrating in the extreme as it requires very large drawdowns, unacceptable drawdowns
on Capital.
Hedging DEC SELLs with SEP Bids Intra-Day has worked, although the Risks in continuing this
balance is so extreme, we are going to remain in CASH with an extreme negative position
structure.
SOXS - Thank you We began entries today, given the degenerate squeeze brought to us by
FED wingmen Black Rock and VanGuard.
We'll embrace the .382 level when it trades, even should it fall short in
the 18s, it's 200% off the Wall.
A close over 6.98 will see further additions.
Out first adventure came off an average of 6.12 :)
Hunt, Kill - Profit.
xoxo - Hunter Killer
SOXS - Lower Fills to Gap @ .382We have placed out orders from 7.00 Inversely to 6.00.
.382 will provide first in the series.
We are closely watching the VIX Reaction @ 19.80.
At the moment we've seen a 2 Tick Front Run.
In the next 2 days, the Indices will reverse.
- HK
$SMH Flirting with Danger Zone w/ Implications for the MarketSMH has been a clear leadership area in the market. But the ETF is flirting with a technical breakout failure on a large timeframe.
Of such things big tops are potentially made. This gives the broad market a yellow-light status.
SOXS - Hopefully you joined the BIDFollowers know we nailed the LOWS and indicated a LARGE BUY SIDE
Program that remains in trade.
Higher targets well above, dead ahead.
QQQ - 363 the Level for breakdownClose under 363 on 3XQ's and the reversal will be fulfilled.
Targets below are significantly lower/
SMH may try to make up some ground on a FAB Funding for USA.
Short lived BS Noise.
ES has trade sub 4441, should it close beneath, we have
a confirmed reversal.
VIX has a Micro target today of 20.55 for SEP CT.
TLT will complete Gap Fills.
DX remains stubbornly tight 92 - 93.
Energy Complex seeing Crude Oil in 57-62 range after RTs complete.
6501 held for now, we closed SELLs in heavy position from 6956.
Now it's a waiting game on War Drums.
SOXS - .382 Test Ahead - winner winner chicken dinner SMH FailNice trade setup here.
Enjoy the Ride.
More Coming, buying all retraces.
Higher Targets Ahead.
Semis cooked on Trade.
SOXS - .382 Test Ahead @ 18.72200% Upside here.
Large Volume on Lows.
Panic reversal has setup.
NQ will be the first to fail on Inflation Trade.
FED told us so this week and last.
Digi $'s come home to roost a bit.
Hot CPI assures a D U N K in time, as CON.fidence in BTD
begins to fail.
Volumes at extremes, Divergences at extremes, Valuations at extremes.
Correction ahead for NQ/TECH/SMH as Semis see Geopolitical Risk.
SMH - To short or to press - This is the Question..Top of the ascending channel.. Doesn't mean it won't overshoot but I like the probability here..
(Opinion Only)
Micron internals improvingTechnical Analysis
From the beginning of May, MU has been kept in a range; however:
RSI has been making higher lows where price has been retreating at the same support level.
OBV is confirming the uptrend in volume within the consolidation range.
These two bullet points support a bullish case for MU.
Trade analysis
I expect MU will try to test the roof of the consolidation range at $85.5 approximately; after, a re-test of the 50sma as support could signal a potential buy.
TSM breakout + measured move The chart shows a descending triangle, with a breakout.
The breakout yesterday and today, have been on strong intraday volume.
A measured move can be made by adding the height from the double bottom (purple circles), to the area of the breakout. Using the green arrows to represent the potential move, which takes us to $152 approximately. Which is coincident with the extended move of the fibonacci retracement lines at 61.8%.
$135 and $142 are potential resistance zones, where we could see some profit taking.
$AMD Breakout Hasn't Even Started YetThe chart speaks for itself. Since Su assumed the helm of $AMD the price movement has been predictable. Long periods of consolidation followed by breakouts and long term uptrends. Will the pattern play out again? I believe so. I started a position at $84, added to it above the mid channel around $87 and I'll be looking to fill my position at a close above resistance around $97. Thoughts?
$NVDA Bearish candlesticks pattern targeting 650 620Shooting star or big doji its bearish pattern on daily candles - Bearish signal can be triggered below 720 - Overbought indicators - Expected Split at 20 Jul so its risky trade to short prior to the split process but technically its overbought and can be corrected to the level of previous major breakout levels. cancel short idea above ATH Only!
Which camp are you in? SPY based off of Elliot Wave TheoryBased on the Elliot Wave theory, there are three things that I think ya'll should check out. We are close to a correction but one of them is a two year bear market and the other is a 2-3 month correction before the next impulse wave to the upside. If you guys don't know anything about Elliot Wave theory, I highly recommend reading up on it. There are rules that must be followed but its pretty simple once you study it for a couple of days. Anyways if we sit below 320 on the SPY, we are in for a melt down that basically back tracks to March 2020 lows. If we bounce from 360, we're in for a big ride up to all new highs (SPY 500). But...that maybe the last leg of a real bull market that started in the 1990s (the beginning of digital age).
The question is what camp am I in? I think the Fed wants inflation. And I think there is inflation. I literally paid close to $80 for 15lbs of Brisket at Costco when it used to be $35 a year ago. Chicken just got really expensive too. Cost of food is up. I think the Fed wants to raise interest rates. The Fed knows it doesn't have ammunition to soften the blow when a true problem erupts e.g. 2008 crash. With Fed Funds rate at 0, there is no room for mistakes. So my answer is we are in for a big pull back down to 320 but less steep like 2020 and the start of the big correction ABC like 2003 - 2008.
Which camp are you in? What are your thoughts? Please like and share.
