SOX, SMH needs to hold hereTheres a saying that SEMIs lead the market. $SMH finally broke an upper band trendline that took alot of work to do because of very little volume. Its tired and wants to rest. This is an important test but bids need to come back. Will June be the month when buyers pile back in? My gut tells me we hit 252 this week then break down again or at least stay above the band. Stocks that had great earnings but got slaughtered will do well. $SMH will be range bound till July earnings.
SMH
AMD will not disappoint, 93.75 TGTAs I previously mentioned on my SQ analysis, Semis have been hit hard regardless of great earnings. With semis currently oversold, I see semis run up for the next two weeks along with the likes of AMAT, TSM, QCOM, NVDA, ON, and IIVI. AMD beat earnings and has been taking INTC customers for the past 2 years. INTC is in panic mode trying to regain back their market share. AMD server/pc chips are faster and much reliable and cheaper. Semi shortages is an issue but with current earnings handily beat expectations, I don't see this as an issue moving forward as demand outweighs shortages. See EBAY, StockX, and FB markets for GPUs and CPUs. People still buy them at over 200% retail. China, Taiwan, US coming out of Covid pandemic, ramps up chip production in Q2. A bullish Doji on Friday with good volume. Shorts will get squeezed out at 83.52.
SQ classic ABCD pattern with strong earnings will test 275 againSQ has been hammered along with the rest of tech/semi/fintech for the past 2 weeks. With IWM classic bounce off upward trend line with volume and SOXX reversal due to oversold conditions, I can see tech and semi bounce this week for a bull run back to highs. Energy money will flow back to tech while it rests due to overbought conditions and job numbers being abysmal this past Friday. Be cautious of Dow and S&P, it needs to rest but not get sold to maintain uptrend.
$SMH Tests Trendline Support as Chip Demand BoomsSMH is at an interesting juncture. The world will be defined by chips. Demand is soaring. Supply will eventually catch up. This pattern is typically part of a continuation in a trend. But it needs to continue to hold the trend to capitalize on the A-T breakout to come.
AMAT LongAMAT has been stair-stepping higher in a bull trend lately. In my opinion AMAT has been a leader in one of the stronger industry groups within tech (semiconductor equipment). Yesterday it printed an inverted hammer after failing to make a significant push below the previous low on 4/19. This is the line in the sand. Today it opened near those lows but pushed higher and out of the short-term downtrend on impressive volume. It has consistently found buyers at the 20-day EMA (see arrows) - this area has regularly been a great spot to initiate a long. Today represents a low-risk entry with a stop at the previous day's low (red dotted line).
SMH: Not Smart to Long Semiconductor Index Right NowIt is not a smart decision to open long positions in the semiconductor sector right now (TSM, NVDA, ASML, INTC, AAMT, AMD... etc).
As the chart show, the overall performance on SMH is still on the downside trend, blocked by the resistance line on the necklace of the head-shoulder pattern.
But it doesn't mean that it is time to short the semiconductor sector, it is better to stay neutral and see if we have the chance to buy the cheap chip in around 200 USD.
If the market wouldn't give us the chance to buy in deep, then we can try to create the new positions again when SMH breaks through the resistance and goes with a new uptrend.
STX Insider Selling of $86 Million Coupled with Potential H&S Insider selling of $86 Million final three days of December.
I anticipate an attempt at regaining $63 on Monday by this one and this is where I plan to initiate a short position by using February or March Puts.
Disclaimer: Not trading advice.
STX
AMD priming Basing here nicely as long as it holds above 74 it remains bull bias. Weekly view here needs close over 86. AMD just released its new GPU's which look promising and can compete against $nvda new RTX 3000's series GPU's. I will be curious to see if they can have adequate supply for the demand, something $nvda has failed at with its new GPU's. 88.71 94.28(ATH) are my next areas of interest must hold above 74.
Teradyne - Cup & Handle + Measured MoveTeradyne made a cup & handle, which continues to see strength.
Cup & Handle -- Measured Move
Making a measured move from the floor of the cup, to the resistance which was all time highs, we get a 18 points (12% aprox.) potential move.
Trade
Would follow the 5sma (green line) to take profits for 50% of my position, the other 50% if it takes the Resistance 1 level.
There are also other semiconductors making ATH, which is adding to the strength in the industry overall.
SMH Existing Long Position (Wave 5 Bullish)Updates on existing Long position on SMH from last week that have moved in the money. SMH is unfolding into wave 5 that could reach 190-195. The key is to stretch existing profits on SMH with the daily chart that shows SMH terminal wave 5 rally is in progress.