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SMH

SMH Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: when price clears 151.71 Volume: with daily volume greater than 13.30M Target: 167 area Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; 146.62 gets you 3/1 Risk/Reward. This swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by tradepatiently
1
SMH Update (daily chart)SMH recently peaked at 151.71 on May 30, leaving behind two gaps for potential fill in an area of low volume (yellow volume profile highlight). I am expecting a selloff into the gap areas, which also are at key fib levels. 5/30: peak = 151.71 143.89 = 76% fib (Touched today, and 5.2% off peak) 139.05 = 61.8% fib ( 8.3% off peak) 135.14 = 50% fib (10.9% off peak) The volume profile is based on quarter to date activity, March - today, June 5. I do not expect a bounce off today's low, the 61.8 % or 50% fib areas look more realistic to me.
NASDAQ:SMH
by UnknownUnicorn13101
SMH NVDA SPY & QQQ | Long Term Outlook Resistance Guide- SMH weaker than QQQ today potentially setting daily lower high but bears need more follow through at the moment - NVDA still potential 4h head and shoulders pattern if we confirm more downside - SPY very nearing 0.618 fib resistance we saw some money rotate from tech into SPY in the last two days making breath better - QQQ bull flag confirm still super strong every trend is healthy no closed just at the golden pocket resistance. Most likely scenario is weekly consolidation in the next coming weeks.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by ArcadiaTrading
SMH Weekly Update (post split)I'm updating my prior SMH weekly chart, since we had a 2 for 1 split in SMH last week and it totally messed my chart up. Key points (dates are all weekly): 3/27: 131.79 (most recent peak) 4/24: 118.57 ( most recent low) -10.03% off the peak 5/1 close: 124.38 -5.6% off the peak Gann confluence line 1: 121.71 -7.6% off peak Gann confluence line 2: 114.46 -13.1% off peak The green trend lines indicate an apex forming right along the Gann rays (salmon colored lines) suggesting a directional resolution is near. After extending to the purple point D, which is almost a 1.218 Gartley extension, support appears to be holding at the 121.71 Gann Confluence support line. This line is also the top ridge of the Ichimoku cloud which can also serve as support. Should SMH rise off this support, then we would have had a 7.6% correction off the most recent high. Should current support break down, we would see a target of Gann support 2 which is 114.46, or 13.1% off most recent peak. Pros for upside breakout: A possible rate cut currently being predicted by SOFR futures as early as June or July. Banking turmoil could also call for a pause or cut. A reduction in rates would also signal easier monetary conditions which would benefit growth oriented stocks for a near term spike. Pros for a breakdown: Further hawkishness in the FED, combined with Bank Solvency fears. Seasonality: from 2004 to 2023 the SMH has finished the month of June higher only 42% of the time, the worst month in the year. Observation: The 12 month RSI, while positive at 57.16, is declining from a near term double top, and showing some weakness in trend. I would watch for continuing weakness in SMH momentum on the daily chart, as well as the breadth inside the SMH holdings. You can do this with flipcharts on the Barchart.com site. Presently, while I see a few stalwarts, I am also seeing a lot of breakdowns inside the SMH ETF. For example, MCHP, a very well run company with solid financials, just reported good earnings beats, yet it sank below its 200 day MA and has a weak daily RSI(9) of 42.11. Personally, I would not long any semiconductors until late summer and signs of turmoil have resolved.
NASDAQ:SMH
by UnknownUnicorn13101
SMH Semiconductors update (weekly) Key areas to watch Semiconductors finally showing some topping pattern, amidst topping RSI (12) that failed to reach the high 70 channel and a shrinking trend of volume. In effect, weakening momentum. The first level is 244.71, which is a Gann confluence and also a prior pivot (left yellow circle), and is a 7.1% decline off the most recent peak of 263.57. This would take it to the top of the red cloud which could serve as some support. The second level to watch is 229.18 (right yellow circle) , which is another Gann Confluence, and also a prior pivot, which would be 13.04% off the peak of 263.57. This would take SMH well into the cloud, which could create some future resistance. Seasonality is at play, so I would expect a rebound in late summer, although there are many factors which could disrupt any projections any farther out and I do not feel worth making now.
NASDAQ:SMH
by UnknownUnicorn13101
NVDA Future Long Term Outlook | $QQQ | Bank Earnings kick off- NASDAQ:NVDA shaping up a H&S bearish pattern on daily time frame - NASDAQ:SMH / SOXX semi sector relatively weaker than NASDAQ:QQQ & $NASDAQ. that's why im still holding onto SOXS - When lead bull sectors starts to turn into more bearish we have to be careful with the other sectors. So far it is showing relative weakness but not too big of a divergence yet. - Bank earnings will not directly effect QQQ and SMH but will indirectly effect sentiment and if SPY drops a lot so will tech stocks and vice versa.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by ArcadiaTrading
CPI Data | FOMC Minutes | $QQQ tightening Range- Fed minutes Wed 2pm EST - CPI Wed 530 EST - PPI Thursday 530 EST - added initial positions for AMEX:SOXS looking to add more if we get flat or lower CPI data then 5.1%. shorting the NASDAQ:SMH / NASDAQ:SOXX sector. - we have been tightening up in an equilibrium since last Wednesday will very likely break tomorrow. - NASDAQ:QQQ / AMEX:SPY will be using stair stepping candles as a guide to how to trade when data is release.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ArcadiaTrading