Opening (IRA): SMH August 19th 150 Short Put... for a 1.54 credit.
Comments: Adding another unit of semiconductors here (IVR/IV 72/47) in weakness/higher IV, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit in the August monthly (the weeklies aren't all that liquid). Still have the August 19th 175's on.
SMH
Opening (IRA): SMH August 19th 175 Short Put... for a 1.76 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike in the August monthly (53 DTE) paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Adding a smidge of long delta back into my portfolio to keep my net delta happy using an ETF that is closely correlated with the broad market (SPY 3-month correlation of .92) instead of cluttering up my IWM, QQQ, and SPY short put ladders further.
Other ETF's to do this with: XLK (.97 3-month correlation), EFA (.90).
Draw Downs - $15 TrillionMust be a bottom.
The largest drawdown in history.
Yeah, bullish for certain.
Bonds losing their collective Sh_t.
Bullish.
Money Heaven for the 711 WeBull, CoinBase,
and Hoodies got plugged. Ma n' Pa - plugged.
Apes... defeated, WSW aka Wall Street Wins
is the new Reddit hashtag.
Opening: SMH June 17th 198/270 Short Strangle... for a 5.55 credit.
Comments: High IVR/high IV (80/46). Selling the 15 delta strikes on both sides. 5.55 credit on buying power effect of 23.58; 23.5% ROC as a function of buying power effect at max; 11.8% ROC at 50% max. As usual, will look to take profit at 50% max and/or manage sides on approaching worthless/side test.
5/4/22 AMD Advanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: 161.076B
Current Price: $99.42
Breakout price: $100.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $97.85-$84.75
Price Target: $113.80-$117.60 (1st), $138.30-$141.40 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 20-21d (1st), 38-40d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $AMD 5/20/22 100c, $AMD 6/17/22 110c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.41/contract, $3.45/contract
4/24/22 SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SMH )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $234.73
Breakdown price (hold below): $237.35
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $241.85-$261.90
Price Target: $206.40-$204.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 67-72d
Contract of Interest: $SMH 6/17/22 200p
Trade price as of publish date: $4.35/contract
TSM will breach support and continue lowerThere is no better crystal ball to predict the future performance of an asset than its own chart.
Keeping it simple, TSM broke bellow a 15-month lateral range, and several days later failed to reconquer the lost grounds. It's been under distribution, and the last candle is the most bearish.
TSM won't be able to hold at support and will continue lower.
4/17/22 AMATApplied Materials, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMAT )
Sector: Producer Manufacturing (Industrial Machinery)
Market Capitalization: 100.142B
Current Price: $113.36
Breakdown price: $114.50
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $125.60-$136.95
Price Target: $97.20-$94.80 (4th)
Estimated Duration to Target: 40-44d (4th)
Contract of Interest: $AMAT 5/20/22 110p
Trade price as of publish date: $4.95/contract
Semiconductors PullbackAMD Daily Double Bolligerband Algorithm switching to a Sell-Short as the Semiconductors continue to show weakness over the past couple of weeks. This pull back has broke below a triple bottom. The next gap below is down at $78. I do not believe this will fill unless the S&P 500 futures fills the gap at 4000
Opening: SMH May 20th 215/280 Short Strangle... for a 5.30 credit.
Comments: Selling some nondirectional premium in semiconductors (implied volatility rank 60/30-day 41.2%) in the May monthly (42 days 'til expiry). 5.30 on buying power effect of 24.94 (on margin); 21.3% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect; 10.6% at 50% max.
3/27/22 GFSGlobalFoundries Inc. ( NASDAQ:GFS )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: $42.208B
Current Price: $78.94
Breakout Price (hold above): $77.05
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $74.35-$67.40
Price Target: $90.20-$91.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 40-43d
Contract of Interest: $GFS 5/20/22 80c
Trade price as of publish date: $7.80/contract
3/27/22 MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRVL )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: $63.051B
Current Price: $74.37
Breakout Price: $75.15
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $71.80-$65.10
Price Target: $79.80-$80.80 (1st), $86.20-$88.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 30-32d (1st), 58-62d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $MRVL 4/14/22 75c, $MRVL 5/20/22 80c,
Trade price as of publish date: $2.80/contract, $3.05/contract
3/27/22 NVDANVDA Corporation ( NASDAQ:NVDA )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: $695.069B
Current Price: $276.92
Breakout price: $283.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $261.80-$240.50
Price Target: $314.80-$316.90
Estimated Duration to Target: 54-62d
Contract of Interest: $NVDA 5/20/22 300c
Trade price as of publish date: $11.65/contract
$AMD Semis need to lead for bullsThe bull case is still in play as AMD although down considerably from 165 high , is still holding strong support at 100 and currently trading above its 200MA
AMD has been building next level of support at 113 with a recent thrust to 124, which makes sense considering the 200MA is a VERY important level for the bulls and bears alike.
So long as AMD holds 100 , and continues to find buyers 113 zone, my bias is for a breakout of this downward channel to the upside.
A break below and there will be bigger issues , i.e. I'd imagine this will only happen if the market is down considerably from a catalyst event (although inflation, rates, war, supply chain issues, all have yet to cause a mass liquidation so I'm not sure what will... Nuclear War ? I pray not )
I do know for sure that any melt up that does occur, I would be looking at AMD / NVDA / SMH / MU to be strong movers to the upside.
Let's see ! I'm long April calls and will add so long as we hold 100