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Mastering Inverse Fair Value Gaps (IFVG) - How to use them?In this guide, I’ll explain the concept of the Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG), how it forms, and how you can use it to identify high-probability trading opportunities. You'll learn how to spot the IFVG on a chart, understand their significance in price action, and apply a simple strategy to trade them effectively. What will be discussed? - What is a FVG - What is an IFVG - What is a bullish IFVG - What is a bearish IFVG - How to trade the IFVG ------------------------------- What is a FVG? A FVG is a technical concept used by traders to identify inefficiencies in price movement on a chart. The idea behind a fair value gap is that during periods of strong momentum, price can move so quickly that it leaves behind a "gap" where not all buy and sell orders were able to be executed efficiently. This gap creates an imbalance in the market, which price may later revisit in an attempt to rebalance supply and demand. A fair value gap is typically observed within a sequence of three candles (or bars). The first candle marks the beginning of a strong move. The second candle shows a significant directional push, either bullish or bearish, often with a long body indicating strong momentum. The third candle continues in the direction of the move, opening and closing beyond the range of the first candle. The fair value gap itself is defined by the price range between the high of the first candle and the low of the third candle (in the case of a bullish move), or between the low of the first candle and the high of the third (in a bearish move). This range represents the area of imbalance or inefficiency. ------------------------------- What is an IFVG? An Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG) occurs when a traditional Fair Value Gap (FVG) is not respected by price, and instead of acting as a support or resistance zone, price breaks through it with strength. Normally, a Fair Value Gap represents a price imbalance left by a strong move, and when price returns to this area, it often reacts by respecting the gap, bouncing off it or reversing, because it's seen as a high-probability level where orders may rest. However, in the case of an IFVG, price does not respect this imbalance. Instead, it slices through the FVG in the opposite direction, showing that the initial momentum behind the imbalance has weakened or reversed. This breach is a strong indication that market sentiment is shifting. What was once a zone of strength now becomes invalid, and this failed reaction signals that the opposite side of the market (buyers or sellers) has taken control. The IFVG highlights a key transition in momentum. It tells traders that the prior bias, bullish or bearish, is breaking down, and the new dominant force is pushing price beyond levels that would typically hold. This makes the IFVG useful not only as a sign of failed structure but also as a potential confirmation of a trend reversal or strong continuation in the opposite direction. Essentially, where an FVG usually acts as a wall, an IFVG is what’s left after that wall gets knocked down. ------------------------------- What is a bullish IFVG? A bullish Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG) occurs when price breaks through a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) instead of respecting it. In a typical bearish FVG, the expectation is that when price retraces into the gap, it will react to the imbalance, usually by reversing lower, as the area represents previous selling pressure or inefficiency caused by aggressive sellers. However, when price does not react bearishly and instead breaks cleanly through the bearish FVG, it signals a shift in market sentiment and momentum. This breakout through the imbalance suggests that buyers are now in control and that the bearish pressure in that zone has been absorbed or invalidated. What was once considered a resistance area is now being overpowered, often leading to continued bullish movement. ------------------------------- What is a bearish IFVG? A bearish Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG) occurs when price breaks through a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) instead of respecting it. In a normal bullish FVG, the expectation is that when price returns to the gap, it will act as support and prompt a move higher, as this area represents a previous imbalance created by strong buying pressure. However, when price fails to respect the bullish FVG and instead breaks down through it, this signals a shift in momentum to the downside. The anticipated support fails to hold, suggesting that buyers are no longer in control or that their efforts have been overwhelmed by aggressive selling. This kind of move transforms the bullish FVG into a bearish signal, as it confirms weakness in what was previously considered a demand zone. ------------------------------- How to trade the IFVG? Trading the Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG) requires patience, precision, and clear confirmation of a shift in momentum. The process involves waiting for key conditions to form before entering a trade. Here's how to approach it step-by-step: First, you need to wait for a liquidity sweep. This means price must take out a recent high or low, typically a short-term liquidity pool, trapping traders on the wrong side of the market. This sweep sets the stage for a potential reversal and indicates that the market is ready to shift direction. After the liquidity sweep, watch for a 1-minute Fair Value Gap (FVG) to form and then get broken in the opposite direction. This break is crucial, it’s what creates the Inverse Fair Value Gap. The invalidation of this initial FVG confirms that momentum has switched and that the market is no longer respecting the previous imbalance. Once the IFVG has formed, your entry comes on the close of the candle that breaks and closes beyond the IFVG, above it in a bullish scenario, or below it in a bearish one. This close confirms that the gap has not held and that price is likely to continue in the new direction. Place your stop loss below the low (for a bullish setup) or above the high (for a bearish setup) of the structure that formed the IFVG. This gives you protection just beyond the level that would invalidate the setup. ------------------------------- Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
Education
by Youriverse
54
Bitcoin - Will it explode up or down?Introduction Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, forming a series of higher lows and lower highs. This price action indicates a tightening range as the market approaches the apex of the triangle. A breakout is becoming increasingly likely in the coming days, and traders are now watching closely to see which direction BTC will choose. Will it break to the upside or the downside? Pattern Trading The symmetrical triangle has been a consistent feature of BTC’s recent price action. Price has been oscillating between the descending resistance and ascending support trendlines, gradually compressing the range. Based on the current structure, Bitcoin could continue moving within this pattern until around June 26th, when the triangle becomes extremely narrow and a breakout becomes imminent. Historically, such setups can produce false breakouts or “fake-outs,” where the price temporarily moves in one direction before sharply reversing and breaking out in the opposite direction. These moves often trap traders who enter too early, so caution is advised. Market manipulation is not uncommon in these tight formations, making it essential to wait for confirmation before entering a position. 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) Bitcoin has recently filled a 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG), a zone that often attracts price due to inefficiencies in the market. Now that this gap has been filled, there could be increased selling pressure, potentially pushing BTC back down toward the lower boundary of the triangle. If BTC is unable to break through the resistance created by this FVG, we may see more bearish momentum. However, should BTC manage to break and hold above this imbalance zone, it would be a strong sign of bullish intent and could open the door for a move to the upside. For now, though, this area remains a significant resistance level. Upside Target If BTC manages to break out of the triangle to the upside with strong volume and confirmation, the first major resistance level is around $109,000. This would be a logical target for bulls, as it represents a key zone of liquidity and previous interest. A successful move toward this level would confirm the bullish breakout and could set the stage for further gains, depending on broader market sentiment. Downside Targets Conversely, if BTC breaks below the lower trendline of the triangle, the first area to watch is around $103,500. This level is where a significant amount of liquidity has built up, and it could act as initial support. However, if that level fails to hold, the next key psychological level to watch would be $100,000. A drop below this milestone could trigger panic selling and further downside, especially if market sentiment turns negative. Conclusion At this point, BTC is at a critical juncture, and traders should remain patient as the market decides its next direction. While the current rejection from the 4H FVG suggests some short-term bearish pressure, the overall pattern remains neutral until a confirmed breakout occurs. Trading within the triangle can be risky due to the possibility of fake-outs, so it’s best to wait for clear confirmation before committing to a trade. Stay cautious, manage your risk carefully, and prepare for volatility as Bitcoin approaches a decisive move. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
TRADENATION:BTCUSD
by Youriverse
22
GBP/USD - SMT with EUR/USD, SHORTExcited to share my first idea with you guys ! To start with, my name is Soulayman and have started my trading journey in October 2024. It was very hard at first, but after hard work and dedication we all know we can make it happen. I basically studied ICT concepts, and was able to integrate those into a system that I have built myself ( this is what every trader should do in my opinion, it will make you understand better ). And that is why I am here today on Trading View, sharing my first ever idea with you guys ! I'll make it very simple , no extravagant analysis or super complicated trendlines all over the place ... =D This is what I see : 1 - GBP/USD potentially forming a SMT with EUR/USD after sweeping London High located inside a fair value gap (which makes this play stronger) 2- After the sweep occurs, I will be waiting on a 5 MINUTE break of structure (since 1 min break outs are manipulation most of the times so i prefer to stay safe). If this is followed by a fair value gap, it reinforces our idea showing the market has intent to push price lower. 3 - Now , let's talk about the HIGH TIME FRAME structure (4H) clearly shows the price wants to sell and that it is targeting Sellside liquidity Equal Lows. We could than anticipate a reversal from there. We currently have price pulling back towards the HTF FVG, failed to close above the most recent high and having bearish reaction. Since everything aligns with our BIAS, we will let it play out and wait on the sweep ! I will be posting updates during the day =D Stay tuned ! Talk to you guys soon !
Short
by cyw_chartyourway
1
BULLS VS BEARS. WILL GOLD MATCH THE ATH?Glossary: Ged = Bearish scenario Green = Bullish scenario POI = Point of interest ATH = All time high LQ = Liquidity zone Gold since the beginning has been moving in a range and break fashion you'll see this across the board, always. A 4hr range is in the process of being formed ideally what wed like to see is for the high to be matched first. That simply would give more confidence for the bears to get in and short the market however now we sit with the though of where will it go first? preferred bias Buys to sell, ideally and the most logical outcome is the highs do get matched forming a strong liquidity zone that can be targeted at a future date, as price begins to fall new points of interest can then be formed (since there isn't a lot to target above right now), this will allow the market to have areas it can market when we see the bullish side of this range play out when ever that may be. Structure Current structure allows you to get in trades, previous structure allows you to get out of trades use it to your advantage, think. where does the money want to move next where will the banks get the best bang for their buck and most importantly where can we cause traders to LOSE, a trade you win is a trade someone else lost. so long you stick with where the big guys want to go you'll be on the right side Bullish bias (green) Key points get broken, imbalance fill, ATH matched (this is where short orders get stacked, future sweep target. Bearish bias (red) Area 1, this is the first key low im looking to break if we see a candle close below continue to area 2, there are traders who WILL get stopped out at zone 1 Area 2, this is our next key point in structure there will still be traders with open positions here also, again if we see a candle close below this zone continue to monitor for Area 3 Area 3, this may be a final target, however there's still POI's sat below if price shows strong signs of bearish momentum target Areas 4 and below can be open for discussion Conclusion personally i would like to see POI's built on the buy side as of right now before we move down simply because the market NEEDS somewhere to move from and to without that it would be erratic. If you found this helpful be sure to boost this idea, give a like and a follow, consistent charts will be posted on a weekly basis and let me know what you think down in the comment section too :)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MisterGBP
BULLS VS BEARS WILL GOLD MATCH ATH?Glossary: Ged = Bearish scenario Green = Bullish scenario POI = Point of interest ATH = All time high LQ = Liquidity zone Gold since the beginning has been moving in a range and break fashion you'll see this across the board, always. A 4hr range is in the process of being formed ideally what wed like to see is for the high to be matched first. That simply would give more confidence for the bears to get in and short the market however now we sit with the though of where will it go first? preferred bias Buys to sell, ideally and the most logical outcome is the highs do get matched forming a strong liquidity zone that can be targeted at a future date, as price begins to fall new points of interest can then be formed (since there isn't a lot to target above right now), this will allow the market to have areas it can market when we see the bullish side of this range play out when ever that may be. Structure Current structure allows you to get in trades, previous structure allows you to get out of trades use it to your advantage, think. where does the money want to move next where will the banks get the best bang for their buck and most importantly where can we cause traders to LOSE, a trade you win is a trade someone else lost. so long you stick with where the big guys want to go you'll be on the right side Bullish bias (green) Key points get broken, imbalance fill, ATH matched (this is where short orders get stacked, future sweep target. Bearish bias (red) Area 1 , this is the first key low im looking to break if we see a candle close below continue to area 2, there are traders who WILL get stopped out at zone 1 Area 2 , this is our next key point in structure there will still be traders with open positions here also, again if we see a candle close below this zone continue to monitor for Area 3 Area 3, this may be a final target, however there's still POI's sat below if price shows strong signs of bearish momentum target Areas 4 and below can be open for discussion Conclusion personally i would like to see POI's built on the buy side as of right now before we move down simply because the market NEEDS somewhere to move from and to without that it would be erratic. If you found this helpful be sure to boost this idea, give a like and a follow, consistent charts will be posted on a weekly basis and let me know what you think down in the comment section too :)
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MisterGBP
BULLS VS BEARS ? BEARS.gold moves in a simple pattern range then break. ALL THE TIME pair that with injected money and liquidity targets you grant yourself the perfect area to get in and out building upon the set ups looked at yesterday the bearish outcome is playing out well this shows the importance of always having 2 scenarios not to play both sides. but to simply be able to pivot when the market does aswell looking for a re entry off the first long position if gold shows signs of wanting to create a text book example of a supply and demand zone
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by MisterGBP
XAU/USD BUYthis idea stems from simple SMT concepts price will move the POI's ( this is money sat in the market either by traders= liquidity or money being injected = imbalances. by following these 2 areas you'll be able to gauge where price needs to go based off of structure. Structure is where people got in lower highs traders get in, double top or bottom traders get in and you'll always see the market come back to these places, where they get in that's where we want to get out i see gold running higher than where we currently are with a final take profit marked at 3439 before price moves remember it needs a POI to move from
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by MisterGBP
BULLS VS BEARS GOLD2 possible scenarios could be playing out on gold as of right now. a 15 minute range has formed giving liquidity on both sides wait the market out see what it tells you to do and not what you want to do liquid highs have been taken price may take the lows before us seeing a continuation on the flip side lows may be taken if bullish structure breaks look for shorts if we hold bullish structure continue long THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY TRADES YOU TAKE
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by MisterGBP
2
What Is SMT Divergence, and How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is SMT Divergence, and How Can You Use It in Trading? SMT divergence, or Smart Money Technique divergence, is a concept used by traders to analyse imbalances in correlated markets. By identifying when price movements deviate between related instruments, traders can uncover potential shifts in market momentum, often linked to institutional activity. This article explores what SMT divergence is, how SMT divergence trading works, and its practical applications. What Is SMT Divergence? SMT divergence, short for Smart Money Technique divergence, refers to a specific type of price discrepancy between two correlated financial instruments. Part of the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology, this divergence is often interpreted as a sign of institutional or "smart money" activity, as it highlights potential inefficiencies or imbalances in the market. Here’s how an ICT SMT divergence works: correlated instruments—like EUR/USD and GBP/USD in forex, or major stock indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ—typically move in the same direction under normal market conditions. SMT divergence occurs when one instrument makes a higher high or lower low, while the other fails to follow suit. This inconsistency suggests that buying or selling pressure may be uneven across these markets, often caused by larger market participants adjusting their positions. For example, if EUR/USD forms a new high, while GBP/USD lags behind and fails to break its previous high. This divergence could indicate waning momentum in one pair, hinting at a potential reversal or shift in the overall market structure. Traders analysing SMT divergence often see these moments as key opportunities to assess whether institutional players might be involved. To identify an SMT divergence, you can monitor two correlated assets’ charts and observe discrepancies. Also, there are SMT divergence indicators for MT4, MT5, and TradingView available online that can automate the process. The Core Components of SMT Divergence SMT divergence relies on three key components: correlated instruments, divergence between price movements, and the involvement of institutional players. Understanding these elements is crucial for applying this concept. 1. Correlated Instruments At the heart of SMT divergence is the relationship between correlated markets. These are instruments that typically move in tandem due to shared economic drivers. For instance, in forex, pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD often exhibit similar trends because they’re influenced by the strength of the US dollar, as well as their close regional ties and trade relationships. In equities, indices like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 often align because they reflect broader market sentiment and contain overlapping stocks. 2. Divergence in Price Movements The divergence occurs when these typically correlated instruments fail to move in sync. For example, one instrument may reach a higher high, while the other stalls or even reverses. This mismatch is more than just noise—it can signal a deeper imbalance in the market, often linked to uneven supply and demand dynamics. It’s these price discrepancies that traders scrutinise to identify potential turning points. 3. Institutional Activity One of the reasons SMT divergence is so closely watched is its potential link to smart money behaviour. Institutions often use correlated instruments to mask their actions, creating subtle imbalances that only become apparent through careful analysis. For instance, when one correlated pair lags, it might reflect deliberate accumulation or distribution by larger players. How Traders Analyse SMT Divergence Analysing SMT divergence helps in understanding the nuanced relationship between correlated instruments and interpreting these imbalances correctly. Unlike leading correlations—such as oil influencing the Canadian dollar—SMT divergence doesn’t rely on one asset consistently driving the other. Instead, it focuses on shifts in momentum where neither instrument is the leader, but their combined behaviour hints at potential market moves. Identifying Divergence Traders start by observing price action in two correlated instruments or timeframes. SMT divergence becomes apparent when one instrument forms a higher high or lower low, while the other fails to do so. For example, if EUR/USD makes a higher high, but GBP/USD stalls below its previous peak, this inconsistency could signal fading bullish momentum in the broader market. The key is that neither asset leads; instead, the divergence itself provides the signal. Some common correlations traders use include: - Forex Pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/USD USD/JPY and USD/CHF DXY and USD/CAD - Cryptocurrencies*: BTC/USD and ETH/USD - Equity Indices: S&P 500 and NASDAQ FTSE 100 and DAX - Treasuries: US 10-Year Treasury Yield and USD/JPY - Commodities: Brent Crude and WTI Crude Oil Interpreting Divergence at Extremes SMT divergence is particularly significant when it occurs at market highs or lows. When divergence appears at highs—such as one instrument making a higher high while the other fails—it often signals a potential bearish reversal in the stronger instrument. Conversely, at lows, if one makes a lower low while the other holds firm, it may indicate a potential bullish reversal in the weaker one. This imbalance highlights where momentum might shift. Adding Context Traders rarely rely on an SMT divergence strategy alone. They often look for supporting evidence, such as volume analysis, market structure shifts, or order flow data, to confirm the signal. For instance, divergence combined with signs of institutional selling near a high could strengthen the case for a bearish move. SMT Divergence in Different Market Conditions SMT divergence behaves differently depending on market conditions, offering traders insights that vary between trending and ranging environments. Its effectiveness hinges on the context in which it appears, so understanding how it adapts to different scenarios is key. Trending Markets In trending markets, SMT divergence often signals potential reversals or pauses in momentum. For example, in a strong uptrend, divergence at a new high (where one correlated instrument makes a higher high while the other does not) can indicate waning buying pressure. This inconsistency might suggest that institutional players are beginning to reduce their positions or shift market direction. A similar principle applies in downtrends: divergence at a fresh low, where one instrument breaks lower while the other doesn’t, could signal that bearish momentum is losing steam. Traders often use these moments to reassess their analysis and consider the possibility of a reversal or pullback within the trend. Ranging Markets In a range-bound environment, SMT divergence takes on a different role. Rather than hinting at trend reversals, it often highlights potential breakouts or false moves. For instance, during a consolidation phase, if one correlated instrument makes a sharp move outside the range while the other stays contained, it may signal that the breakout is unsustainable and a reversal back into the range is likely. Alternatively, if both instruments diverge significantly at the edges of the range, it could suggest that smart money is accumulating or distributing positions in preparation for a breakout. Different Asset Classes SMT divergence isn’t limited to one market type. In forex, it often reveals imbalances caused by macroeconomic drivers like central bank policies. In equities, it can signal sector rotation or institutional adjustments. Commodities, particularly oil or gold, may show divergence influenced by supply and demand dynamics. Limitations and Common Misconceptions While SMT divergence is a powerful tool for analysing market imbalances, it’s important to understand its limitations and avoid common misconceptions. Misinterpreting divergence can lead to flawed decisions, especially if it’s viewed in isolation or without proper context. Limitations - False Signals: Not all divergences indicate institutional activity or meaningful shifts in the market. Low liquidity or erratic price movements can create divergence that doesn’t hold significance. - Context Dependency: SMT divergence requires a solid understanding of market conditions. Its reliability decreases in highly volatile or choppy environments where correlations break down temporarily. - Not a Standalone Tool: Relying solely on SMT divergence can be risky. Traders use it alongside other forms of analysis, such as market structure or volume data. Common Misconceptions - Always Linked to Institutional Activity: Not every instance of SMT divergence involves smart money. Divergences can also result from retail trading activity or macroeconomic events. - Predicting Market Direction: SMT divergence doesn’t guarantee outcomes; it highlights imbalances. Further analysis is needed to evaluate whether the market will reverse, continue, or consolidate. - Universal Applicability: While it works across various markets, not all instruments are equally suitable for SMT divergence due to differences in liquidity or drivers. Practical Applications of SMT Divergence SMT divergence is a versatile analytical method that traders use to refine their strategies and deepen their understanding of market dynamics. Here’s how it’s typically applied in practice: Identifying Market Turning Points One of the most common uses of SMT divergence is spotting potential reversals. When divergence appears at key highs or lows, it often signals that momentum is shifting. When combined with other common trading tools, such as support and resistance, as well as ICT methodology concepts like order blocks and fair value gaps, this can be used to time entries or adjust risk exposure. Potentially Enhancing Risk Management SMT divergence can potentially enhance risk management by offering early warnings about changes in market conditions. If divergence aligns with other factors—such as weakening volume or significant resistance/support levels—it can serve as a signal to tighten stops or reduce position sizes, depending on the trader’s broader approach. At the same time, it can also provide clear boundaries for setting stop losses. If a trader has confidence that a reversal in one asset is likely due to an SMT divergence, then a stop loss can be placed immediately after the maximum or minimum of the divergence. The Bottom Line The SMT divergence is a valuable tool for understanding market imbalances and spotting potential turning points. By combining it with other analysis methods, traders can gain deeper insights into price action. FAQ What Does Divergence Mean in Trading? Divergence in trading refers to a mismatch between the price action of an asset and a technical indicator or between two correlated instruments. It often signals a potential change in trend, as the imbalance suggests a shift in market momentum. What Is SMT in Trading? SMT in trading stands for Smart Money Technique. SMT divergence is one of the ICT trading concepts. It focuses on identifying market imbalances that may reflect the activity of institutional traders, seen through divergence between correlated instruments. What Does SMT Divergence Mean? The SMT divergence meaning refers to an occasion when two correlated instruments fail to move in sync. One can make a higher high while the other does not or one can make a lower low while the other doesn’t. This indicates potential smart money involvement and signals a possible trend shift. What Is an Example of SMT Divergence? A common example is in forex, where EUR/USD forms a higher high, but GBP/USD does not. This divergence could suggest fading bullish momentum, signalling a possible reversal in EUR/USD. What Is the Strongest Divergence Indicator? While SMT divergence itself is powerful, traders often combine it with indicators like RSI or volume profiles for added confirmation. The strongest signals come from divergence paired with a broader market context. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
Class A/B RSI Bearish Divergence on SPY Futures?Really posting here to see if anyone would validate this for me but I was looking on the chart and this idea came about. On the weekly chart for ES1!, there seems to be class A or B Bearish Divergence developing on the Weekly timeframe. Listen, of course we all know SPY trends upwards over time but is this an indicator of a larger sell the market needs to go higher every once in a blue moon? This is guarenteed a macro trend and I probably will have to wait a year for this analysis to play out but hey, at least we're here. (***ponders on how I charted Gamestop at $10 but never traded because of lack of knowledge***) Anyways, this is something I will of course monitor but let me highlight instances in history this has happened. Please feel free to give your input on this analysis! Jan 1998 thru Apr 2001 (News Driver: Dot-Com Bubble) Price makes higher highs from Jan 98' thru Mar 00' From Mar 98' thru Mar 00', the 3 peaks formed on the RSI leading to price establishing a lower high (SMT) on Sep 00'. Fails to make new all-time high From Sep 00' to Apr 01' price moves down as much as 30% over the next 224d Jan 2013 thru Feb 2016 Price makes higher highs from Jan 13' thru May 15' From May 13' thru Jun 14', the 3 peaks formed on the RSI leading to price establishing a lower high (SMT) Jul 15' and a following lower high on Nov 15' From Jul 15' to Aug 15' (42d) (News Driver: Lagging China Market) price moves down as much as 14% and as much as 14% on the Nov '15 lower high to Jan 16' (78d) (News Driver: Oil Prices) Current: Jan 24' thru Nov 24' Price has been making higher highs all year From Mar 24' thru , the RSI has been making lower highs while price is making higher highs We are now at a point where price is pushing to go higher but what I would want to see based off of historical data is for price to consolidate or some type of Bearish Turtle Soup forming. If this happens and the RSI returns to Fair Value, we could be in for a sizeable sell of for at least a couple of weeks in the near future. I will come back to this in the next few months. Happy Trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EaszzzyE
Quarterly Theory "QT" Introduction to Quarterly Theory (QT) Time must be divided into quarters for a proper interpretation of market cycles. Combining QT (Quarterly Theory) concepts with basic ICT concepts leads to greater accuracy. Understanding QT allows you to be flexible. It adapts to any trading style as it is universal across all time frames. QT eliminates ambiguity by providing specific time-based reference points to look for when entering trades . THE CYCLE Annual Cycle - 3 quarters each Monthly Cycle - 1 week each Weekly Cycle - 1 day each* Daily Cycle - 6 hours each Session Cycle - 90 minutes each *Monday to Thursday, Friday has its own specific function . Annual Cycle: Q1 JANUARY - MARCH Q2 APRIL - JUNE Q3 JULY - SEPTEMBER Q4 OCT - DECEMBER Monthly Cycle**: Q1 FIRST WEEK Q2 SECOND WEEK Q3 THIRD WEEK Q4 FOURTH WEEK Weekly Cycle*: Q1 MONDAY Q2 TUESDAY Q3 WEDNESDAY Q4 THURSDAY Daily Cycle: Q1 ASIA Q2 LONDON Q3 NEW YORK Q4 AFTERNOON **Monthly Cycle starts with the first full week of the month. *Friday has its own cycle, which is why it is not listed. Q1 indicates the quarters that follow. If Q1 expands, Q2 is likely to consolidate. If Q1 consolidates, Q2 is likely to expand. TRUE OPENS True price opens are the beginning of Q2 in each cycle. It validates key levels. What are the true opens? Yearly: First Monday of April (Q2) Monthly: Second Monday of the month (Q2) Weekly: Second daily candle of the week Daily: Start of the London session (6 hours after the open of the daily candle) Asia - London - NY - Evening: 90 minutes after the open of the 6-hour candle. DIAGRAM: Q1 (A) Accumulation - Consolidation. Q2 (M) Manipulation - Judas Swing (Trade this). Q3 (D) Distribution (Trade this). Q4 (X) Continuation - Reversal of the previous quarter. Q1 (X) Continuation - Reversal of the previous quarter. Q2 (A) Accumulation - Consolidation. Q3 (M) Manipulation - Judas Swing (Trade this). Q4 (D) Distribution (Trade this). ANNUAL CYCLE: MONTHLY CYCLE: WEEKLY CYCLE: DAILY CYCLE:
Education
by Ed_Ale
$COIN - Update: Buy + TPHello Friends, For those of you looking to capitalize on NASDAQ:COIN you may want to add to your position, or start accumulating for the first time. My original post: UPDATED IDEA: NASDAQ:COIN moving nice with CRYPTOCAP:BTC in this 2024-2025 Bull Run! Remember, NASDAQ:COIN basically mimics CRYPTOCAP:BTC so we want to trade them in a similar fashion. As you can see NASDAQ:COIN is still trading below the $368.90 High & the ATH of $429.54. I am expecting those levels to be traded to as CRYPTOCAP:BTC continues higher. The chart showing "Swing Protection TP 1" based on our current swing we left ($283-$149) is giving us a projection of $419.61. That being said, if you wish to add to your NASDAQ:COIN holdings at ~$318 (or lower), you have upside available to take profits. Please note: $429.54 ATH is a good objective. Will NASDAQ:COIN go higher with this bull run? IT all depends on when CRYPTOCAP:BTC tops out - I will update you then or follow along with my CRYPTOCAP:BTC exit strategy... Check out this link for my BTC Exit Strategy :
NASDAQ:COINLong
by WolfAdams
EUR/USD outlook December 24In light of the strong decline that occurred as a result of the Fed news, it is expected to fill this gap that fell more than 150 pips last week. In order for this to happen, the EUR/USD is expected to rebound from the 1.0365 level. This area will be good for the pair to rise to the order block at the 1.04660 level. What confirms this analysis is that there is a strong SMT on the GBPUSD, as it was able to break the low, but the Euro Dollar is still holding and couldn't break it, that's indicates this low is protected.
Long
by David_Easton_EaFxStore6789
Futures Week 47 Monday AnalysisAs I see it the close target of both ES and NQ is the True Month Open. On both of the True Month Open there is a gap from previous Monday in 6h chart. The bullish movement that we had this week is supported by SMT between CME_MINI:ES1! , CME_MINI:NQ1! and CBOT_MINI:YM1! and 6h gap from previous Tuesday (Q2). I don't see any relevant higher time frame gaps that the price can encounter until the True Month Open so my current target is that. In my opinion CME_MINI:ES1! will get to the True Month Open first and will liquidate it, at the same time CME_MINI:NQ1! will get to a 90 minutes gap at AM session (Q3) and won't liquidate the True Month Open and we'll get a bearish SMT
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by EE_Trade_
Why Swarm Markets Could Be a Hidden Gem in the DeFi EcosystemSwarm Markets ( SET:SMT ), the world’s first licensed decentralized finance (DeFi) platform, has positioned itself as a trailblazer in merging traditional financial markets with blockchain technology. Backed by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin), Swarm Markets ensures the governance, transparency, and compliance of traditional financial institutions while offering the agility and innovation of DeFi. A Game-Changer in DeFi Swarm Markets’ ability to tokenize real-world assets like US Treasury bills and public stocks is revolutionary. By enabling both institutional and retail investors to trade and stake tokenized assets alongside cryptocurrencies, the platform addresses a significant gap between traditional and decentralized finance. This unique proposition enhances liquidity, accessibility, and inclusivity, making it a standout player in the DeFi ecosystem. The leadership of co-founders Philipp Pieper and Timo Lehes has been pivotal. Pieper’s expertise in technology and regulatory navigation and Lehes’ strategic growth vision have built a solid foundation for Swarm Markets. This synergy ensures the platform meets the rigorous standards of BaFin regulation, providing a secure and accountable environment for all users. Market Metrics and Sentiment The SET:SMT token trades actively on platforms like MEXC, Gate.io, and Uniswap V3 (Ethereum). Despite a daily trading volume of $205,879 (up 2.40% in the past 24 hours), the token’s price performance has been lackluster. Currently priced 85.39% below its all-time high of $1.32, SMT faces significant headwinds. The token has a market capitalization of $15.97 million and a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $30.57 million, indicating room for growth if market sentiment shifts positively. However, the recent 7-day decline of 10.30% highlights its struggles, particularly against a broader crypto market surge of 12.60%. Technical Outlook At the time of writing, SET:SMT is trading down 13.75%, trapped within a bearish symmetrical triangle pattern. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 reflects weak momentum, with the price approaching critical support at $0.12. A concerning development is the "death cross" observed on the daily chart—a strong bearish signal where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. Additionally, SET:SMT recently broke a structural support level at $0.43, invalidating its previous pattern of lower highs and higher lows. This break has exacerbated bearish sentiment, with successive peaks and troughs now forming a lower low trend. The potential for further downside is significant unless broader market conditions improve or a catalyst sparks renewed interest. External Factors and Market Potential The broader crypto landscape remains optimistic, with Gary Gensler’s resignation as SEC Chair effective November 18, 2024, potentially reducing regulatory uncertainty. This change could lift sentiment across the market, indirectly benefiting SET:SMT if it manages to capitalize on renewed investor interest. Conclusion Swarm Markets holds immense potential as a pioneering platform in regulated DeFi. Its tokenization initiatives and compliance with BaFin set it apart in an increasingly crowded market. However, SMT’s current technical and price performance suggests caution. The near-term outlook remains bearish, with critical support levels and external factors like general crypto market trends dictating its future. Long-term prospects, however, hinge on the platform’s ability to innovate and align with the broader financial industry’s evolving dynamics. Investors should closely monitor SMT’s performance, particularly any fundamental developments or shifts in market sentiment that could drive a recovery. While the technical picture is challenging, the unique value proposition of Swarm Markets cannot be ignored in the DeFi space.
SLong
by DEXWireNews