Gold analysis for the week of July 9, 2023.Last week I mentioned I wanted to see a bullish week with an sweep of buy side liquidity in the form of previous weeks High as an upside objective. That objective was met perfectly, price did exactly as explained, price fell into an 1hr +FVG forming the low of the week drawing to LWH sweeping the liquidity resting above it.
This week I'm still bullish gold, with great confidence given the fact that the DXY is bearish. Bearish dollar means bullish gold. I'm anticipation at some point this week possibly
Tues/Wed, for the low of the week to form below current price. We do have some high impact news on Wed, in the form of CPI, that I think helps price get to the buy side liquidity.
I go into more detail of potential entries and targets. Have a great week trading.
SMT
Gold Analysis for the week of June 4, 2023With FOMC this past Friday two things could be playing out for XAUUSD (Gold). The FOMC news could be the catalyst for a downside pullback for higher prices, or could be the expansion move that actually takes price lower, to what I believe is drawing towards a weekly buy side imbalance sell side inefficiency. If we anticipate the week to be bearish, then this is the idea that I will be looking for to play out.
If we are bearish, I would like to see the week open high into a premium array. After the high is put in on either Mon, Tues, or Wed. I would like to see strong expansion to the downside drawing towards weekly sell side liquidity as well as the consequent encroachment of the weekly BISI.
If the week is contrary then I would look for a low to be put in the market on either Mon, Tues, Wed, sweeping either daily or weekly lows before displacement to the upside seeking a premium array to take prices lower. If you have any questions or comments, please leave them in the section below. Thanks.
ES - short-term analysis Yesterday, we witnessed a sell-off down to the 4-hour Breaker Block, followed by a bounce from that level.
There is a 15-minute SMT divergence between NQ and YM, as well as a 1-hour SMT divergence with YM. This could indicate the possible formation of a MMBM (Market Maker Buy Model).
Currently, I'm interested in observing the testing of two short-term BSL levels: 4158 and 4166. After that, we may see a rapid bounce towards the 4175 level, which is an OB on the 15-minute chart.
My primary focus area is around the 1-hour OB, which ranges from 4186 to 4190.
However, for a comprehensive analysis, we need to see the retesting of the Monday High. If the market holds above the New Week Open Gap (NWOG), then my long target will be in the range of 4198 to 4200.
Please note that the Monday High at 4222.75.
V2.0 | 22R Gold Long Swing Trade | Smart Money Concepts/ICTThis is an updated plan for the macro Cup & Handle breakout
Previous setup for the 30R Gold long didn't play out; the unconfirmed SMT divergence didn't get confirmed and there was no impulsive move away.
The stop loss is larger due to the entry location.
Not financial advice but if this trade idea inspires you, you could use an even bigger stop to avoid potentially getting stopped out by an errant news spike. 22:1 risk reward sounds cooler though doesn't it?
SMT divergence in this setup between Gold & Silver has been confirmed this time; stops were swept on one pair but not on the other, before rallying upwards and creating a higher high on the daily timeframe.
In theory the swing where stops were swept SHOULD hold now.
NQ- HAS SCOPE TO XYZMTF Long leading into a long term short position
extreme link to BTC can see something almost exact to match
Has scope to be various ew counts and the main 2 both have scope to hit the desired zone with multiple confluence's
Would make sense in terms of seasonal pivot timing and line up nicely on multiple fib time pulls.
also i can the inverse movements within the DXY and falls in line.
could go deeper but i have moves on es and ym that would also corelate
Having said all of the above my secondary idea see's at at resistance currently with a small push to the upside with a pivot being placed and seeing us attack and the high time frame lows to form a true bottom and very first stages of a new bull run this year.
expectation of a very sideways first wave for a prolonged period that is difficult to enter with confidence then a very deep wave 2 that stops the feint hearted long term positions
followed by an extreme wave 2 that climbs beyond all expectations
my pre market analysis for this week 3/5/23I'm thinking retrace slightly into BISI from Friday.
then up to hit 1H OB near the opening price to left in red... just creating some liQ for NFP Friday
probably by Tuesday PM sesh
Then Weds-Friday drop into Discount
and hit an area with FVG & OB before going bullish to end the week.
only looking to sell if Tuesday hits the OB above WO
and then only looking to buy If we arrive at our anticipated discount array by mid-week
Major SMT EURUSD / GBPUSDI would like to direct your attention to this. Please trade safe and be aware that turbulent times are upon us. Price can do as it pleases and this here (Depending on what DXY shows as its hand) may indicate EU is pushing highs to pair liquidity and GBPUSD short books are full.
Using DXY - Bond yield Divergence correctly.A really strong indicator for future price action of say DXY for example can be the divergence between it and 5y, 10y and 30y bond yields. Forex markets are driven mainly by interest rates and so if we take a close look at the bond yields we can see them making lower highs whereas DXY is making higher highs. As said, DXY will also follow the bond yields and so we would expect DXY to drop. This SMT Divergence concept coupled with economic events could make for a great trade idea.
USDCAD LONGSOff the daily, its not a rejecting pb.
Its in the middle and hence a reaching pb.
The daily candle is bullish after London session.
Makes sense to look for longs on ltf.
On h4 , look left and a previous swing low was taken out. This shows a strong origin.
On m15, a good number of previous lows have been taken out(More than 2). This indicates a strong origin.
We notice bullish momentum to a point that has been touched previously taking out the pre existing orders as the market ranged around that area
and we expect a RTO.
The Buy order is executed with tp at 50% of the origin and sl at the previous lowest low of the current m15 market.
An extra order is added on m1 time frame off an order block and the trade is pyramided for maximal returns.
Now we wait to see the trades results. Our work is done as as retail trade analysts.
Now we wait.
See you on the next trade ideas ladies and gents. Share & follow if this was of value.