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Swiss franc higher as markets eye US jobs reportThe Swiss franc has moved higher on Thursday and is trading at 0.9068  in the North American session, down 0.41%. On Wednesday, the Swiss franc fell as low as 0.9147, its lowest level in two months. The Swiss National Bank meets on June 22nd and SNB President Jordan had a warning today for the markets. Jordan said that the central bank would not allow inflation to become entrenched, adding that if core inflation remained above 2% for too long, it would be difficult to bring it back down below 2%. Inflation remains above the Bank's 0-2% target, and Jordan has repeatedly warned that the Bank could continue tightening rates to curb inflation. The Bank is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points at the June meeting, which would bring the cash rate to 1.75%. The Federal Reserve meets on June 14th and members appear divided as to what action the Fed will take. Fed member Mester supports another rate hike and said on Wednesday that she did not see a “compelling reason to pause”, saying there was a more compelling case to 'hike and hold' rates. On the opposite side, members Jefferson and Harker said on Wednesday that they supported a pause in June and making future rate decisions based on the data. Jefferson warned that the effects of tightening had not been fully processed by the economy and higher rates could increase stress on the banking sector. The markets had widely expected a rate pause just a few weeks ago, but have now priced in a 25-basis point hike at 67%. US economic data has been solid, making it more difficult for the Fed to take a pause. Unless Friday's nonfarm payrolls are woefully below the forecast, it's looking likely that the Fed will be forced to hike again in June. The US House of Representatives has approved the debt ceiling deal by a resounding vote of 314-117. The Senate will have to quickly vote on the bill, as the government could reach its spending limit as early as June 5. The debt ceiling crisis sapped risk appetite and has helped the US dollar post broad gains against the majors. Fed member Loretta said that the deal removes a “big piece of uncertainty” about the economy. The US dollar has posted strong gains against the majors due to the debt crisis ceiling, which sapped risk sentiment. Once the debt ceiling is out of the way, it will be interesting to see if the US dollar loses some steam. USD/CHF is testing support at 0.9103. Below, there is support at 0.9022 0.9156 and 0.9237 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Swiss franc falls despite SNB Jordan's hawkish messageThe Swiss franc has fallen considerably on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8950, up 0.59% on the day. Swiss National Bank President Jordan reiterated a hawkish message on Wednesday that he sent out a week ago. Jordan said that he could not rule out further rate hikes, noting that current monetary policy was not restrictive enough. In other words, the SNB is unhappy with inflation levels, which although relatively low at 2.6%, have been above the Bank's target of 0-2% since February 2022. Inflation fell from 2.9% to 2.6% in April, and there is one final inflation report before the SNB's next meeting on June 22nd. The SNB has not shied away from being aggressive and delivering oversize hikes as high as 0.75% in the current rate-hike cycle, and we could see another hike if inflation doesn't fall close to 2.0% in the next release. The Swiss franc continues to appreciate, much to the consternation of SNB policymakers, as a stronger Swissy makes exports more expensive. The Swiss franc has soared about 500 points since March 1st and Jordan made sure to remind his listeners that the central bank was prepared to intervene in the forex markets if necessary. In the US, unemployment claims surprised to the upside, rising to 264,000, up from 245,000 and higher than the consensus estimate of 242,000. This was the highest total since January 2022, and although it's just one report, it will likely raise speculation that the labour market is showing cracks. On the inflation front, the Producers Price Index, taking the lead from CPI, softened in April. The headline reading fell from 2.7% to 2.3% (2.4% est). The core rate dropped from 3.4% to 3.2% (3.3% est). USD/CHF has pushed past resistance at 0.8907.  The next resistance line is 0.8994 0.8819 and 0.8732 are providing support
by OANDA
Eurozone banks now caught the coldAs I mentioned before, the contagion will spread like wildfire because the banking system are so intertwined. We now see Deutsche Bank potentially get caught in the onslaught. Their share tanked by approximately 15% last Friday. After Credit Suisse got obliterated and UBS come to pick up the remains with assistance from SNB ($100 Billion Swiss Franc), their share price now trade below $1. Liquidity injection did nothing to help Credit Suisse. I see this bailout as helping the top 10% to rescue their money and let the rest die. It is always the case. Silicon Valley Bank just gap down and declining more, Signature Bank not showing signs of recovery at all and the regulators/leaders of US still say everything is okay. One thing to bare in mind is that, all the country's leaders have a fiduciary duty to not cause public panic, even though they have a gun to their head. So, what ever you read right now in the mass media by Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Bank CEOs and other Central Bank chairperson, is deemed untrustworthy. As mentioned before, the next sector that might get hit will be real estate, in particular commercial real estate. White collar layoffs on-going + high inflation + high cost of borrowing + tightening lending requirement + high delinquency in rental/mortgage payments + work from home/hybrid preference = commercial real estate crash. If this crash happens, Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities will come crashing down too, which will bring down the Big Banks. There will be flight to safety. Gold and silver will continue to rise, no doubt about that. US Stock market will like rally short term as Eurozone and Switzerland is on shaky grounds. US Dollar may see a short term bullishness as sentiment on Euro bloc is hitting the headlines. Massive riots in France due to Macro increasing retirement age, will also be priced-in and act as catalyst. APAC region could potentially see great alternative to store value and protect capital. APAC markets, as I always said, is more conservative and resilient. By Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy
TVC:DXY
by XeroAcademy
2
USD/CHF - Swiss franc climbs higher, SNB meeting eyedThe Swiss franc continues to rally and is trading in North America at 0.9139, down 0.37%. USD/CHF has fallen some 200 points in just one week. SNB goes for oversize hike The Swiss National Bank raised rates by 50 basis points today, bringing the cash rate to 1.50%. It was a toss-up whether the SNB would raise rates by 25 or 50 bp, and in the end, policy makers opted for the larger increase. There were strong reasons to support either move. Swiss inflation jumped to 3.4% in February, its highest level since 1993. Although these levels are very low compared to other major economies, inflation is above the target of 0%-2% and this supported a 50-bp increase. At the same time, the market turmoil triggered by the bank crisis provided the SNB with an out, if it so wished, to opt for a smaller 25-bp hike. SNB head Jordan said after the rate decision that the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse had averted a financial disaster, not just for Switzerland but for the global economy. Jordan warned that it was critical that the merger take place in a smooth manner in order to maintain financial stability. The SNB has been busy lately, providing $53 billion for the takeover and signing on to a coordinated move by six central banks to boost liquidity. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bp on Wednesday as expected, but the move was a "dovish hike". The Fed changed the language in the rate statement, stating that tighter policy "may be appropriate", compared to "will be appropriate" in the previous statement. The dot plot chart indicated a forecast of a terminal rate of 5.1% for the end of 2023, unchanged from December. The Fed's battle against inflation, which is showing results, hit a snag due to the recent bank crisis which sent the markets into turmoil. The Fed made reference to the crisis in the rate statement, stating that, "The US banking system is sound and resilient", but added that it was uncertain how the fallout of the crisis would impact the economy and inflation. ECB President Lagarde said this week that the banking debacle could help curb eurozone inflation, and the same argument, I suppose, can be said about inflation in the US. The recent turmoil in the markets means that the Fed's rate path is unclear. With inflation still high, there is a need for additional tightening, but at the same time, tighter policy could worsen the stress on the banking system. The markets are expecting the current tightening cycle to end soon, with a pause and rate cuts to follow later in the year. . USD/CHF is putting pressure on support at 0.9110. The next support level is 0.8935 0.9226 and 0.9304 are the next resistance lines
Editors' picks
by OANDA
7
USD/CHF - Swiss franc climbs higher, SNB meeting eyedThe Swiss franc is showing some strength on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9238, down 0.58%. The turmoil which has roiled the financial markets over the past week has eased today. European stock markets are steady, and shares of UBS and Credit Suisse are both higher. The extraordinary measures taken on the weekend, namely, the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS and the coordinated move by six major central banks to boost liquidity appear to have had a calming effect on jittery investors. These moves may have achieved the critical goal of containing the contagion in the banking system and avoiding a full-scale financial crisis. The bank crisis has shocked investors, as Credit Suisse, the second largest bank in Switzerland, has toppled like a deck of cards, with its share price plunging to below one Swiss franc. The consolidated Swiss banking sector has lost a key player in a matter of days, and the stellar reputation of the Swiss banking system has been dealt a huge blow. One analyst went as far as stating that the demise of Credit Suisse has turned Switzerland into a "financial banana republic". The volatility in the foreign exchange markets has paled in comparison to the turmoil in the equity and commodity markets. Still, the Swiss franc has lost ground against the US dollar and the euro since last week, when Credit Suisse collapsed. This points to the Swissie losing some of its attraction as a safe-haven asset. In the midst of the bank crisis, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) holds a policy meeting on Thursday. The markets have priced at 50/50 the odds of a 25 or 50 basis point increase. Like the ECB, SNB policymakers face a dilemma of whether to remain aggressive in the fight against inflation or to ease up due to concerns over the turmoil in the Swiss banking sector. The ECB opted for the 50-bp move and we'll have to wait and see if the SNB follows suit. USD/CHF faces resistance at 0.9304 and 0.9382 0.9226 and 0.9110 are providing support
by OANDA
USDCHF Outlook 21 March 2023The USDCHF has been trading within the narrow range of 0.93 and 0.9237 (which coincides with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level). With the Swiss National Bank (SNB) interest rate decision due on Thursday, the USDCHF is likely to continue consolidating along this range. As the directional bias of the USDCHF is heavily dependent on the volatility of the DXY, a breakout in the interim for the USDCHF is likely to be driven by a strong move on the DXY. If the SNB hikes rates by 50bps as forecasted, taking interest rates to 1.50%, this could strengthen the CHF and see the USDCHF trade lower. If the price breaks below the immediate support level of 0.9237, the next key support level is 0.91. However, watch out for possible hesitation at the interim support level and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9174.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
Swissie rally fizzles, SNB's Jordan up nextUSD/CHF has rebounded on Tuesday, ending a rally that saw the Swiss franc climb over 1%. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9344, up 0.40%. Switzerland released the February inflation report on Monday and the reading was higher than expected. CPI rose 0.7% m/m, up from 0.6% in February and above the 0.4% forecast. On an annualized basis, CPI climbed 3.4%, edging up from 3.3% and higher than the forecast of 3.1%. These inflation numbers would be a dream come true for most major central banks, which are struggling with inflation levels two or three times higher. Still, the Swiss National Bank is concerned about high inflation, as its target is 0-2%. The SNB was widely expected to raise rate by 50 basis points at the rate meeting on March 23 and the uptick in February inflation cements the likelihood of such a move. Swiss National Bank Chair Jordan will make an appearance later today and is likely to address the rise in inflation. The SNB does not provide forward guidance for its rate policy, but the central bank has projected an inflation rate of 2.4% for 2023. With the cash rate currently at 1%, it's a safe bet that we'll see another hike in June of either 25 or 50 basis points. The continuing tightening should provide a boost to the Swiss franc, but traders should keep in mind that the SNB has not hesitated to intervene in the foreign exchange market when the Swiss franc became too strong for its liking. In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will be in the spotlight as he testifies before a Senate committee later today. The Fed has remained hawkish and after a host of strong January releases, the markets have shifted their expectations closer to the Fed's stance. It was only a few weeks ago that the markets were projecting a pause followed by rate cuts, but this has changed to pricing in three more rate hikes this year. There is a lot of uncertainty in the air about inflation and interest rates and the markets are hoping that Powell's comments will provide some clarity. There is resistance at 0.9381 and 0.9420 0.9304 and 0.9224 are providing support
by OANDA
Selling Canadian Bacon.CADCHF broke the above trend line that market have been respecting for the last 2 years & 6 months. When a 2+ year trendline have been broken the market is trying to tell us something, if you look close enough you'll see market dropped 680 pips to break that trendline and is currently consolidating that move. When market decides to break the previous low made (0.71154), i see market dropping towards 0.68, a (-6.06%) decline from markets current position covering -438.6 pips. The CAD have been suffering due to falling oil prices and the CHF is benefiting as a safe haven & aggressive hikes from the SNB. Adjust STOPLOSS to suit your RISK plan.
Short
by xavierNF
GBPCHF:Good opportunity on Policy DivergenceSwitzerland National Bank officially announced the intervention in the FX market to stop the Swiss Franc depreciation, which confirms a regime change for the SNB. and their Hawkish monetary policy will strengthen the CHF and aim for a lower inflation, meanwhile the Bank of England hiked the rates slowly and with hesitations despite a very high inflation which should contribute to a strong CHF against GBP. Technically we noticed a breakout of the Daily trend, we will look into selling the retrace of the breakout around the monthly zone of 1.129, with a SL above previous highs as in the swing trades the movements are more violent so a proper risk management should be considered. Remember that whatever is your reasoning for the market and no matter how strong are the analysis there is always a probability of losing as trading is more of a probability field so make sure to always consider a good RR, risk small and aim higher. Your questions are very welcome!
Short
by JoeChampion
7
Swiss franc reverses slide after SNB hikeMajor central banks were in the spotlight this week, as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised rates by 50 basis points at their final meeting of the year. These moves overshadowed a 50 bp rate increase by the Swiss National Bank, where rate moves are unusual - this week's rate increase, which brought the benchmark rate to 1.0%, was only the third hike this year. The driver behind the rate hike was the all-familiar battle to curb inflation. Switzerland's inflation rate of 3% pales in comparison to the eurozone (10.0%) or the US (7.1%), but is above the SNB's target of 0-2%. The SNB has been aggressive, raising rates by 50 bp in June and an oversize 75-bp hike in September. After years of negative rates, the Bank has dramatically changed policy, responding to what it called a "challenging situation" in a press release after the meeting. The SNB also reminded the markets that it was "willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary".  The Bank has not hesitated in the past to intervene in order to prevent the Swiss franc from climbing too high and damaging the export sector. USD/CHF has declined over 7% since November 1st, and the SNB will be watching to see if the Swiss franc's appreciation continues. The markets are still digesting the Fed's hawkish stance at this week's meeting. Actually, anyone who has been listening to Jerome Powell and FOMC members would see that the Fed reiterated that it would continue to raise rates and that inflation remained far too high. The markets, however, have been marching to their own beat, expecting that a series of soft inflation reports might change the Fed's tune. There was talk of the Fed winding up its current rate cycle in February, but the rate statement dampened such hopes, stating that the Fed expected ""ongoing increases" in interest rates." Powell dismissed the recent drop in inflation, saying more evidence was required that the downward trend was sustainable. It seems a given after this hawkish meeting that the terminal rate is likely to rise above 5%, with some forecasts projecting that rates will go as high as 5.6%. USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.9285. The next resistance line is at 0.9372 There is support at 0.9228 and 0.9144
by OANDA
USD/CHF holding support!Last week’s fall in the US Dollar after the October’s CPI was released has been quite rapid. Add in hawkish comments from the SNB’s Jordan, and it’s a recipe for USD/CHF to head lower. Indeed, the pair did move from a local high of 1.0147 down to 0.9398 in just three days. Is it time for USD/CHF to bounce? Notice the RSI in the bottom panel of the chart. It is clearly in oversold territory and diverging from price. This is a signal that price may correct or even reverse soon. Buyers will look to enter near 0.9400/0.9420 and place a stop under the August 11th low of 0.9371. Traders can use Fibonacci retracements from the recent high to the August 11th low to give a more conservative target. First target is 0.9667, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The 50% retracement level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level above there are at 0.9759 and 0.9851, respectively. If price reaches each target, traders can use trailing stops to guard against losses.
by FOREXcom
USDCHF is going to breakoutUSD have been very strong this year. Nearly all currencies fall again USD CHF have been strong since 2000, it's not time for upside break out in 2012, because of the euro crisis, chf have been strong against EUR and so the SNB peg CHF with EUR at 1.2 in 2014, some how SNB is not able to peg CHF to EUR any more, so the peg is unlinked so there is no chance that CHF to peg euro again now: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) central bank of Swiss posted a first half loss of CHF 95.2 billion, the biggest loss since central bank's founding in1907 Goldman Sachs estimate Credit Suisse faces $8 billion capital shortfall in 2024, compare to last week SNB sight deposits have fallen -19.6 billion for the USDCHF is about time to change the course and CHF is going to weaker in the future. TIME TO LONG
Long
by bruceyam
3
USDJPY the road to 150.00There is a shortage of US dollars. The Swiss National Bank has basically borrowed nearly $6.3 billion from the U.S. Federal Reserve's currency swap line facility, roughly double the amount drawn a week earlier, New York Fed data released on Thursday showed. This is the SNB having to provide liquidity for US-denominated debt holders in and around Europe and possibly global entities. The yen is fundamentally broken as we have seen Japanese Gov. debt not trading for days at a time. But the government still continues to refinance itself. So I am expecting quite a surge on the USD, and a continued decline in the yen. Technically the US CPI yesterday cleared both the buy and sell stops. as the MM's gathered their orders together.
by Macrobriefing
The SNB could surprise (again) with a larger than expected hikeThe SNB (Swiss National Bank) are expected to hike interest rates tomorrow, which would send their rate above zero for the first time since 2011. The central bank entered ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) between 2011 – 2015 before switching to NIRP (negative interest rate policy) with a rate of -0.75%, where it remained until June this year. And with seemingly few paying attention, they not only hiked rates but came out swinging with a 50bp hike and sent shockwaves across currency markets. This quickly saw the yen strengthen as traders assumed the BOJ would be next to follow, but we’re still waiting and will likely be for some time. But the main point I am making is that the SNB are likely to hike again tomorrow, and it would be wise to at least be prepared for a larger hike than some expect. A 50, 75 or even 100bp hike could be on the table for the SNB A recent poll saw economists up their 50bp hike for the SNB to 75bp. But in light of Sweden’s Riksbank hiking by 100bp, wholesale prices in Germany exploding higher and the potential for the Fed to hike by 100bp, I’m not discounting the potential for the SNB to join to 100bp club. Besides, they hiked by 50bp when the consensus was for no change at all and have a track record with an element of surprise. Furthermore, the Swiss government upgraded 2022 CPI from 2.5% to 3%, and for 2023 from 1.4% to 2.3% - so perhaps they know something we don’t. CHF/JPY daily chart: There are fewer finer examples of a strong bullish trend on a currency chart, than CHF/JPY right now. Momentum has been increasing during each impulse move higher, the moving averages are in ‘bullish sequence’ and fanning out, and prices are respecting the closest average as support. Prices have been coiling up within a falling wedge pattern (bullish in an uptrend) and potentially printed its swing low this week at the 10-day EMA. Furthermore, a 3-day bullish reversal pattern called a morning star has formed, so the bias remains bullish above this week’s low and for a move to the 150.71 high. A break above which brings 154 into focus. However, even if prices break low we would still keep an eye out for a potential swing low, given the diverging policies between the SNB and BOJ.
Long
by CityIndex
Yen falls back down after BoJ balksThe Japanese yen continues to post strong swings this week and is up sharply on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 134.67 in Europe, up 1.86% on the day. It's been a busy week, with the markets still digesting some dramatic moves by central banks. The Fed and SNB delivered massive salvos in their fight against inflation, and the BoE continues to tighten, albeit at a more modest pace. The week wrapped up with the Bank of Japan policy decision earlier in the day. These meetings are usually on the dull side, with the central bank merely reaffirming its ultra-loose policy, with the occasional tweak. Today's meeting was closely watched, however, as the BOJ's yield curve stance has been under pressure and there was speculation that the BoJ might retreat and release the cap of 0.25% on 10-year JGBs. In the end, the BoJ did not blink or budge, maintaining its policy for yield curve control and QE. The BOJ reaffirmed it will continue its policy of rock-bottom rates, even though other major central banks are tightening policy, as we saw this week with the Fed, BOE and SNB. Governor Kuroda has insisted that monetary easing remain in place, given Japan's slow recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. With inflation barely at 2%, the central bank's target, Kuroda can afford to continue his loose policy and tenaciously defend the BoJ's yield curve. The BoJ didn't adjust policy today but it was noteworthy that the policy statement added the exchange rate to its list of risks, something we haven't seen in previous statements. The yen hit a 24-year low at 135.60 earlier this week and could fall even further. The Bank is sending a message that it is monitoring the exchange rate, but I question whether this will deter the markets from continuing to test the yen - previous jawboning from the BoJ and Ministry of Finance didn't succeed in stemming the yen's slide, and we could well be on our way to a 140 yen if the US/Japan rate differential continues to widen. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 133.14. Above, there is resistance at 1.3585 There is support at 131.72
by OANDA
Swiss franc soars after SNB surprise hikeThe Swiss franc has posted massive gains today after the Swiss National Bank raised interest rates by 0.50%. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9653, down a massive 2.91% on the day. It has been a week of central bank drama, which started with the Federal Reserve delivering a massive 0.75% rate hike. This was followed today by a Swiss shocker, as the SNB tightened the screws on monetary policy with its first rate increase since 2007, raising rates from -0.75% to -0.25%. The markets had become accustomed to the SNB's ultra-low rate of -0.75%, which had been in place since 2015. Most major central banks, with the notable exception of the Bank of Japan, are in the midst of a rate-tightening cycle, as they attempt to wrestle down surging inflation. After the rate hike, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said that the SNB was concerned about rising inflation in Switzerland, which is heading towards 3%. The rate statement reflected Jordan's comments, saying that further hikes could be implemented in order to stabilize inflation. The statement also reiterated that the SNB would be "willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary." The SNB carefully monitors the exchange rate and has intervened in the past when it deemed the Swiss franc's value as too high, which is detrimental to Switzerland's export-reliant economy. The Swiss franc has been on a slide, falling 400 points and breaking above parity earlier this week. The SNB may have felt that this was a prudent time to deliver a significant rate hike, even though it would send the Swiss franc sharply higher. There were no surprises from the Federal Reserve, which raised rates by 0.75%, to a target range of 1.50-1.75%. The Fed downgraded its US growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023, but insisted that there would be no recession. Some analysts would beg to disagree, but the financial markets were relieved, as Fed Chair Powell said he didn't expect 0.75% rate hikes to become common. This is a massive rate hike, the largest since 1994. Will it hasten the long sought-after inflation peak? Along with the Fed, we'll have to be patient and wait. USD/CHF has broken through support at 0.9928 and 0.9792. The pair is testing support at 0.9698, with 0.9500 the next support line There is resistance at 1.0084
by OANDA
Dollar Outlook for Week 24 -> DXY, JPY, CHF, GBPLast week I got surprised by strong USD. Not one of the expected predictions came true and therefore no trades have been taken in the $ pairs. Last week news favored a stronger USD. Inflation is still unexpected high despite aggressive rate hikes. It seems a 0.5 hike for the next meeting on Wednesday is already fully priced in. Further hikes in the coming months are likely. On the other hand the markets seem very fragile and therefore an aggressive stance from the FED and other central banks might risk a further slowdown and even more volatility in the markets. Therefore I still believe the strong $ is only temporary. → All the current Outlooks are based on MT weakening of the USD. → Outlook solely based on PA. Wait for confirmation before entering a trade and consider FX correlation. ------------------- Glossary: HTF – Higher Time Frame LTF – Lower Time Frame MT – Medium Term DT – Down Trend UT – Up Trend BO – Break- out PA – Price Action CS – Candle Stick SL – Support Level RL – Resistance Level TC – Trend Channel Color Code: Blue solid line – Actual PA Structure Blue dashed line – Legacy PA Structure Violet dashed line – Area of Sensitivity S/R Levels Orange dotted line – My Alarms
TVC:DXY
by kalganid