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ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2020.06.05Clearly all the action has been in EURCHF after the enormous bids that came through into euro yesterday. Large macro players are liking what they hear from ECB and the Commission which is setting the stage for the EURCHF short-covering. The key divergence can be seen in USDCHF breaking down, this isn't a CHF driven move but rather from the USD weakness. I am interested to chase this lower as risk sentiment begins to turn down again and CHF begins to find that safe-haven demand. Currently the outlook for CHF is firmly neutral, this can change as early as today's NFP. How it behaves below the 0.950x handle will be thoroughly examined, the totally rigid cast around the risk rally is still part of a "KNEE JERK REACTION" phase from the initial crash. This means that markets will begin to start trading the facts around a recession and slow recovery. If any any doubts of the recession consider the following diagrams: For a) see 2's 5's curve screaming recession For b) , consider the unemployment levels In this simplest of all positions, every other time this happened it ended badly for the economy. Assuming USD does not devalue materially into 2020 its repo will grow and continue expanding the balance sheet , one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up. CHF appears in the FX desks to be starting to finally bow down to the boss, that is risk. The blockader that is employment, is not flexible here and able to go on long journeys in all directions. The elasticity; should be kept in mind and used to analyse risk flows as such.
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EURCHF Long-Term Marco Map📍 EURCHF On the CHF side, we had started to see a lot of plumbing from SNB at the lows 1.06xx-1.05xx and for those following the flows it was the 🔑 level we were to tracking in Q1. It is no surprise that we are reaching the end of ' Phase 1 ' and constituting a very powerful base that we can now use as an attacking weapon. The purpose of the sweep was to shake the tree and put out of action early buyers and late sellers. The concept of Eurobonds is more than enough to capture the highlights of this establishment, a consolidation that will undoubtedly be endurable. Well done all those riding this pig, a move that will be difficult to defend against. A nice late breakfast while EURCHF trades levels not seen since 2019. Although CHF is going to benefit from risk off flows versus USD, I am bullish on the euro and could not step against this train. A break of 1.10 will send the message.
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | The isolated euro The dynamic strength of the block is itching to expand and further in the circumstance that this debt mutualisation is unlocking and making possible federalisation without the UK. SNB's outpost at 1.060x is - at least in the medium term a pivot level that offers full compensation for those investing in the euro as an investment. Buyers can show that political unity and monetary unity will be more keenly effective than any alternative in the next decade. This is because it is clear that Eurobond will be backed by strong demand for the euro which puts the opposing greenback across the Atlantic under severe pressure, and what is more urgent that a devaluation of the dollar?! An examination of the capital flows involved thus gives an undoubted plus to the East over the coming decade. Critical for an evaluation of the issue is the acceptance of the 27, however, the almighty Germany has put their foot down, there is no longer any likelihood of resistance from the dutch. On the technical side, I am actively buying dips towards 1.055x and expect a lot EUR more demand to continue in the coming sessions. To the downside, if sellers somehow managed to penetrate the 1.050x lows I will step aside as it will pull back into play the flash crash towards the 1.030x lows.
Long
by ridethepig
Feeling some bullish vibe on USDCHFI know FED is playing big moves ahead so far to prevent the State from the pandemic before it may cause more disruption around the country. The reason is beyond technical analysis for me to think even slightly how this pair might gonna end up trending upward. The big moves which I'm talking about from fed were the double rate cut within a month and some repo market actions. They aren't taking things slightly any more the moment when they decided to drop their benchmark rate around 0%-0.25% and some big Qe plans coming later. I know most of global central banks honchos are too serious about this pandemic at this moment and Fed has already shown us the real action lately which should slowly help to resolve the issue which had generated by that pandemic "coronavirus" within the state and its economy. Lastly don't forget about Swiss National Bank Intervening to Weaken Franc on recent data from the central banks. They just don't like their currency to get overvalued for various reasons. These conditions let me assume this pair may probably make some new swing highs.
Long
by jessi061
6
ridethepig | CHF Macro PlaybookThe pair is performing with little trouble for sellers, it has been absolutely hammered as Global Equities and Yields come under further pressure via Coronavirus impact. After a conversation with @FT_Lexicon we can discuss the importance of flanking and comparing with EURCHF is vital here, we can realise why there is not the same room for SNB intervention as there was in 2011. Let us now take a look at this two-stage manoeuvre in a swing without opposing forces: The 1.06 barrier is giving up, this will allow the move to follow through with CHF inflows. Here the CHF side must be occupied via risk-off positioning. The franc must be bought as long as we remain in this environment, a frontal attack on demand and supply and now markets are catching up. For all those tracking the previous USDCHF chart via generational US capital outflows we it is a good time to review the diagram: In the position; Sellers have already done the technical damage because the next soft support is not found till 0.900x which will hold temporarily before we move towards 0.85xx. The theory of our opposition is really lacking, FED cuts and US virus case numbers still ticking higher will all weigh heavily on USD going forward. The truth is simple; volatility was miles ahead and played its role as leader, here is the chart @ridethepig called back last year in VIX (Volatility): The application of the VIX in this context is helping us keep in sync with risk sentiment, as long as this remains elevated, all USDCHF rallies should continue to be sold. This shows the typical and ideal situation for us using CHF as a safe-haven. Their relationship is like those of real comrades, brothers standing side-by-side and must be taken into consideration at all times! The strength of their relationship will progress and demand a testing of the 0.85xx handle, their lust of range expansion will continue to drive the flows. On the technicals, 0.9525 is the closest s/t resistance and should be sold if it arises. Otherwise, well done all those holding shorts from the highs last year. As usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts rolling in the comments below !!
Short
by ridethepig
2
$EURCHF - Swiss National Bank InterveningHey all. Something to note on EURCHF... The Swiss National Bank want a weaker Swiss Franc. To weaken the Franc,they conduct many different market operations. One of course is to buy US equities and the other is to increase their holdings of foreign currencies. Just last week, the Swiss National Bank increased their 'sigh deposits' of the dollar and euro by about 2.1bn CHF, the largest weekly increase in quite some time. Naturally if you look at that chart you can see why. It's a massive support level and a clear break would lead to a huge euro depreciation versus the Swiss Franc. This would be adverse to the Bank's aims. The problem is, however, that the US has placed the bank on the currency manipulator list and they might have their hands tied in terms of the extent to which they can devalue the Swiss Franc. My thoughts, however, are that the euro is structurally too weak to sustain any real appreciation versus the franc. We have many political problems now within the EU with regards to budgets, but also in France and Germany politically, and with the new Basel regulations potentially causing a credit crunch across European banks over the next few years due to higher capital requirements, the banking sector of the bloc looks weak too. There is one saving grace perhaps, and that is if the euro funding trade unwinds, but I do not think that this will happen to any real extent yet. I'd say that we range along this support for a while and then we start to see gradual dips lower as the Eurozone faces further deterioration in data.
Short
by FinkPro
1
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2020.02.14Models make it hard to add any longs to USDCHF here at the highs, risk opening the floodgates for a -1.5% short, mainly stemming from a notable pick up in demand for CHF after the latest shift in risk sentiment. Here tracking the risks related to coronavirus that imply the Eurozone growth will take another hit (as if things were not already difficult enough for Europe) and CHF will act as a safe haven in the flow. On the SNB side, intervention is a lot more tricky with Trump tracking like a hawk for any artificial devaluation. For the short-term flows I am tracking 0.980x for the trigger, risking -25 on the day and targeting a retest of the Weekly open. On the macro charts things are clearer: From a technical perspective, we marked the long term highs in an ending diagonal count. For those following the previous charts we have traded live here on Tradingview this ABC leg. This is far from surprising considering that CHF has a much brighter nature of dealing with large capital flows than the US, which is underlined by protectionism. Risks to the thesis come from SNB intervention capping the upside in CHF (unlikely as per this morning). As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EURCHF High Risk Of Flash Crash !!!Here a good time to update the EURCHF as we break through the 1.062x lows as sellers are aiming for complete capitulation of their opponent (as far as the flash crash is concerned there is very little in terms of support here if we get a daily breach). The plan was (1) Forcing further selling EURCHF: (2) The extension leg was released and sellers advanced in triumph: (3) Possible retracement barrier, e.g strong support on 1.062x, smart money buying the lows? This plan to originally buy the lows could still be in play, in other words the close this week is important as it will effectively communicate whether we are in the exhaustion stage of our 'C' leg or rather starting the impulsive swing towards 1.014x which is the target wave '3'. It is much more difficult for SNB to intervene with FED tracking like a hawk to assimilate the CHF selling. The direct exploitation of an intervention is part of the middlegame - see some of my previous content on risk flows. All we need to hope for to achieve a major flush is to keep our opponent suffering for further lengths in time. Buyers are on the defensive! A close below 1.060x will demand some attention, monitoring closely the price action around these levels. Remain short for now. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comment and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | EURCHF Market Commentary 2020.01.16A good time to update the daily chart in EURCHF with Euro starting to trade firmer on the crosses and the CHF run beginning to show signs of unwinding. The 1.074x is starting to look very weak and will give way to sweep all the way down towards 1.062x, here looking to increase exposure; should we visit 1.080x I will not hesitate to increase sizings. For those tracking the Long-term macro chart we remain in the same updated map: Currency manipulation is once again a hot topic with US putting China back on the 'nice' list, smelling SNB to become the next deer in the headlights as CHF inflows are impressive and I believe sharp money is going to test the limits. Good luck those in EURCHF - an advanced chart for the move towards 1.06xx.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EURCHF Market Commentary 2020.15.01CHF a clear winner in the G10 space has been a finding strong bid via smart money smelling the markets strength of conviction in the SNB ability to intervene decreasing. Positioning is far from stretched, meaning there is plenty of room left on the boat. For those tracking the USDCHF flows 0.970x remains the key level to track: The technical picture is clearer in EURCHF in my books, a clean breakdown in play with eyes on the C leg completing at 1.06xx. I have switched to the sell side after the recent breakdown and actively adding shorts in the 1.08xx handle. The 1.06xx handle will become very attractive for longs next month... good luck all trading the selloff into end of Jan.
Short
by ridethepig
USD/CHF: Swissy Analysis : FOMC meeting and SNB playing rolesUSD/CHF is currently trading a key weekly level around 0.98400 - 0.98700 zones. This weekly support { purple line } has been rejected several times in the past, with the pair bouncing around 130 pips each upside movement. The daily candle isn't showing any prime entry point, therefore we expect this pair to stay neutral until FOMC meeting today and SNB meeting on tomorrow Thursday. Traders should take this trade with the consideration that the level gets rejected or broken. A closure below 0.98400 can send the Swissy back to the next support at 0.9800 or close to our Green line.
by Shourov_kk
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2019.11.28USDCHF still caught in the tight range, patience and flexibility important here, range bound 1.002x - 0.984x with both parameters significant now, it looks like being a roller-coaster into year-end. EURCHF very strong support 1.093x - more inclined to buy dips and play from the long side. I still favour upside EURCHF but as people still cutting longs we are unlikely to progress significantly higher in short term. We are right back to our previous entry point and tracking exactly the same flows ... and by now I know all following here will know what to do at key resistance: Remember, we can comfortably lean on the long-term chart: and for those with a background in waves - we got stuck in severe chop within the same sequence: With two sides to the theme we are trading the large macro flows from widespread USD devaluation as a main course dinner, while CHF outflows are likely via "orderly Brexit resolution" which will go on to act as desert. Remember CHF is the lowest yielder in G10 FX, it's been mainly used as a funding currency for carry trades, if risk ticks high in 2020 we are going to have a textbook zig-zag in play. So the initial 'zig' (as seen above) coming from front-loaded USD devaluation into year-end/Jan, followed by decent CHF profit taking in February as those who used CHF to hedge Brexit begin to unwind. The major waterfall looks only to continue with momentum via US election risk and Brexit after the fact impacts (the kind you cannot heal from a political poll in the Times). In any case, thanks all for keeping the likes and support rolling. As usual jump in the comments with your ideas and charts !!
Short
by ridethepig
5
AUDCHF- Shorts Favoured after SNB keeps rates on hold!While other central banks are easing, the SNB keepT rates on hold, reiterating Swiss Franc remains overvalued, Adjusting the basis for calculating negative interest. The reaction has been a consolidated push higher for the CHF and we like selling AUDCHF on the back of this news since all big banks in Australia are now expecting the RBA to cut rates at the next meeting. We like short position in AUDCHF looking for 6660 initially.
Short
by Sam_Eder
1