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USDCHF Important updates for bullsHere we are once again looking at the 5th and final wave in the uptrend meaning it's time to add more exposure on dollar longs once more, we are in the beginning of an impulse wave. The support line will come into play on the technical side and we are set to mark the turning point and kick start flows till the end of summer. Let's track the charts closely, we have launched a smaller TF chart for those here who are trading the H1 initial part of this move as usual and I have attached the weekly charts too for those who are interested in the macro moves. Best of luck
Long
by ridethepig
6
SNB - Central Bank Canary in the Coal Mine exits to the shortAt long last, one of our most important Canaries in the Coal Mine - the Swiss National Bank - has exited a lengthy consolidation pattern to the downside. Frankly, we are surprised it lasted this long given its exposure to long US mega-cap. Whatever is going on in there, it needs to take out 5400 on the upside to nullify today's short signal using the simple www.40in20out.com trend trading approach. (For what it's worth, for some reason our PineScript does not work on the delayed quotes on this exchange. We continue to investigate.)
SIX:SNBNShort
by 40in20out
EURCHF MAJOR ZONENot really a call therefore i put this idea as educational. The EURCHF seems to be at a very important resistance where the major sell off occurred at the end of 2014-15. There seems to be a lot of news indicating that the CHF will weaken further due to the negative interest rates and the SNB allowing the further depreciation of their currency - but in my opinion the TA will tell - on the higher time frames i think we should look for a divergence and couple it with the upcoming chf news this week for a SELL . A major opportunity with low risk compared to the reward and if we're wrong.... oh well. I think the euro will go back to the zone... no doubt , but just not yet.
by RickyChand
1
2018 Macro Outlook - EURCHF Bearish BiasWe have a rather bullish meeting minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB) last week, but as long as ECB maintains its easing policies, upside on the Euro may be limited. Combining with the technical aspects on the chart, we are seeing an ending diagonal structure forming, with a divergence on RSI as well. Adding on, we do see price hit the minimum expected areas based on fibonacci extension between 100% - 123.6% too. These reasons provided me the conviction in looking for a longer term trade to the downside on this pair. I will be following up and tracking this thread regularly throughout the year. Make sure you follow this idea to get notified whenever there is an update on this idea. Have a great trading year ahead!
Short
by KarYong
2
2018 Macro Outlook - USDCHF Bullish BiasBased on the macro and fundamental analysis of the US Dollar, I'm personally holding a bullish bias for 2018/19. Price may not rally straight from here, but I would rather look for buy opportunity for the longer term, and would be more aggressive in taking profit for any short trades. I will be following up and tracking this thread regularly throughout the year. Make sure you follow this idea to get notified whenever there is an update on this idea. Have a great trading year ahead!
Long
by KarYong
6
Longer term idea for the EuroSwissA longer-term bullish idea on the EURCHF - D1 - This pair looks to have recently broken out of a trading channel to the upside, I'd ideally like to see some sort of pullback to re-test the top of the channel & possibly the bullish trend line before looking to get long. Ultimately there is some Fib confluence in the yellow area on the chart, which also happens to line up nicely with the area the EURCHF was trading prior to that snap decision by the SNB in 2015 to de-peg the franc - this would be my target area to take profits on this trade should it play out of the coming weeks/months. Let's see how it plays out!
Long
by bmck1
CHFUSD: Swiss Franc going sideways from hereIn this chart I analyze the recent uptrend in the Franc. It appears to have ran into a wall, where the election day's low and the Brexit low sit, as well as a massive volume level, which will take time to break. I'd rather be flat here, and wait, we can look to buy dips in this or the Euro, or Gold or Silver probably meanwhile. This can serve as a hedge against our long positions in equities. I still see opportunity on the long side, not so much in the index, but in undervalued securities. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
USDCHF is almost ready for upward breakoutFrom April 2002 to August 2014, USDJPY is trading below the 200 week moving average. since 2014, it is trading above the 200 w moving average and the bollinger band width is tightened. this is a setup for a breakout and I will suggest an upside breakout. USDCHF have already reject to go futher south in two event EURCHF Floor Setup and Abandon event. At this moment SNB is running a massive currency risk. Her asset surges up from 40% of GDP in 2012 to 102% of GDP in 2016 and main exposure in foreign currency. so far compare to other currency like EUR, GBP, JPY.... the depreciation of CHF is very limited. USDCHF seems forming a bottom and set up for a breakout. the DXY is going to consolidate for a while, when USD surge again, look for sign of USDCHF breakout. a nice move should be expected.
by bruceyam
LONG EURCHF - SNB BID INTERVENTION @ THE 1.08 HANDLELong EURCHF - 9/10 Conviction: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan has said in the past that FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher when we were around this level previously. 2. Ive been looking for a way to effectively play long euro positioning based on the view that the ECB has come to an end of its record easing cycle, EURAUD bids felt pain in the front end of the week before popping following ECB thus I think EURCHF is a better suited proxy given the ultra low vol. 3. Volatility is also v low so risk of downside is limited, plus SNB are clear they will can intervene so the chance of long-term losses with this trade are close to 0, especially when you look at the price action 4. Over in rates the 3m euroswiss futures differential (dec-march) are implying a 2bps cut with dec -0.76 vs mar -0.78, whilst the 3m euribor implies 0.5bps of hikes with dec -0.31 vs mar -0.315.. both in recent months have experienced significant selling as rate cut hopes have plunged as inflation begins to show some footing especially in Energy. Trading Strategy - buy EURCHF <1.081 dips 1.09/1.096TP: 1. Buy EURCHF on any dips into the 1.081 level, 100pips TP but it is also advisable to take 50 or by looking at the intra day (1hr) moves even taking 10-20pips is possible several times a day as the market constantly moves higher after ANY dipping below the 1.08 handle. - i wont be running a stop on this trade given what my opinion of the SNB's commitment is and the very low IV and HV
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
22
LONG EURCHF - SNB BID INTERVENTION @ THE 1.08 HANDLELong EURCHF - 9/10 Conviction: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan has said in the past that FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher when we were around this level previously. 2. Ive been looking for a way to effectively play long euro positioning based on the view that the ECB has come to an end of its record easing cycle, EURAUD bids felt pain in the front end of the week before popping following ECB thus I think EURCHF is a better suited proxy given the ultra low vol. 3. Volatility is also v low so risk of downside is limited, plus SNB are clear they will can intervene so the chance of long-term losses with this trade are close to 0, especially when you look at the price action 4. Over in rates the 3m euroswiss futures differential (dec-march) are implying a 2bps cut with dec -0.76 vs mar -0.78, whilst the 3m euribor implies 0.5bps of hikes with dec -0.31 vs mar -0.315.. both in recent months have experienced significant selling as rate cut hopes have plunged as inflation begins to show some footing especially in Energy. Trading Strategy - buy EURCHF <1.081 dips 1.09/1.096TP: 1. Buy EURCHF on any dips into the 1.081 level, 100pips TP but it is also advisable to take 50 or by looking at the intra day (1hr) moves even taking 10-20pips is possible several times a day as the market constantly moves higher after ANY dipping below the 1.08 handle. - i wont be running a stop on this trade given what my opinion of the SNB's commitment is and the very low IV and HV
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
LONG EURCHF: POSSIBLE SNB INTERVENTION AT THE 1.08 HANDLELong EURCHF: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan says FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher/ Rate cut possible another 50bps. 2. Plus EUR vs CHF september rate expectations are skewed for a long EUR carry going forward + already EUR is more attractive than CHF (-0.4% vs -0.75% depo) - 1m CHF Libor currently pricing 25bps at 19% vs 1m EUR libor pricing 25bps at 12%. 3. Volatility is also v low so risk of downside is limitted, plus SNB are clear they will can intervene so the chance of long-term losses with this trade are close to 0. Trading Strategy - buy EURCHF <1.0799 dips 1.081/5TP: 1. Buy EURCHF on any dips below the 1.08 level, maximum of 100pips TP but much more advisable to take 50 or by looking at the intra day moves even taking 10-20pips is possible several times a day as the market constantly moves higher after ANY dipping below the 1.08 handle. - i wont be running a stop on this trade given the SNB's commitment and low IV and HV.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
7
EURCHF: SNB JORDAN - EYE & BUY 1.05/8, 80% SEPT CUT, STRONG CHFSNB President T. Jordan comment highlights: - If Needed, Can Cut Rates Further - 50bps to 1.25% possible until negative rates turn less effective - €˜Big Concern€™ Over Significantly Overvalued CHF in 2016 risk-off dominated year - CHF 3m Libor prices 80% chance of a 25bps cut (-0.75 to -1.00%) within 3 months (was only 40% before brexit) - Low bond yields not ideal for foreign-reserve management - Swiss central bank president currently doesn’t see need to act/ adjust policy, despite risks - Survey shows CHF needs to rise to 1.05 before rate cut President T. Jordan G20 Quotes: 1. “We are monitoring the situation very carefully: what are the consequences for inflation and growth in Switzerland, what are our policy options,” 2. Regards to ECB/ BOE future policy - “The franc remains significantly overvalued, it’s a big concern for us.” 3. “The low level of interest rates is of course not ideal for foreign-currency reserve management, but monetary policy is expansionary everywhere,” Jordan said. “That’s an environment we can’t change and we have to adjust our investment policy accordingly.” 4. “There clearly are risks,” but “whether they materialize or not is not in the hand of Switzerland,” he said. “It depends on the decisions Europe will take and how strongly they will affect the global economy and financial markets” and “we hope, of course, that sensible decisions will be taken.” Trading strategy: 1. Looking at the 1.08 level it looks like there is some clear SNB defence of this level, which is consistent with the SNB's comments that they have intervened at this level in the past (e.g. brexit). - So an easy strategy is to buy any <1.08 dips, with a 1.088-1.09tp as it looks as if there is some consistent buying from the 1.08 level to the 1.09 level so take advantage of this trend , lower the better, as it certainly looks as if the SNB is engaging in intervention at this level and will continue to do so - even if not officially as in the past with the 1.20 level. 2. Bloomberg Poll see's a definite SNB 25bps cut if the EURCHF drifts to the 1.05 level - so beyond buying 1.08 dips with perhaps 1lot, i advise strongly buying 1.05 and less dips with say 2-4lots based on heavy FX intervention directly or rate based if we were to such low levels. TP can be placed at the 1.08-9 level still - In terms of cutting capacity, also polled by BBG showed that the SNB has room for another 50bps of cuts before its negative policy may turn counterproductive - so this strategy is sound for now.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading