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NZDCHF: Monthly map - Potential long term NZD weakness aheadInformational chart only. If we cross the level price sits at confidently, we might retest lower areas, around the 0.63043 mark. I'll update with a shorter timeframe short entry. Currently in the middle of a very strong decline with no pause. Looks to be impulsive behavior after a long term consolidation. The triangle in CCI is wild speculation, but makes me think this consolidation phase is over. Among other factors, derived from observing multiple currency pairs.
by IvanLabrie
9
GBPCHF: intermediate term uptrendGentlemen, the SNB has done it again! As you can see, this isn't the first time their sudden intervention causes a disruptive gap which ruined thousands of people in one day. RIght now, there is a clear uptrend in place, showing new highs every 5 candles, and nice accumulation before sudden bursts of impulsive upwards action. There are hints at the possibility of the SNB buying back some Euros, which if they materialize, will fuel the ascent weakening the Swiss Franc vs the recently bullish Pound. If the Swiss National Bank does indeed pursue this route, then going long GBPCHF will be the ideal carry trade this year, as long as they don't modify their monetary policy and the BoE does hike interest rates as expected. I'll be looking at long opportunities only for the time being.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
Is the Swiss Franc to Blame for Gold's Pullback?The Swiss franc is lower on the day amid speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to actively weaken the currency. As you can see by the comparison, gold tracks the Swissy rather closely. Interestingly enough, gold's all-time high of $1,923 ended at about the same time the SNB decided to peg their currency to the euro. When the peg was first introduced, the single-largest daily inflow in the GLD occurred but had been wound down throughout the last few years. Traders matched that inflow into the GLD when the SNB pulled the plug on the peg. However, I think the SNB is playing with fire. They have already taken a 60 billion CHF hit to their FX reserves due to the abrupt end of the euro peg. Furthermore, it became too expensive to keep the peg on the euro, so the SNB will likely hint at intervention as a means to keep traders from piling into it. This could work in the short-term, but these methods usually do not have lasting effects. With a balance sheet of almost 90 percent of GDP, the SNB's bluff will likely be called out in the long-run. The franc has been a "safe" haven for investors, whether the central bank likes it or not. If global turmoil continues to strengthen, I expect the franc, and presumably gold, to increase throughout the year. Keeping in mind, there is a 40 percent weekly appreciation that has to be digested. The correlation should be watched further.
S
by CommoditiesTrader
13
Has the EURUSD-train left the station?Good question. A pretty weak currency, versus, clearly, the strongest. USDOLLAR is flying high, and the greenback has seen increases in 11 of the last 13 weeks. This is certainly reflected in the EURUSD which is dropping like a stone, and where there may be some time between significant setups, simply because of the speed of the drop. SNB’s stunt resulted in a further boost, which has pushed the price down below 1.1650 - the lowest price in 10 years. Momentum is so heavily bearish, and after SNB has pulled the peg, the largest bull in the EUR is gone. I have missed the train a couple of times, but with just a bit of positive announcements on Thursday from "Super Mario", and his friends, a general pullback in the EUR could easily happen. Here is the EURUSD one of the pairs I would look towards. The Friday (16/01) candle has formed a candle with a large lower shadow, while Monday's (19/01) candle, have formed an inside bar. This suggests, that this could be the next swing low, either due to profit-taking, or expectations for the ECB meeting on Thursday - or a combination of both. Whether or not the bulls will take momentum here, the next few days will tell. Should this happen, I do not think that the bulls will keep the momentum to break 1.20. This is a key level, combined with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, and probably, the 50ema will also come into play here. I expect that the bears will defend this level reasonably well, and therefore I look for 1.20 to jump on EURUSD train. If this scenario unfolds, I do not see why we should not fall to 1.14 and maybe even lower. Conversely, I think we should break above 1.25 before we can talk about a decent trend change, and I begin to consider buying. The break of 1.25, however, is reasonably unlikely within a reasonable time. Fundamental analysis is not my strongest side, but I'm afraid that expectations for the meeting on Thursday is too high, and if the ECB is not able to meet the expectations, EURUSD will fall further, and the train will move on. However, I am also very careful about jumping the gun. Either way, I look forward to the ECB meeting on Thursday. As always, further discussions, comments and feedback are always welcome. Happy Trading // Laban132
Short
by Laban132
Gold Surges on ECB QE Rumors and Market TurmoilOn January 6, I noted how the price action technicals were beginning to favor gold (here). Since, gold has begun to rally with force on both a global growth slowdown and increasing market turmoil. Naysayers will continue to hate gold, but both fundamentals and technicals remain supportive. The surprising (maybe not so much) move by the Swiss National Bank to abandon the EURCHF floor, in order to front-run the ECB’s QE announcement, sent shock waves through the financial system. It took only two months to axe the floor, following the gold referendum, after the SNB was so passionate about doing “whatever it takes” to defend the floor. Price action surged above the 200-day EMA, which was pointed out as a secondary resistance level after overtaking the $1,240 key resistance level. Psychological resistance will be placed around $1,260, while price action has a chance to challenge the overwhelming downward trend created in March 2014. Gold could find this challenging, as the focal ascending channel intersects the downward trend line at $1,272. It also corresponds with price action resistance. If price action is rejected, look for profit taking to take gold down to the 200-day EMA, perhaps the $1,240 level to test support. RSI is leading into an overbought condition, so this level could find consolidation before the next leg up. However, if gold can over take it, I look for $1,295 to be the next key level of resistance, while $1,300 will act as a whole-number, psychological resistance traders seem to like. Above that, $1,314 per toz. is favorable. We have now had several bars of strong, bullish volume above the 20-day average, and the ADX momentum indicator is ticking upwards – supporting the current uptrend.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by CommoditiesTrader
31
A less risky way to play SNB interventionSNB is currently under pressure with the current attack of the 1.20 floor on EUR/CHF. Not maintaining this floor would represent a serious credibility risk for the Swiss central bank. According to recent comments from Danthine and Jordan they will do everything to maintain the floor even using "unconventional measures" (like negative interest rate or ultimately printing money). Playing on EUR/CHF is now highly speculative and risky. One alternative to play an SNB intervention would be to go on a proxy pair, GBP/CHF looks relatively ideal. Fundamentals: SNB highly probable intervention, BoE about to hike the rates in 2015 Technicals: Current bullish trend, price testing a strong support zone and the 200 periods EMA, the stochastic oscillator comes in confirmation too showing a limited downside potential. We have two possible entries materialized by supports lines 1.5110 and below 1.4973. Trade setup: Aggressive entry long limit @ 1.5110 Alternative entry long limit @ 1.4975 SL@ 1.4900 TP@ 1.58
Long
by TheOnlyVince
2
EURCHF Long - triple (higher) bottoms at previous demand areaEntered EURCHF long at 1.2060 (76.4% of Sep H-L fib level - 1H bars seem to be adhering generally albeit with occasional false breakouts) 1.2050 was previous bid zone - triple bottom from Sep 14 onward Also market seemed to established the floor since Q4 2012 after SNB's 1.20 commitment Target 1.2110/20 area - between top of daily cloud (1.2110) and previous high in Sep (1.2117) Stop loss right below Sep low at 1.2044 Risk:Reward = 1:2 Portfolio wise, also trying to balance out the heavy EUR short.
Long
by Speculator2
Do Swissies Know Something? | $USD $CHF #SNB #FED #Forex $EURFriends, At this point, markets seem to have leveled off. In fact, USD started to rally, as it gains strength against most other currencies, except against the EURUSD, whose high of 1.38981 has remained unchallenged even after US markets closed. A look at a reverse correlated USDCHF, my predictive analysis and forecasting system remains neutral for the time being, while a prop pattern has emerged to indicate a probable rallying from the current level. I have defined a probable range of support (0.87522 to 0.87271), which should offer a significant support. A rallying from this range should concern the prospective or vested bear, unless price broke and closed below the lower value. A bullish scenario opens to an immediate mod/high-probability primary target @ 0.89792, and a low-probability secondary target @ 0.91374. OVERALL: A prop pattern calls attention to a potential reversal at these levels. A reverse correlation with EURUSD or positive correlation with GBPUSD is worth the glance. However, other charts, such as XAUUSD and USDollar have also posted similar signal of probable reversal at current price levels. While a prop pattern offers a signal of a potential reversal against a forecasting system that remains bearish, the net objective directional bias remains NEUTRAL for now. Cheers, David Alcindor Prop Trader Predictive Analysis and Forecasting ------------------------------------- Disclaimer: - All my predictive analyses, forecast and signals are based on unshared proprietary patterns, strategies and market research results, which shall remain unshared and unknown to you, the reader. So, do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
by 4xForecaster
4