SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Aug 16 WeekES1!
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Aug 16 Week
Weekly: Narrowing spread, tiny spread up, Effort No Result = Weakness
Daily: Ascend on declining volume, tiny spread Effort No Result = Weakness
H4: Market ended week in a 10pt rotation. Narrowing spread and effort no result
= Weakness
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject):
- 4463
- 4456
Strategy for Long (Test and support):
- 4412
- 4433
- 4443
- 4463 bullish absorption
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SNP
S&P500 Leading Indicator ScanRetracement clearly over, and now 5 out of 7 of my panel of leading indicators are suggesting that more crazy upside on the S&P500 is on the way. Only the High Yield Bonds and the Russell2000 have not taken off - yet.
On the contrary, we can visibly tell that the S&P500 is being stretched. It obviously is.
Nonetheless, expecting further gravity defying up spikes, at least for the next two weeks or so ... tread carefully!
Copper Prices giving a heads up... Earlier, I posted about the S&P500 defying gravity.
Another indication to support that view is here... COPPER.
It is well known for copper futures to lead/follow (takes turns) the equity markets. The reasons behind this phenomena is very fundamental, copper is used in production of many things, and in an economic upcycle, copper is one of the first metals required, in many forms from wires, to electronic parts.
So, superimposed is the SPX on /HG copper futures. You can see the love/hate correlation. It is just astounding.
Copper technicals are similar to that of 9 April 2020, as it bounces off the Gann fan support, breaks out over the trend line resistance... it appears bullish, even suggesting that it is looking for the last high.
So what might this mean for the S&P500?
S&P500 Index to push further, defying gravityThe week started out in perfect synchrony for a retracement, but barely two days later, it was erased, and the last day of the week saw a push for yet another historical high.
The weekly chart technicals are divergent, and the candlestick pattern suggest further gravity defying up thrusts, which may last through August.
The daily chart technicals were somewhat reset to baseline in the early part of the week, only to turn upwards by the end of the week, leaving a suggestion that momentum is likely to continue upwards. The spectacular Friday gap up and run marubozu formed certainly supports that indication. Pattern projections bring the immediate target to 4590 by mid-August. Further projections (non-technical) suggest a top about 4730 towards the end of September.
Defying technicals, momentum is taking over... caveat emptor!
SPX - There will soon be a denouement ❗Let's take a look at the S&P 500 chart. It is an index that accurately shows the financial health of the global economy.
Think back to the autumn of 2020, in just 30 days the market fell 30% and then recovered just as quickly, hitting new highs within a few months, enough time has passed since then. Was it a crisis, as many are calling it, or is it still ahead?
That's a difficult question to answer, but let's try to check the index from the technical analysis side!
The S&P has been trading along its trend line for over a year now, and I would like to clearly show you that the market is running out of strength to continue rising. Each wave is getting smaller and smaller, price has already tested the trend line 5 times. How many more tests can it take?
If the S&P breaks the trend line, it might be a good opportunity for selling, it is safer to wait for another test of the trend line as resistance.
Nearby liquidity zones that are likely to stop the price are marked below!
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
SPX500USD 2021 JULY 05 WEEK
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SPX500USD 2021 JULY 05 WEEK
New high achieved. Last bar closing on the low.
We will wait for Monday to see if this is mark down for buying or SOW.
Weekly chart : Weakness - shortening of thrust, diminishing volume as price advances
Daily chart : No significant weakness observed.
H4 chart: Last bar is an Upthrust. Wait for Monday to show us if this is mark down for buying or
if this is weakness.
Strategy:
1) If Upthrust for further buying: price goes below UT bar, wait for reversal price action or intermediate support to buy
2) If Upthrust is sign of weakness: Wait for price to come down, return to test the high and price rejection to short.
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S&P500 retracementThe next 2-4 weeks should see a decent 5% retracement of the S&P500.
Broken down of supporting trend line, Daily and Weekly indicators turning down, suggest very strongly a retracement is overdue.
Am not expecting it to be very deep, targetting 4020, or worse case, 3840.
Thing is, look out for the upside...
SPX500USD 2021 May 23 Week (Intraday)
SPX500USD 2021 May 23 Week (Intraday)
Weekly, Daily, H4 = Bullish
Last week a re-test of high H presented a good short into previous demand bar 1.
Market then again found its way to test H again.
Scenario:
1) Immediate support 4148 if broken, targets may be 4133, 4108, 4084
2) If there's price acceptance at 4178-4190 region accompanied by
healthy volumes on up bar, we may have a resistance turned support
long opportunity.
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S&P500 still latently bullish...Reviewing the S&P500 futures ES1! weekly chart...
The candlesticks are suggesting some bullish upside to surprise as the tails are at the bottom, when prices are at the top/ATH. The tails keep the index bouyant above the support region (yellow rectangle). This is in contrast to the expectation for a retracement, and instead may extend higher. The volumes are still strong and healthy.
However, the RPM and MACD are conflicting, with the short term RPM crossing up in a downward spiral, and the MACD crossing down.
Looking at the Top 8 traders and Non-commercial net position, there are less bearishness in the recent weeks.
My take is a bullish bias. :)
SPX500USD 2021 May 03 Week (Intraday)
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SPX500USD 2021 May 03 Week (Intraday)
Weekly, Daily - Bullish, H4 = Bearish
Last week, tradeable days were only 29-30 April as market was mostly horizontal prior to 29 April.
Last 2 bars displayed good reversal volume, let's see if this intermediate support can be an indication
of demand coming in.
Caution though if long, keep stops tight because:
Bar 1 is weak given and 2 bars after it doesn't show demand for higher prices.
Possible scenarios:
1) With the trap up move on 1, market may be keen to test the green zone
2) Market in rotation phase between 4124 - 4220, trades would be executed at the boundary.
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S&P500 Weekly Gravestone-like DojiNoted that the S&P500 is over extended with technical indicators suggesting decreasing momentum over the last few months, even as the index keep pushing new historical highs.
This week, another sign of the bullish stall comes in the form of a Gravestone Doji -like form. Read the link about such a candlestick pattern.
Over an above that, also noted that the Non-commercials and largest 8 traders are net short, and continue to be so for the last six weeks, at least.
Taken together, this are very clear and present warnings about a likely top being in place, albeit surprise blowouts may occur. Nonetheless, point here is that the cards are stacked on one side... choose where you stand.
SPX500USD 2021 Apr 19 Week (Intraday)
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SPX500USD 2021 Apr 19 Week (Intraday)
Again long on pullback worked for last week.
Last H4 bar, price went into overbought and returned into the channel.
Trade plan for this week is to continue to follow the channel and long
on pullback, preferably at bottom of channel.
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Have a good trading week ahead!
SPX500USD 2021 Apr 12 Week (Intraday)
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SPX500USD 2021 Apr 12 Week (Intraday)
Congrats to those who took long trade per last week's analysis.
Market was kind to materialize the AB=CD target of 4125, and reached 4132
on Friday.
Last H4 candle closed off its high, and we have reached the supply line of the
upward channel. This may present opportunity for short trades on LTF.
And again, also long on pullback
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Have a good trading week ahead!
S&P500 is overextended and... looks like it may continue for a couple of weeks, as it sputters discreetly, giving indications of a pullback... watch for it. Just too many reasons now.
The weekly ES1! chart shows indicators turning bullish again as ES1! hits the immediate resistance of a widening wedge, defying earlier technical signals.
Noted the Non-commercial and Top 8 Trader holdings are bearishly progressing, probably selling into the strength.
The daily chart shows how last week was pretty parabolic with the technicals suggesting overbought situations.
I wonder on two things now... how long more the party can last, and how ugly it would be when the party stops and the lights come on.
Tread very cautiously now!
SPX500USD 2021 Apr 05 Week (Intraday)
SPX500USD 2021 Apr 05 Week (Intraday)
Weekly / Daily / H4 = bullish
31 Mar - 01 Apr market advanced, albeit on reducing volume. Mark up
likely to continue, so we can look for long opportunity on lower TF when
pullback happens, preferably at 3991 or green zone.
Entry preference will be a the SR and the yellow line price reaction zone.
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Have a good trading week ahead!
SPX500USD 2021 Mar 29 Week
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SPX500USD 2021 Mar 29 Week
Weekly / Daily / H4 = bullish
Last week's short target of 3844 not reached, as price reversed at 3856 instead.
With climatic up bar into previous resistance,
may have opportunity for short when we see toppish pattern.
3844-3856 will be the immediate support.
Entry preference will be a the SR and the yellow line price reaction zone.
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Have a good trading week ahead!
SPX500USD 2021 Mar 22 Week
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SPX500USD 2021 Mar 22 Week
Weekly = Bullish | Daily = Bullish | H4
Last week's analysis, scenario 2 unfolded.
It appears high volume up bar Bar 1 has been negated by next bar's lower close.
Prefer to short on test of high, target 3844
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SPX500USD 2021 Mar 15 Week
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SPX500USD 2021 Mar 15 Week
W/D = Bullish (healthy buy volume)
Last week's analysis, 3844 was accepted and price moved up.
Some supply at top.
Scenario 1: If we can see strong volume pushing through old top,
will see good buy opportunity on lower TF when price down to test for supply around the
high volume region.
Scenario 2: in case of false break break, sell when price test the resistance
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Have a good trading week ahead!