snp undecided watching how things play outsnp on daily would not want to see a break on the recent uptrendline. If it does so, likely there would be more down side.
Friday's selling removed the whole of last week's mon-thurs up move which i anticipated. Let's monitor how things play out this week
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The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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Snp500
Watching for a bounce to resume uptrendSnp as covered last week, we were anticipating a downwards movement..so it did..right now...let's see if it pullback again upwards.
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
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#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 9.04-9.08Levels to Watch :
Current Resistance 4532.50 - 24.25
Targets if Over 4548.75 - 43.75 Key Resistance for Any Continuation 4570 - 62.50
Gap (Supply) 4590.75 - 70.50
Current Support 4508.75 - 02.50 Key Support 4487.25 - 79.75
Single Prints 4489.25 - 82.50 // 4469.25 - 57
Last Week :
Market opened right in our Current Resistance area for last week and we consolidated all night around it without getting any strong selling, once we ran out of supply we pushed and started holding above using the consolidation as Support which put our higher targets in play for the week. Once we got through Key Resistance with another consolidation under it, we got the next move towards the upper targets, we went through 4487-79 with ease and left single prints on the way up ( more trapped shorts) We did find good Resistance at our 4532-24 target and then just traded around it rest of the week.
This Week :
Seems like market flushed trapped Supply that built up at our HTF Resistance area into the cost basis, cleaned up under it as we didn't have the needed Support above and now we made another move back over the mean and over VAH with more strength and possible Support under. Quite a few might have gotten too short biased for continuation towards 4300-4200s that they may have been trapped again as market wasn't ready to continue just yet, which now may provide Support for us and if we can hold over 4487-79 then that could bring in more buying which could send us higher before we will see 4300-4200 again.
Going into this week we have single prints under us for potential Supports at 4508.75-02.50 // 448725-79.75 areas and 4532.50-24.25 as our Current Resistance needed to be taken out for higher prices.
For the Upside :
We want to wait and see what we do in this 4524-08 area as right now we are by resistance and would either want to see a test of 4508.75-02.50 and ideally we can't break or flush under and come back in, hold over that area can bring 4532.50-24.25 again and this is our area to watch for continuation. If we get through we could target 4548.75-43.75 and potential a move towards Key Resistance at 4570-62.50 BUT keep in mind that gap above it is our Supply still so closer we get the more supply we will have to chew through so will we make it all the way there or if we will be able to head towards it this week at all? 32.50-24.25 would be area to watch for that. We already made a big move last week and we might need some consolidation over 4487-79 which means it might need time for next move or could be done in smaller range moves higher.
For the Downside :
Todays sessions while markets were closed failed at 4532.50-24.25 Resistance and holding under it could give us the test of 4508.75-02.50, this would be area to watch for continuation lower, we could find Support but if we take out the stops and hold under we could try to make a move towards Key Support which would be our Single Print area, there are 2 sets of them on the downside and we would want to see if we can fill some of them or not. We would need to get through 4487.79 area with strong volume and hold under for any continuation lower.
We are currently in 4520-4480 range and we can spend some time balancing within until next move will be ready.
#ES_F Daily TF OutlookES broke into this bigger time frame Resistance are back in June, all the shorts who were looking for market crash or reversal got trapped below and became our Support.
Cost Basis was built on top of that in 4460-4375 range, once we ran the Stops over 4487 that provided the buying to get us towards the top for this Resistance at 4666-4570 but once we got inside we went sideways in a tighter distribution range instead of getting follow through.
In last weeks Weekly prep we knew that we needed to get over 4615-10 area and hold to see continuation higher from here and if not the buying up here was mostly momentum buying and if we start breaking lower stops we can continue lower back towards our Cost Basis areas.
08.01 We got that rejection from 4615-10 and opened on the gap under temp Support which meant the bid that held us up over 4590 on Tuesday was gone. Once we broke that structure and closed under we trapped buyers as supply.
What can we look forward to now? Well on bigger scale in my opinion we are in a bigger time frame distribution range, and the goal is to sell product at higher prices to the trapped shorts until market cleans up and decides on direction out of here. This might take some time to clean up as we had a big party getting back up here.
UNLESS Market gets under 4375-4290 area and holds under or gets over 4570-4666 and holds then we will balance in this range and do cleaning.
This broken structure now becomes our supply, we have Short Stops around 4530-50-60-70 areas but also Supply is right above it so they look pretty strong for now, our lower Support stops on the other hand don't look so strong because we have been away for some time.
If market takes out this 4590-80 area we could see continuation for more stops lower.
Going forward we can trade this range from area to area, unless we get a bigger change of direction and visible Structure breaks. If we stay in this range once we find Support trading might not be easy as we could get more choppy days and two way trading without much follow through because now we have Supply and most likely still have buying as well.
Unless we sell off hard here and break all the lower stops or bounce back over 4520 then we might see market consolidate around 4370-4500 area, holding under 4520-40 will mean continued weakness and I would think this can bring a test of 4300-4290-60 at some point by October. But we focus and gather new market generated information every day and update the outlook as anything can happen.
SNP likely heading for ATH again!Before it heading to ATH could have something it needs to do before that.
To find out what is it, do check out my stream!
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The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 8.27-9.01Levels To Watch :
Key Resistance 4445-37 // Current 4422.75-18.75 // 16.50 ?
Target if over 4465-60.25 // 87.25-79.75
Current Support 4478.50-74.75 // Key For Continuation Lower 4362.75-55
Targets if under 4349.50-45 // 38.50-31.50 // 27.25-21.50
*** 4405.25-4392.25 ? This was previous Key Resistance and 4416-05 is our VAL on 4hr, we closed within it but we don't know if it will act as Support or not, If market cant hold over it then that would be our sign of weakness.
Last Week :
Going into last week 4378-74 was our pinata low for the week to crack in order to see lower prices, as discussed in last Sundays prep IF we do hold over it then that could bring tests of Current Resistance // Key Resistance and if we hold over then that could bring the test of higher stops. We were able to clear all the upper stops and back fill towards our HTF Mean area around 4487-60 but the run up was done after hours/Globex and market just couldn't hold, closer we got to RTH the more selling came in.
End of week we ran out of buying and inventory flushed back under Key Resistance, broke our Pinata Low with volume but buying came in at Current Support for the week which pushed us back over 78-74 and into Resistance. One of the things I noticed is how long it took us to clean up under 4405 to get back inside value, if we trapped size and had strong buyers here would it take us that long to push back inside value?
This Week :
This week we are set to open around our VAL 4416.50-05.25, under Supply that was again trapped over 4420 and close to our bigger Supports.... sounds fun! So where can we head from here?
We had some strong selling Thursday/Friday out of our VAH and Value area but our range Support held the tests and gave us a close back in Key Area. Seems like buying here from last week is just short covering and new longs who aren't strong enough to hold us up over Key Areas just yet with stronger buying coming below 4370s.
For the Downside - IF the Market can't hold over 4416.50 that would signal continued weakness and if 4405.25-92.25 area doesn't act as Support then we could see more selling. If we break and start holding below that it could bring in test of Current Support at 4378.50-74.75 IF we break it again that would give us another chance at lower targets.
4362.75-55 Would be the Key area to hold under during the week, under we could see more weakness towards 4349.50-45 // 38.50-31.50 // 4327.25-21.50 These areas are close to our HTF Key Support so watch out for buyers at first tests and even possible a stronger bounce? If the market shows. We do have Contract Roll Gap under and we would have to see if we have enough supply to get inside it to maybe make a move towards bigger Support or no?
For the Upside - IF 4405.25-4392.25 can act as Support and Market can hold over it then that could bring in more buyers to get us back over VAL at 4416.50. We would need to get over that and hold over 22.78-18.75 which is a pretty big Current Resistance as we didn't have much buying over it last week. Only holding over that can bring higher prices and give a chance at 4445-37.75 which would be our mean and next Key Area to get through/hold over.
Unless we can do that then I would be careful trying to long unless its from Support areas if they show holds or strong buying from targets if they happen. Possible stronger buying area could be 4431.50-21.50 and under IF we get there.
** We could as well spend time in range under Value between 4420s-4370s-50s without going too much lower as this is still area of buying and unless we hold under/over Key areas then need to be careful. We do have lots of Market moving data this week so hopefully we can get some good trading and wont stay in range.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep for Week 8.20-8.25Levels to Watch :
Resistance - Current 4392.25-86.75 // Key for Continuation 4405.25-4398
4422-18.75 // 4434.75-28.50 // 4445-37.75
Support - Current and for continuation lower 4367.25-59.50
4349.50 // 4327-21.50 ? Not Tested.
Key HTF Support 4291.50-65.50
I wouldn't say 4378.50-74.75 is currently Support unless Globex can Hold over.
Last Week :
Beginning of the week market opened and held Current Support which gave a push back inside our Key Resistance area with a what could seem like a strong end of day push/close. To me it seemed like an end of day stop run to sell into, our theme has been sell what we can at lower prices while buyers are there then once buyers run out we move lower trapping new buyers above. Another red flag was that we didn't fully take out that 4502-09 area.
Tuesday Globex made a push out of Key Resistance, went sideways and failed which is what started our next move towards lower targets. We hit both of the big targets lower in one week, can see that closer to our bigger Support areas we were getting the more consolidation we needed to continue but we made it there.
4374-62-49 was our Key Support area on Friday and we needed to hold under for any continuation, this was also a big target where shorts would be taking profit and covering.. especially into the weekend, as well a Support everyone had their eyes on for possible bounce they have bene waiting for while its coming down? Support held and surprise we again got a stop run end of day back towards our Resistance for the day at 4392.
This Week :
This week might be a bit tricky, we had some good selling going down towards our lower targets but we are now getting closer to our bigger Support areas and there is starting to be more congestion around here. It doesn't look like there is enough strong buying here to just give us a bounce or a big reversal yet. We are still under the Supply and have been trapping more on the way down so this could take some time to clean up and or a another flush towards bigger Support where we could find a bigger bid that can give us a stronger move up or at least better hold to start bigger consolidation.
Currently our inventory is in this 4392-4362 range and we are looking to see where it could move, most of the inventory is built up over 4375 because we didn't spend as much time under it Friday. We have 4392-4403 as our Key Resistance and we would want to see market be able to push over it and look strong over it before we can start thinking of bigger reversal to head for higher stops, if we can't then that means continued weakness for now. If we do hold over 74 area and get over 92-98 then we will have a chance over Key Resistance.
If we get under 4378-74 we could see more selling towards lower Support, if that doesn't hold we have a chance for continuation lower where our targets would be 49.50 - 30s, possibly test of 27-21.50 and maybe that Contract Roll Gap area? which so happens to be above our HTF Key Support area. We will have to see if we can get in that space and fill it or do we find buyers to possibly give us a hold/pull back. If that doesn't hold we have 4310-4291 as our bigger time frame range low and its possible to either find a bigger bid or at least enough buying for hold/some sort of reversal IF we get there and of course if we find that.
Market made a big move lower and now might need time clean up, we will have to see what kind of action we get.
A potential bounce for snp at current level..daily still would be a downtrend but might have a bounce ,can wait a bit to short the snp500
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Combined US Indexes slammed into the wall…Bear in mind that the most obvious is the clearest (pun not intended).
The combined weekly charts stalled and reversed to breakdown hard and fast. Technical point to more downside, after a relief bounce due soon. This September already starts to look really bad for the equity markets.
The daily support will be tested, and expected to eventually break. Then the weekly long term support would be duly tested, will it break?
Tides are changed, more to come…
Exploring the S&P500: Decoding the Market Maker-Here's my quad chart analysis of ES1!, the S&P500 futures index, displaying striking accuracy with Fibonacci retracements.
-The top two boxes present micro charts on daily tf's, showing recent Fibonacci-based peaks and troughs. The bottom two are weekly schematics on 3 Day tf's, revealing longer-term trends obediently following Fib levels.
-KEEP IN MIND THE BOTTOM TWO "WEEKLY" ARE ACTUALLY 3 DAY CHARTS MAPPING A WEEKLY SCHEMATIC
-This alignment suggests the Market Maker's playful maneuvers before an anticipated significant move. Based on the patterns, I hypothesize a considerable downtrend on the horizon for the S&P Futures Index (ES1!).
-Remember, market predictions aren't set in stone and require vigilance. However... dump city here we come.
The History of the Stock Market: Path of Orwellian ControlThe History of Modern Humanity is flawed. A lie is a better word. Our history starts with the S&P being formed in 1870. We then have the Invention of the Telephone and the lightbulb a few years later... (What a Coincidence)
We see the impossible to construct Worlds Fairs Buildings of 1883 knocked down and our history rewritten. The Market has been turned into a weapon. In fact it has always been a weapon. "New inventions every few years when the time is right" to keep the market on its feet and the people under control.
SPY signals danger...Seldom you get to see my SPY chart, and the hand is shown here. A more detailed hand as the situation warrants a good understanding and effort to read too.
Summary line is that there is a retracement in play, already if you had not noticed yet. Furthermore, this retracement should last to November. Good thing is that it is still possible to be shallow, although I rather think not.
Starting with the weekly chart and candelsticks... its kinda bad for now. Last week saw a Dark Cloud Cover / Bearish Engulfing candle. And middle of this week appears to have a follow through to complete a potential three outside down.
The TD Setup already indicates a pull back is due, with the 409 level as the critical support. Primary trend is still bullish, but wait to see how (not) shallow this retracement would be. Based on the techincal indicators MACD and VolDiv, it appears that 400 is a possible target.
For now, MACD is tapering off indicating a shallow retracement, for now. The VolDiv appears more bearish, and already heads up the retacement weeks ago.
Just want to highlight the time lines... Noted the previous time lines, and the decent accuracy of the tops and bottoms correlation.
Based on this only... end August appears to be a bad time for the S&P500, and until mid-November 2023.
At this point, correlating with the VIX/VXX and bond markets, it still appears that the markets are confused into a standstill... and something might be tipping the scales to the bear side in a while later.
Looking forward...
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 7.31-8.05 Last Week : We continued our distribution above 4570 which is our bigger time frame Resistance area. We have been going sideways building up supply here with a few attempts to continue towards upper part of HTF Resistance at 4666 but were met with selling. Key Support and Key Resistance for the week provided great trades up and down the range. Thursday we trapped buyers over 4615-4603 Resistance which gave us a look above and fail, market flushed but wasn't just yet ready to break 4570-62 and who ever got too short Thursday at the lows provided us with buying on Friday to bring us back towards our trapped supply area or start at Key Resistance.
This Week : We have been building Supply in this 4570-4615 range for almost 2 weeks with a failure to get current Key Resistance. We have stops lined up below us and trapped buyers above, this tells us if the market cannot get over 4614 area, hold and then take out 4628-23 then we shouldn't be looking for continuation higher for now.
Previous Day and T2 highs are right above us with trapped time and volume over 4615.
If market cant get over 4615 and accept then we would look for rotation lower as the longs who are buying in this range are not getting the upside and could start selling out. If we start triggering lower stops that can bring more selling. If current Cost basis and Swing Stops below 4562 get taken then we could see a move towards the stops at 4548.75-43 with a look under around 4637 and possibly test our next Key Support at 4532.50-24.
Our next cost basis would be just under that and we could see buying front running that area on first attempts unless we will have size selling that could break it and continue then we could stay around that lower range this week that is IF we break of course.
For the market to continue higher we would need to either see buying to take us over 4615 right away and hold above trapped last weeks shorts under for support or get under 4603, build a base above 4590 and then take out 4603-10 again, after that I think we could target next ranges Resistances and stops.
Levels to Watch :
Current Support : 4603-4598.75
If Broken Could Target 4589.50-84.75 // 4570-62.50
If Broken Could Target 4551.25-48.75-43.75
Next Key Support 4532.50-24.25 Possible to see buyers around 4537 on first tests
Current Key Resistance 4614.50-9.75
IF broken and hold above Could Target 4623-28
Next Key Resistance 4646.25-4336.50
SPY with a Classic RestestTraders,
In my last post I alluded to SPY. I stated that it remained in breakout territory which is still true today. I stated that as long as we remain above 450, I remain bullish. Still true. In fact, all that has happened here is that we have a classic retest of previous resistance taking place currently. If we break below, another story may unfold and I will have to re-assess. But as of this post, 450 is holding strong and the retest (if it holds) is yet another rather bullish signal.
Stay tuned,
Stew