[SnP 500] WarningFrom a technical point of view, the SPX is in a rising wedge pattern with bearish divergences on the indicators and a FIBO retracement near 61.8%.
From a macro point of view, it should be remembered that all inflationary shocks have always caused a recession, the warning signs of which are bank failures (Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank and soon PacWest).
In the short term, the market drop will surely be triggered by the US debt crisis.
Snp500
Profits Over Patients: The Morally Complex Realm of Big PharmaThis strategy dissects the dual nature of big pharmaceutical firms like Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, Moderna, and Merck & Co viewed through base Fibonacci Extension Clustering. Despite big pharma's significant contributions to healthcare, these firms have benefited from questionable practices, including price manipulation and exploiting addictions . Price manipulation is a notorious strategy where companies arbitrarily hike drug prices, often without any significant improvements in their efficacy.
"Big Pharma" has faced backlash for allegedly contributing to the opioid crisis . By aggressively marketing highly addictive pain medications , they may have exacerbated a public health catastrophe, leading to thousands of deaths annually.
Such practices illuminate the immoral landscape of the pharmaceutical industry. While these firms play a vital role in global healthcare, their business tactics often prioritize profits over patients, demanding a closer scrutiny of this sector's ethics.
1. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Around $440 billion
2. Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Around $240 billion
3. Moderna Inc. (MRNA): Around $110 billion
4. Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK): Around $200 billion
TOTAL = 1 Trillion
Overvalued Tech: Time for Tangible Assets & Fair ValuationsThe tech sector, specifically the 'Big Tech' companies have seen massive gains since the massive accumulation in 2010-2014. However, these increases seem disconnected from the companies' actual value or tangible contributions to the real-world economy. Their high price-to-earnings ratios suggest overvaluation and potential for a market correction.
Invest in sectors with real-world utility and reasonable valuations - Allocate capital to sectors like industrials, materials, consumer staples, or healthcare. These sectors provide tangible products and services and often have more reasonable valuations.
1. High Valuations: Tech stocks, in particular, often trade at high multiples of their earnings or revenues. These high valuations can make them more vulnerable to market downturns, as they can fall more dramatically if investors reassess their growth prospects or risk tolerance.
2. (GOOGL, APPL, AMZN, MSFT, META, NVDA, ADBE, and TSLA) all represent a significant portion of the SNP-500 index due to their large market capitalizations.
3. So, in a S&P-500 meltdown , these tech companies could potentially see significant declines in their stock prices due to these factors. However, it's important to remember that the specifics would depend on a wide range of factors, including the reasons for the market downturn, the companies' financial health and growth prospects, and overall investor sentiment.
4. I would choose Tesla as the only pick out of all 8 as this company has shown lots of potential compared to our tech giants of the now. Even with the upbringing of AI it is not enough to save google or meta, but Apple and Microsoft might hold up strong as they are largest caps.
5.
Google (Alphabet) : ~$1.5 trillion
Apple Inc. (AAPL): ~$2.5 trillion
Amazon (AMZN): ~$1.7 trillion
Microsoft (MSFT): ~$2.2 trillion
Meta Platforms : ~$1 trillion
NVIDIA (NVDA): ~$500 billion
Adobe (ADBE): ~$300 billion
Tesla (TSLA): ~$800 billion
TOTAL = 10 Trillion roughly
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VConditions appear to be shifting really quickly... just a few days ago, it appeared that the SG10Y Govt Bond was going to break a low and go further down, sending the correlated S&P500 (and other indexes rallying up. BUT, it brooke down and recovered very quickly. NOW, it appears to be ready to break UP and out of the downtrend line. This has happened before, including the indication of the MACD (shown here this time), where there is also a bullish divergence and just now, a crossover of the MACD on the Signal line.
Therefore, expecting a repeat of early Feb 2023, and IF this is the case, then the corresponding SPY action would be a lower high and a breakdown (red dotted arrow projects the SPY (blue line).
Watch the next 5 trading days... critical clues will be revealed.
Btw, if this scenario is played out, then the USD should concomitantly be bearish, Gold bullish, Crude bearish for the most part, etc.
Also... for those who are like keen to get the SG bonds, the yields should be rising, not dropping, so no need to rush. Have a good idea of what might happen (don't listen wholesale to those who want to get you to buy stuff), then make a plan to have that idea happen.
So far, five parts to this story, and so far it is holding the correlation as expected.
Combined US indexes - Where the spike up?IF you are getting a little frustrated, I am too... something is building up and meanwhile there is a lot of conflicting signals.
The week passed, and it appears to suggest the opposite now... a breakdown is more likely... 60/40 in favour of a breakdown, if I may quantify.
Set up the Breakout and Breakdown levels, and waiting for some real commitment.
Meanwhile, MACD histograms indicate a bearish divergence
VolDiv crossed down too.
Very simply... volatility coiling to spring, and if no break out soon, it will breakdown. Sounds a bit obvious, but watching it pan out is half the fun.
Enjoy!
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAY 15 WEEKCME_MINI:ES1!
Are we seeing the bearish ascending triangle already?
As with NQ, tendency to take rotational trades has diminished.
Scenario Planning:
1) If market remain within 4163 - 4118 = No trade
2) Larger rotation 4198 - 4068 = trade at boundary of range
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Lower vol down bar close off low = some demand present
Daily: Lower vol down bar close off low = some demand
present
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4198 4163-4118 (No trade zone)
4065
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For educational purpose only.
S&P 500 - bull and bear thesis$ES_F AMEX:SPY SP:SPX
Hourly timeframe
* The next obvious move for SPY is to fill the gap at $422.16 and possibly go to the $327.83 gap fill as well
Bull: A continuous close above $416.14 will take us to the $422.16 gap fill
Bear: Another rejection at $416 will take us to $405
TIP off?Overlayed the TIP a chart with SPY (blue line). Quite clear that TIP (amongst JNK/HYG and even copper) precedes the index.
Given all previous analyses and outlook, what we would like to see is that TIP break out and above its trend line resistance, as does its VolDiv. When this happens, can expect a bullish advancement.
MACD has not yet turned to crossover, but VolDiv is already giving us a heads up tip off! < Pun not intended >
Combined US indexes suggest a spike upThe Combined US indexes chart ended the week with a bearish candlestick that had a little bullish indication with a longer tail and closing above the support line (aka Fake Out Line #2).
This is slightly bullish and represents a chance for the earlier projected target of 668 to be achieved in the coming week or two. Yes, technical indicators appear to suggest that it is a bit stretched but it does look as if it would like to spike up, maybe in a blow off top fashion.
This is aligned to the USD drop described earlier.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAY 08 WEEKCME_MINI:ES1! ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAY 08 WEEK
Are we seeing the bearish ascending triangle already?
As with NQ, tendency to take rotational trades has diminished.
Scenario Planning:
1) Rejection short at 4175 / 4068
2) If market decides to spring a surprise, long on test of break of
4198 and finds support
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
Daily: High vol narrow spread S>D bar = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4198 4068
3928 3788
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
So now back down to the 200 day?Traders,
We have now touched the underside of our macro uptrend (3) three times and the bulls have been unable to break to the topside again. Is is time for them to sit the bench for a few weeks, get their wind back, and let the bears take us back down to retest that 200 day one more time? It might be.
Stew
Combined US market analysis - Going UP!From the combined weekly chart, it appears that the indices are bullish and on the way up.
1. Tested, bounced off and broke above the Fake Out Lines;
2. Last week's candle is obviously bullish with momentum
3. MACD and VolDiv are both supportive of bullish upside
4. TD Sequential primary trend is bearish, but the current setup appears to aim for a completion over the next 2-3 weeks.
5. Closed at the highest point for 2023 last week
Taken together, there is enough bullish momentum to push forth and upwards.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 APR 17 WEEKCME_MINI:ES1!
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 APR 17 WEEK
Friday's bar closed below 4175 and showed a rejection
of higher prices.
Scenario Planning:
1) Rejection short at 4175
2) Market rotation continues = trade at boundary (80pt range)
of range (grey box)
3) Rotation breakout long at support of 4175
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
Daily: High vol narrow spread S>D bar = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4175 4096
3928 3788
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
Nas and Snp could be turning down...4080 for snp is a important level to watch..
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Bullish above last month HIGH Buy signal still valid SPX SPY SNPWith all the Doom & Gloom regarding recession worries we liked our idea even more so into Q1 close last month.
So far so good however we are still very early in Q2.
We remain bullish above last months high (March 2023)
Seeking Pips will be managing our positions on the Weekly and Daily charts.
We also note that the current price is also in a key Fib retracement zone to SELL SPX on the monthly chart so we will not be surprised to see another pullback, again we would consider adding to our core position if this happens and volatility is right.
Our Bull & Bear price level is clear and as long as we above it we want to be buyers only.
A failure of March 2023 Low we would have to revaluate our current thesis.
Happy trading have a GREAT WEEK.!
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SPX RALLY CONTINUESAll indicators are showing a continuous rally on the SPX. Despite closing lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, the index rebound in the next two trading days and almost managed to reach the opening levels from Tuesday.
Both MACD and RSI are confirming the bullish trend, with MACD histogram being above zero and RSI above 50 neutral line.
If this scenario continues, the price might reach levels of 4312.In the opposite scenario, as a pivot point might be viewed the price of 4000, after it new lows of 3925 might be reached.
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