Double Harmonic Shark PatternsCTCUSDT looks super bullish to complete the inner Harmonic Shark Pattern for the near future then will start a huge decline in price (50% drop) towards that lower Order Block.
Snp500
SPX shortA sweep of the level of 4080 will give a reaction and we will go down, in general it is not yet clear why, after yesterday's negative report on GDP, the index continues to grow. Bull trap.
Too big to fail?Dejavu of 2008 recession is looming here in the world stock markets.
This is not a joke.
Deutsch and Cahrles Schwab are having troulbes.
What if...more banks are revealing to fail.
Are they too big to fail?
MACD is getting bearish and all charts are indicating that parachutte mode is on.
Looks like we are on the edge of the mountain.
Nasdaq Does Not Look GoodA Bullish Crab Harmonic pattern on the Nasdaq Index. Currently we might see prices head higher to garb liquidity from the higher at the bearish order block. By mid of 2023 we would prices reach the 6k USD levels.
it is time to let the stock to be free spx showing some bearish movement today.
I ananlyzed the weekly and monthly candles both.
Candle is changing from bull to Bear right now.
This kind of pattern shows very dangerous powerful crash.
Maybe the big short will come soon.
Dejavu of 2008 crash,.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 27
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 27
I won't be trading till the new month starts.
Keep profits and rest if target has been reached, and also
chart is messy at the moment.
Can't imagine a new quarter is starting soon!
Scenario Planning:
1) Possible short if market tests previous rotation area
(grey box)
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = possible weakness
= Supply remains
Daily: Mark up on lower volume = possible buyer's trap
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4082 3928
3788 3502-3580
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
Higher timeframe perspective of snpThis would have similar bias for nasdaq as well.
Looking at the us major index to be up on the near to mid term..downtrend has changed and market should be getting ready to pounce higher!
3D overview on e-minishort term short
mid term bullish
long term at potential decision point.
Needs to reach above where outlined our continue lower
NASDAQ - the candlestick that broke its backThe NASDAQ (and other indices like the SPY/SPX) appears to have what I would call the decisive candlestick(s).
For the NASDAQ, it appeared ready to break out and then it epic failed with a long tailed dark cloud cover type of candle. Speaks so much to say that it is heading down. IF it is as expected, then we should see a break down below the red box (outlined yellow), the break down area. This are holds a number of supports and breaking down below should see it pushed to 11750 support area around mid-April.
IF this is a wrong technical read, then 13,000 shoudl be easily attained and maintained. At this point, I do not see that happening, if at all.
Still early in the down draft, so technical indicators are not yet aligned.
Note to add...
SPY's candlestick closed the gap as well!
#ES_F 3.22.23 Day Trading PrepFED Day!
Market might be gearing up for a big move today, on a bigger timeframe we found our top, found or low and now back to the middle of the range. Yesterday showed us that we still have buyers but most of the buyers right now are large short covering and momentum longs from Daily Support which puts us in interesting spot. Currently over 4012-3990 Daily Support inside Previous Days Range and looks like accepted in a bigger 4100-4000 range which to me says possibility that we push higher before or on the Fed BUT I also think that is a spot where we can find size sellers as well and if we will have Supply this thing is not held up by much Support IF 4012-3890 breaks and take out 3976-71 thing could get ugly to the downside with lower Daily Support to watch at 3915-3890 and if things get ugly to 3800-3790 but that only happens I think IF we do make a push towards 4084-4100 and cant hold/reverse. Currently we are in this 4046-4000 range if we can hold 4030-25 possibly move towards that 4061-46 area and then we can watching if we can continue out of it before the fed or not and if we fail to hold 4030-25 could head for our lower support.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 4123-4100 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77 Current 4046-42 For Continuation Higher 4061-56
Support : Key Daily 4012-3980 // 3915-3890 // 3810-3790 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 3994-90 // 3976-71 Current 4030-25 ?
Rally in $SPX Expected to Fail According to Elliott WaveS&P 500 (SPX) rally from 10.13.2022 low was in 3 swing and ended wave (2) at 4194.16 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Wave (3) lower is now in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 3943.08 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 4078.49. The Index extended lower again in wave ((iii)) towards 3842.91 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 3937.27. Final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 3838.24 which completed wave 1. Wave 2 rally is now in progress to correct cycle from 2.3.2023 high.
Internal of wave 2 is in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 3964.46 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 3901.27. Final leg higher wave ((c)) is in progress to correct cycle from 2.3.2023 high before the decline resumes. Potential target higher is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((a)). The area comes at 4030.8 – 4110.1. From this area, sellers can appear and the Index can resume lower again. As far as pivot at 4194.16 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
Will explain why market will go upPlease, look at the chart that SPX broke the long term downside trend since this year early-January .
If you see my previous analysis I was very bearish since middle of 2022.
Normally long term down trend reversal last at least 6months.
Upside has shown for 3months now.
I personally belive that one more quarter is left to play bullish further more.
1st. the gold price is holding strongly.
2nd. the copper price is holding strongly.
3rd. goverment yield is falling sharply.
4th. Dollar index is indicating bearish signs now.
I saw lots of positivie signals in 2020 march despite the covid crashing destroyed all equities.
This pattern looks similar now.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 20
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 20
No trade for SnP last week since levels not reached.
Scenario Planning:
1) Trades will be guided by the channel
2) Long on support and accept of 3788 // 3893
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: High vol up bar close above middle = demand
Daily: No Supply ave vol down bar
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4094 3928
3788 3502-3580
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
#ES_F 3.14.23 Day Trading Prep Monday 3.13.23 Review : We got a break of structure and 3892-87 level before RTH and got the flush to one of our possible Support targets at 3866-47, RTH order flow came in and and pushed us back in balance above, over all a great day we tagged Support target and hit Key Intraday Resistance at 3932-27 which gave another good short for the day back towards 3892-87.
Tuesday 3.14.23 Prep : We are currently Inside T2 Range, inside Previous Day Range and right around our Daily Support of 3915-3890 which we already broke multiple times. Currently our balance is 3932-3890 and we are waiting to see if we will make a move out today and continue lower or reverse/stay in balance? T2 and Previous Day buyers might have been just short covering and not real buying which means if more supply comes in today the lower levels wont hold... We are watching 3892-87 as our Key Support for continuation lower if we break and hold under we can see a move down towards our lower Support and Previous Day Low, IF that breaks (3853-47) We watch for possible continuation from there, our next Daily Support area is at 3809-3787 depending how much Supply we have we might find more short covering before next Daily Support as but if we have enough our bid is under 3800 which another area of buyers at 3776-60. If we do hold 3892-87 Today we watch if we will trade within this balance and possibly make a run at upper Supply area at 3953-40 but we must take out 3932-27 and hold 3915-10 for that to happen if not we can rotate lower. Data coming 8:30 today, might be good wait until it shows clear direction or until things settle down.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 3957-53 // 3988-76 Key Intraday 3932-27 // 3944-40 // 3976-71
Support : Key Daily 3914-3890 // 3809-3787 Key Intraday 3892-87 // 3878-74 // 3853-47 // 3809-05 Current 3900
SPX500 Short-Term Bearish Analysis/ExpectationThe most logical target for the downtrends in the SPX500 is this year's low at 3814.
The scenario described in the chart is the most likely if the sellers want to hit this target in the short term. Given the high volatility, this scenario doesn't have such a high probability to occur compared to a normal market state.
This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF (IS THE KING)
- ETC
#ES_F 3.13.23 Day Trading Prep Friday 3.10.23 Review : Friday played out exactly within plan except for hitting 3866-47 target but we knew that was a stretch, we found sellers at 3976-71 which was Key Intraday Resistance which gave us nice short trades towards Daily Support at 3915-3890, was a very nice ending to the week.
Monday 3.13.23 Prep : As we can see Globex started the party early, first we opened and got a big move away from Daily Support which is expected any first tests of big areas more often than now will give a good reaction, we hit 3976-71 area sold our position on the way there and introduced more supply. Currently we are under T2 Range and under quite a bit of Supply still, there is no data or events today but we are at possible Daily Support area so if we get continuation how much of it will we get? We have 3915-3890 as our Key Daily Resistance and holding under could bring continued weakness, if we do hol dunder and take out 3878-74 that opens the door for our lower Support and 3853-47 test, if that breaks we watch for continuation towards our next Daily Support at 3809-3787 but could see buying come in before that around 35-25 area unless we are going down on strong volume and will just take those areas out. For us to see stability today we need to hold this 3866-53 area and push back inside previous days range but for now signs are pointing towards the downside unless the RTH order flow tells us otherwise.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3915-10 // 3931-27 3944-40 Current 3892-87? 3901-98
Support : Next Daily 3809-3787 Key Intraday 3866-63 // 3853-47 // 3839-35 // 3809-05 Current 3878-74? 3866-63
*** Careful trading today market has been acting weird since globex, we are at an area of bigger support so we have buyers BUT we also have size coming out and possible continuation to margin calls or size getting out unless we can hold this support area.
S&P500 / SPY up for a good bounceHere is what I see and why I think the S&P500 is due for a good bounce...
From the weekly chart,
1. The candlestick pattern is a rather bullish one. The candlestick itself from last week is beautifully bullish.
2. Last week's candle bounced off a very critical meeting point - 23EMA, trend line retest, a higher low, and a possible pivot of a triangle.
3. The VolDiv has crossed over. MACD did so too, and moderated a bit, so now waiting for more upside to pushing the alignment.
4. TIP, TLT, JNK leading indicators are also indicative of bullish upside.
5. USD is looking precarious to tip over and retrace. This bodes well for bullish upside.
One more condition needed... to close the weekly candle gap, and close the week decisively above 410.
One caveat is that a sudden turn of events, which at this point is not likely IMHO. Perhaps from May 2023...
all the best!
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 16
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 16
Scenario1 4094 short again! Hope you had taken the trade.
No trend changing principles observed, short
preferred.
Scenario Planning:
1) Short if 4094 / 3928 is rejected
2) Long on support and accept of 3788 // 3928
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave (higher vol down bar) close toward low
= Supply remains
Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = some demand noted
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4094 3928
3788 3502-3580
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
my conclusion for s&p 500 for final bull run wave 5I was staying on cash for awhile. I wanted to short the market before the end market is over.
However I decide to belive the bullish pattern for now.
I don't saying that this will create full blowing scale bull's move.
But few more steps more to go.
You could feel that I wan confused also. Most people would get mixed up signal also.
I had some good sleep and meditation.
Finally I came up with this idea.
Sorry for the mixed signal. I don't think economy will last forever with this high inflation and pce data.
However FED will increase only 25bp in march.
So this hype will last until 22nd of March.
After Fed shows some dovish decision, people will think that we won the inflation but this could be the last bull run.
#ES_F 3.09.23 Day Trading Prep Wednesday 3.08.23 Review : Consolidated under previous Daily Support with a few attempts to break 3976-71 Key Intraday Support but we held within this 4015-3975 balance. Best trade was when we hit double top in E 11:30 Period, gave a nice trade down to Intraday Support, was thinking we fill finally have more supply to break and continue but so far that has not been the case which tells us its controlled mark down selling with stops at good support areas.
Thursday 3.09.23 Prep : Will see continuation lower today or do we have enough to again hold and maybe even push higher? We have been holding under Previous Daily Support of 4012-3990 for two days now with Supply trapped above. We are looking like we could see more selling today as we are at the T2 and Previous Day Lows, under Previous Daily Support, have Supply above and have this nice sideways action to built up, 3976-71 is again our Key Intraday Support to watch as that is the area we need to take out and accept under to see a move towards next potential Support to see what we do there. If we do hold Intraday Support or bounce from 3957-53 area and get back over 3976-71 then we could see more balancing action in this 4025-3976 range, 3995-90 is our Current Resistance and 4012-08 will be our Key Resistance today.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4012-08 // 4030-25 Current 3995-90
Support : Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 // 3957-53
#ES_F 3.08.23 Day Trading Prep Tuesday 3.07.23 Review : Tuesday Globex went sideways all night building up supply under resistance until it finally broke before RTH giving us a break under 4030-25 and acceptance into 4025-3976 range and a move into Potential Daily Support for the Day. We did hold 3994-90 level yesterday but we did a full break of this Daily 4012-3890 area which told us buyers here are not that strong and we now have more Supply above us from this move up.
Wednesday 3.08.23 Prep : Globex again went sideways all night in a tighter range and it also went sideways building up Supply around the lower apart of our Potential Daily Support from yesterday making it our potential Resistance going forward? Depending what we do today but this could have been a retest and fail of Previous Daily Support 4012-3890 and we know short covering front ran our Daily target of 3915-3890 last week, will we get continuation towards it today? Will we hold around this Daily balance or will Powell and 10am Data come in and bring in some buyers? So far things are pointing to continuation lower, we are Under T2 range we are right at Previous Days Low which will be area to watch with 3976-71. If we can get under Previous Days range and accept under 3976-71 we can see a move towards our next Daily Support at 3915-3890. If we do manage to hold we could stay in this 3970-4025 range trading inside it unless 10am data comes and brings in buyers to get us back over 4012-08 and 4030-25 so far we do have plenty of Supply above it seems.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 4012-3890 Key Intraday 4012-08 // 4030-25 Key For Continuation Higher 4046-42
Support : Next Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 Key For Continuation Lower 3957-53
*** We Have Data at 815 and 10am Need to be cautious around those times as moves could be violent and it could go either way fast or wont pick direction until after
#ES_F 3.07.23 Day Trading Prep Monday 3.06.23 Review : Globex pushed us into the resistance area at 4061-56, RTH Opened on Gap up and buyers came in for continuation, we hit our upper early in the day and then consolidated below it. 4084-77 was our key area for continuation higher and we failed to take it out and showed weakness at it instead, until we built up enough Supply which gave us a nice short trade towards Previous Days range.
Tuesday 3.07.23 Prep : Are we getting any move out today or staying in balance? We have Powell doing something at 10 and we are at an important location, we have few weeks of Supply above us over 4084 - 4100 and we possibly trapped enough shorts under 4030 - 4015 to give us Support. These are the areas to watch for a move out of this current 4077-4030 range. We have been going sideways in smaller range all night around this 4061-56 Resistance area and we have to see what we do from here. We are right in the middle of the range inside yesterdays value which tells us it could be choppy and also the range has been tight so far which is not ideal for trading until that changes. 4084-77 is still our Key Resistance for continuation higher and any break down would need to break and accept under 4030-25 for continuation, until then can stay in balance.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4084-77 // 4103-4099 Current 4061-56
Support : Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 4012-08 Current 4046-42
#ES_F 3.06.23 Day Trading Prep Friday 3.03.23 Review : Friday Globex consolidated at Previous Day High, took the stops at night and we opened on a gap up over Previous Day High in RTH. Failed to closed the gap and gave a push towards the upper resistance target and a move above it into the next Supply area.
Monday 3.06.23 Prep : What are our options today, Will this move higher hold and we can continue today? Was this short covering move front running bigger support and we will continue lower today to find more buyers or do we need to balance again before deciding next bigger direction? Globex is building stops above Previous day high inside our Supply possible Resistance area, we are under Daily Resistance with few weeks of Supply above that we have already flushed but not everyone sells at once. We are inside Previous Days Range, above T2 range with not much Support below us which means size will break the lower levels if we find sellers up here today. If we dont have size sellers come in today at these higher areas and we can hold above 4030-25 and 4046-42 then we could see another attempt at 4061-56 and next resistance area above. If we fail to get over and Previous Day high and hold/continue higher we could see a move down towards Previous Day Half Back under 4030-25 level, that would be key area for continuation lower today, we do have some support under but if size sellers come in we can see us head for the Daily area we just broke out of around 4012-3990 which is also our T2 High area, if we do get there that would be the area to watch for acceptance in T2 range and continuation lower. Currently we are in 4077-4030 range and if we arent going to make a move out then we could also trade within this area from the edges.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 4100-4084 // 4084-61 Key Intraday 4061-56 Key For Continuation Higher 4084-77
Support : Key Daily 4012-3990 Next Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 4012-08 Key For Continuation Lower 3994-88 // 3976-71
