Snp500
S&P 500 Testing 4000?Stocks have benefited immensely from the CPI print on Thursday which showed that inflation is cooling slightly and therefore may signal a dovish pivot soon in Fed rhetoric. Stock indexes have all rallied accordingly. The S&P 500 is currently at the door of the 4000's. We are testing one level below 4009 at 3978. A red triangle on the KRI does seem to suggest that we will be facing resistance here, but we have not seen a significant retracement. If we do, we should find support at 3937 with 3909 a likely floor. If momentum can continue, then 4009 is the next target.
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION#XAUUSD
According to the analysis we gave to XAUUSS earlier, GOLD went UP very fast by BREAKING the TREND LINE. Due to this US10Y went down. The main reasons for that were the REPUBLICANS winning, and US CPI DATA being NEGATIVE.
We have some very important NEWS coming to USD this week. Be sure to keep an eye on it.
Anyway, with LABOR DATA DOWN, GOLD is going up slightly due to US10Y DOWN. Anyway, we expect that GOLD will go up to 1818 LEVEL. After that, it may go down to 1700 LEVEL with the FOMC UPDATE. Be careful..
S&P 500 index: Goes to the level of 3600, sell on rollbacks.Analysis of the spx 500 index 11/10/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index.
And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day.
What’s on the market now:
Today the index is trading at 3748. As we saw yesterday, the market fell to the level of 3750, which I wrote about earlier. Today, at the open, I expect the index to roll back to the level of 3820 – 3800. However, if there are large volumes on the market, the index may fall sharply to the level of 3660-3630.
What I'm looking forward to today:
Today, I expect an attempt to roll back the index to the 3800 zone, however, if this attempt is broken, then the market will fall to the level of 3660-3630. But here it is important to remember that, as I said earlier, globally, the market goes to the level of 3440.
Here are my trading recommendations for today.
What I recommend
If you want to go short:
Short positions are possible on a rollback from the level of 3800-3820.
If you want to go long:
Long positions are prohibited.
If you are out of the market:
Today long positions are prohibited. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it on a rollback from the level of 3800-3820, limit your losses.
Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice.
Subscribe to my channel and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index .
Press Boost if you agree with the current market situation.
Thank you!
See you next time!
Bye!
There the SPY goes… next leg downAs heads up yesterday, the TLT and VIX were telling… and the SPY buckled slightly (-2%) for the day.
Over the next two days, breaking down below 370 (red support line) and in doing so trigger a TD Flip to start a new TD Sequential should see the SPY find its way close to 350 (or lower).
MACD is supporting this and the VolDiv had already been warning a long time ago…
Stocks Showing Signs of WeaknessStocks have edged higher, but appear to be leveling off. Election uncertainty will be lifted as results of the 2022 midterms keeps pouring in. The markets are not as concerned in election results as most think, but we may see a small rally now that they're over. The Kovach OBV has flatlined, which could suggest that stocks will hold their course. We have seen a very weak rally with the S&P 500 inching gains for the past week. The price action appears to be rounding off, which could suggest a selloff soon. Additionally, more warnings of a global recession keep pouring in, so it is difficult to imagine this wave of euphoria can sustain. If we fall, we should have support at 3758 or 3714. If we rally, we must break 3909 before considering higher prices.
Analysis of the S&P 500 index: The big game begins…Analysis of the spx 500 index 11/09/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index.
And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day.
What's on the market now:
Today the index is trading at the level of 3828. Yesterday the market continued moving towards the level of 3820-3845, which I wrote about earlier. However, at the moment, I see all the signals for a market reversal and its movement to the level of 3440. Like yesterday, today a lot will be decided by the election result, but at the moment there were already sales in Europe and Asia. The market reacts negatively to the elections, as I expected. Large and medium-sized hedge funds are shrinking their portfolios, increasing volatility. However, such actions may provoke a sell-off in order to diversify risks for clients. What is likely to cause a sharp movement to the level of 3440 and below.
What I'm looking forward to today:
Today I expect the index to move to 3750, however, if the fall accelerates, then all long positions should be closed. There is also a possibility of a sharp movement of the market to the level of 3660.
Here are my trading recommendations for today.
What I recommend
If you want to go short:
Short positions are possible from the level of 3830-3850. But you can also try to open a position in the market, limit your losses.
If you want to go long:
Long positions are prohibited, the market is likely to fall sharply to the level of 3440.
If you are out of the market:
Today, as yesterday, long positions are prohibited, limit your losses. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 3830-3875, limit your losses.
But if you see anomalous behavior in the market, like a sharp rise, then it is better to stand aside, although the potential for growth to the level of 3970-4050 remains, but at the moment such an event is unlikely.
Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice.
Subscribe to my channel and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index. Press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation.
See you next time!
Bye!
S&P 500: At the edge… Prepare for sudden movements.Analysis of the spx 500 index 11/08/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index.
And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day.
What's on the market now:
Today the index is trading at the level of 3806. Yesterday, as I expected, the index kept its movement to the zone 3820-3045, I wrote about this earlier. However, at the moment, a situation has formed on the market in which the market may fall sharply to the level of 3440. Today, a lot will depend on the results of the US elections, but at the moment there is a lot of free money on the market that can be thrown into the market, and this could happen today. Which is likely to cause the market to ideally crash to 3440 and below.
What I'm looking forward to today:
Today at the opening, I expect the index to try to rise to the level of 3820-3845. However, if there are large volumes on the market, then there is a possibility of a sharp movement of the market to the level 3440, so long positions are prohibited.
Here are my trading recommendations for today.
What I recommend
If you want to go short:
Short positions are possible from the 3820-3845 level, try to sell on the market reversal but limit your losses.
If you want to go long:
Long positions are prohibited, limit your losses.
If you are out of the market:
Long positions are prohibited, limit your losses. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 3810-3845, limit your losses. But if you see anomalous behavior in the market, like a sharp rise, then it is better to stand aside, although the potential for growth to the level of 3970-4050 remains, but at the moment such an event is unlikely.
Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice.
Subscribe to my channel and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index . Press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation.
See you next time!
Bye!
Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice.
Subscribe to my and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index. Press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation.
See you nLong positions are possible from the level of 3750, but it is risky. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 3970, limit your losses.
ext time!
Bye!
Stocks Edge Up, but Face ResistanceStocks are incrementally ticking up, with the S&P 500 gradually testing higher levels. We are currently testing 3825 or so. Multiple red triangles on the KRI suggest that we are heading into resistance. The Kovach OBV is gradually trending up still, but we will need to see more momentum come through if we want to test relative highs at 3925 or so. If we retrace, we expect 3714 to hold as a floor price.
SPX500 Bulls in the gameLooks like S&P500 bulls, but expect that it will only go so far.
Unemployment rate has gone up 2%.
NFP higher than expected but lower than previous.
But, inflation still on the rise. Fed is poised to hold their stand, continue hiking interest rates albeit at a slower pace.
Interest rates hikes are possibly priced in by now - with the Fed having made a clear stance for interest rate to be within the range of 4-5%.
We have just hit the lower end of the range at 4%, and will probably be little to low impact from now for anything under 5%.
Expect chaos if interest rates go above 5%. If otherwise, market will probably continue the bulls until a new catalyst hits.
Will we see a correction to key price levels before resuming the higher timeframe trend?
Stocks Edge Higher but Face ResistanceStocks are edging higher, currently testing 3782, a level we have mentioned several times before. This follows a precipitous selloff, as the reality quashed hopes (as it so often does) of a dovish pivot in Fed policy. We collapsed from the 3900's almost 200 points, and found support at 3694 or so. We are currently seeing a tepid rally that is running into a lot of resistance at 3792, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. If we reject current levels than 3694 should provide support. If we are able to break out then 3848 is a good intermediary target before the 3900's.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 NOV 07
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 NOV 07
Market ended the week within an 80pt rotation, pending resolution of
Demand and Supply.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) If market remains in range, trade at boundary of range.
2) Breakout of range: Long if price retrace to test and finds
support
3) Breakdown of range: Short if price retraces to test
breakdown and shows rejection of higher prices.
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand
Daily: Higher vol up bar stopping supply = minor strength
H4: Narrower UHV effort no result down bar followed by
high vol up bar close off high = demand present
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4028 3925 3580
3502 3350
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
Stocks Edge LowerStocks have edged lower. We have broken through 3758 which we anticipated as a strong support level. We are getting intermediary support from 3714, confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has slumped, but does appear to be rounding off as the S&P 500 finds supprt. If we dig deeper, 3627 will provide further support. If we are able to pivot, expect resistance around 3792.
S&P500 is falling faster than BitcoinHi trading bros,
In last 24 hours we saw:
Bitcoin -1.5%
S&P 500 -3.3%
Nasdaq -4.5%
And all of them keep falling!
You may be wondering what is the matter to compare those very different instruments.
S&P 500 is a collection of the strongest and most valuable US companies. It is like a diamond.
When Bitcoin is a bubble without any real value. The balloon with euphoria gas inside.
However, it's not all that univalent.
In the real world, it appears that the diamond is falling faster than a balloon when the gravity kicks in.
Yesterday we have realized that very clearly.
The FED's head Jerome Powell with his speech has turned the economic gravity switch on.
The great blind captain can see the inflation at last!
And can say a scary R-word now! Recession!
Wow! What a brave man!
In general, crypto looks more positive than the securities now.
Which of course doesn't mean crypto is growing 😉
Nevertheless, we have today's winner in top-crypto: BNB +2.5%!
Not a surprise anymore that Euro (not the Dollar!!!) is falling with the US negative news.
EUR/USD -1.4% for one day.
Hey Europeans, did you feel poorer? I did!
Briefly about the yesterday's Fed meeting results:
- The rate was expectedly raised from 3.25% to 4%, which was taken positively by the market.
But then 30 minutes later Jerome Powell gave a speech which turned out to be disappointing.
The main thing from his speech:
- The final rate level will be higher than previously expected.
- The probability that the US will avoid recession has decreased.
- Fed sees no encouraging progress on inflation.
- The interest rate is likely to be increased to 0.5% at the next meeting.
And yes, my overall market sentiment is still bearish in midterm.
More coins' comparison is on this chart:
🔥WHY BITCOIN COPIES S&P500 MOVES: THE ANSWER WILL AMAZE YOU!🔥 Hi friends! I am sure that most of the traders want to earn more. I wrote this idea so that you could stay in the trend of new developments in the crypto market and understand the dependence of the crypto market on other markets.
Bitcoin began to copy SnP500 and this is a FACT. In order to understand why the price is copied at all, it is necessary to understand what the price is and how it is created.
🚩 I will not go into deep, fundamental knowledge of pricing. I will explain it very simply. In financial markets, pricing is mostly based on cycles of fear and greed of people. More greed - higher growth. Fear has a slightly different pattern. Usually the biggest fear is not during the fall or the maximum bottom, but during the rebound from the bottom.
✅ I think most of you understand these patterns.
📊 SIMILARITIES/DIFFERENCES BETWEEN BITCOIN AND S&P500
Let's move on to comparing the growth cycles (green areas) and the fall cycles (red areas). In total, I have highlighted 5 recent cycles (markets) for better illustration of the examples.
✅ As you can see, cycles 1, 2 and 3 almost do NOT coincide in all-time highs.
For example, the beginning of Bitcoin's fall in cycle 1 does not coincide at all with the fall of the SNP500, because the stock market was still growing and even renewed its highs.
🚩 In the case of Bitcoin and the SNP500, only large falls with major liquidations coincided. This is the end of cycles 1 and 3. When the largest market in the world falls, it is copied by all world economies and markets. Even such a seemingly new and independent cryptocurrency market. As I said, everything is based on fear and greed.
✅ Cycle 4 and 5 exactly coincide with the local bottom and all-time highs.
🚩 Many traders are already looking at the opening and closing of the US stock market to identify the direction of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Pay attention to the correlation data. At the beginning of November, the correlation is 0.69 or 69%. This is a high correlation!
The highest correlation was in mid-October. The correlation of Bitcoin and the SNP500 reached 89%! This is almost a direct copy of the price movements.
📊 WHY DOES BITCOIN START COPYING S&P 500 MOVES?
I discovered this answer for myself several years ago when studying different markets in search of the perfect strategy.
✅ The price of Bitcoin follows the movements of the S&P 500 due to the fact that many institutional traders, whales and funds came from the stock market to the cryptocurrency market. This means that each asset has its own character, but it can change over time depending on the habits of most players.
For example, you have definitely seen such altcoins that grow while 99% of other crypto is falling. The fact is that traders who trade this particular altcoin have a different nature and reasons to push the price. It is the same with falling altcoins in a bull market. Each asset has its own character, but it changes over time, which is what happened with Bitcoin.
🚩 If earlier most of the players in the market were short-term traders who wanted to earn 100-200% in a few weeks, then the price grew in pumps and could fall 5-6 times a year by 40%. Now we see that the price grows by 100-200% in one move and begins to consolidate, which was not the case before. This is the influence of new players in the crypto market.
✅ If a few years ago, large funds were afraid to trade on the crypto market because of the risks and low liquidity for buy, then with the spread of blockchain and the growth of capitalization, they can no longer do without investing in crypto and lose such opportunities.
In confirmation of this, we see how the last cycles began to coincide and I probably have to say it, but it will continue. All financial markets are looking at the US economy, so this correlation will continue...but not always.
📊 WILL BITCOIN STOP GROWING AS MUCH AS BEFORE?
✅ Bitcoin will continue to grow by 600-700%. So far, 2 things allow it to grow so much:
1. relatively small capitalization
2. great popularity among traders, especially retailers
🚩 But how much you can earn in such a market depends on your preparation and training provided by professional traders, because they already know all these nuances and can share their experience. I am sure that some chips can increase your profitability by 25-35%.
Traders, was this idea useful for you? If you want to thank or add something, then write your thoughts in the comments!
💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
Yesterday's FOMC: Reality Sets in for StocksReality crashed the party with stocks yesterday, as we have been predicting here. The FOMC event was still quite hawkish despite the market's anticipation that we would see some softening in rhetoric. This caused stocks to tank yesterday, with the S&P 500 falling through multiple levels to find support at 3758. European equities have softened which could portend another dump for the NAM session today. Additionally, eyes are on the BoE and we will see if their outlook matches that of the Fed. If we fall further, we could find support in the upper 3600's, with 3645 a likely floor. A rally will have to claw back through multiple levels. We don't see a rally strong enough to break through 3909 any time soon. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, and it will likely take a few days for the market to price in the Fed's decision.
Stocks Retrace From HighsStock indexes have pulled back from highs with stronger than expected construction and PMI data putting a damper on the markets' hopes that the Fed will taper their hawkish stance. These hopes were never really justified in the first place, so it was only a matter of time before reality set in. The S&P 500 inched above our level at 3909 and then fell back to support around 3848. We anticipate further support at 3792. The Kovach OBV has slumped so it is possible we may see some ranging here as stocks seek direction. If we can break out the next target is 3963.
S&P 500 E-mini FuturesSupply and Demand
Supply and Demand is one of the core strategies used in trading. It focuses on the ancient laws of supply and demand and how price moves in a free-flowing market. The foundation of this strategy is that the amount of an instrument that is available and the desire of buyers for it, drive the price. It identifies zones on the chart where demand overwhelms supply (the demand zone ), driving the price up, or where supply overwhelms demand (the supply zone ), driving the price down. Most supply and demand traders wait for the price to enter these zones, where major buying or selling activities have taken place, before entering a long or short position themselves.
I MOSTLY DO DAY TRADE BASED ON THESE ZONES. THE TIME FRAME I PREFER IS 2 MIN AND 5MIN TO TRADE THESE ZONES.
SPY does not look very much better... So, October ended with Halloween, and its time to update the outlook for the longer term on the SPY Monthly chart.
October underwhelmed September, but it still closed on a bullish candle nontheless. So might we be expecting a follow through bounce? I think the jury is still out... and a lot pivots on what action is taken by the FOMC, as well as its outlook.
Bigger than that, zooming out to see the larger picture, a little unsettling was something eye catching - that there might have been a time in the not so far past that looked technically similar.
The monthly chart have the two time lines drawn (white dotted vertical line). Back in August 2008, while 2008 presented as a pretty bad most of the year at that point (as it did similarly in 2022), there was a sense of optimism in the air just then, despite the monthly MACD (and MACD Signal) crossing down below zero. Then the next month saw all hell break loose. The technical picture then (simplistically) appeared to have broken a supporting up trend line, had MACD and MACD Signal lines cross down below zero, and the Volume Divergence cross down its moving average.
Similarly, albeit on a larger scale, the technical outlook appears to be repeated on an amplified scale here.
Presuming that the technicals uncannily unfold similar outcome, then by projection, the downside target could be the last major low... targeted about 200 on the SPY. Yes, about half of what it is just now.
That is quite severe.
In consolation, thus far, it appears that the projections point to a likelihood of 325-330 for the time being as previously assessed.
However, if a series of black swans start to go off... then maybe, just maybe, this post will remind of where the SPY might be heading.
Stocks Edge Higher, Looking WeakStocks have crept up, after rejecting highs at 3909. We had a brief retracement yesterday, which quickly found support and the S&P 500 was able to tick up past 3909, making a new relative high albeit barely. Several red triangles on the KRI suggest that we are running into stiff resistance at these levels. The Kovach OBV has slumped, so we will see if we have enough momentum to break out. If so, 3963 is the next target. If not, then 3792 should be considered a floor price.
Stocks Continue to GainThe S&P 500 has edged higher, after a brief retracement from 3887. We seemed to reject this level but found support just above our level at 3758. Dedicated readers will remember that we anticipated support here in previous reports. From there we pivoted nicely and broke through the previous high of 3887 to reach our target of 3909. The Kovach OBV is climbing steadily so we will see if this rally can continue. If we can break through 3909 the next target is 3963. If we retrace, then 3758 should hold as a floor.
S&P 500 RalliesThe S&P 500 has shrugged off Amazon losses, pivoting just above our level at 3758. Amazon has given up $trillion status as weak holiday spending as forecasts project the weakest holiday sales growth quarter ever. We will see if stocks can continue to rally, as a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance at current levels. The price action is rounding off and the Kovach OBV has slumped. If we continue to rally, we will face resistance from 3887, and 3909, the latter corresponding to a relative high. If we retrace, anticipate support at 3758 again.