Snp500
SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACD - Part IIITo continue, last we saw was:
After the last Buy Setup completed (red box), it broke down the lowest point of the previous opposing Sell Setup ( aka TDST at 398, red dotted line), hence a reiteration that the primary trend is still bearish .
Next, the SPY consolidated and made a weak attempt to break upwards, but ended up with a lower high by a terribly bearish looking doji , which was followed by a lower low. This also started the next TD Sequential Buy Setup that closed the day's trading on candle 7.
On Friday, the TD Seq Buy Setup continued with a Perfection, where a significant gap down on the 8th candle simply perfected the TD Seq Buy Setup. This was followed by a TD Flip (yellow up arrow) and the opposing Setup started forming. The MACD indicates a crossover, as well as a bullish divergence, in support of the current TD Seq Sell Setup forming.
Remember, the primary trend (in the hourly SPY chart) is currently bearish; and the TDST to turn the primary trend is to close above 396 (green dotted line). In the process, there should be a Gap Close, and it is possible to have a breakdown or breakout. The FOMC decision/announcement is something that is happening on 21 September, and would add volatility to the equation, allowing substantial movement either way. So do look out for that...
Just to share, and for demonstration of how a trade could be managed, a real (short) position was taken at the white down arrow, and closed about 15 minutes after market opened on a gap down (white up arrow) . Several reason why the position was closed, particularly, the Setup was near end, and perfected; furthermore, the gap down did not push the MACD for a lower low and the candlestick exceeded the Bollinger Band to quickly retrace back in.
You can see how hours later, a TD Flip and MACD cross over would have solidified the bullish retracement.
So, many ways to capitalize on the technicals. First get the technicals well done, then devise a concept strategy that would keep you safe (higher probability on your side of the trade), and manage the risk (exposure).
This would conclude this three part series on SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACD. I hope that there is some clarity on the use of technical indicators like TD Sequential, MACD, Bollinger Bands, as well as fractal analysis, to help in monitoring and risk management.
Would appreciate your comments and questions if any. Thanks in advance.
Stay safe and well.
PS. Do find the books that Thomas DeMark wrote as well as the version more recent summary by Jason Perl. Enjoy!
PSS. Special thank you to those (not mentioned) who had shared their codes, knowledge and analyses. It has truly helped me. To the the readers and followers, I hope this helps you too. Get better, get good, and pass it along...
Down came rain and washed the SPY-der out... Reference to the the just posted NASDAQ analysis; and in this analysis, the TD Sequential is switched on for a slightly new perspective, one that had been posted over the week on the hourly SPY chart. Now, you get to see it in the longer term chart and observe how fractal it can be.
The weekly SPY chart had a "Stick Sandwich" that looks more like a Bearish Engulfing IMHO. The difference here is that the SPY covers more than technology stocks (despite technology stocks taking up a lot of the S&P500 market cap). Technical indicators are similarly divergent, MACD bearish, RPM somewhat bullish. The TD Sequential (Buy) Setup is forming midway, just below the first TDST support (red dotted line), and is suggesting a bearish primary trend is forming.
What this TD Sequential pattern tells is that IF the current TD Seq Setup is to complete, then we should see the next 4-6 weeks of downside; probably fulfilling the the symmetrical projection to 325 (where the next TDST support line is).
These are the main factors that suggest more downside should be expected.
Zooming further out into the SPY monthly chart (right panel), with the TD Sequential switched on, and there is good and bad news here... The current TD Seq Setup completes in October, but in order to be Perfected, a low that is lower than 412 needs to be registered over the next 4 months; quite possibly meeting the monthly 55EMA. which is about 355 currently.
The geed news here is that on the monthly chart, the primary trend is still bullish, given the last TD Seq Setup (green box) in 2020 to March 2021. The TDST needed to turn the primary trend bearish would be a monthly close below 296.
So, at least for the rest of this year, the (monthly) primary trend is still bullish, notwithstanding that a recent lower low needs to be registered. ie. still downside risk prevails in the shorter term over the next couple of months.
MACD and RPM technical indicators support this view.
Also noted (the yellow arrow) that last month's candle was a bearish indication with a long upper tail, Shooting Star styled pattern. Furthermore, this month's halfway completed candle is already looking bearish, as it needs to. So, you get the idea...
Overall, these suggest that the SPY should be targeting a downside somewhere between 325-355 from now to the end of 2022.
What to Expect with Stocks?Stocks got slammed yesterday after retail sales suggested several areas of the economy are being hurt by inflation. The Fed is still expected to hike rates, and some fear that this will tip us deeper into a recession. Stocks closed lower, extending the worst selloff in over two years. We broke support here at 3887, and appear to be testing 3867, but a green triangle on the KRI appears to be suggesting we are finding support here. The Kovach OBV has taken a sharp dive, and does not appear to be showing many signs of picking up. If we are able to pivot, we will have several levels to break through in the 3900's before we can consider the 4K's again.
SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACD - Part IIIn continuation...
From the previous post, the SPY was " due to retrace, with a low probability spike no more than 416 (White line shows the barrier). "
So, it maintained at a stall for the rest of the day and never broke above the high of the Sell SEtup 9th candle (411.73). And the next day, due to a pre-market report release about inflation not abating as expected, the SPY gapped down significantly that wiped out the previous two days of gains.
Very uncanny huh?
Note here that I do find Thomas DeMark nothing short of a genius (especially if you know how (t)his indicator was developed in the age of pencil and paper charts), and his Sequential indicators amazing... thing here is that it has very amazing degree of predictability of turns like these, but cannot tell you the depth of the retracement/trend change.
So here is the break down in simplest terms I can put it...
From the last post, the main reason why we could expect a pivotal reversal was that the Sell Setup (bright green box) was completed nicely ( also known as Perfected ), and this Setup did not complete higher than the TDST (the highest point of the opposing Buy Setup shown in red box with green dotted line at the upper range). What this means is that the primary trend is not bullish, despite the previous days of bullish rally, but is actually a primary bearish trend which is likely to resume after completion of the (second) Sell Setup). The main signal after the Set up completes is the TD Flip... where an opposing set of candles appear. On 12 Sept, the first candle of the TD Flip appeared at closing, and the next day first hourly candle completed the flip. You would see how the TF flip typically (but not always) forms the start of the opposing TD Setup.
Well, there was a fundamental reason that spooked the market really hard to have a TD Buy Setup continue for the rest of the following trading day.
Currently...
After the last Buy Setup completed (red box), it broke down the lowest point of the previous opposing Sell Setup (aka TDST at 398, red dotted line), hence a reiteration that the primary trend is still bearish.
Next, the SPY consolidated and made a weak attempt to break upwards, but ended up with a lower high by a terribly bearish looking doji, which was followed by a lower low. This also started the next TD Sequential Buy Setup that closed the day's trading on candle 7.
Now, turning over to the MACD, it is about to cross under its signal line, in bearish territory.
Looking ahead, Friday is Quad Witching, and it typically promises a lot more volatility. Plus, it is a Friday, and I would think most traders would not like to hold positions over the weekend.
For a better picture of what to expect, we might need to zoom out to the Daily SPY chart.
And... an alarm is set at 388, the most recent last low. Given the significant reversal, the bullish run (as described over the last weekend) was technically invalidated on Wednesday itself. No need for any fancy technical indicators, just one giant Gap Down that closed almost two Gap Ups wins hands down.
Well, I do hope that the hourly analysis of the SPY in these two parts demonstrate how TD Sequential and MACD can be used (together with support/resistance and MA lines) to stay on the side of the trend where it is your friend.
Do be careful, nimble and stay safe!
Traders Vs Investors fight evident in S&P500 chartsIts easy Identifiable from the SP:SPX charts, that the SHORT sellers want to keep the Index below the Red trendline the moment it touched it.
Investors or we better call it the BULLS, want to change this scenario quickly and want to take the S&P500 out of this trading range shown in charts.
Tomorrow could be a make or break day, but always remember Investors (the BULLS) win in long term, so we might see this range being BROKEN on the higher side very soon.
Regards,
Anshul
SNP 500SNP 500
looks like going to start real fall. ready to real turbulence.
Good Luck
Chart is for 10 days.
SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACDJust a quick analysis for the Intraday SPY...
Using the DeMark Setup, the SPY 1H just completed the second Sell Setup (green box). This Sell Setup is perfected, and might last a couple of hours more, but it is due to retrace, with a low probability spike no more than 416 (White line shows the barrier).
Reason being, the Setup did not clear the TDST (the highest point of the Buy Setup (red box)) at 420, and so the bearish trend is actually the primary trend.
Furthermore, there is another level at 422 to overcome and this would be needed to close an earlier gap down range to be bullish.
MACD and other technical indicators are showing some upward space in a rally that is old in the teeth.
So, bullish as it seems, a (small) retracement is due.
Wait for it.
Stocks Edge Higher Ahead of CPI DataStocks have edged higher, breaking through to our next target of 4122, exactly as we predicted yesterday. Stocks are up ahead of key US inflation data, expected to come in at 8.0% , which is still high, but hopefully at least plateauing. It looks like we are meeting some resistance as confirmed by red triangles accumulating on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still strong but may be rounding off slightly. While we may be in for a retracement, if momentum can sustain, then 4144 or 4178 are reasonable targets. If we reject current levels watch 4068 for support.
Inflation is coming down. Will the markets now go up?Traders, talk about disinflation and a bull market seems contradictory. But is it? I'll explain why disinflationary indicators may mean we see the S&P at previous or even new highs going forward before we recede once again into a true bear market.
Will the S&P continue it's technically predictable price action?No surprises over the last couple of weeks. S&P is moving exactly as anticipated hitting all targets precisely. Will it continue to preform as the charts are telling us it will? In my next weekly update video on Friday, I will discuss a bit on why I believe the S&P could hit 5000 and double top, before we drop and enter into an actual recession longer-term (next couple of years).
The S&P 500 Regains the 4K'sStocks have broken out, climbing significantly and reestablishing the 4K's. We have broken through 4009, and just broke out past the next level at 4068. We have already crossed one vacuum zone, and appear to be breaking out into another. If momentum continues today, then 4122 is the next target. The Kovach OBV has picked up sharply, suggesting there might be some serious legs to this rally. If not, 4009 should provide support again.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 12 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 12 Week
Last week's 3903 support provided fruitful long.
We have an engulfing bullish weekly bar. Possibility of continued
upward momentum, for long preference.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) Long if 4010 / 4095 is supported
2) Short on trend channel rejection / rejection at 4095 / 4010
Weekly: Ave vol up bar (engulfing bullish) = strength
Daily: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
H4: High vol bar + low vol UT bar = weakenss
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4204 4029
3903 3743
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
The SPY flipLast week, it was all bearish looking, and was very difficult to find a bull case. This week, the sentiment and perhaps even technicals appear quite the opposite as the week flipped it quite well.
We start, as usual, with the weekly chart. The last week closed significantly higher, with a large bullish candle that appears to have overwhelmed the bears by closing well above the gap down range from two weeks ago, and above 400. While the MACD is about to cross under, the RPM indicates favourable support for this flip bounce.
Resistance is seen at 418 ( above the weekly 55EMA) and the one to beat is 432.
The daily chart shows the spectacular flip in detail, where the week started in a mild downward draft, and then the Bullish Engulfing pattern formed mid-week. This was followed through, and the week ended with a a nice gap up and run, to close above the previous gap range, as well as above the daily 55EMA.
The MACD crossed over, and the RPM is about to cross over as well, supporting the bullish end for the week.
Interesting to note, that the last day of the week also closed at the trendline resistance (green trendline). What this means is that any upside is a trendline breakout, clear and simple. So, this flip and turn out to be a bit bigger than anticipated, and might have broken the downward trend pattern. A tad early at this point to call it, but appears as a potential point in the most bullish case scenario.
Taken together, this last week's flip appears bullish, and a bullish incoming week should follow through. Breaking above 418 and staying above it is the first bullish criteria; and 400 is now a significant support. Overall, the ranges are expanding, if not already wide. Trends are short and sharp at this point and flips like these can and will happen. Reading the chart(s) well and being nimble in thinking (instead of fixation on being right) is petinent.
Be aware, be safe.
Stocks Snap Losing StreakStocks snapped a losing streak yesterday as they gained strength off of Powells comments. The Fed is still expected to hike rates in September, with a 75 bps hike increasingly more likely. However, if and when inflation eases, we should see a more dovish stance. The S&P 500 broke through our target and upper bound at 4009, but is wavering in the vacuum zone between this level and 4068. If we reject current levels we could test the base of the 4000 handle or deeper into the 3900's. If we rally further, 4068 remains a target. www.cnbc.com
Can the S&P 500 Regain 4000?After establishing new lows, stocks pivoted back to 3978, just one level below 4009, our target from yesterday. We are seeing red triangles on the KRI, indicating some resistance but if we can break through, 4009 is the next level to break before we can consider higher levels. If we reject this level, we could easily retrace the entire move, and head back to support at 3909 or 3887.
Stocks Edge LowerStocks broke through relative lows at 3909 as anticipated. We gave up the 3900 handle entirely, and broke down into the 3800's, but found immediate support at 3887. We are testing 3909 from below at the time of this writing but the S&P 500 looks pretty weak. The Kovach OBV is on a steady downward decline, and we keep breaking levels from below. We should have strong support at 3848, a relative high/low from June. If we are able to pivot or we see a relief rally, then 3963 is a reasonable target.
Another Lackluster Week for Stocks?Stocks opened the APAC session weak (as expected). The markets appear to still be pricing in the recession and the results of the FOMC September 21. We aren't likely to get much of a break in stocks until after this rate hike, which some conjecture might be the last . The S&P 500 saw support from 3909, which was an auspicious level corresponding to a July low. The Kovach OBV, however, is still very bearish, suggesting that it will be an uphill battle for the stock market to claw back highs. If we get a relief rally, then we could test 4009. If we press lower, then 3848 is a reasonable target.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 05 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 05 Week
Last week's 4071 rejection + channel rejection provided fruitful short.
Currently market is temporarily supported at 3903.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) Long if 3903 is supported
2) Short on low vol retracement / rejection at 4080 / 4030 / 3903
Weekly: Higher vol down bar close off low, same spread as previous bar
= demand coming in
Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand
H4: Ultra high vol bar + high vol up bar = demand coming in
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4204 4029
3903 3743
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
SPY down, what else is new?Looking at the SPY, it is clearly bearish at first glance.
Weekly chart pre-empted three weeks ago, and it is playing out as expected. This week saw a follow through downside, that the last three weeks erased a almost all of a previous four week gain. Weekly chart begs the question of how low can we go, and target projected at 325.
The daily SPY shows that the week started with a failed attempt to close the gap down of the same day. rest of the week was bearish history as technical indicators broke down into bearish territory. The week ended with Friday gapping up (on decent payrolls data) and then just losing it to go into the weekend. This resulted in what resembles a Bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. It did not fully engulf the previous candle (although it did on a body to body comparison). This appears as a bearish indicator, but one that tells of some support at the lower end where the tails form.
So, we can probably expect a bearish undertone, but the week ahead should stall, and probably have a consolidation or mini bounce. longer term projection still puts downside target at 325.
Recession Weighs on StocksThe S&P 500 has slipped further after making a run for higher levels. Yesterday, we tested two levels that we have been identifying as targets for weeks now: first we touched 4009, then made a brief pivot to 4068, where we saw immediate resistance, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We subsequently plummeted as the risk off tone permeated the markets. We gave up the 4000 handle entirely, testing as low as 3963, where we saw green triangles on the KRI confirming support. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish, but we could see support from a relative low at 3909. If we pivot, we must first break through 4009 again then 4068 is the next target.
Simple Intraday Anatomical Analysis of the SPY breakdownSo, last Friday the SPY was triggered for a hard down.
And on Monday, there was a gap down opening, marked out by the yellow box which shows the gap range. If the SPY closes above the yellow box, it is reversing trend to bounce upwards; however, if it closes below the yellow box, it reopened the gap and is heading for more downside.
Throughout the trading day, there was a clear attempt to close the Monday gap. And for less than an hour, the gap was closed, only to be promptly reopened. This formed the long overhead tails, that indicate selling, and the territory that the bears are winning. And then the day ended with with a nice down candle with a push down towards closing. Again, a bearish indication. The current issue is that it did not fully reopen the gap, meaning that there was no conclusive closure below the yellow box.
So at this point, it skews the favor slightly more towards the bearish side.
On the daily chart, the resulting candlestick formed is not very bearish (not red for a start) but is indicating through the long-ish tail at the top that some limited downside should be expected.
The Daily technical indicators follow through further into bearish territory.
So, here is the intra-day analysis of the SPY, pointing to a limited downside risk, not one to plunge like last Friday, but a likely lower low, especially after breaking below 402 (and 400 particularly).
It is going to be a very interesting week, especially to review on aday by day analysis... so much to learn of a breakdown anatomically part by part.
Take care!
