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Snp500

Momentum Fades for StocksStocks appear to have topped out for now just under our level at 4214. We've since retraced, finding support at 4122, just above the vacuum zone to 4068. We are seeing several green triangles on the KRI which confirm the support. It seems that stocks are ranging and establishing value between 4122 and 4178. Optimistically, we might be forming a bull flag pattern, however the Kovach OBV has slumped, suggesting we will need more momentum to come through to break out of it. If so, we must break through 4214 before we can hit our next target of 4306. If support does not hold, watch the vacuum zone below to 4068.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
#ES Overview 06.01.22If we look on the daily we are right in the middle between the trapped supply which we started selling out from on the 5th and the Position/trapped shorts below us, today we had an indecision day as we still have plenty of supply above and now buyers below. Im thinking possible inside day tomorrow or for the least inside Friday range, thinking we could hang out between 4170-4060 area for couple days until the next bigger move is ready. Of course have to watch levels and order flow but just thinking what can see, new month is starting as well so might take few days to warm up. I am looking at current Key Resistance 4143.75-4137.50 and Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25, looking to stay between those areas unless we extend and reach break next Key Resistance of 4220-4214.75 or next Key Support at 4030.75-4025.25. Until we can extend to next Key levels I will be reducing my expectations on the moves and waiting for the edges to enter.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Stocks Surge as China ReopensThe S&P 500 has broken out of the malaise it has held all of last week. China seems to be reopening which has investors breathing a sigh of relief. After the inverse head and shoulders breakdown, we saw tremendous resistance and stocks were in the doldrums, hovering in the 3800-3900 range with 4K a hard upper bound. The neckline of our failed inverse H&S pattern provided strong resistance as we had predicted all of last week. Finally, we were able to break out from this level, smashing through our previous targets at 4122 and 4144, and reaching a new relative high just above 4200. We are starting to face resistance from a congestion zone from the end of April, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI just below 4214. We are finding support at 4144, and should see continued support from 4122, but if not, we are set to cross the vacuum zone to 4068, the neckline of our failed inverse H&S pattern. The next target is 4306, a relative high from the very beginning of May.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 MAY 30 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 MAY 30 Week Last week looks like a million alpacas pushed demand and market ventured into previous rotation zone. Note: Strongest demand volume sighted last week. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Test and reject again from rotation zone and market will then test lower levels 2) (a) 4091-4135 becomes support for long (b) 3943-3974 becomes support for long Weekly: Ave volume up bar = minor strength + reversal bar Daily: Low vol up bar = weakness H4: High volume up bar close at high = strength Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4874 4800 4740 4631 4584 4525 4433 4368 4303 4133 4091 3947 3902 3855 3720 *3913-4000 (previous high demand area) Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
Explaining the moves on the S&P500So far this correction on the S&P has been extremely orderly and makes a lot of sense. A lot of things are very similar to the 2018 correction, especially when it comes to how the market has moved. The key differences in the current environment are that the Fed hasn't raised rates as much, inflation is a lot higher, debt is a lower higher, the economy is in a worse shape, energy is a lot more expensive and markets are still a lot higher than they were back then. Yet volatility hasn't gotten out of control and the market is moving in an orderly fashion. Now the key reasons as to why stocks have fallen so much are: 1) Future earnings have been revised downwards due to bad economic conditions and deglobalization, 2) Inflation is hurting a lot of companies as their expenses keep going up, 3) Inflation has caused markets and the Fed to raise rates, something that has put a lot of pressure on everyone that wants to borrow or has borrowed money ( funds, governments, corporates, retail), 4) Markets were significantly elevated and the valuations of many companies were unreasonable. At the moment the market is bouncing as many investors got extremely bearish. The sentiment everywhere was so bearish, and although I personally don't think the bottom is in, I believed a relief rally was going to come. Why? Well, let's start with some fundamental and technical analysis and see how we got here... Since Mar 2021 inflation started getting hot, while certain sectors of the market started getting hit. In November inflation became too hot and the Fed made clear that it would fight inflation by raising rates and stopping QE. In December and January the market had an ordinary dip down to the May-June 2021 highs, swept some key lows and bounced. In February as inflation wasn't going down and Russia was positioning to invade Ukraine, markets started becoming fearful and fell enough to fill a double gap on SPY, and bottomed soon after Russia invaded Ukraine. Fear had reached a peak at that time, but the bounce wasn't all that strong as the Fed was still planning to do its first rate hike. Soon the market rolled over again without making a new low. Once the market swept a low on SPX but not on SPY it bounced hard just a few days before the Fed meeting. After the Fed meeting it rallied hard and went up to the Jan-Feb triple top, swept the highs, hit resistance and partially filled an open gap. The same way the market went for the highs and the gap in its reach for liquidity (hunting stops), then went for the lows and the gaps lower, as there were several of them. The drop begun before the next Fed meeting, and on the second Fed meeting they raised rates by 0.5%. They also made clear that they didn't plan any hikes larger than 0.5%, something that initially caused the market to spike higher, as it interpreted the news as bullish, while also expecting the second meeting to play out like the first one. However that wasn't the case and the market crumbled lower soon after. Investors had the wrong expectations and the market was still heavy. Once the market fell by 20%, it paused, but as it had formed a cheeky triple bottom, it made a final push lower before bouncing higher. It also hit the Monthly S3 which is a great place to bottom, consolidated a bit and then bounced hard. It has now reclaimed key support levels and could go up to 430-440 (4300-4400) in order to take out the triple top and retest the key breakdown zone, along with the Yearly Pivot. What could come after this is unclear. In my opinion inflation has peaked and although it will probably be positive YoY, as bonds yields have started coming down and the terminal rate seems to be around 2-3%, the Fed might slow down a bit. They might start being more dovish in their next meetings as they don't want to push things too much. Inflation is already coming down in the US due to a strong dollar, equities collapsing, a much lower growth in the money supply and with QT starting in June. At the same time however, the energy and food shortages could become so extreme, something that the bond market probably already knows that and that's why it looks shaky. Things are so bad for ordinary people, that if the Fed & government don't start to support everyone in need, things could get very ugly. Therefore bond yields coming down along with inflation could simply be a short term pause and nothing more than that. Maybe in a few months they could resume higher, putting additional pressure on stocks. In my opinion stocks could rally by another 5-6% before rolling over again, although I am not sure whether the bottom is in or not. I tend to believe it isn't, and that stocks would need to fall 5-15% from their recent low, but wouldn't be surprised if they go up 5%, drop 7% and then go higher again.
AMEX:SPY
by BitcoinMacro
1
Stocks Meet Resistance EXACTLY at Our Level!!The S&P 500 has broken out from the upper 3000's and made a run for higher levels. We faced pretty steep resistance from 3978, about the midpoint of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern. We noted that failed inverse H&S patterns are usually a bearish sign, and we have been in the doldrums all week. We also noted several times that the neckline of the failed pattern would provide significant and prohibitive resistance. This is exactly what we are seeing. Though the S&P 500 has broken out, it is currently facing resistance exactly at the neckline at 4068, confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has trended up, but tapered and flattened with the resistance. We will need more momentum to break through. If so, the next targets are 4122 and 4144. If we retrace, then 3978 should provide support again.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Tepidly Pull HigherStocks have drifted upwards, testing the upper bound at 3978. This is roughly the midpoint of the failed inverse head and shoulders pattern that we have been referencing the past few reports. Recall that such a failure in this pattern is a bearish sign for stocks, and what we are witnessing is to be expected. The S&P 500 has been in the doldrums and can barely muster the strength to test the midpoint of the pattern, let alone the neckline of the inverse H&S at 4068, which will continue to be a barrier even if we can muster a rally. On the downside, 3825 should remain a lower bound for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
S&P 500 Unable to Clear 4000Stocks have been wavering at lower levels and just can't seem to break 3978. This is a technical level, about midway through our inverse head and shoulders pattern. This lackluster behavior is to be expected as the break down from the inverse H&S pattern is a very bearish sign, and portends strong resistance if we do try to inch back up and test highs. The neckline at 4068 will be an incredibly difficult barrier, as we are clearly seeing. We should see support from around the level corresponding to the 'head' in the low 3800's. If not, we are clear to test the 3700's.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Still WobblyStocks have made an attempt to recover from Friday's selloff, but we have met strong resistance at 3978, about midway through the failed inverse head and shoulders pattern. We noted that this is a very ominous sign for stocks and in the past, from which it will be difficult to recover. It also suggests that 4068 (the necline of the inverse H&S) will be a very tough level to break, and currently, the S&P 500 does not seem to have the momentum to even test this. The Kovach OBV is extremely bearish, suggesting we are due for a relief rally. However if the selloff continues, expect support at 3810 again.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
📊BTC and S&P in the channel! Will the history repeat?Hi friends! How can you identify the future price movements? For this purpose, technical analysis uses patterns: head and shoulders, triangles, wedges. Let's use the S&P 500 price movement pattern in the 2019 channel for Bitcoin in 2022. ✅If you are new to trading, it is important to learn how to identify the trend. A trend is the direction of price movement up or down (uptrend, downtrend) or price consolidation. 1️⃣Why is it important to know the trend direction? When the trend is going up, you have a better chance of making a successful long, because the price is constantly going up. If the trend is down, the chance of making a successful short is much higher, and longs become unprofitable. For a beginner it is easier to understand, but I will talk about advanced trading techniques in the following ideas. When the price is in a channel, it's a consolidation . Even though price is making higher highs or higher lows, which determines the trend, but price remains in a channel. The first exits of the price outside the channel happen only to collect the liquidity as we see in the examples. 📊S&P 500. A 2017-2019 channel in the $2,500-$2,900 range. 📊Bitcoin. Channel 2021-2022 in the $30-67k range. 2️⃣What do these two channels have in common? Collecting liquidity to sell above the channel and collecting liquidity to buy below the channel. 🔶What is collecting liquidity to sell? It's a manipulation where the price breaks a level up (in our case, the upper boundary of the channel) and long traders who trade the breakout open their longs and the big player opens his shorts. That is, the big player sells his cryptocurrency reserves at the best possible price. 🔶What is collecting liquidity to buy? It is manipulation, when the price breaks the channel down and the short traders start opening their trades and the big player buys cryptocurrency from them and the price goes up. This is how the whale buys the cryptocurrency at the best price. 3️⃣Is this happening now? We will know after some time, but these two patterns are very similar to each other and probably Bitcoin price will repeat a similar movement. 🚩Why does the consolidation confuse the traders? Because there is no clear trend. A big player can accumulate a position in the middle of a consolidation channel and make several manipulations, which is exhausting for beginners. Consolidation is very exhausting for a beginner. It is not as easy to make money as during a uptrend, when you can buy almost any cryptocurrency and it will rise in value. Consolidation makes newbies be anxious and when the price breaks the lower boundary of the channel the most impatient ones leave the market. But it`s just the beginning of the uptrend! ✅But you are patient, aren't you? 💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
by Yuriy_Bishko
17
Here's what we should be watching this week for Bitcoin.Traders, I want to go over a few items that should remain on our watchlist this week and where the indicators are leading me. I will also give an update on how Stewdamus 2.0 is coming along. -Stew FED Events 🏛 🇺🇸U.S. ECONOMIC DATA THIS WEEK: *MANUFACTURING PMI (TUES.) *SERVICES PMI (TUES.) *NEW HOME SALES (TUES.) *DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (WED.) *FED FOMC MINUTES (WED.) *Q1 GDP - 2ND READING (THURS.) *JOBLESS CLAIMS (THURS.) *PENDING HOME SALES (THURS.) *CORE PCE PRICE INDEX (FRI.)
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
📊S&P500: recession vs growth in 2022! Prediction for BTC!Hi friends! In this idea I will share my point of view about the stock and the cryptocurrency market in 2022. Perhaps you have noticed how they are linked? Will 2022 be the year of the big fall or the price will renew ATH? Well, let's start one by one. 📊The stock market. As you can see from the chart, it has been rising for about 100 years now. The 2020 covid-19 crisis looks like a local correction compared to the Great Depression of the 30s. Back then, the market fell by 89% and was only able to recover after 23 years. After the pandemic crisis began, the market recovered 3-4 months only to its previous ATH. Remember how much panic there was in the market? It is your choice to take advantage of such opportunities or to panic. After the abandonment of the gold standard, the dollar lost its peg to gold reserves and the new financial system let the opportunity to print fresh money to loan to creditors. There are many pros and cons, but that the U.S. remains the world's economic leader by a wide margin is a fact. It also led to the 2000-2001 .com bubble and the 2008-2009 real estate crisis. But 12 years later, the S&P500 is already up 3x. 🚩Fundamental analysis: 1️⃣ the growing inflation is bad for the the stock market growth. Rising price of the oil, gas and food (wheat, corn, sunflower, soybeans etc.) starts hiking inflation rate. But USA will start to accept Venezuela oil after the several years ban. For your understanding, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world so it will allow to keep the oil price at the previous levels. 2️⃣ The unemployment rate is 3.6%, which is a pre-crisis level! This is an indicator, which shows that the economy is in good condition. 3️⃣ Investment outflows from the EU in February alone amounted to $15 billion! This is the largest outflow in a decade. Investors are looking for safety, so all that money has been flowing into the U.S. stock market for three months. 🚩Technical analysis (TA): 1️⃣ The first value zone is $380 to $400. Such value zones are always a huge support for the price. 2️⃣ The key $400 level. Even though the price broke it down, the whales collected a lot of liquidity to open long positions. Of course, there were a lot of stop-losses of retail traders here, most of the margin positions liquidated. 3️⃣ Volumes we haven't seen in over two years. As you know, there are two sides in trading: those who buy and those who sell. If such volumes appeared, someone has accumulated a huge position for the first time since 2020. During the first volume growth, those who bought at market ATH were liquidated, and during the second volume growth, those who bought back from the first fall were liquidated also. Fundamental and technical analysis says the market should be rising. Even despite the reports about a new pandemic (🙈 pox) the world has adapted and is ready for new challenges. ✅Why is it so important for us that the stock market grows? As we have seen over the past few years, Bitcoin has not yet become a reserve asset and often copies the movements of the U.S. stock market. While the stock market is still growing, the cryptocurrency market is growing as well. 📊The cryptocurrency market. The indicator of the cryptocurrency market is Bitcoin. The price of 99% of all altcoins depends on BTC cycles. As you can see from the Bitcoin chart, it has been in a rising cycle for over 10 years. How to understand it? It makes higher highs and lows, which is a very positive signal. 🏁Will Bitcoin fall to $20,000 or has it already started it`s rise to $100,000? It doesn't matter in the long term. As long as the crypto industry grows and Bitcoin makes HH and HL, growth will continue. Learn how to trade now, use the ideas I post, ask the questions in the comments! 💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
SP:SPX
by Yuriy_Bishko
13
Can Stocks Recover from Lows?Stocks have recovered from Friday's selloff. Though we have fully retraced from that dip, we remain under 4000, and well below the neckline of that failed head and shoulders pattern discussed last week. The fact that we broke down from the inverse H&S is foreboding and that we broke lower than the head (relative low) of this pattern is even worse. The Kovach OBV is extremely sold off, so we may have some hopes of a relief rally. If so, 4068 will be a formidable barrier to the upside. We should find support again at 3810 if we sell off further, but the next support level after that is in the 3700's.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 MAY 23 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 MAY 23 Week Last week's retracement went beyond 4056, as demand came in to support the market. Nonetheless short on retracement was good. This tells us the importance of waiting for price reaction at the levels. Possible Scenarios: 1) Test and reject at supply line of channel for short 2) Market rotate between 3855-4091 as demand & supply slug it out Weekly: Ave volume down bar close off low = minor strength Daily: Average vol up bar close off high = minor strength H4: Very high volume up bar close at high = strength Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4874 4800 4740 4631 4584 4525 4433 4368 4303 4133 4091 3947 3902 3855 3720 *3913-4000 (previous high demand area) Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
Stocks Looking WeakAs predicted here, stocks have fallen from a failed inverse head and shoulders breakout. We were able to predict this due to the incredibly weak 'breakout' from the neckline at 4068. We also noted that this was a very bearish omen, and called out the exact level of support at the head of the inverse H&S at 3887 or so. Currently, we are seeing a bit of support here, but the brief rally is nothing compared to the magnitute of the previous selloff, and this is confirmed quantitatively by the Kovach OBV, which is still incredibly bearish. If we fall further, its uncharted territory, but we should have support at the base of the 3800's. If we somehow muster the strength for a rally, then we must break 4068 before testing higher levels, which is a barrier for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Stocks Break Down HARD from Failed Inverse Head and Shoulders!!As predicted yesterday, stocks broke down hard. Recall that we observed that the breakout from the inverse head and shoulders pattern in the S&P 500 was looking extremely weak. This is usually a very bad sign and portends a dramatic failure. Indeed, we note only rejected current levels but completely retraced the entire pattern, currently finding support at 3887, the head of the pattern. We can expect support here, but if it does not hold, we are set to make new relative lows which is a very ominious sign. The neckline at 4068 is likely to be a prohibitive upper bound for some time, as is usually the case with failed H&S patterns.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Struggle to Continue the RallyThe S&P 500 had a very humble breakout from the inverse head and shoulders pattern we identified yesterday. Recall that we noted an inverse H&S pattern with a neckline at 4068. We suggested that if it broke out from this, we could easily test the 4100's. We did see a bit of a bounce past 4068, but nowhere near the momentum we'd expect from a breakout. Indeed, we weren't able to even clear 4100 before running into resistance. Though the Kovach OBV has tapered up slightly, this is nowhere near the momentum we'd like to see off a proper breakout. If we reject the breakout it is a very bearish sign indeed. We could easily retrace through the vacuum zone to 4009, or even test the 3K's again. If we are able to break out, then 4122 and 4144 are the first targets we will have to break before considering higher levels.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Inverse Head and Shoulders in Stocks?? 📈🤑Stocks appear to be forming the inverse head and shoulders pattern that we predicted would form yesterday. The "head" of the pattern extends down to the low 3900's with the neckline at 4068. We are seeing resistance from 4068 confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI, but if we are able to break out from here, then the 4100's are reasonable, in particular 4122 and 4144. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish and has flatlined suggesting we will need more momentum to come through, perhaps at the US open, before we can expect a breakout.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
SPX500 index: Let's go to 3910 today!Today we are here to talk about the SPX500 index. What's on the market now: The index is trading at 40 13. And in the last trading session, we saw the price stabilize, as I expected earlier, here is a link to the idea. Globally, the index is moving towards the level of 3830 - 3780. What are we waiting for today: Today we expect a decline to the level of 39 00, and then an attempt to rise to 4100. If the movement to 41 00 is canceled, then we expect a sharp move to the 37 80 zone What I recommend: If you want to open short: I recommend you go short above 4100. If you want to avoid risk, going short above 4145 seems to me the safest. If you want to buy: Long positions are possible from the 3910 level, limit your losses. If you outside the market: You can sell above 4100 or wait until the market bottoms around 3820-3780. Like and subscribe, thanks! Also remember to contact me in 1 or 2 days for further trading advice. See you next time!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
1
#ES Futures 5.16.22 OverviewToday we have inventory balancing our out 3971.50-4030.75 Range, we are above T+2 high which is 3961.75 which means we can see buy ins at levels above which is holding us up here and we were not able to extend over 4030.75 so far. Will we make a move out of this range today or will we spend time in this range for now until we are ready for next move? On the upside we have Key Resistance at 4025.25-4030.75 which we would need to break over and hold to see the upper levels of 4046-4042.25, 4061.50-4056.50 and next Key Resistance at 4084.50-4077.25. On the downside failure to get above 4030.75-4025.25 we can see lower levels get tested at 4012.50-4008.75, 3994.50-3988.75 and our Key Support at 3976.50-7371.50, as mentioned we should see buyers at lower levels as we have trapped shorts from T+2(Thursday) but if we do take out Key Support we must take out 3957.25-3953.25 to see any continuation lower, otherwise we will rotate back up. I expect a balanced day unless I see clear signs of us moving out of this balance.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn