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Stocks Test LowsStocks have opened in the red this week. The S&P 500 has retraced almost the entire range, from 4408 down to 4144, just a few points away from the relative low at 4122. We are currently seeing a nice pivot from that level confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. However the Kovach OBV is still quite bearish. The key level to watch is 4122. If this fails to provide support, then there is a vacuum zone below to 4068 and 4009. If we somehow catch a burst of momentum, then 4392 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Mar 07 Week ES1! ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Mar 07 Week Last week's long on test and then short toward the test of 4290 worked well. Market showed topping, if 4290 is broken, market may reach for lower levels, presenting a short on retracement opportunity. Weekly: Average down up bar closing in middle = indecision Daily: Average volume down bar closing in middle = indecision H4: High volume up bar closing off high = weakness Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4874 4800 4740 4587 4525 4446 4397 4290 4213 4133 4037 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
Stocks Cautious as War Rages OnStocks have been feeling out the 4300's and low 4400's. We made a brief attempt to test 4400, which was quickly thwarted by 4408. It seems that the war between Russia and Ukraine is still instilling market participants with trepidation, especially after Russian forces attacked a nuclear power plant in Ukraine. The S&P 500 has since rejected highs and tested lows of the value area at 4272. From here we could test highs again, but will have to break 4408 in order to consider our next profit target at 4440. From below, if we break 4272, then 4122 remains our anticipated floor, but we will likely see support at 4230 first.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Bull Wedge Pattern in Stocks 📈🚀Stocks keep edging up, but remain bounded from above by 4380. We appear to be forming a bull wedge pattern at this level, with several red triangles on the KRI to confirm resistance here. The Kovach OBV is slightly bullish as well, suggesting a bit of a bull divergence. If we break out, we have several levels above to provide resistance, but ultimately, the next target is 4440, a relative high from January, and strong technical level. If the breakout fails and we reject 4380, then 4272 should provide support. If not, 4228 should be considered a minimum lower bound for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Still Undecided as Ukraine Crisis IntensifiesStocks have retraced further from relative highs at 4408. It looked like we might have been gearing up for a bull run to test 4440, but geopolitical woes seem to keep weighing, and two red triangles on the KRI suggest that 4408 is providing prohibitive resistance for now. We have since retraced back to 4272, but seem to have good support there. Currently, we are seeing a brief pivot from 4272, which has brought us to the midpoint of this level and 4408. From here it could go either way, but it is likely we will need some resolve to the Russia/Ukraine crisis to break higher. If we sell off further and 4272 does not hold, then 4228 is the next relative low where we should expect support, then 4122. If we can break 4408, then 4440 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Geopolitical Conflict Hits StocksStocks have begun to dip off of stepped up efforts with Russia to move in on Ukraine. Russian forces are close to the capital, Kyiv, and markets are reacting. We have strong safe haven inflows, as per bonds and gold, and the S&P 500 has just rejected a relative high at 4389. The Kovach OBV was increasing, but has curved over with the rejection. If we do find support at current levels, watch for a bull wedge or other bull consolidation pattern to form under 4389. If we retrace further, 4245 should provide support. If we are able to break out from 4389, 4440 is our next target, but this is not likely for today.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Inverse Head and Shoulders in Stocks??Stocks have picked up, but the markets have quite a bit to digest. The Ukrainian president is meeting with Russia to discuss terms, which may give the markets some hope to the resolution. However, sanctions are slamming Russian banks and the world is fearing oil supply issues. That being said, we appear to be seeing an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming with a neckline at 4364. The Kovach OBV has picked up tremendously from where it was when stocks were at lows this week. This suggest a bit of a bull divergence, and a potential breakout could take us to 4440. If we retrace further, we could test lows again at 4122 but 4245 is likely to provide support first.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 28 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 28 Week Fantastic week for the shorts and recovery late week let us finish the week with an awesome long trade after a shakeout. With the spring and return into rotation zone, preference will be to long on retracement. Weekly: Average down up bar closing near high = strength Additionally, it looks like a reversal set up. Daily: High volume up bar closing at high followed by average volume up bar closing at high = strength H4: Very high volume up bar closing at high = strength Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4874 4800 4740 4587 4525 4446 4380 4337 4290 4213 4133 4037 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
Stocks Swing After Markets Weigh Russian SanctionsStocks had a wild ride yesterday. We sold off to 4122, where we found support and retraced the entire move back to 4293, over a hundred points, before retracing a bit to the mid 4200's. This degree of volatility in the stock market makes it difficult to foresee what today or next week has in store, but we may be starting to form a massive inverse head and shoulders with a neckline in the mid 4200's. The Kovach OBV has picked up from lows suggesting there is real buying happening as stocks bottomed out. If this is the case, then we can expect the S&P 500 to make a run for 4364 again, then 4440. If not, we could retrace the entire move back to 4122, but this seems less likely.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
What the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Means for StocksStocks have plummeted after Russia attacked Ukraine. We were seeing an inverse head and shoulders type pattern forming with a low of about 4272, but strong bear momentum smashed through this level and headed down further into the 4100 handle. Currently, we are finding support at 4122, where a green triangle on the KRI is providing support. After that, there is a vacuum zone to 4068, then 4009, the very last level in the 4000 handle. It is likely stocks will try to jostle for footing, so expect some volatility today. We could retest 4272 again, but that is most likely the ceiling for today.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SP500 WeeklyLooking at the SP500 Weekly chart, we have so far retraced about 11% from the top, and it doesn't seem to be the bottom. The market appears to be going for another test of the 4200-4250 area. If the support breaks, we could reach the 4000-3900 zone. If we try to simulate Covid not happening, consider that the market has seen a higher growth before Covid, take into account all other factors (FED, inflation, current tensions) and try to simulate longer-term behavior, it also brings us towards the 3900-4000 area. The area of 3900-4000 seems to be where Weekly EMA200 would be touched, which SP500 likes to test. On top of that, the correction of SP500 would be close to 20%, which doesn't sound unreasonable. If SP500 weekly support at 4200-4250 breaks, it could take up until late May for the market to find the bottom and reverse the trend. Better safe than sorry.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by alphascala
Can Stocks Break Out??Stocks have been struggling to find footing in the wake of Russia tensions. As we mentioned before, stocks found support at 4272. A green triangle on the KRI confirmed the support here. We are currently attempting a bit of a pivot from here, with 4364 providing resistance for now. We are seeing a (rather messy) inverse head and shoulders type pattern here with a "neckline" at 4364. If we are able to break out from this, we will surely see resistance at 4440, then 4580. The Kovach OBV still is not convinced of any bullishness at this point, and is remaining at lows for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Selloff with Russia TensionsStocks turned sharply lower as the Russia/Ukraine crisis has escalated. Putin has sent troops to separatist regions in the Ukraine and the UK and EU have suggested to respond with sanctions. We have retraced the range fully, testing 4272 once more. Recall that this level has been in our reports all this month, so you should have been prepared. We are seeing support here at 4272, and appear to be attempting a pivot from this level. However the Kovach OBV is still bearish, suggesting that we may be seeing some headwinds. Our next target is 4364, then 4440. We should continue to have support from 4272 in the event of another selloff, but if that breaks, then 4245 is the next level where we can expect support.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight)$SPX fell further with a loss of -1.58% last week, driven primarily by worsening Russia-Ukraine developments. Risk sentiment was further pressured by disappointing growth-stock earnings reactions and lingering concerns about a Fed policy mistake. 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the week in negative territory. With a considerable loss of -1.58% over the week, improved posture in weekly market breath is actually observed as below; % of Stocks Above 200 DMA = 34.29% (+0.03%) % of Stocks Above 50 DMA = 35.54% (-0.14%) $SPX remains resisted by a Downtrend Line, along with its 200-day moving average. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week remains at 4,320 level. A breach of 4,320 level would be concerning in mid-term as it would confirm the establishment of a downtrend channel (lower highs, lower lows) on $SPX.
SP:SPX
by jfsrevg
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 21 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 21 Week Short preference last week worked well. Scenarios: 1) If 4212 - 4267 is support = long 2) If price retraces on lower volume will look for short opportunity. 3) If market breaks 4212, wait for test and reject to short, or if 4212 is supported, then it will be a long opportunity. Weekly: Average down bar closing near low = weakness. Additionally, it looks like a reversal set up. Daily: Average volume down bar closing off high = demand present. H4: Very high volume up bar closing toward low = weakness Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4874 4800 4740 4587 4525 4411 4318 4267 4212 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
Stocks Dive but Find SupportThe S&P 500 has retraced from relative highs at 4487, reentering the previous value we identified yesterday. Recall that we asserted yesterday that if stocks retraced, they would likely enter the value area between 4272 and 4440. We do appear to be finding support roughly in the middle of this range, just above 4364, where we saw support Monday. Stocks could be feeling out a new value area between 4364 and 4487, relative highs. The Kovach OBV has curved over, suggesting that momentum has dried up for now. If we continue our descent and break through 4364, then 4272 is sure to provide support. If we see a rally, then we must break 4487, then 4580 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Range, Anticipating Russia/Ukraine DevelopmentsStocks are ranging after inching past resistance at 4462. The S&P 500 was able to break this level of strong resistance but just barely, encountering resistance at the next level at 4487. We met resistance here confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI, and then retraced back to support at 4431. The Kovach OBV has leveled off completely suggesting it could go either way from here. The markets are clearly not convinced that the Russia/Ukraine saga is nearing a close. If we retrace further, we will reestablish the value area between 4272 and 4440. If we see a burst of momentum, then we must clear 4462 again, then the next target is 4521. After this we must solidly break 4580 before considering higher levels.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
All Eyes on Russia Tensions as Stocks Edge HigherStocks have risen a bit off alleviated Ukraine/Russia tensions. Troops have apparently pulled back, though several Ukrainian government institutions have been hacked, which adds some ambiguity to the overall picture. We appear to have an inverse head and shoulders type pattern forming off recent lows, as we penetrated the value area between 4440 and 4272. We have made an attempt to break through to higher levels but 4462 is currently providing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. Watch momentum at the North American open. If we are able to see another burst of momentum, we could make a run for highs in the value area above, where 4580 is likely to provide resistance and prove to be a ceiling for now. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but does appear to be weakening as we meet resistance.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Tensions Easing? Stocks Get a LiftStocks have gotten support from 4364, roughly the midpoint of the range they were holding between 4272 and 4440. We have since broken through that high and attempted 4462, the next level above, where we are currently meeting resistance, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. Perhaps this rally follows news that some Russian troops have returned to base, and the Ukranian tensions may be easing a bit. The Kovach OBV has picked up ever so slightly, but if we cannot break through to higher levels, we should see the bear rout return, and test 4440 again, or break lower into the previous value area once more. We still anticipate 4272 as a floor for now. The next major target is 4580 if bull momentum returns.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) $SPX breached its 200-day moving average, as $SPX upward momentum faltered with a -1.90% plunge on Friday after National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan acknowledged there was a “distinct possibility” that Russia could invade Ukraine before the end of the Olympics. $SPX ended the market week with a loss of -1.82%. $SPX remains resisted by a Downtrend Line coinciding with its all time high VWAP resistance. It is worth to note further deceleration of deterioration on market technical is witnessed on US Market Net Highs/Lows, with only -65 companies for the week (comparing to -121 companies on previous week). The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,320 level. A breach of 4,320 level would be concerning in mid-term as it would confirm the establishment of a downtrend channel (lower highs, lower lows) on $SPX. he large-cap indices struggled last week, as risk sentiment was pressured by increased rate-hike expectations and concerns over tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The S&P 500 fell -1.8%, the Nasdaq Composite fell -2.2%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -1.0%. The Russell 2000, however, rose +1.4%. Wednesday’s Fed minutes may provide a sense of how quickly policymakers want a rate-hike. The U.S. data calendar features January figures on producer prices, which will be closely watched after data last week showing consumer prices hit their highest in 40 years last month. Meanwhile, earnings season is ending, but not before a last flurry of reports. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. 1. Geopolitical tensions – Gold & Crude Wall Street’s three main indexes closed sharply lower on Friday after the White House warned that a Russian attack on Ukraine could begin any day. While stocks got hit, prices for Treasuries, the dollar and other safe-haven assets, such as gold ($GLD) rose. Crude prices also surged as the prospect of sanctions on Russia, a top producer, added to fears over already tight global supplies. Some analysts believe soaring crude prices could exacerbate already high inflation, adding to pressure on the Fed to raise rates more aggressively. 2. Geopolitical tensions – Lessons from 2014 In keeping in line with history, we could draw lessons from when Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Tensions intensified over February through March in 2014 with the ensuing invasion drove a brief rally in the US 10-year Treasury note from a peak of 3.03% at the end of 2013 to about 2.58% by early February before stabilising in a 2.45%–2.6% range until June. There was a similarly mild and short-lived response in stocks and at a time of many other developments. The S&P500 sold-off by under 6% from late January through early February 2014 and then went on to rally for the remainder of the year. Russia eventually got heavily sanctioned and the ruble eventually collapses and subsequently drives imported inflation much higher. That scenario in 2014–15 drove the Russian central bank to hike its key rate from 5.5% at the start of 2014 to a peak of 17% by the end of 2014. The Russian economy achieved no growth in 2014 and shrank by 2% in 2015. Nevertheless, differences to 2014 include the facts that Russia’s military build-up appears to be much larger this time than in 2014 and both Europe and the US appear to be much more supportive militarily. Whether the net effect raises risk, or lowers it given a stronger counter presence is highly uncertain. 3. FOMC With markets already pricing in a strong chance the Fed will hike rates by half a percentage point at its upcoming March meeting, Wednesday’s minutes from the Fed’s January meeting, will be scrutinized for any indications on how big a move officials are contemplating. Last month Fed Chair Jerome Powell flagged a March lift-off and said there was “quite a bit of room” to raise interest rates without threatening the recovery in the labor market. Last Thursday Bullard said in the light of the latest CPI reading he now wants a full percentage point of interest rate hikes over the next three Fed meetings. On Friday, Goldman Sachs said it now expects seven quarter percentage point rate hikes this year, up from its previous forecast of five, as it updated its forecast following Thursday’s U.S. CPI data. 4. Earnings Earnings season is drawing to a close, but this week will see a big flurry of notable reports. Airbnb Inc ($ABNB) reports on Tuesday, followed by semiconductor giant NVIDIA ($NVDA) and Cisco Systems ($CSCO), which are both due to report after the close of trade on Wednesday. Deere ($DE), the world’s largest maker of farm equipment reports Friday. Retailer Walmart ($WMT), known for its everyday low pricing, reports Thursday, and is better positioned than other retailers to withstand rising price pressures. The pandemic has triggered inflation across the supply chain from labor to raw materials, forcing companies to pass higher prices onto consumers. However, many companies could still not fully offset the impact and that hit their profits.
AMEX:RSPLong
by jfsrevg
1