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Snp500

Can Stocks Rally Again??Stocks have edged up to highs, hitting our exact level at 4729. The level 4668 provided good support on Friday's small retracement. The Kovach OBV is drifting higher, but this indicator seems weak with respect to the rally, and so we anticipate some resistance at these highs. If we do retrace then 4693 and 4668 should provide support. If we are able to break out, then 4763 is the next target. This level is a Fibonacci extension level from Fibonacci levels anchored on the upper and lower bounds of last night's move. We are starting to get into the holidays, so we will see if stocks have the strength for one more breakout before traders sign off for Christmas break.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Drift Lower Ahead of CPIStocks have been subtly trending downward after topping off just under highs at 4729. The 4700 handle did not hold very long and we quickly declined back to comfort in the 4600 handle. We are currently seeing support at 4668, and have a long way to go to retrace this rally, should momentum peter out. The Kovach OBV has flattened as we await CPI data. Watch out for CPI data this morning. Higher inflation has been a persistent worry for the past few months, and it does appear to be factored in, but a large deviation from expectation could certainly still move the markets. The Federal Reserve is in a difficult position, potentially being forced to raise interest rates on an already shaky economy to combat inflation. If we see more forward guidance from Powell, this will definitely have an impact on stocks. The S&P 500 does have support from levels below in the 4600 handle, but below those, there is a vacuum zone to 4580.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Awaiting Key Macro DataStocks seemed to have topped off just below highs. Persistent risks like the impending Evergrande default, Fed tapering, and Omicron seem to be completely shrugged off. However we do appear to be in a sideways correction between 4668 and 4729. We are seeing both green and red triangles on the KRI corresponding to the upper and lower bounds of this range and suggesting a narrow band for the price action for now. Tomorrow is a big data day, as we will have CPI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment. It would make sense for stocks to hold the range in anticipation of this data. But if we do break out, 4729 should provide resistance. If we break down from this range then there is a cluster of levels below ending at 4632. Watch the vacuum zone below that to 4580.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Can Stocks Make Highs Again??Stocks have rallied for two straight days, breaking through several levels of resistance. We have spanned almost two handles, from 4500 to 4600, and are facing resistance just below 4700. In particular, we are starting to see the price action round off around resistance at 4693. The Kovach OBV has turned up notably, but appears to be rounding off with the price action. Stocks are looking top heavy with this rally somewhat a surprise in the face of consistent fears such as Omicron, Fed tapering, inflation and the supply chain. If we do retrace, then we have a cluster of levels below in the 4600 handle to provide support. Watch the vacuum zone below 4632 down to 4580. If momentum continues, then 4729 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Make a Run for Relative HighsStocks got a lift yesterday as investors turn hopeful again after Omicron fears subside. We broke resistance at 4580, and crossed the vacuum zone after that to 4632. Currently, we are testing higher levels, 4652 in particular. This is a relative high, and area with which the S&P has had some trouble in the past. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, however. If momentum does continue, we should find resistance from 4668, 4693, then there is a vacuum zone to 4729. These cluster of levels should provide resistance and if momentum peters out we could easily retrace back to 4580.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Waiting for NFP DataStocks have attempted a meager rally, as news of the Omicron strain and Fed tightening seems to have been digested by the markets. We do have non farm payrolls data coming in at 8:30 AM EST, which is one of the biggest trading data points, so stocks are likely to hold off in anticipation of the results. This is a particularly meaningful reading, as investors look for a barometer on the faltering economy. We are seeing resistance from 4580, as this is a particulary auspicious level. We have a vacuum zone above this back to 4632. From below, we should see support from several levels below. Lows at 4504 should be considered a min lower bound for now. The Kovach OBV is very bearish, despite a rally attempt by the S&P 500, but we will need to wait for US jobs data this morning before it decides a direction.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
Omicron Weighs on Global StocksWe cautioned readers yesterday to exercise caution with stocks and this advice was warranted, as stocks have dipped further into negative territory. Global stocks have pushed lower with news of the first case of the Omicron strain of the Coronavirus was confirmed in the United States. We have broken through what appeared to be strong support at 4580, then 4564, taking out several levels below, and finally finding support at 4504, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. All of these levels we have discussed in the past, and we gave comments to yesterday's report keeping readers updated. The Kovach OBV is quite bearish, but we are currently seeing another meager attempt at a rally, which is currently facing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI at 4545, another one of our levels. From here it depends on how the markets will interpret this news further. A rally will have to break 4580 and cross the vacuum zone above for stocks to attempt a recovery. Further fallout could break 4504 and test the 4400's, with 4487 and 4462 being the next targets. We still advise caution in buying this dip as the fallout may persist, or we may see at least some volatility as markets jostle for footing.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Leading Indicators are BURNTAs forewarned, the Leading Indicators were previously pointing to a burn out, and now half of the leads are burnt. JNK and VALUG are bearish, as are TLT and VIX indicating bearishness. IWM, TIPS, and DJT have failed any bullish indication, skewing towards bearishness. The S&P500 futures are at support now... likely to break down, even for the beginning of a month. Overwhelmed by the "shock" of a new variant, perhaps it is time. IMHO, Omicron is a precursor... it should be mild, but its existence is indicative of the next wave. So, not to be ignored, and especially not to be forgotten. This is like Nature's forewarning of 2022. Stay safe!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
Three Reasons to Be Bearish of StocksThree factors are weighing in on stocks lately. We have the persistent boogeyman of the new Omicron coronavirus strain that is vaccine resistant and has been weighing on global markets all this week. Also, Fed Chair Powell has made some hawkish statements about rates and tapering in response to inflation. Finally, the OECD has voiced a gloomier outlook for the US and Europe on account of persistent inflation. Hence, stocks plunged further breaking support at 4580, but bottoming out at 4564, the level just below. We are seeing a green triangle on the KRI here confirming support, and are currently getting a lift at the time of this writing. We've bounced through the vacuum zone and appear to be running out of steam just under 4632. This level will prove formidable, and we have several levels to break after that before considering highs again. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, but this could indicate that we are oversold and confirm the relief rally we are seeing right now. If support levels don't hold, 4545 will be the next target from below.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
How to Trade Stocks as Omicron WeighsCoronavirus fears continue to weigh on stocks. In particular, the Moderna CEO predicts less effective vaccines for the Omicron variant, and this has sent stocks back to lows despite an attempt at a rally, yesterday. We made it as high as 4668, which we have identified as a new technical level, before falling back to lows, which appear to be holding for now, perhaps by a thread. A green triangle on the KRI does appear to be suggesting we are finding support here at 4580, but are not really seeing much of a bounce. If current levels don't hold, we could see support at 4564, 4545, or 4504. Watch for stocks to make another bounce and perhaps form a bear wedge with a lower bound at 4580 before cracking it. If we do catch a bid, then 4632 and 4649 need to be broken before we can consider higher levels again.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
Omicron Variant Weighs on StocksStocks plummeted off of renewed coronavirus panic over the Omicron variant, with 23 different spike proteins. It is currently evading all vaccines, and poses 'very high global risks' as per the WHO. This new boogeyman has permeated through the markets and we are likely to see lower levels in stocks until the risk has been priced in. Today is the Monday after the US holiday, so the markets are likely to jostle for direction over this issue. We smashed through the 4600 handle, finally finding support at 4580, where a green triangle on the KRI confirmed the support. Currently, we are testing 4632, and 4649, but the Kovach OBV is still very bearish, so it would be fomo to pile into a long trade at this point. We should see continued support from 4580, but if this does not hold, we have a cluster of levels below to provide further support down to 4545. The next target will be 4693 if we catch a bid, but we have to break 4649 first.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
SPY Dropping. Or is looking to more. SPYThis is an ETF chart of the famous SNP500. We are at the end of some stage of an impulse. A critical stage and it is hard to know which one exactly with so much fiscal stimulus getting pumped into the virtual sector. Similarly, the lows to which we will drop will be highly dependent on how much for the the FEDs are going to print USD. This is assuming, of course, the the plans are in place to print more money in a move of the so called quantitative easing. If you live in wonderland, Modern Monetary Theory is not really modern, neither does it really work. Economic realities can and will catch up sooner rather than later. We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Rykin_Capital
Stocks Ranging Below HighsStocks have stabilized for now between 4649 and 4693. We are seeing quite a bit of volatility in this range, suggesting that we are jostling for value. The Kovach OBV has slumped, which makes it highly unlikely that the S&P 500 will be able to attempt new highs before the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US which starts tomorrow. We are seeing several green triangles near 4649, which suggests that we should continue to see great support at this level. If it does not hold, then 4632 will be the next to provide support. If we are able to break 4693, then 4729 is the next target before we can consider new highs again.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Three Factors Impacting Stocks TodayStocks made a run for highs with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's renomination yesterday. The S&P 500 briefly made new highs, but was quickly sold off, due to fears of a rate hike and a dimmer economic outlook in Europe. We have smashed through support at 4693, and are currently in the vacuum zone between 4649. The Kovach OBV is still pretty strong despite the selloff, suggesting an upside bias. If we find support at current levels, we must break 4693 again. If not, 4632 is the next level of support below.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
What to Expect Before Stocks Make New HighsStocks are edging up to highs at 4729. We appear to be running into resistance in the low 4700's. We are currently seeing a red triangle on the KRI confirming the resistance at current levels at 4717. The Kovach OBV was rather flat, but has picked up recently. It will take some formidable momentum to break out of 4729, so watch for a selloff if we continue to approach this level. Eventually stocks will make new highs again, but that may follow a bull flag or other bull consolidation pattern first. If we retrace further, then 4693 should provide support, but beneath that we have a vacuum zone down to 4649
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Nov 22 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Nov 22 Week 4674 / 4711 provided good trade opportunities. The bull/bear tug of war at 4700 region will resolve by 1) price returns to channel and continue upward (whipsawing still expected) 2) Exit of channel, market rotate / mushroom over Weekly: Shortening of thrust and narrowing of spread. Price closed about level with the 2 bars before it, volume is low. No demand for higher prices at the moment. = Weakness may be expected Daily: Upthrust bar closing off low on background of minor strength. If next bar closes higher. strength will continue, wait for pullback to long. If next bar closes lower will confirm weakness, wait for test of resistance to short. H4: Indecisive Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4764 4733 4668 4648 4613 4590 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677