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Combined US Indexes - Bullish Flip?Previously though that there would be some volatility and a bearish trend forming with a previous low revisited, BUT NO... volatility popped and then so did the indexes. They bounced to meet the trendline resistance to end the week. In the same effort, closed the Gap as well. Meanwhile, MACD and VolDiv are turning upwards in support. Current flip to Bullish Confirms with breakout of trendline (after Gap closure) Watch these week's price action...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Hey SPY lovers, look at all that green! Do you believe me now?We are undoubtedly in a scenario where the price is showing a lot of strength. As we can see, the price previously attempted to break all-time highs but encountered an institutional liquidity block, trying twice and creating a double top before making a pullback for days ! This second attempt to break the all-time high will be very important because, after the pullback, we were able to forecast the limit where the price would bounce back. Just one candle with a lot of volume and buying pressure was enough to realize that the price would reverse at $544. If you've been following this analysis for weeks or months, you'll notice that everything is playing out according to our price action and institutional analysis. Now, we just need to wait for that ATH, and I think this time will be different, especially considering that we're in election months, and the current president's political party wants the economy to look strong before the elections. So, we can expect a bull run from now until November. Thank you for supporting my analysis, and if you've benefited from it and made profits, congratulations, I'm happy for you. Best regards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
SPYLOVERS ! The Pullback is here ! What to do next.... Good morning everyone and welcome to another weekend session. For those following the SPY, we can see that the institutional rejection did indeed occur with a double top, and it was unable to break the Al Time High (ATH), leading to a pullback that we had already predicted weeks ago. The question is: How far will the pullback go? I have two levels: a liquidation zone limit and a historical demand zone. Warning: DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE ! The idea here is to let the price do what it needs to with this drop. Once it reaches one of these two zones, we will start to see bullish volumetric candles indicating the beginning of an upward trend. For now, this analysis has been unfolding as we have been forecasting the movement. Let the price fall, and be very alert to determine whether this is just a small pullback or a longer one. We already know where the price will likely land. Sending greetings and thank you for supporting my study.
AMEX:SPY
by RocketMike111
Double-Top In PlayAs expected, SPY double-top looks to be playing out. I don't expect us to drop much lower than the pink ascending trendline. Maybe we'll touch that 200 dma before our full send. Let me remind you that the pink ascending tl is the neckline of a large cup and handle pattern on the bi-weekly, the target of which remains 650-700. This is still in play on the longer timeframe and as long as we don't break below the pink tl with confirmation on the weekly, I will start to buy back at or around the pink tl and down to the 200 dma. Batting 1000% thus far and hoping to keep it perfect.
AMEX:SPYShort
by stewdamus
1
Combined US Indexes - Warning Trend Change to DOWNFrom the last post, there was a Gap closure and breakout... well, almost. What happened was a stall after the gap closure. This is the first indication that something is not right and a strong resistance is in the way. After more than a week, a decisive down candle wiped out two prior days of bullish candles, and reopened the earlier gap. This by itself is very bearish... first on the candlestick pattern, and next on the reopening of the gap. MACD have crossed under the signal line, in support of the bearish undertone. Now, we wait for a full reopening of the gap, meaning a further breakdown of the supports. By simple projection, the down wave from mid July to August (blue arrow) is projected from the last lower high in mid-August. This brings the target to mid-September, at an old critical support level of 780. Oddly enough, am expecting this to happen by the end of next week.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
BTC Retracement to $30k levels. After US elections pump to $90k.Bitcoin appears to be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the larger timeframes. A potential drop to the $28k–$32k range could mirror the corrections seen in previous bull runs, creating a textbook inverse head and shoulders pattern. A price target of $90k is derived from the measured move of the previous post-drop rally, further supporting this bullish scenario. Additionally, a smaller inverse head and shoulders pattern, formed between January 2022 and January 2024, has already played out, reaching its projected target. This reinforces the reliability of the pattern in the current market context. Several key factors suggest that a pullback to the $30k region could be highly bullish: 1. The large inverse head and shoulders pattern suggests a potential move to $90k from $32k. 2. The 200 SMMA is expected to align with the GETTEX:29K –$30k range when BTC reaches that level. 3. The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is at $27.7k, with the golden zone around $36.5k. 4. On the weekly chart, the only occurrence of the "Three White Soldiers" pattern is within this price range. If no weekly candle closes below $30,250, it would be another strong bullish signal. 5. The previous bull market correction aligns with a current target of approximately $37k. 6. Notably, BTC has yet to experience a significant correction during this bull run. In summary, a dip to around $28k, followed by a weekly close within the bullish Three White Soldiers price range (above $30k), would likely signal a continuation of the bullish trend and me opening a long term long. However, the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17-18th could introduce volatility. If rate cuts occur as expected, this has historically been a bearish event. Coupled with current global developments, it suggests BTC might be in a bear phase that could extend until after the 2024 U.S. presidential elections. If former President Donald Trump isn't re-elected, the current bull run might be at risk. The U.S. government has discussed unrealized gains taxes for millionaires, which could drive wealthy investors away from risky assets like crypto. Additionally, the market's sentiment appears overly bullish, with many top traders providing optimistic analyses despite bearish signals. This often precedes a market reversal. I'm keen to hear your thoughts and ideas on this analysis—please share your perspectives!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Achilly
SNP500 / SPX🔍 SPX/USDT Analysis: Daily Timeframe 📉 SELL IT! The SPX chart on a daily timeframe highlights significant upcoming dates where price movements may present trading opportunities. These should be analyzed in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view. • September 3, 2024 - Red Line: This date marks a potential local peak. Traders might consider this as a moment to take profits or reduce exposure, as the price could encounter resistance or a downturn. • December 6, 2024 - Red Line: This date is another potential local peak, signaling a possible moment to exit positions before a downturn. When working with this daily timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective. Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few days. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
SP:SPXShort
by trushkovskiy
SPY LOVERS ALMOST ATH AGAIN!! But be very Careful read this... We are very close to the price reaching our institutional order block in the supply zone, where we could expect a small liquidity rejection upon touching it. According to my forecast, the maximum rejection would be at 549.71, no more! This is a historically significant zone where the price has shown important impulses and patterns. Additionally, the price is moving with a lot of volume and buying strength. We are very, very close to reaching new all-time highs, but the big question is: Will it surpass the all-time highs this week? In my opinion, it might, but we must be very cautious as it could be an institutional liquidity trap leading to a strong pullback. So, we need to stay alert to any movement it makes. Thank you for supporting my analysis; so far, everything has been going according to the forecast. Best regards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
8
Preparing For A Potential Double-Top HereTraders, As you all know, the SPY has been moving EXACTLY as anticipated by me the last two years. And that worries me. Don't get me wrong, I have thoroughly enjoy the profits that have come with getting it right, but what we have to be careful about when doing so well is over-confidence. Because if we don't take a couple of steps back and say to ourselves, "I could get it wrong this time", then we could likely get it wrong. The market loves to humble cocky traders. And that is why I have sold half of my longs once again ...just in case I could be wrong. So, you can all read my previous posts and calls on the SPY, but for new readers, let me just catch you up with a brief summary to give you some context. About 2 years ago, after the market had dropped and many investors thought it would continue down, I came under the persuasion that it would soon reverse. Though, I am a rookie when it comes to Elliot Wave, I had noticed some other contrarian traders and chartists had begun to explain from a fundamental basis why it would move up soon. These same investors began plotting a likely blow-off top scenario based on fundamentals, market psychology, and Elliot Wave theory. It made sense to me but I was hesitant to go full in based on this information alone. I began reading more about market fundamentals and psychology and learned that most of what I read actually supported the idea of a blow-off top. Then I spotted another pattern on the daily chart (an inverse head and shoulders pattern) which strengthened the theory even more. This pattern gave me my SPY target of 570. You can still see that Previous Target outlined here on my chart. We nearly reached that target. Missed it by a few dollars. It was there that I sold half. And right on time. The Japanese carry trade flash crashed the markets and down we went. As we were nearing the 200 DMA, I spotted a new bullish pattern on the weekly chart. This was a Cup and Handle. I bought back in near the bottom recognizing that this blow-off top was probably not at an end ...yet. Fast forward to today. We are once again nearing my Previous Target of SPY 570 and though we could move even higher (and I honestly believe we will), I want to prepare for a scenario where I could be wrong. You can see from the chart here that we may also be forming a bearish double-top or M-Pattern. If this is the case, it is wise for me to prepare for another drop soon. Thus, I have once again, sold half. Should the M-Pattern play out, I will likely buy back in around the 200 DMA (wherever this happens to be at the time) because I still believe that Cup and Handle pattern on the 2-week chart will play out and that the blow-off top will not end until we reach 650-700 on the SPY. Obviously, this forcast could change based upon significant geo-political/global events. But for now, this is how I see it going. Scenario 2: If we do not drop and that M-Pattern becomes invalidated. I will also buy back in should we exceed my previous target on the chart. In either case, updates will follow.
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
Will The SPY Hit 650-700?Just an update on progress in the markets. The dollar has hit my support level already. Because of the quick drop, I expect it to continue to drop even further, though we may get a bit of a bounce first. The Vix is back down and inside of our long-standing sideways channel. And gold has hit its target to the upside. Plus we'll talk about where the SPY (and U.S. Stock market) is going. That section of the video begins around 07:30 if you want to skip right to the title content of the video. And towards the end of the video, we'll of course discuss where I think Bitcoin is still going before the end of the year and also, where I think it will end up by the end of next year. These are longer-term targets but they are not solely predicated upon technical analysis. Though the technicals do help support my claims, there is also some fundamental rationale for why I believe the markets remain so volatile, but overall, they will continue their journey upwards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by stewdamus
Combined US Equities Since the last heads up analysis before the bearish pullback, some more new developments came into play, particularly how the equity market turned bullish... 1. Heads up given for RISK ON in the green ellipse. The weekly chart is actually very obvious with a long tail candlestick; 2. The latter part of that week finished with a combination of a long bullish candle, breaking and closing above a resistance trendline; 3. Then continued by another breakout of a range; and 4. This week closed with another colid bullish candle that closed the gap resistance, with another bullish candle to boot. 5. MACD and VolDiv indicators are bullish since the early part of the week. Can easily expect a revisit to the last high of 906.50, but not before a retest of the gap support.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
MSFT / MICROSOFTMSFT (Microsoft Corporation) Stock Analysis: Key Dates and Potential Market Movements: 1. August 23, 2024 - Potential Upside: • Scenario: The chart suggests that Microsoft might experience a bullish phase around late August 2024. This could be driven by positive quarterly earnings, strong product launches, or renewed investor confidence in Microsoft’s cloud and AI strategies. • Impact on Price: We may see Microsoft’s stock price rally, potentially revisiting previous highs around the $460-$470 mark. • Reflection: As we witness the potential rise in Microsoft’s value, let us also reflect on the importance of placing our trust in both our investments and in a higher power that guides our steps. 2. November 11, 2024 - Potential Downside: • Scenario: Moving into November 2024, the chart indicates a potential bearish trend. This could be attributed to broader market corrections, changes in global economic policies, or challenges within the tech sector. • Impact on Price: Microsoft’s stock might face a pullback, potentially testing lower support levels around $380-$400. • Reflection: In times of decline, whether in markets or in our personal lives, it’s our faith that provides stability. Just as we hold onto our investments during downturns, we should also hold onto our faith, trusting in recovery. 3. January 2, 2025 - Recovery and Consolidation: • Scenario: By early 2025, Microsoft might enter a recovery phase, possibly driven by strong end-of-year performance, increased adoption of new technologies, or favorable market conditions. • Impact on Price: This could lead to a stabilization or gradual increase in the stock price, with potential movements towards $420-$430. • Reflection: As the new year begins, let this recovery remind us that perseverance through challenging times, with faith as our foundation, often leads to renewal and growth. 4. July 14, 2025 - Continued Growth or Consolidation: • Scenario: The chart suggests that mid-2025 could either continue the growth trend or enter a consolidation phase, depending on market conditions and Microsoft’s performance in the first half of the year. • Impact on Price: If positive momentum continues, we might see Microsoft’s stock breaking new highs; otherwise, the stock could trade sideways within the $420-$450 range. • Reflection: As we navigate the complexities of the market, let us remember the words from Proverbs 16:3, “Commit to the Lord whatever you do, and He will establish your plans.” This verse encourages us to combine faith with our strategic planning. 5. November 8, 2027 - Long-Term Outlook: • Scenario: Looking further ahead, the chart indicates significant potential shifts by late 2027. This could be influenced by global technological advancements, changes in leadership, or major economic events. • Impact on Price: This period could mark either a major breakout for Microsoft or a significant correction, depending on the overall market environment and Microsoft’s adaptation to future trends. • Reflection: As we plan for the long term, let us build our investments on solid foundations, just as we build our lives on faith. In doing so, we prepare for both the challenges and the opportunities that lie ahead. Considerations for Investors: • Technological Innovation: Microsoft’s ongoing advancements in AI, cloud computing, and enterprise solutions will be crucial drivers of its stock performance. • Market Sentiment: Investor confidence in the tech sector, especially in established leaders like Microsoft, will play a significant role in price movements. • Economic and Geopolitical Factors: Global events, such as trade policies, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic trends, could impact Microsoft’s performance. As we approach these key dates, how do you plan to position your investments in Microsoft? Are you prepared to navigate both the potential ups and downs, relying not only on market analysis but also on a steady foundation of faith?
NASDAQ:MSFT
by trushkovskiy
NFLX / NETFLIXMarket Insight: NFLX (Netflix, Inc.) Our predictions have highlighted key moments for investors: • First Green Line (August 12th, 2024): A potential buying opportunity, as market conditions stabilize. • First Red Line (October 28th, 2024): Consider taking profits or reducing exposure before possible market downturns. • Second Green Line (January 6th, 2025): A favorable time to re-enter or increase positions, with market optimism on the rise. • Second Red Line (April 14th, 2025): Another signal to safeguard your investments, preparing for possible volatility. These points serve as guiding lights, helping navigate the financial journey with both wisdom and discernment.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by trushkovskiy
TSLA / TESLATSLA (Tesla, Inc.) Stock Analysis: Key Dates and Potential Market Movements: 1. August 23, 2024 - Potential Upside: • Scenario: The chart indicates a potential bullish movement around late August 2024. This could be driven by positive earnings reports, advancements in Tesla’s technology, or an increase in market optimism around Tesla’s leadership in the EV market. • Impact on Price: We might see a short-term rally in Tesla’s stock price, pushing it towards previous highs around the $270 mark. 2. October 15, 2024 - Potential Downside: • Scenario: As we approach mid-October 2024, the chart suggests a potential bearish phase. This could be due to broader market corrections, profit-taking by investors, or any negative news related to supply chain disruptions or increased competition in the EV market. • Impact on Price: Tesla’s stock could see a pullback, potentially testing support levels around $215 or even lower. 3. February 19, 2025 - Recovery Phase: • Scenario: By early 2025, the chart indicates a recovery phase, possibly due to strong Q4 2024 earnings, the introduction of new Tesla models, or significant advancements in battery technology. • Impact on Price: This period might mark the beginning of a new bullish trend, with Tesla’s stock price climbing back towards the $250-$300 range. 4. May 9, 2025 - Consolidation or Continued Growth: • Scenario: The market could enter a consolidation phase, where the stock trades within a range, or Tesla could continue its growth trajectory depending on the broader economic conditions and Tesla’s performance. • Impact on Price: If the market conditions are favorable, Tesla might break out to new highs; otherwise, we could see sideways movement in the $250-$300 range. 5. September 4, 2025 - Potential Market Shift: • Scenario: As we approach late 2025, the chart suggests another critical phase, potentially influenced by macroeconomic factors, such as changes in interest rates or shifts in consumer demand for EVs. • Impact on Price: This could lead to either a breakout to new highs or a retest of lower support levels, depending on the prevailing market sentiment. 6. December 4, 2025 - Year-End Rally: • Scenario: The end of 2025 could see a year-end rally, driven by strong sales numbers, holiday season demand, or favorable policy decisions regarding EV subsidies. • Impact on Price: Tesla’s stock might experience a strong rally, potentially setting new highs or revisiting levels around $300. Considerations for Investors: • Technological Advancements: Tesla’s continued innovation in battery technology, autonomous driving, and energy solutions could be key drivers of its stock price. • Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment around the EV market and broader technology sector will play a crucial role in Tesla’s stock movements. • Geopolitical and Economic Factors: Changes in global trade policies, supply chain disruptions, and shifts in consumer demand could impact Tesla’s performance. Given the potential market shifts and Tesla’s leadership in the EV space, are you considering adding Tesla to your portfolio? How do you see Tesla’s position evolving as we approach key market dates in 2024 and 2025?
NASDAQ:TSLA
by trushkovskiy
SPY Lovers ! Bullish and Strong but wait... there is a challengeThere's really not much to analyze here. As we can see on the chart, SPY remains strong and in an upward direction. What I'm expecting: I'm waiting for the price to reach my 565.16 zone as a rejection or liquidity point so that it can regain strength and eventually break through the zone later on. Other than that, there's not much to analyze—SPY remains strong. The challenge this week will be reaching new highs, as we have very important economic news coming up, which could bring a lot of volatility. We'll see what happens this week. Thank you for supporting my analysis.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
SNP500 / SPX 🔍 SPX Analysis: Navigating the Upcoming Market Movements 📉 The SPX chart presents key dates that traders should focus on: September 18, 2024 & December 3, 2024 & February 3, 2025 - Green Lines: These dates indicate potential local lows. These could offer strategic opportunities for accumulating positions as the market is likely to bounce back from these points. November 11, 2024 & March 10, 2025 - Red Lines: These dates are projected to be local peaks. Traders should consider taking profits around these times, as the market could face resistance or start to decline. Currently, the SPX is in a downtrend, with a potential reversal expected around September 18, 2024. This could be an optimal point for re-entering the market or adding to existing positions. #SPX #StockMarket #MarketAnalysis #Trading #Investing #S&P500
SP:SPXShort
by trushkovskiy