Snp500
SPY Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SPY is trading in an uptrend
And the price broke the key
Horizontal level of 460$
Which is now a support and
After the pullback and retest
I will be expecting a
Bullish continuation
Buy!
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S&P500 Retracement 07.12.2023The U.S. benhmark indices are currently experiencing high volatility and large deviations from the mean.
Yesterday the S&P500 dropped heavily and has not retraced fully after reaching the important support at near 4550 USD. This might be completed today with the index price reaching the 61.8 Fibo level at least as indicated by the arrow.
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ES 6H OverviewOverview
ES is currently trading within a range from 4541 to 4508. Should the levels of 4500-4508 remain supportive, the next upward target is the supply zone around 4555. If it falls below 4500, a noteworthy area is approximately at 4485. Further down, there's a significant break and retest zone at around 4430.
Key Levels
Range: 4508-4541
Supply: 4555
Area of Interest: 4485
Break and Retest: 4430
SNP500 & My BIG SHORT - Recession TradeSPX is destined to drop hard, back to 2009 lows.
I decided to go short, to catch the next Market Crash.
It's the previous Wave 4 of a lesser degree.
If you know Elliott Wave as I do, then you are getting ready too.
In my opinion SPX500USD has topped a Wave 5 of a large degree.
More info on that in my Full Wave Count for that 150y old chart.
Here's a picture on that SPX500 / US500 Monthly Chart:
Now, what are the main reasons behind my BIG SHORT on US500.F ?
1. The Volatility Index (VIX) is showing a Fractal, the 2007-2009 same/exact sequence.
2. The United States Consumer Confidence Index (USCCI) is telling me that Consumers are entering the Fear Period.
3. The Federal Reserve Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS / FRED) has broken out of an important Downtrend.
4. The US Inflation Rate (USIRYY) is saying that a full-blown war has started.
5. The 10y Treasury Note Yield (TNX) just broke out of a 40y Downtrend.
6. The US 10y Government Bonds (US10 / US10Y / USB10YUSD) finalized a big bearish leg.
7. The Crypto Market Cap (TOTAL) & Bitcoin (BTCUSD) : The Golden King is taking over.
I know what you might be thinking: SPXUSD could actually do one last Bullish move, an overshoot in the last of the last 5th, right?
In this case, the Wave Count on ES1! could be one step behind, and the Impulse Extension in the 5th of 5th was left out.
Yes, that could be a scenario as well, and I will get burnt.
However, I do not think that's the case, so I am loading my Shorts on SPX500USD !
I could not help but noticing that SPX500 is doing the same Fractal Sequence it did on the previous 2007-2009 Recession.
My Sell Orders & Trading Signals on the SPX Market Crash:
* Aggressive Entry: @ Market Price ($3960)
* Moderate Entry: @ $4500 with SL @ 4900
* Conservative Entry: @ 4700.0 with SL @ 5400
* Position Trading: Sell Stop @ 3700.0 with SL @ 4800.0
* Targets @ : $3200 / $2750 / $2500 / $2200 / $1800 / $1400 / $1100
* Safety measures: when in the green, moving SL @ BE.
Good luck and many pips ahead!
Richard, the Wave Jedi.
The Expected Bounce was on Queue. Tomorrow We Drop.Traders,
We have been batting 1000 lately when it comes to the SPY. Might as well make another bold prediction. It would seem that the greatest probability of price action is outlined in the chart. An inverse H&S is forming and the right shoulder has yet to start.
I predicted the target down from the last H&S pattern to be 410. That was hit, almost to the dollar. I then predicted a huge bounce. We have that now. In fact, 7 days of green candles! Amazing. I even predicted the timing of the bounce. The charts gave me all of this data. I just had to read it correctly.
Now, the chart is telling me that it's time for a bit of a pause. If correct, we should see the right shoulder from that inverse H&S drawn now begin to form. If we're lucky we stay in my outlined green channel by using that 200 day ma near the bottom of the channel as support.
Blowoff top underway!
LFG!
Stew
NDQ, NDX, Nasdaq, Us100 setupIf price should trade above my Take profit 15209.56 - 15210.69 before 9:30am NY time on the 6th of Nov 2023, then I favor a market reversal to take profit below. But if market doesn't do that, I look for a direction which I believe the market should be going. Idea will be updated frequently.
This is a daily chart
ES 4H Analysis ES experienced a remarkable surge in the past week. However, we've returned to the crucial breakout and retest range of 4400-4430. For the rally to persist, it would be ideal for ES to have a moderate retracement and maintain demand in the vicinity of 4325-4340. While the price might continue its upward trajectory without a pullback, a measured retracement would be a positive sign. It's essential to remember that we remain in a declining channel and are approaching a vital zone characterized by the breakout, retest, and trendline resistance. Anticipate inconsistent and sluggish price movements (cooling period) before either a continuation or a reversal.
Key levels to monitor:
Resistance: 4400-4430
Support: 4325-4340
SPX : Overbought zone by Band of Midas
Nothing much here. Just a reminder.
Personally, i took my handsome profit.
1. 5 green candlesticks overbought.
2. Go into Upper Band of Midas.
3. Take profit and wait the next entry near mid midas line.
Huge profitable week. Took profit and have a good weekend. #bandofmidas
Combined US Indexes Bounced UP!Heads up that there is a significant development in the market structure, as observed by the last two weeks of activity.
Previous week, the weekly candle broke down two support lines, and closed well below. In addition, there was support from the TD Sequential counts for a downward momentum. This was also corroborated by the MACD and the VolDiv.
However, despite the technical indications, the market movement was totally opposite that started with a gap up, and ended with strong upside momentum. There are two very clear indications of a trend change:
1. The opposing candlestick is large and closed above the last six close; and
2. The TD Sequential reversed and started the opposing Setup.
Taken together, this are the first indications of a real trend change.
Next, this would need to follow through, and break above the trendline, and then the marked resistance.
Dxy Dropped. VIX Dropped. You Know What That Means?Traders,
SPY has bounced exactly as the charts had shown us it would do. I will briefly discuss what we can expect now in the weeks ahead as we continue our move towards the target of our blowoff top.
We will also look at a few of my short plays. I will discuss what I was thinking in entering and what I expect now.
I was stopped out of the NVDA play and will update my spreadsheet soon! BTC and SOL shorts are still on and SOL is well into profit.
Stewdamus
S&P / ES Setting up for shorts tomorrow and next week.S&P / ES are in an abnormal distribution right now; up 5% in a week even including priced in prior to Fed Interest rate, looks like a convenient short hunting continuation path at this point. Idea is, it should present a short set up pretty soon after the NFP and into next week, levels are stated in the chart, good luck.
S&P After 1 YearIt has been just over one year since my last post on the S&P 500 (Oct 2022) and the index is up by around 19% since then. Not bad. (adding the link of my related post.) The weekly chart with the indicators and the pattern between the Fibonacci levels show that it's highly possible that the pattern will be completed and we'll be testing the all time high at 4818. This week's bar seems to be a bullish engulfing bar which is a reversal of the down trend. Although the future is unpredictable, there's a chance of 11% upside according to this construction. Let's see how it goes.
SPY (Stocks) Should See a Nice Bounce This WeekTraders,
As mentioned in several of my previous posts and last video, SPY has now reached its downside target. This level at 410 provides strong support and correlates with our level of support on the RSI. I expect this week to be an up week for the S&P 500 and the stock market in general.
Best,
Stew
SPY Has Now Hit Its Target Down of 410. Now We Bounce.Traders,
We have been watching for this target to be reached for a few weeks now. Today we hit it. And just as I suspected, our RSI cooperated and synced with the price support, hitting its support at the very same time. Strong support in price levels conjunctive with strong support on the RSI means that the probability of a bounce next week is highly likely.
Best,
Stew
S&P-500: All Support and Resistance for Bull and Bear ScenariosLet me explain this. ALL SPIKES ARE THE SAME. However, the different timeframes and chart scales create 4 unique layouts for both Daily and Weeklies.
The top two are Dailies and the bottom two are weeklies. I have labeled which chart scale they are on.
THE TOP TWO HAVE RESISTANCE SCHEMATICS (THE SAME TWO) .
As in, the extensions are RESISTANCE (IN RED)
THE BOTTOM TWO HAVE SUPPORT SCHEMATICS (THEY ARE DIFFERENT) . As in, the extensions are SUPPORT (IN GREEN)
*We have just intersected the 2.618 and now we either....*
A. Go to the 1.618 now at 3970...
B. We go back to 4.236 and crab around...
C. Go through the 4.236 and to the 6.854 where we possibly create a disjointed double top...
D. Drop through all support, destroy schematics at 3500 and find NEXT SUPPORT AT (GREEN)
BTW: The Dailies are 3 Day timeframes because Dailies are too strecthed. BUT THE DAILY SCHEMATICS ARE PURELY MADE FROM DAILIES SO IT DOES NOT MATTER.
---You may notice that the bottom two support schematics are
the same as #2 and #3 on my "S&P-500: All Fibonacci Schematics" idea linked below---
S&P-500: All Fibonacci SchematicsThis concept is known as Fibonacci Clustering. (many fib sets on eachother)
All Schematics have both Support and Resistance for future swings.
I will add more images below for you so you can visually understand what the Support and Resistance stems from.
Go to the linked idea for extra details if you want.
SPY 410 Target Now ConfirmedTraders,
A couple of weeks ago you'll remember I expected a bounce off of our 200 day SMA which coincides with the bottom of my channel, making a strong area of confluence and support. But I wasn't sure if that was the end of our drop? Turns out, after testing the underside of our neckline for a patent classic retest, we have now broken below the 200 day SMA and channel. Tomorrow will provide confirmation. As of now, I will say that our $410 target down is certainly in play. And look how it coincides with the RSI! We should hit 410 right about the time the RSI is also finding its support on our long-trending touch and go.
Best,
Stew
Combined US Indexes BROKE DOWNThe last week proved to be the straw that broke an important support level, to close the week at a recent low. This is very significant as it is the first indication of downward momentum, having bounced off the same support three prior weeks.
MACD appears to be deteriorating again in the past week, and the VolDiv is definitely not improving.
What this is projecting is that there is more downside to follow, and if it breaks the next support levels, there would be a strong downward wave as technicals would have aligned by then.
Heads up... likely going down further...
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VIII - Here the bear!Back to this set of chart overlay...
So, it is where it isand the SG10Y Govt Bond yields are again rocketing. This is yet again to push the SPY further down. Combine this with the double top seen recently; probabilities stack up for more downside into November.