ES 4HR Bear FlagIt's hard to pick a direction lately, but this 4 hour bear flag into prior support just screams bearish. Will it be a trap though?
Snp500
SNP500 heavy to the downsideLooking to short for SNP500
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SPX: I still think it is bullish, but getting a bit weakAfter this week, SPX is operating within a 4% price range. The most bullish case right now would be to break the upper range next week. Most bearish case would be to break the bottom of the range. Max pain would be to just mess around within the range.
Indicators are neutral to slightly bullish on weekly timeframe. RSI is kicking up above 50 which is bullish, MACD is steady; DI is shifting positive, but not full bullish yet. Right now, not telling much.
EW perspective, wave 4 is still valid and price should be in the early phase of wave 5. This can take some time to play out since wave 5 is usually a sucker's rally that initially sets up bear traps. We are already seeing potential diagonal structures in the lower timeframes. So, to keep it simple for now, I would say for now it is wait and see how things play out. Bullish above 4385, bearish below 4215. My personal bias is still to the upside and sold puts on Friday. If Friday's low breaks on Monday then I will be out of that.
Big looming h&s on weekly,daily SNP chartThe price technically broke below the h&s on higher timeframe, somehow price still got supported by the longer term trendline. Shall watch for this week as PA unfolds.
Retesting 4400 area.
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SPY Retest Complete. And Macro-Economic Ramblings of a Mad Man.Traders,
As expected, SPY bounced off of that 200-day SMA and performed a classic retest of the underside of our previous support, the neckline of our H&S. Now, the only question that remains is do the bulls have enough in them to break back above or do we remain on the underside of this neckline and potentially drop back down ...maybe even breaking the bottom of my channel (green) to proceed to our target down at $410? These questions remain unclear as of now, especially since the advent of yet another unsettling geopolitical situation and war in the Middle East. But I will watch this closely and keep you all up to speed. As of now, my bet remains that we continue upward somewhere within the boundaries of my channel even with another retest of the bottom. This supposition is mainly built upon what the dollar is doing now and will continue to do with the unprecedented allotment of U.S. dollars that will have to be printed and distributed to keep other country's wars continuing, fund the migrant costs (both direct and indirect), our regional banks afloat via guaranteed deposits, and the future economic collapse here in the U.S. that may start in commercial real estate or the housing market sector again. All of this (and we have not even introduced BRICS) will crush the dollar, eventually. Once this occurs it will take many more devalued dollars to buy a thing of worth, including stocks. More dollars to buy shares in a company will give the trading public an illusion of strength. An illusion is all that is needed. And on up we roar to complete Wave #5, the blowoff top.
Best,
Stew
SPY Local Bearish Bias! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
SPY is going up now
But a horizontal resistance
Of 433$ is ahead so after the
Retest we will see a move down
Sell!
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✅SPY LOCAL SHORT🔥
✅SPY will soon retest a key resistance level of 434$
So I think that the pair will make a pullback
And go down to retest the demand level below at 426.9$
SHORT🔥
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Combined US Indexes slammed furtherPreviously mentioned that the supports are being broken. It gave way after an expected bounce. The dip that followed came with confirmation technical signals as well as a lower low… suggesting that there is downward momentum still. Saving grace lies with a pullback rally to end the previous week just above the support line. However, this appears to be futile, with shallow bullish bounces expected, and a close below the major support line.
Thing is this… there should be a close below the line and it needs to hold below for another three weeks to firm up more downside. But a rally back up above that critical support (then turned resistance) would be a good bullish rally to look for, albeit later in the year end/beginning.
Next four weeks should see at least two weekly closes below support.
In line and in support of this indication, TIPS and TLT, with JNK have led the markets by pushing further new lows of late.
Heads up.
#ES Day Trading Prep Week 10.01 - 10.06Level :
Current Balance 4378.50 - 4321.50
Resistance 4349.50 - 45.25 // 4362.75 - 59.50 Key Resistance 4378.50 - 74.75
Targets if accept over 4389.75 - 92.25 Area to accept over for continuation to VAL
Support 4327.25 - 21.50 Key Support 4310 - 07.25
Targets if can get through HTF Support 4291.50 - 85.75 // 4272 - 65.50 Would need to accept under for any continuation towards the GAP under 4250.
Last Week :
Marked opened and consolidated around the Edge area with a test and fail over it which gave us a nice move towards lower targets for the week filling Contract Roll Gap and testing HTF Key Support top which provided a nice bid and pushed the market back into the Contract Roll Gap area which was market off as potential place to either bounce or find Support at and so far we have built up inside it and failed to take it out again on Friday.
This Week :
This might be a tricky week, we have made a big move lower since the start of the move from week 9.17 - 9.22, we had balance extension x 4 to get here and so far looks like might have found new Current Balance maybe at least for short term to do some cleaning ? It is a start of a new month and we do have market moving data and events this week so we will have to see if we actually stay in this 4378.50 - 4321.50 Balance or not. I would think we could at least hold within until mid week or so to build up some more structure to show us the way.
If Balance :
We are looking to spend some time in this 4378.50 - 4321.50 area and trade with in our Resistance areas are 4349.50 - 45.25 // 4362.75 - 59.50 Key Resistance 4378.50 - 74.75
Support in this 4331.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 areas ? Would need to accept Over/Under Key Resistance / Current Support areas to try and move out of balance.
For More Downside :
To see more downside ideally we would want to build up more over 4327 - 21 and then get a break / continuation towards Key Support at 4310 - 07.25 area which would be the spot to watch for more continuation and we could target HTF Support high and possibly low with targets at 4291.50 - 85.75 // 4272 - 65.50 this would be spot to get through to try and target lower Gap area under 4250. We would need either more supply build up or selling volume to get us to those areas this week. If heavy volume could see 4240 - 30 - 20s area.
For Upside :
To see upside from here we would want to build up in this range and start taking out Resistance areas to make a run at the Edge and 4378.50 - 74.75 would be Key Resistance to watch acceptance over to be able to target 4392.25 and VAL area above. We would need either a strong bid or run out of selling above 4370s in order to try and continue higher this week.
S&P500 - Would you buy this? I struggle when people say they are buying the "bottom" when talking about stocks nowadays.
Bro, you're not buying the bottom. You're buying the top.
Good luck out there.
Lower high and this can drop hard later unless the FED intervenes.
Major red flag.
Do Stocks Now Pump Again?Traders,
With the dollar and VIX down, there are no surprises with our SPY chart showing a nice big green candle on the daily. The question remains though, will we stay in my channel and above the 200-day sma or will we continue to proceed down to the H&S target of 410? My best guess is that we'll remain in our channel. As postulated previously, the 200-day SMA along with the bottom of my channel may be all the support that is needed to guide us onward and upward. This along with more than 11 straight weeks of DXY strength (time for a break) means that the beginning of Uptober could start today. And look at that RSI helping us out as well! Wave #5 is still well intact.
Best,
Stew
Trading Plans for WED. 10/04 - Bad News Good News?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 10/04
The lower-than-expected ADP numbers seem to be giving some hope that the bad news could soften the rising yields and the Fed going forward. The yields have already retreated this morning, and the index is trying to find a floor and rebound. Since our published trading plans two weeks ago pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated.
Any hope derived from bad/disappointing economic numbers could eventually morph into a concern for the economy and the potential recession talk down the road. Until a clear directional bias emerges to the bullish side, trading with technicals and confirmations appears the prudent way, rather than trading on fundamentals.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4285, 4270, 4245, 4220, or 4204 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4265, 4240, 4229, 4217, or 4200 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4280, and explicit short exits on a break above 4232. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #adp
Last Down Week for Stocks. Last Up Week for the Dollar.Traders,
The dollar is now starting 12 weeks of green. You can see that today it has touched the top of its channel and that has acted as resistance. Additionally, the RSI shows that the dollar strength is now over-extended. I smell a pullback coming very soon. Possibly before the weekend.
The SPY (which correlates in part with other major indexes) has this Head and Shoulders pattern in play. Target down is 410. But as I questioned in one of my last videos, is it possible that the target down will be cut short - held up by the 200-day sma which closely correlates with the bottom of my channel? This will act as a huge area of confluence and give the SPY good support. It is possible that the SPY is held up from falling further at this point and this makes sense when looking for clues from our dollar chart.
A fall in the dollar would likely correlate to a bounce in stocks. I believe it is reasonable to conclude that stocks will end their pullback soon and we can expect a bounce upward at either the channel bottom OR our target down of 410. Though, I am not sure that the SPY will maintain its posture within the ascending channel, I do not believe this is the end of our upward movement and blow-off top in the stock market ....YET.
Best,
Stew
SPX500 possible reversal bounceAfter price broke structure to the upside, it retraced and formed liquidity above a demand zone that was left behind during the expansion. Price could now use this demand and liquidity to fuel its move upwards to take out liquidity that as accumulated at the top of the structure
AMD Down -23% Since the last update | What's Next? 🤔Daily bouncing off demand after a massive sell-off. Low holds, and we can see a small pump into daily supply above, where shorts can get another chance to short it with a target of new lows.
Weekly looks like it's just working on a massive Head and shoulder topping pattern and should be resolved after the Santa rally.
Will continue to update if there are any changes to the roadmap
H&S on SPY active. Will $410 target be hit?Traders,
A strong dollar (11 weeks straight of green candles) and an elevated VIX has helped to trigger a break of this H&S neckline on the SPY chart. The pattern is now playing out but we are on support on the RSI chart where we can usually expect a bounce. Additionally, we have strong support at the 200 day ma just below us. Our target on this H&S is 410. The big question is will we reach that target or will the bottom of my channel which coincides with the 200 day ma catch us before falling that far?
Best,
Stew
XLK QQQ Down -10% Since the last BIG Short idea | Whats NEXT?AMEX:XLK Weekly structure changed, and the price is in a huge volume gap. Weekly head and shoulder breakdown and pops gonna get sold back down IMO.
First target hit and is now aggressively approaching the big target, which is the massive volume node around 150 🎯
snp a bounce before breaking down further?Just as mentioned about the trendline, once broken more downside to come.
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
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#ES Day Trading Prep Week 9.17-9.22Levels to Watch :
Resistance 4508.75-02.50 ? Key Resistance 4532.50-24.25-19
Targets if Over 4548.75-43.75 // 4570.62.50
Support Prev Day Low 4497.25-94.75-90 ? Key Support 4487.25-79.75
Targets if Under VAH, 4465.25-60.25 // 4449.75-45-34.75 ( Needs to break/hold for ANY continuation ) // 4422.75-18.75 // 4403-4392.25
Range Edge 4375.75-4359.50
Last Week :
Thursday/Friday after the contract roll we ended up in key bigger time frame Range Edge area at 4508-25, we consolidated around it, held above 4508-02 which brought more buying to give us a push and hold over 4532-24 Resistance midweek. From there market was able to take out 4548.75-43.75 and make a move towards our HTF Supply and next target at 4570-62.50. RTH failed to test it and instead we got a push in, consolidation and fail at that area during Thursday Globex and once we got under the Supply and 4448-43 that gave us a nice end of week sell back towards Previous Resistance and then Support at 4508-02 which we ended up breaking and closing under.
This Week :
Tonight we are set to open under our previous Balance of 4548-43 // 4508-02 area after a failed break out above at the end of the week. Question this week is this just trapped supply from our 4570-62.50 area or is this bigger selling that could possibly give us continuation this week towards our lower targets?
Or do we get consolidating around Key Support / Previous Day Low areas and or find strong enough buying to push us back over 4508.75 and keep us in that balance which chance at higher targets?
For the Downside :
If the Market fails to to get over 4508.75-02.50 and hold above then we could see a break of Previous Day low and test of 4487.25-79.75 Key Support, depending on volume it could take time to get through but IF we do and start holding under that could give us more selling to continue through VAH towards lower targets -- Contract Roll Gap 4465.25-60.25, We have Swing Stops and Mean at 4449.75-34.75 area if we get through 65-60. This would be area to watch and hold under for any continuation, if we do get through it and get more selling we have 4422.75-18.75 and untested after we broke back in from below VAL area at 4416.50-05.50 as potential targets. With next area to watch at 4403-4392.25.
For the Upside :
Holding under 4524.25-4508.75-02.50 area means continued weakness, longs would need to be done from lower Support areas either on strong bounces or after some consolidations, if we the selling strong then need to be careful and be ready to exit those quicker. If we do get a hold around Previous Day Low / Key Support area or get strong buying to give us a push back over 4508.75 and hold then we could target a move back towards 4519-24.25 which would be Key Resistance for any continuation higher this week. If we do get a push through 4524.25-32.50 we then could target 4570-62.50 RTH test but for now a lot of Supply above so need to be careful.
We could get more sideways balancing action in this 4480-90 // 4525 areas unless we can take out and hold under/over targets, Structure under is not very strong so would be surprising to not see any continuation at least towards 65-60 if we can hold under 4508 but we will have to wait and see what we get.
Will this H&S on the SPY play out?Traders,
In yesterday's post, I hinted at the fact that it looks as though SPY's upward trend, irrational as it may seem, will continue, fulfilling my blow-off top thesis. I still believe this to be true. However, along the way up, there will be obvious pullbacks.
We now have what looks to be a completed H&S pattern formed on SPY. Currently, we are testing this neckline support. Need confirmation to know whether it will be a break or not. Tomorrow we should find out. Till then, I am watching this along with the DXY (dollar) closely.
If the dollar breaks its overhear resistance, we'll also have our answer here. This head and shoulders pattern on the SPY should then continue to play out. Watch both of these indicators closely to find more clues on further price direction in U.S. stocks and crypto.
Until the next update, best on all of your trades!
Stew
SPY (Stocks) looks to continue uptrendTraders,
For the last year you have heard me preach this blow-off top. So far, we've nailed it. Today, the FED decided to continue the pause. No surprises here and it turned out to be a non-event in the market. The FED knows that they are "this close" to breaking everything. Macro-economically, we are on the brink of disaster both nationally and globally. Many people know this both logically and instinctively. Still the market will go against all odds and price stocks irrationally. This is happening. And my blow-off top is playing out perfectly!
The dollar has had 9 straight weeks of green candles. Time to take a rest.
The VIX hit a two year low this last week and remains suppressed.
Dollar down + VIX down = Markets UP!
Additionally, you can see from a technical perspective indicators that continue to support my blow-off top thesis:
Notice Elliot Wave. We are on the final wave now.
Notice that trendline (wave 5). We are still above that.
Notice Ichimoku cloud is green and beneath us.
Notice the 50 candle moving avg below us giving us support.
Notice the green area of support below us.
I am not telling any one of you that you are wrong if you believe we will eventually go down. I agree with you. But before that? BLOW-OFF TOP!
Best in all your trades,
Stew
snp undecided watching how things play outsnp on daily would not want to see a break on the recent uptrendline. If it does so, likely there would be more down side.
Friday's selling removed the whole of last week's mon-thurs up move which i anticipated. Let's monitor how things play out this week
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Watching for a bounce to resume uptrendSnp as covered last week, we were anticipating a downwards movement..so it did..right now...let's see if it pullback again upwards.
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Hello there!
If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
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Thank you!
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
