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Stock market peaks in July 2024, followed by an epic crash?I have made some calculations regarding potential stock market development in the S&P500 in the coming months. There is of course no guarantee that it will turn out exactly like this, but there are very interesting mathematical correlations in an optimal scenario. Since January 2018, the price has been inside an ascending channel with a couple of hits at both the bottom and the top of the channel and is on the way up. I have then measured the time and height from the covid low in March 2020 to the next peak in late 2021 and then made an exact similar measurement from the low in October 2022 to a possible future peak. Then I tried to find Fibonacci levels that coincide with the tops and bottoms of the chart. It can be tricky where there is no data but there are methods to resort to. If you measure from the bottom after the financial crisis in 2009 and to the highest before the covid rebound in 2020 (3397), you see that this ends up at the 50% level in this calculation. If you instead do a Fibonacci Extension between these levels, you end up at the same potential top level in the chart (double the distance). I have chosen to leave this out of the diagram to try and keep it as clean as possible. The really interesting thing is that all these measurements converge at exactly the same level and time. This occurs in July 2024 at ≈6121. Historically, peaks in the market usually occur around the same time that interest rates start to fall. According to the forecasts, it currently looks like it could happen in June this year. If all this were to occur, we can note that the rise from October 2022 will then be 75%. Should there then be a really big stock market crash and we look at the symmetry, i.e. 75%, we see that an equally large percentage decline would take us exactly to the levels at the double peak in the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the peak before the financial crisis in 2007. This is therefore a calculation based on an optimal scenario, and such scenarios unfortunately rarely occur. But it's worth keeping in mind in case the market takes us there anyway.
FX:SPX500
by magnusfogelberg
4
S&P500 Technical Analysis-2023Hello everyone, hope you all are doing good. Bullish Probability:(at least one or two weekly candle closes above 4100 than there is a possibility of this playing out). There is an active Bullish Divergence playing out in RSI, so there are chances S&P500 may put new high above 5k. If S&P500 put new High, then it can be a Triple Bearish Divergences, so after that it can be a massive dump of markets. In this case the 1st Bottom will be 3500, so the 2nd Bottom can be massive drop from 5k to 2000, previously S&P500 dropped its 2nd Bottom from 1580 to 670(-57%). Bearish Probability:(at least one or two Weekly candle closes below 3700 than there is a possibility of this playing out) Currently the Fractal of SnP500 looks like similar to the previous oct-2001 to july-2002 Fractal. S&P500 -> falling in a Descending parallel channel -> Breakout/Fake Out little and finally put lower low or 1st Bottom. If this plays out than RSI may fall below 30 - invalidating the current Bullish Divergences. (Sometimes Divergences get invalidated due to forceful movement of Markets). Target = around 3200 OR there is a possibility to fall on the sky Blue trendline. Thank you, please like and share, if you have any questions please comment.
SP:SPX
by nmchary
6
S&P: THE KISS OF DEATH MOVE.Hello traders, welcome to this S&P 500 update. This is my first time analyzing the S&P 500 and I hope it will be helpful. To analyze this chart, I am using the 21 monthly moving average and the kiss of death pattern. The S&P 500 is on its way to making a bearish move and it got stronger after the price got rejected below the 21 MA. The actual confirmation came into the picture when the S&P 500 bounce back after the breakdown and got rejected for the second time, this is where the 'kiss of death' pattern took place. I am not blindly shooting arrows here. In the past, we have seen a similar move happening and that led the S&P 500 to drop around -44% to -53%. Considering the current scenario, if the S&P 500 happens to drop down then we can expect a drop around -50% at 2140 where we have good support. As we all know that S&P 500 is known to be the best overall measurement of American stock market performance and if this goes down, we know where the market is heading. That's it from my end. Please do share your thoughts and ideas on S&P 500 in the comments section. I will be honored to know more about it from your end. Thank you and trade safely.
FX:SPX500Short
by Dexter_The_Trader
5
SP500 WeeklyLooking at the SP500 Weekly chart, we have so far retraced about 11% from the top, and it doesn't seem to be the bottom. The market appears to be going for another test of the 4200-4250 area. If the support breaks, we could reach the 4000-3900 zone. If we try to simulate Covid not happening, consider that the market has seen a higher growth before Covid, take into account all other factors (FED, inflation, current tensions) and try to simulate longer-term behavior, it also brings us towards the 3900-4000 area. The area of 3900-4000 seems to be where Weekly EMA200 would be touched, which SP500 likes to test. On top of that, the correction of SP500 would be close to 20%, which doesn't sound unreasonable. If SP500 weekly support at 4200-4250 breaks, it could take up until late May for the market to find the bottom and reverse the trend. Better safe than sorry.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by alphascala
SPX500USD 2021 May 10 Week (Intraday)OANDA:SPX500USD SPX500USD 2021 May 10 Week (Intraday) Weekly, Daily, H4 = Bullish Week of 03 May Scenario 1 materialized, green zone was tested. So short and long was fruitful. Bar A Ultra High Volume - possible outcomes from this 1) if this is an absorption of supply to break through the previous resistance of 4220 & 4220 can hold, will keep to long 2) If this is an upthrust price and 4240 - 4220 has become resistance, we can expect a good short opportunity. Like and Follow if you find this useful : ) Have a good trading week ahead!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by paradox677