US Market Technicals Ahead (12 Apr – 16 Apr 2021)Price volatility is expected to pick up this week. First-quarter earnings season gets underway with updates expected from major banks such as JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Citigroup ($C) and Wells Fargo ($WFC). While results are expected to be fairly strong, most will be watching to see what companies say about the outlook for the current quarter and the rest of the year, given expectations for faster economic growth.
On the economic data front, U.S. consumer price inflation (Tuesday) and retail sales (Thursday) will be the biggest data points of the week.
Global financial markets will also pay close attention to comments from a Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Economic Club of Washington on Wednesday, for additional insight into the outlook for monetary policy in the months ahead.
Elsewhere, in Asia, China will become the first major economy to report first-quarter growth data when it publishes highly anticipated GDP numbers.
Here is what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) furthered its ascend with a gain of +2.12% (+85.5 points) for the week, establishing an all time high closing of 4,122 level. This was aligned with our weekly market analysis highlighted last week.
It is important to note that the past week of daily incremental price action on $SPX has reflected a clear Bearish Divergence with its transactional volume. A price retracement upon a eutrophic rally beyond the structure of a technical trend channel is always imminent on such scenario. However, the hypothesis of a short term correction for $SPX would remain healthy and strong for the bullish sentiment of the index.
With price volatility expected to pick up this week due to the series of major economic events, the immediate support to watch for $SPX is at 4,030 level, a trendline resistance turned support level.
U.S. 1Q Earnings Season Kicks Off
The first quarter earnings season on Wall Street will kick off in the coming week, with banking giants JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Goldman Sachs ($GS), and Wells Fargo ($WFC) all set to release their latest quarterly results on Wednesday.
Earnings from Bank of America ($BAC), Citigroup ($C), and Blackrock ($BLK) are then due on Thursday, followed by Morgan Stanley ($MS) on Friday.
Overall, Q1 earnings are expected to have jumped nearly 25% year-over-year, according to Refinitiv. That would be the biggest quarterly gain since 3Q 2018, when tax cuts under former President Donald Trump drove a surge in profit growth.
Financials are expected to show one of the biggest earnings gains, up 75.6% year-on-year, while materials are seen up 45.4%.
U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
CPI is expected to have risen 0.5% last month and 2.5% over the prior year, according to estimates. If confirmed, it would mark the fastest increase in eight months.
Excluding the cost of food and fuel, core inflation is projected to climb 0.2% from a month earlier and 1.6% on a year-over-year basis, a tad faster than the 1.3% increase registered in February.
Rising inflation expectations helped spark a first-quarter selloff in Treasuries that drove yields to pre-pandemic highs in recent sessions.
U.S. Retail Sales
The consensus forecast is that the report will show retail sales jumped 5.5%, rebounding from February’s steep decline of 3%, which was the biggest drop since April 2020.
Excluding the automobile sector, sales are expected to rise 4.8%, snapping back from a drop of 2.7% in the preceding month.
Fed Speakers
A number of Fed speeches will get market attention in the week ahead, as traders watch for further clues on interest rates.
Topping the agenda will be remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell who will be speaking on Wednesday at an Economic Club of Washington event.
The Fed chair has reiterated lately that any emergence of inflation should be temporary and that the central bank will keep its accommodative policies in place for a long time.
China 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
China will post its first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on Friday morning.
The data is expected to show the world’s second-largest economy grew 18.8% in the first three months of 2021 when compared to the year-ago period, accelerating from the previous quarter’s 6.5% pace.
Besides the GDP report, the Asian nation will also publish data on March trade balance, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, and fixed asset investment.
China’s economy has shown signs of improvement in recent months, with activity rebounding to pre-pandemic levels thanks to a resurgence in global manufacturing and a sharp recovery in domestic spending.
Snp500short
SNP,likewise nasdaq looks heavy....soon to knowIf you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
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Short MarketThe market has reached its all time high creating a new higher high which can be treated as a resistance @3941.1 for now. The RSI suggests that the market has been heavily overbought on 30m chart and a recorrection is to be expected.
On 4hr chart the support level 3896.8 is constantly being tested and looks like the market will test this level one more time before making yet another bullish move. If bears break the supp levels expect the market to test zone @3877.7 to 3868.5 supp level.
Else the long move is to be assumed go up to 4017.0.
Supp levels:
3918.0
3894.5 --> getting weak
3877.7 to 3868.5 --> strong supp zone
S&P500 hourly chart pans out bearish bias adn what is next...As highlighted previously, this is a breakdown of the technical development of yesterday's market tank.
26 Jan gave heads up of the impending trend change.
There were two ranges (white rectangles) pre and post Trump-Biden transition
Lower High and Lower Low series happened, then it puked...
VIX gave clear and present danger heads up (another story in review)
So how now, brown cow?
Bounce underway... should see stalling about 3780
and then look for next breakdown to 3600
S&P 500. P-Modeling Pt Z. The Start of a New EraWelcome Hyperspace Travelers,
I am your travel guide Glitch420.
This is a 4-Hour Time-Series Analysis of S&P 500.
This is for personal research purposes only. Lurk at your own risk.
This is a Time-Series based analysis. Snapshots taken over timeframes to model structural movement as I see it. In order to grasp what you see you must look into my past successes and failures. It is a journey only for the curious. Are you curious? I am.
Please see previous failures here--->
Same narrative...
Please see PART A. The successful 3400 top call. -->https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/Qzc6ZRDL-S-P-500-Index-P-Modeling-Pt-2-Inert-Cajuns-of-Quantum-Strings/
^----- We are going to make my targets from the original idea... You must go thru past ideas in order to see how we got here and what the narrative is and has ALWAYS been.
"Nothing has changed to the observing user.
Much has changed to the ignorant one;
McGyver the small details".
___________________________________
DXY is key. Hyperinflation cycle to DXY.
TP:: 110.
Current Price of DXY is 90.7
In order to grasp this mechanic you must open be open to the possibility that everything you understand is an illusion:
Influx of over a 700+ billion dollars will flow into USD from Crypto.
Tether is FUCKED.
________________
Chaos..
Simply.
Fucking.
Chaos.
Everywhere..
________________
The transition to the Fourth Industrial Revolution has begun.
'The Cybernetic Era of Advancement'.
This is inevitable.
This is the future.
Where you dreams are obsolete.
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Where your dreams are within reach.
Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me,
Glitch420
SNP500 ShortsAlways risky selling equities as the risk-on environment is still quite strong.
However, we are at all-time highs and I like the equal lows created on last drives showing some selling strength.
I will be looking to trade into high OB into last swing OB taking out equal lows. at 1:6 I am willing to take the risk.
S&P500 Finally has a trend turning indication...Earlier today, incoming POTUS, released details of his new stimulus plan (after market close). It appeared to be rather aggressive, but the S&P500 futures only accorded a mild gap up overture (1H chart), only to close down the gap in the next hour.
Chart here is the 4H ES1! S&P500 futures chart, which broke down just...
The main point here is that there is a price range after series of record highs, and finally, it appears to be fresh out of juice.
There is a classical twin peaks, with a Lower High on 13 Jan, and the Lower Low that was just made.
Note that the Bollinger Band is being pushed as well, and it remains to be seen if there is a pull or a drop following into the pre-market hours.
Meanwhile, the price momentum (lowest panel) is indicating the start of downside momentum, and the MACD just crossed over into the bear territory.
Also noted in the chart that the system sell signal just triggered.
Looking forward to downward momentum almost 50 points, a Lower High, and then the last low support should be giving way...
Stay safe & have a good weekend ahead!
A Decade Review of the S&P500 (SPX): Market MilestonesHello Traders and Investors! Here I show a clear overview of the bumpy ride we had over the past decade in the stock market. The leading indicator for our index is the SNP500. We are entering possibly another rocky ride with the current elections, but there is one thing that we can learn from history: we should always be calm, disciplined, collected, and most importantly, buying the dips.
2009 Bull Market vs. History
The 2009-2019 bull run topped the nearly 10-year bull run of the 1990s. The bull run that started in Oct. 1990 and lasted 113 months, while the 2009 bull run is going on 127 months! Only one other bull market has lasted longer than seven years, and it was the post-World War II run that started in 1949. In terms of returns, the 2009 bull market has the longest streak but it remains in second in terms of the best return. The 2009 bull market has generated a 330% return since the March 2009 low. The bull market of the 1990s saw the S&P 500 post a 417% return over its nearly nine and a half years. Meanwhile, the bull market following the Great Depression is close behind our current bull market. The Great Depression bull market started in June 1932, lasting 57 months, with the S&P 500 posting a 325% gain over that time. The most important thing is, all bull markets have given great returns.
Major Moves of This Bull Market
Some of the biggest and scariest drops during this recent bull market have been attributed simply to surging investor fear. This includes the 2011 anxieties over the spread of the European sovereign debt crisis. It also includes the most recent market plummet in the fourth quarter of 2018. Much of this massive drop was caused by fears of a global economic slowdown, a U.S.-China trade war, and rising U.S. interest rates. We also had the unexpected event of COVID19, which brought us down to severe lows in a short amount of time - yet was followed by an unexpected 100%, and ultimately led to ATHs.
What's Next for the Bull Market (Elections?)
The big question now, of course, is whether this 10-year rally will continue. Bull markets end with recessions, and while we've seen many bumps on the road to where we are now, the stock market has managed to recover (at least eventually) each and every time - including the current COVID19 case. There will always be serious risk factors and fears that pervade markets. Whatever happens, the most important thing is, there can always be firsts. History is never indicative of present action, but we can see rhymes. The major rhyme here is that that the stock market has continuously gone up over the past century. Late in 2018 was a rather severe example of this. But we don't believe this bull market, though it's been exceptionally long, has run its course just yet. Many economists still see growth in the economy and aren’t expecting a recession anytime soon. Unemployment continues to fall and the recent corporate tax rate cuts can help keep spending elevated - especially with either Biden or Trump entering the picture.
For more information on presidential elections, check out my previous post on the past election cycles that had an effect on price:
Trade Safe.
X Force
S&P 500. A Macro Case for the Reversal of a 12 Year Long TrendPlease feel free to leave your comments below.. I would love to get your feedback and input
S&P E-MINI 500 (SWING) 15MINWe have a Sell Signal for my prediction
Take profit and Stop loss Mentioned on the Chart as you see
1989-2020: SNP500 Presidency Timeline - What's Next?This post is to show you an overview of how the SNP500 has grown and declined over the past 4 presidencies, starting with Bush Sr. (1989), and now currently, President Trump (2020) - respectively.
We can see some very interesting commonalities between the red and blue. Just a disclaimer, this is not a political post, so please keep the comments mature! This is a mere observation and analysis to shine some light on why I think it does not matter what political party you are as the main goal is to profit within the market.
Some interesting commonalities that I am seeing between the US Presidents in red is that we have seen an incredibly peculiar V shape recovery. These V shape recoveries usually occur after a sudden drop within the market and recover faster than expected after some unexpected event within the timeline. Such examples include the 2001 Dot Com Boom, 2008 Financial Crash, and now the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
Some interesting commonalities that we can see with the blue presidents is that there has been record growth by the time they have left office, usually surpassing well beyond 100% growth in the SNP500 Index.
As much as I would love to go into all of the different reasonings and policies that each president has implemented during their time in office, I feel like that would create some discrepancies within the comment section. This is just a pure observation!
The whole point of this post is to say that we should not care what political party we are, rather, focus on how to profit the market via ideological positioning within the timeline. We can see that if we bought the dip during anytime of these presidencies, we would have profited by holding! BUY THE DIP.
Trade Safe.
X Force
S & P 500 The Next 3 WeeksBearish hidden divergence evident here. The bulls will have to contend with a lot of selling pressure all the way up to the election and perhaps into the new year. The Republicans don't want to pass the stimulus bill. They only want to be able to shift all blame on the democrats for the crash that they are orchestrating between now and when Biden assumes the presidency. Good luck. Don't fall victim to the political games.
Why the Biggest Crash Is Nearing (Beyond Fundamentals) - Part 2The SPX (SNP500 Index) monthly chart has been giving clear signals in the past with regard to overall changes in trend. With all of those trends taken into consideration, we can see an extremely similar situation with the current price action. As we also take into account for current political, geopolitical, COVID-19, and tech stock inflation factors, we can assume that no rally is sustainable without a correction. Keep in mind, this is only an observation by using the simple bearish and bullish divergences. A bearish divergence occurs when the price action by candles, shows a higher high, while the oscillator for the RSI shows a lower high - indicating that price momentum has died off. I also show in the chart that it's possible to identify key points when the market is showing demand for the stock market even if it's in a downtrend, where the general public might assume the major crash is coming - this is a bullish divergence
- The 2008 recession was signaled by a clear bearish divergence on the weekly, and even the monthly. This took months to play out, but with each rise, you could have bought in and still profited with a high average. Following the financial crisis, the 2009 bottom and reversal into a 9 year bull market was signaled by a strong bullish divergence on the weekly.
- When many thought the market was crashing in early 2016, a strong bullish divergence showed that selling momentum was done and that a bullish continuation would resume. This was due to the confirmation of a bullish divergence on the price action. It meant that there was CLEAR demand for cheaper prices.
Current Sentiment shows that a large bearish divergence on the monthly chart is forming and we may be in a bear market until proven otherwise.
S&P 500 Analysis UpdateSnp Reached the daily strong resistance we might be looking for shorts in this area
Please Share your Thaughts In A comment and don't forget to drop a like
S&P E-MINI 500 (SWING)Probability: 65% for my prediction
We have a Sell Signal
The Stop loss and Take profit As Mentioned on the Chart
S&P E-MINI 500 (SWING)Probability: 65%
The market will keep going down
Take profit and Stop loss Mentioned on the Chart
could we be in a rising wedge ??here is what could be playing out in S&P 500 the RSI is now start to show over brought
I have made a short position showing what the target is for the wedge
S&P 500 nearing its peak, prepare for reversalHi All, current uptreding nearing its climax with reversal set to start at around 3420-ish area. Be ready to test 3060-70 level.
Global Market COLLAPSE begins in SeptemberThis is not a dot com bubble or a housing bubble, this is "Everything Bubble" which is about to burst.
The crash will potentially be quick and painful.
Dollar is about to collapse.
Covid cases will rise in september due to weather changes.
Stimulus checks will not be enough.
Smart money will start taking profits.
Be careful
This is not an investment advice, always do you own research.
A potential interim top for the S&P500The last two days of the week saw a technical turn in the S&P500 futures, ES1!. It started with a surge rally that sputtered, followed by a bearish engulfing and a down candle to complete the three outside down candlestick pattern. This is supported with a MACD crossdown in a bearish divergence setup.
Appears to me meeting the 55EMA, the trailstop and widening wedge support, at about 3100. Red ellipse shows the downside target contact point that should be decisive.
This comes after deviating from earlier two weeks expectations for an interim top, which did not happen. So, here we have yet another higher probability set up.
S&P500 in short term consolidationThe S&P500 futures the ES1! 4H chart shows a consolidation range of about 150 points with the 55EMA running in the middle of this range acting as a medial resistance. The 4H MACD suggests of a bearish bias; and breaking out of this range below the support means a continuation of the downside. 3100 appears to be the strong resistance at this point.
Some things are clear:
1. The S&P500 peaked out at 3230 (see daily chart too); and
2. The daily MACD is in line with the 4H MACD crossover into bearish territory, likely over the next two days.
We had earlier warnings, now is yet another. Watch carefully.
Last chance!!
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Do share your comments and views too, please. Am open to exchange views and learn from each other.
