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Snp500short

🤷‍♂Are retail investors getting caught in a major bear-trap?🔥The S&P500 has been in its longest bull market in history, did that come to an end in March 2020? Is this a dead-cat bounce or is the bottom in and we should starting putting on our S&P500 40k hats? One sign of this being a dead-cat bounce is that since 2018, the RSI (an indicator of the momentum) has been declining while prices have been rising. In 2019 and 2020 the RSI went below 50 for the first time in 8 years, while prices made new all-time highs. This does not mean it’s a dead-cat bounce, but shows signs that the bull market was already losing steam before 2020. There has been a slew of articles stating retail investors using apps like RobinHood is on the increase. With very little sports betting going on, many are turning their hands at trading to "buy the dip". During every bubble the ones that get burnt are retail investors who are the last ones to the party, the stock market just went on its biggest bull run ever, retail investors missed out and thanks to the lock-down have all come running in at once to hold the bags. RSI doesn’t show a lot of monument for such a strong price movement since March, this could be due to retail investors who usually buy in smaller amounts. What does the S&P500 need to push to new highs? The markets need good news, the best form of good news is from earning reports, companies keeping dividends etc. But we have not got that, instead we got higher job losses, dividend cuts, bailouts, bankruptcies. These are all signs of a fragile economy. The market is moving up on news of fresh government stimulus, but will this enough to get the market to reach all-time highs? If you keep printing money will that make the economy better? We are about to find out. If we do not breakout to the upside, we can expect to re-test the lows around 24,500 and if that does not hold, the 19,000 range.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by BangkokCharts
SPX: Potential Corrective Trend 1D (May 12)X Force Global Analysis: The S&P500 index has been showing a clear bull trend for the past few weeks. However, as the "V" shape recovery takes place, we witness a weakened bullish momentum, and a probability for a corrective trend to take place. In this analysis, we explore the bullish and bearish technicals to determine the probability of a correction. Bullish Evidence - First of all, it's important to note that we have broken through the descending trend line resistance, marked in the dotted red line - In doing so, we have created what looks like a reverse head and shoulders pattern, a bullish reversal pattern - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a clear uptrend, with higher lows - And the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still demonstrates bullish histograms after a golden cross Bearish Evidence - However, based on Elliott Wave counts, there is a probability for a corrective trend to take place - We have seen a clear Impulse Wave count (12345), and are expecting a Corrective Wave (ABC) to play out, possibly down to the 0.618 Fibonacci support - The MACD is looking for a death cross, with decreasing bullish histograms - It's also important to note that while we have been in a bullish trend for the past few weeks, the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) Ribbon has not converged yet - Thus, solely based on the EMA Ribbon, it's too early to confirm the continuation of a bullish trend - Moreover, we are not only testing the upper Bollinger Band resistance, but the band width is also narrowing - The narrowing of the band width usually occurs before a big move Market Sentiment: Surprisingly, the market sentiment still remains at fear, as we are at 44 on the fear and greed index. This indicates that the market participants are cautiously bullish. What We Believe We believe that a correction is highly probable, based on Elliott Wave counts, and a number of other bearish indicators. However, should we see further bullish momentum from this point, it could serve as a confirmation for a continuation of a bullish rally. Trade Safe.
TVC:SPX
by XForceGlobal
2
S&P 500 Index (SPX) - Rally could end here Hey everyone, here's the analysis on SPX. Follow us, leave a like and comment on stock ideas you look forward to seeing next! Analysis: R1 zone is a strong resistance and breakout zone and price could drop to our S1 zone at 2541.5. If this level does not hold, it could drop lower to our next support zone, as illustrated by the black lines. Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading and investing. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Trading BEAN and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All contents featured here are solely for educational purposes and ARE NOT investment or trading advices. Please do your own due diligence and trade at your own risk.
TVC:SPXShort
by TradingBean
SPX: A Technical Approach to the Stock Market 1H (Apr. 20)X FORCE GLOBAL ANALYSIS: In this analysis, we take a purely technical approach to the S&P 500 Index. Bullish Evidence - We see a bullish divergence, with higher lows on the price, and lower lows on the indicator - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows lower lows, as well the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) - We are also creating higher lows and higher highs in an ascending trend line, having broken through a lot of strong resistances - The RSI is looking for another breakout through the descending trend line resistance Bearish Evidence - However, we also spot a bearish divergence, in which the price forms higher highs, and the indicators show lower lows - The RSI is trading within a downtrend, showing signs of weakening strength, forming lower highs and lower lows - The RSI is at overbought levels - The MACD also shows greater bearish histograms and a downtrend in the moving averages, showing a lack of momentum - On the bigger picture, we are trading within a bearish ascending wedge Market Sentiment: We are still at the 'fear' zone in the fear greed index, but as the stock market showed a strong bounce, bullish sentiment begins to kick into the market again. What We Believe Based on purely the technicals demonstrated in the chart above, it seems as though the probabilities for a bearish case are higher. However, given that we take into consideration the amount of money the US government and Fed is looking to pour into the financial market, as well as the improving situation of the Corona Virus (Covid-19) in the states, the bullish scenario's probabilities aren't comparably too low either. Trade Safe.
SP:SPX
by XForceGlobal
5
Covid crisis and S&P500The previous resistance at 2635 was broken after 3 attempts and now, forming the new support line at that level. New resistance is currently at 2810 and has been tested twice. Look like it might head down a little before trying the resistance again. The stock market continued to rise last week, even as Labor Department data continued to show signs of high unemployment level. The most straightforward reading of the mismatch between the stock market and the labor market data is that Congress did a much better job preserving the value of capital owners’ investments than of saving jobs. Another reason might be that investors have gotten very optimistic. It’s true that intense restrictions on activity seem to be effectively slowing the spread of the virus. And it’s true that the Italian and Spanish experiences suggest that means that we could be seeing declining deaths and case volumes by the end of April.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_hao
Rallies in 2008 relative to nowDuring the 2008 financial crisis, there were 6 different rallies before the market really bottomed. The rallies ranged from 9% gains to up to 26.5% gains right before it took a 30% dive and bottomed at $665. Afterwards, it just took a bull run for the next 10 years. What we can gather from this is that, any rally might just be temporary and potentially, there might be a sharp downturn after this bull run for the last 2 days similar to the last rally in the 2008 financial crisis. That might also signal the bottoming out which can be a good entry point to start entering the market.
TVC:SPX
by Trader_hao
QE release, long SnPAs requested by many to take a look at equities market, i shall do some basic analysis from now on on the shares market in US and globally. Equities Market just surged for futures of S&P500 because the Federal Reserve Unveils Unlimited QE Amid All-In Effort to Confront 'Severe Coronavirus Disruptions'. I think this is the first time its ever done an unlimited QE and this could help revive the economy. Its gonna be a massive bailout. The Fed will buy unlimited amounts of Treasury bonds, and purchase corporate and municipal debt for the first time, in an historic effort to defend the U.S. economy from 'severe" conoravirus distruptions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Trader_hao
Short on S&P500 but long term buy opportunity afterThe S&P 500 index is a benchmark of American stock market performance, dating back to the 1920s. The index has returned a historic annualized average return of around 10% since its inception through 2019 and thats a good representation of the market. Compared to fixed deposits, yearly returns ranges from 0.5%-2%. While that average number of 10% may sound attractive, timing is everything - get in at a high or out at a relative low and you will not enjoy such returns. Inflation is around 3.15% yearly so the actual returns is only at around 6-7%. That said, its still better than parking your money in the bank and gaining that 0.05% interest. So thats why its important to time the market and enter at the right time. If you had just entered into the stock market 1 month ago, your probably would have lost 30% of your funds that you use to enter.
TVC:SPXShort
by Trader_hao
S&P500 due for new lowsYesterday was a very significant day for the S&P500 (/ES futures), and the associated indexes. Intraday, it was an interesting experience to see the index flat out, in some sort of anticipation, then react with a surge on the surprise news break of a 50 point rate cut. And only to be digested badly with more fear being stoked and more downside that followed to close near the day’s low. While the candlestick pattern shows a bearish follow through, perhaps what is more important is that the relief rally is done and dusted. Previously marked out green box is where the relief rally was expected to end. The technical aspect with that point was multi-fold... with a meeting of the trail stop, and a resistance level, it was also a point to break the downtrend (within a large range). In the intraday 4H chart, it was also the meeting point with the 55EMA, which of course, it had failed. The close of yesterday’s candlestick was also a breakdown out of a wedge. Remember that previously, the S&P500 broke up and out of a rising wedge, only to re-enter the wedge, and follow through to exit the other side. This story was completed within 7 days last week. And with the second breakdown of the wedge, more downside can and should be expected. All these point to a lower low , by middle of next week, as marked out by the 🔴 red circle 🔴. And perhaps even further down towards 2500. BEWARE!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Odds are stacking up for a breakDOWN in S&P500 & friendsPreviously noted that on a particularly critical day, the S&P500 closed below expectations thereby giving heads up of the near term imminent downside. This morning (UTC+8), in the ES1! Hourly chart, we can see a potential double top of the rebound. The next few hours in Asian trading time would be critical, and we expect a path of lower lows and lower highs to follow (guided by the yellow line on the chart). A support level is drawn with an s,era as it serves as the first indication of the floor giving way. Watch it for the minimal downside target drawn previously as the bright red ellipse. This should be validated after breaking the immediate support and a series of Lower Highs, and Lower Lows follow. Technically, the MACD suggests at the double top is likely to hold, as opposed to a breakout above the resistance at 3130. There is a slight bearish divergence which should deliver today.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
S&P500 futures opened the week with a GAP DOWNAs expected with last week’s idea post, the correction phase is underway, and it is rather massive with a Gap Down of -1% to open the week. IF the momentum continues, this is very bad news for the equity markets. The current outcome and probable continued momentum is triggered by the weekend surprise of Northern Italy COVID-19 outbreak and lockdown, as well as South Korea’s escalating infections and deaths, including a national highest alert. These two events were not expected and the two countries have over taken Singapore as the top gunners, after China. On the heels of topping out last week, the technicals for this chart is very bearish, and would likely continue to be so for the rest of the week. In the last year, this is the second Monday Gap Down in the /ES futures Of more than 1%.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
ES / S&P500 to Retrace from virus effects...Technically, the S&P500 (and its corresponding /ES futures) are bearishly divergent iin the MACD in fractal time frames of 1h, 4h, and evenn Daily charts. Shown here is the 4h chart of /ES and it gapped down in Asian opening hours after a lond weekend holiday. This appears to be a Gap and Run scenario, at least at this point of time. This move appears to have been triggered by Apple's warning of missing sales. The retracement is firmed upon breaking down of 3370, a bounce off 3350, and looking for support bout 3290. The DJI and NASDAQ should similarly follow. Heads up...
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
S&P500 and US market ripe for a slide!Last night, after the Fed maintaining rates, together with the seemingly worsening coronavirus outbreak, the S&P500 appears to have all it needs to trigger a down slide. Technicals advocate this bearish outlook as the gap failed to close with a lower high formed, a breakdown of the trendline support, deteriorating MACD, and a OBV crossdown. All these align with the environmental factors of concerns to fuel fear. Other leading indicators have been flashing warning signs since late last week, as described elsewhere. These include Gold, VIX, TLT, DJ Transports, Value Line, etc. All we need now is confirmation by closing below 3240. Note that the red arrow yesterday marks a Put entry. 😉
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader