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TWTR - Selling premium into high IV environmentThis morning I sold 160 strike naked puts for $1.06 credit each. These options have a 30 delta at the time. This is a neutral to bullish strategy. The idea behind this trade is a contrarian play into high implied volatility . The idea being that after such a massive selloff the bears will exhaust soon and we will see a pop in price and volatility will come out of these contracts when that happens.
My defensive strategy will be if TWTR continues to fall and breaches the break even of my short puts I will then convert this trade into a short straddle, selling the 160 calls, which will neutralize the deltas (reduce directional risk), and will also collect premium to further extend my break even and reduce cost-basis.
Technical Analysis of USD/JPY (*Sorry for a very bad audio*)
It is already past midnight morning here 1:00 am so I'm whispering and very lowering my voice so I won't wake up my family and roommates.
And very sorry for the bad background noise, Please use your earphone or headphone. Thank you
In this video or recording I show the significant support and resistance level of USD/JPY from 1D-4hr-2hr-1hr-30min-15min-5min-1min
I also show the Fibonnacci Retracement and Levels and for the potential pullbacks/consolidation.
I show the strength of the trend with my oscillator MACD_Alltimeframes, MACZ_VWAP, DeMarker(14), RSI lower_bar, etc.
And Indicator 3 EMA, Fractals, PSAR, EMA BB bands, TUX and Envelope etc.
I took alot of seminars and courses in or about trading stocks, indices, commodities, forex and derivatives etc. that's why I know alot of shit. I'm also undergrad of Finance and Economics. And planning to take QuantFinance in future for algorithmic and automated trading. Follow me in Instagram, Twitter, Kik, Snapchat,Facebook, Pinterest and Reddiet: llmichaelinzoll
STEEM/Bitcoin Cycles Warm For A Few Days-Big Chill Coming?STEEM/Bitcoin 12 Hour Bars, LOG Scale, 06/19/18, Written 3:35 p.m. EST, by Mike Mansfield
Hi trader friends, STEEM might get hot for a few days but don’t let if fool you. It should then cool off again for at least one to two more legs down before it can likely finish its larger Wave (C) decline. Price is more important than time, but even better when price & time suggests the same thing, as in the case here.
SUMMARY: BOUNCE THEN LOWER, SO LOOK FOR SHORT OPPORTUNITIES AFTER NEXT TWO WAVE 4 BOUNCES.
Currently on Andrews Median Median Line support after a 5 wave down. This should provide a smaller degree Wave 4 a bounce for several days to sell into.
Then, down again. Why?
Cycles, Elliott Wave count, Gann/Andrews/Schiff lines are all still bearish.
CM_Williams indicator has slight bullish divergence, enough to support a small degree Wave 4 bounce.
But, the fact that it made lower lows on the swing before, supports our longer-term bearish view.
Solid red and green arrows show most likely path.
Dashed red and green arrow show less likely path
NO BREAKOUT UP UNTIL:
1. Daily close above the pink dashed horizontal line, which, is the prior Wave (1) low, and would likely invalidate bearish view.
2. Daily close above the red Andrews pitchfork upper channel line.
3. Daily close above the blue dashed Gann 3:1 line, whichever of the three possibilities comes first.
ELLIOTT WAVES, BIG PICTURE:p
Most likely path appears to be larger ABC zigzag or larger ABCDE contracting pattern, but unclear as yet.
I show both, so if you move the chart around you should see larger picture wave counts. We do not yet know if STEEM will boil and take off up after the forecasted (C) wave low or simply have a larger Wave (D) bounce followed by a Wave E) wave low, perhaps into the apex of a contracting pattern. If STEEM does take off with high volume after the Wave (C) low, and moves up in clear non-overlapping 5 wave pattern, then STEEM could have the beginning of a new impulse wave up, sooner rather than later.
CYCLES:
Cycles are about potential general energy shifts, not necessarily exact turning points. Sometimes they invert, sometimes they are perfectly timed with market highs and lows.
Cycles, are meant for general trend guidance.
Blue cycle = general trend thus far. Next trough, September 25, 2018.
Green cycle aligned with the 3 major lows. Next trough, August 26, 2018.
Red cycle tends to catch intermediate highs. Next trough, July 29th. This could be telling if the market gets unusually strong after July 29th. Watch for that date to see if the energy shifts dramatically up.
General guidance: Look for SHORT opportunities into possible lows around the end of July,, end of August, end of September.
NOTE: Do not use cycles alone!
We really like the SteemIt platform and hope it keeps growing! Definitely check out SteemIt as a competitor for Medium.com and eventually, perhaps other social media sites like Facebook and YouTube, since SteemIt integrates with Dtube and “pays” you for content, unfettered by the powers that seek to control free speech and hold some blockchains down until they have their own versions to gain even more power.
BOTTOM LINE:
More cooling off ahead after two Wave 4s of different degrees have their short-term pop ups.
Then down again to complete at least a Wave (C) low, possibly lower, or a Wave (E) apex in a wedge or triangle.
Lows in the end of July, end of August, and/or end of September, 2018.
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Cheers!
Michael Mansfield CIO
Twitter stock is overbought, pullback might be expectedTwitter RSI within the 80 level, stock is way overbought. Might pullback in the short term, so it would not be bad idea to take some profits if your long. In the long term this stock is not done going up. Still remains an attractive stock. Buy the dips.
1 million dollar bullish option bet on twitterSomeone bought 10,000 February 27 calls for $1.18 debit. That's a 1.180.000 dollar bullish bet with out of the money call options. On 8 Feb 2018 twitter will come out with earnings. Better than expected? Chart is looking good in my opinion twitter is breaking-out. Last quarter was the first profitable one, at the moment it looks like the turnaround is working.
YY - Slaughtered after earningsThe fundamentals:
YY is a Chinese company with a popular streaming platform. Below is the summary of their latest earnings report:
YY reported revenue of $518 million, beating analyst estimates for $487.8 million and up 43% in local currency. It reported adjusted earnings of $1.72 per share, beating Wall Street's view of $1.52
With social platforms, it is beneficial to consider active user growth in addition to the top and bottom line. "Its monthly active user base for mobile livestreaming service rose 24% from the year-ago period to more than 77.6 million"
Analysts are optimistic about YY's future, with the majority upgrading to a Buy/Strong buy.
The technicals:
The run up to earnings set expectations far too high, and it is only natural that YY is seeing a massive 10% slump immediately after, even with a beat, similar to NVDA. It should be noted that with this slump, YY has underperformed QQQ YTD. 50&200EMA still indicates that the bullish momentum is there.
The play:
A good entry level is around $108, where the price seemed to settle before the massive run up to $124 right before earnings. Options buyers should wait for IV to settle down more before taking a position.
STEEM/BTC (STEEM token) Cycles, Tigers & Bear$ Oh My!STEEM/BTC (STEEM token) 720 minute/12 hour semi log scale, candlestick wicks removed for wave clarity.
05/17/18, 9:00 PM EST, by Michael Mansfield.
Hi trader friends! Looks like we have more sell offs with this token, if these cycles are correct.
Steem is a token from the blockchain enabled social media site, SteemIt.com, which, is kind of like a cross between Facebook & Medium, add YouTube (via Dtube) and you have a winner. Check out our page there, but not right now.
ELLIOTT WAVES & PATTERNS:
The most likely pattern appears to be larger ABC or ABCDE contracting wedge pattern, that should be heading lower now, in line with the cycles shown at the top of the chart.
I’ve used the shorter ABC Elliott Wave corrective pattern for now. However, if STEEM breaks any of the black horizontal breakout lines up or down, or the GANN 1:1 diagonal resistance line up, or the upper or lower blue wedge diagonal trend-lines, then a new trend trust in the direction of the breakout/breakdown is very likely underway.
If a breakout looks imminent, I'll try to do a new post for that potential event or update this post with a new forecast.
THE DOWN KEY:
The dashed horizontal blue line just below yesterday’s low must be breached for this down wave pattern to continue as forecasted, else, it could be full "Steem" ahead.
CYCLES:
Blue cycle = general trend momentum thus far.
Green cycle aligned with the 3 major prior lows.
Red cycle tends to catch intermediate highs.
There is definitely longer and smaller cycles than shown, but the data history is too limited to determine the larger cycles at this time.
Currently, these three cycles are heading down. Thus, the path of less resistance and the highest probability is lower prices until mid August (10-13th ), when the green cycle is due to bottom, or late September (26th exact date), around the time the longer-term blue cycle is due to trough.
SHORT ACTION: Look for short opportunities now, or wait for buy opportunities around the expected cycle low dates in August or September, mention above.
TRADER TIPS:
Cycles are about potential energy shifts, not always the direction of a perfect sine-wave. Sometimes cycles invert, called a cycle inversion or flip flop, whereby an originally expected cycle top turns out to be a cycle low. This occurs more with short-term cycles, than longer-term ones. Sometimes cycles are amazingly accurate, but don't use them alone. They yet are another confirmation and planning tool to tilt the odds in a trader’s favor.
Case in point: Years ago when I was a commodity broker, (can’t tell you when, but before I became a CTA), gold and silver had an almost perfect 7 week cycle, low to low. They both went up 4 weeks, then down 3 weeks. This went on for around 9 months. I was able to exit virtually all of my many clients out of the metals market at a 2-3 day double/triple top on the days surrounding the 4 week high. This particular "time & price area" occured after 5 Waves up in Elliott Wave terms, it was also around the time for a seasonal top for gold, and gold hit a Gann or Andrews line and held.
After selling out everyone that would listen to me, which was 90%+ of my clients, guess what happened. Gold and silver then crashed 30%! How long did the crash take? You guessed it, three weeks! The 3 week cycle low came right on time! After that, the cycles changed and were less consistent, so I moved on to other markets.
THREE MORE CYCLE TIPS:
Gold has a very consistent cycle of 8 to 8.6 years, top to top.
Commodities tend to have more consistent cycle highs than lows.
Many digital assets (cryptos) trade more like commodities and currencies, than stocks, but have been far more volatility. Still, tops often seem more consistent than lows for many tokens, but not with all tokens.
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Cheers!
Michael Mansfield CIO
Twitter double bottom + fundemetals. Twitter has been getting a lot of firm interest lately. With JP Morgan raising their price target and the CEO of Goldman Sachs tweeting a photo at twitter headquarters, many investors think more institutional money will be funneled into the stock. The rumors of firms acquiring more twitter shares have short sellers scaling back and because of this twitter has begun to rally. On the technical side the stock looks decent with a double bottom in price and exuberant upside during 2017. Investors buying into twitter at the moment are buying off of speculation, as the company only in the last two quarters have achieved profitability. An earnings report beating analysts expectations at the end of 2018 I believe could send the stock into the 40$ range.
After 3 straight years of negative earnings reports twitter has finally started making profit in the last two earnings reports. To me this signals a change of direction for the company changing from acquiring more users to acquiring more advertisers. Exuberance will come back into the stock if Twitter can keep up its profitable earnings reports. The company is relying on profitability NOW in 2018 in order to succeed.
I can see twitter doing what many other companies have done and "claim blockchain". The CEO of Twitter, Jack Dorsey, tweeted that he is a bitcoin bull. Since the CEO of twitter realizes block-chains potential, twitter integrating a blockchain advertising system eliminating middle men is not impossible and I think would help the company achieve profitability. Investors tend to get exuberant when a company "claims blockchain" so this could be good for twitter's stock as well. Of course this is an unlikely prediction but nothing is impossible.
Twitter had a 10% run up on the 17th, a few days before its earnings report, the 25th. The reason the stock is down on earnings day is because Twitter did not beat their earnings last quarter and traders swinging earnings reports sold the stock. Twitter is forming a steady trend line (kudos to DevinBoule55). And i think that even though Twitter did not beat its last earnings report, it is showing profitability and there is many green earnings reports to come.
Overall I am Bullish on Twitter. 28$ is not a bad buy. My price target for the end of 2018 is 40$, That could easily be raised depending on future earnings reports.
Chort it 50% Broke parabolic trend, death cross, double top like scenario will play out for juicy short I predict.
TWTR BEARISH FOR THE MOMENTMight retest 100 resistance line if bounces off 78.6 retracement. If it breaks thru 78.6 then might be pushing passed 61.8 retracements. Please let me know if you think otherwise, always open to new ideas.
Facebook, roots don't grow to the center of the earthHere we can see a very scary drop off a cliff. Bears are clearly in control of this market. The industry XLK is not looking great on the short term. I am bearish Facebook but I'd be wary of those lows , lets see what price does there. ZOOM or SUPPORT
Death Cross Imenent Facebook has been hit pretty hard due to the data leak FUD. Users are questioning weather Facebook deserves their service after their data was leaked. Facebook has not seen this much volume since 2014, and I believe a one to two month correction is imminent. in the past, Facebook has been known to wedge in price after a correction and bounce back to all time highs. A wedge forming at its current price lever would be an ideal bullish scenario. The Facebook FUD seeming temporary also adds to this prediction. If there is no wedge, I believe a death cross is imminent. If we get the death cross, I believe a correction is imminent and Facebook will be down in price for one to two months.
YY - Continuation patternYY is a Chinese video social media platform, most prominently featuring video streaming. It has a massive user base (although many outside of China have never heard of it) with over 300M users and is rapidly growing.
After the most recent earnings report, price of the stock went from $140 to as low as $115 - and as far as I can tell, there was no "fatal" bad news. This dip is a good opportunity to buy in.
Looking at the chart, we can see that YY has been on a long bull run since the start of 2017. With the recent price action, it appears to be forming a flag - which is a continuation pattern. We should see the price test $135-$140 again very soon, and if broken, we may see another strong bull run leading up to the next earnings report (May 8). If it cannot break through the upper bound (or even breaks down), things will get a bit more interesting..
Strategy Shift, Long SNAP in 2018; Stable IPO $20-24 RangeSnapchat is an Advertising Platform that leverages camera hardware using AR and Geo Location in order to create small, bite sized entertainment experiences that become cyclical and habitual for users. That they called themselves a camera company in 2017 was ludicrous and out of line. The new design leans heavily towards this model and focuses more on AR (which they should given that the iPhone X is starting to propagate a paradigm shift in personal connectivity to hardware and environment) to maximize the camera hardware via software.
They have a really great auction system in place and there's a shift internally with empowering the community (finally) that will eventually start to bear fruit if they give these new initiatives proper love and attention. It's a huge pivot, but one that I think they're starting to understand. Being able to let community and companies directly control exposure in order to generate revenue is a total win, especially with the format that Snapchat uses. They're letting companies sponsor promoted stories, which I feel trends towards this new operational structure. They just have to continue to execute well and the stock will start to pop it's way back up.
The advertising side of the business is growing exceedingly well and is positioning itself in the best way possible for Snap to leverage it into the future. User base is also increasing, along with the new Lens Studio program, so overall the story for Snapchat is positive (minus all the people fighting the redesign - as usual). I think an accumulation period in April should be watched for before the next earnings call. We're heading into Spring Break, music festival season, baseball and the Spring/Summer momentum shift. Market conditions remaining positive, next EC could be another good trend upwards.
Twitter $22.50 Call Exp: 2/9/18 - Charts Looking StrongTwitter $22.50 Call Exp: 2/9/18
-Charts looking strong leading up to their earnings release on 2/8/17.
-MACD looking to cross over below 0
-Price currently holding on strong resistance around $22.16
Over the long run snapchat price is heading to 10 dollarI believe snapchat will not be capable of making enough profit to turn the tide and the stock will keep declining further to the 10 dollar region. It's hard to monetize a platform as snapchat, snap users are mostly teens. Advertisers choose instagram instead of snapchat. I don't want to look to far into the future but it's not unthinkable that snapchat will eventually go to zero dollar. Think about what happend to myspace. Social media is a hard sector to compete. I didn't like the company since IPO to be honest.
Snapchat will keep losing money fastI know from my own experience as an online entrepreneur how hard it can be monetizing a platform or website. Look at twitter the stock has been in decline since ipo and only now the turnaround is starting to work out. The same fait is waiting snapchat long term. Yes they do have a lot of users but most are youth and it's very difficult to show ads on a platform like snap. Advertisers are not interested in this. I would not hope on an acquisition by a larger corporation. Facebook doesn't need snap.
I have bought long dated put options and short ones with different strike prices to bet on a decline. In the long term i see snapchat going below 8 dollar per share. Short term i believe the stock price is going to 12 dollar.
Facebook Holding Trend LineFacebook recently tanked on news that the company is remaking their flagship social network to provide a better experience for users. The news came with an outlook for short term reduced user engagement and some negative impact to growth. However, engagement is key for social networks and changes should help boost those numbers in the long term leading to higher ad revenue. FB is currently holding its support line which suggests it could be a good time to make an entry.
Completed a daily bearish pattern TWTR's rally has driven its price to the PRZ of a daily bearish pattern.
Potential pullback towards 20$, 18$
Synereo AMP breaks outSynereo AMP breaks out of descending triangle before news of software update. AMP has been in the dumps for a long time with strong sell pressure following a product launch. It reached all time lows, and now it looks like it's recovering. Risk/reward ration is very good, in my opinion. Synereo is a decent start-up company that's still working. If their product, WildSpark, catches on the price could rise substantially. Long term: it may get overtaken by competitors and be relegated to obscurity.
SNAP or CoverSNAP has hit the BIG AB=CD target @ 13.85, exceeded the harmonic support zone a bit much and is now back at the pattern completion point.
GOOD NEWS = Clear Simple Bullish Divergence is supporting the pattern zone.
BAD NEWS = Time is up. The tolerance of further consolidation should now be limited, as the entire scenario has been "vetted".
Any long positions must realize some immediate progress above $15 for this still to be a worthy opportunity.
Tighten stops, manage aggressively and demand follow through or we will scratch this out @ b/e for a later entry.
Iota Long TrendAfter Iota hit my hard resistance line and tanked, I looked at its long-trend history and noticed a pattern--each peak has been generally followed by a steep decline and then a rise to a new high. Within the coming week or even days I expect another uptrend here. However, the disappointing news about Bitfinex and the movement towards mainstream adaptation of blockchain technology has caused a panic sell and has probably turned people off from Iota. For anyone like me taking a long position on Iota, our best bet is to run wallets on full nodes to help Tangle grow. Additionally, while the Iota team is a brilliant bunch, they are largely lacking in social media outreach and marketing campaigns. While this is beneficial to us now, we must ask ourselves a few questions:
1. Will it be easy for companies or governments adapting Blockchain to switch over to Tangle?
2. Does the additional benefit of Tangle outweigh the time it would take to convert to it?
3. Wouldn't it be better to reach out to Iota about strengthening their marketing and social media outreach?
If we can't answer these questions, then we just look like a bunch of speculators who bought into the newest fad coin. We have to share the good name of the coin, folks.
