SOFT
Cotton Long Trade IdeaCotton has been in a range for a long time. Currently, we see a reversal. The drought in the USA and Asia has significantly influenced the supply side, which is noticeable in the price. Also, seasonally, an upward trend is expected. However, the COT data from the COT report do not confirm the buy signal. Nevertheless, I still anticipate an upward trend if the fundamental situation in the market fully prevails
Bullish Arc forming on Wheat pricesA bullish Arc on the Wheat futures contract suggests a move of at least 100% by 2026.
Trend change is coming. Potential entries and targetsThe COT report is bearish, the seasonal tendency is to the downside. We have a divergence in the 4h chart. So, where do we sell? I think breaking below Thursday's low or formation of lower high would be good entries. 120 has been an important level for Coffee. It has to be tested again and it is our swing target.
8367 - the magic value.This is probably the most important value
one should consider in this position...
The nature of algorithmic trading makes
this level very important for a
wave model analysis.
See the charts below...
Coffee Tactical Low in New Bull CycleI am bullish Coffee since a series of bullish momentum divergences started to develop in February, March and April. As with other commodities, I am convinced that the early 2016 lows were important cyclical lows. I am therefore bullish Coffee long-term. The weakening US Dollar should further support the entire commodities complex.
The latest correction brought the futures back to an important breakout level, which was succesfully tested. The next swing in coffee futures should target 169/170, although it may fade at 160. An interesting trade, nevertheless.
ETF Idea in New York: JO
ETF Idea in London: 3CFL ($-listed, 3x times leverage, risky)
Best,
Cashflow: 3.4% on $SWFTIf ONLY you already have this stock in your portfolio,
AUG16 19 call is only $.65 which is 3.4% (UR) and 4.1% (AR) which is good downside protection.
Next ER is 90 from now.
Plan B: Feb17 17.00 is only $3.20 and you can close it at $2 for more than 5% ROI. (if only you have this stock already in your portfolio.)
Risk: Enter at your own Risk. Investment mindset differs from person to person. Method may not be suitable for your investment objectives.
Disclaimer: I don't provide investment advice, I'm entering the market with my own account.I don't try to accurate in entry, because most of the time I or my client own this stock , so we only look approximate change in trend. It is not necessary you have to do the same.
