Bitcoin Outlook 2024It's been a while since I posted something on TradingView, mostly because there has been nothing going on for months now. However, I believe we are coming into a major pivot point for Bitcoin.
In the past, when Bitcoin consolidates at previous all-time highs, it's a strong sign that we are entering a Bitcoin bull market. But this time, it seems, at least for now, that the tide has turned to the downside.
The main chart above shows the most important macro trendline to follow right now, with multi-year support and two major cycle lows put in on this trendline.
If we take a look at my lay lines and Fib time zones, you can see why I think the 2024 outlook is going to be more downside. A new time cycle will start sometime around December 2024, which matches with the lay lines also.
A very important Time Fib, which I have been using for years, starts this month.
As you can see, it is powerful at predicting pivot points. Unfortunately, last year it failed for the first time in predicting anything, so let's see what happens this month.
As you can see from the model, Bitcoin has failed to close above the last band. This last band shows the last phases of Bitcoin cycles.
MACD BEARISH CROSS 2W
The MACD has crossed bearish on the 2W timeframe five times. One out of the five times it was a false signal, and that was the crash in May 2021 down to 30k. The rest of the time, when this signal fires off, Bitcoin from that candle close on average moves down 63%.
It is important to note that even though we have crossed bearish on the MACD, we need to wait for it to confirm in 10 days as of this post, which would be the close of this current 2W candle.
STOCHASTIC RSI
We have officially gotten a sell signal on the monthly. Two moving averages have closed under the 80 level. In 2021, this again was a false signal; we rallied for months while moving averages kept moving down.
Mayer Multiple Band
Completely broken down from the yellow band. The next band is at 43k.
My indicators
This shot is showing Heikin Candles. As you can see, it's pretty good at calling tops , its not perfect , but considering this is a real-time signal, it is very powerful. This signal will confirm in 27 days, though.
Same shot but using Japanese candles. As you can see, we have two sell signals up here on a monthly timeframe. As soon as I saw the second one, I knew already that the outcome was most likely down.
CME GAP STILL OPEN
Let's not forget that the CME GAP at 20k is still open. That is a 60% drawdown from where we are now, which would take us down to 20k where the CME GAP is, which is in line with the 2W candle MACD bearish cross average drop.
Conclusion
There are so many sell signals right now, and these sell signals are on monthly and 2-week timeframes. We are talking about huge momentum here.
My view is we go down for the rest of the year until December 2024, when rate cuts come in and the bull market starts until September 2025. After that, blood.
Anything is possible. A black swan event would take it down to close the CME GAP most likely. Remember, anyone who was here in March 2020, we dropped 63% in about 20 days.
