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SOL

#SOLUSDT #1D (Bybit) Symmetrical triangle break and retestSolana pulled back to 100EMA regained support where it bounced forming a morning star, resuming bullish would make sense. ⚡️⚡️ #SOL/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: ByBit USDT Signal Type: Regular (Long) Leverage: Isolated (6.0X) Amount: 4.4% Current Price: 150.58 Entry Targets: 1) 149.03 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 171.43 Stop Targets: 1) 137.81 Published By: @Zblaba CRYPTOCAP:SOL BINANCE:SOLUSDT.P #Solana #PoS solana.com Risk/Reward= 1:2.0 Expected Profit= +90.2% Possible Loss= -45.2% Estimated Gaintime= 3-4 weeks
Long
by TradingOn
10/2 Friday will decide your crypto fate.Overview: The AMEX:SPY opened lower than yesterday's close, continuing its bearish trend, but managed to recover and end the day in the green. However, the MACD on both the daily and 4-hour charts shows a bearish divergence, indicating potential weakness ahead. Tesla took a significant hit, dropping by 3.5% and ranking among the day's biggest losers. NASDAQ:QQQ also saw a decline, though less severe, as it isn’t facing the same pressure from all-time highs as other sectors. Tomorrow, the FED will release the latest initial jobless claims data. If claims come in below the expected 220,000, this could indicate an improving labor market, which would make it harder for the FED to aggressively cut interest rates. So, if you want that rate cut, maybe submit that jobless claim! BlackRock ended its 7-day Bitcoin ETF buying streak, selling $13.7 million worth of Bitcoin today. This is roughly half of the largest amount they have sold in one day, which was $38.9 million. BTC TA: W: The situation remains unchanged from yesterday. BINANCE:BTCUSD is still sitting below critical levels that could have shifted the trend to bullish. Geopolitical tensions and a strengthening U.S. job market are likely to keep the weekly candle in the red. D: Wednesday's candle formed a red doji, with both the open and close below the crucial $61.4k weekly level. Early Thursday price action briefly touched this level before pulling back, confirming it as a resistance. The MACD and RSI are still working through the aftermath of the divergence seen during the bull trap, showing no signs of trend reversal. A short-term pullback to the $62.5k-$63k level is possible but more evident on lower timeframes. Neutral. 4h: RSI is in the oversold zone, and the MACD histogram shows the downtrend is losing momentum. It took significantly less volume to push the price lower to $60k, suggesting a potential short-term bullish move toward the BB MA at $62.5k. 1h: London traders triggered a mass sell-off in the last two hours, pushing BTC down 1.46% and rebounding from the $61.4k resistance level. Have you copied these key levels to your chart? The next question: Will $60k hold, or will it break in the next few minutes? Alts Relative to BTC: Major altcoins like SOL, NEAR, and ETH have all broken their lows and are heading toward their early September levels. TAO and FTM, which performed well last week, are not immune, declining by 7%. Only SUI is holding steady for now, but for how long? Bull Case: If Jerome Powell reports on Friday that inflation has cooled, it would confirm a slowing economy and pave the way for further interest rate cuts. This could spark the 6th bull wave, sending crypto prices soaring once again. Bear Case: This week could continue to see prices fall further, potentially marking the end of the 2024 crypto bull run. Fear and Greed Index: The index stands at 36.22, well into the Fear territory. Historically, when the index dips below 40, it's a signal to start buying some blue-chip altcoins, even if you're a day or swing trader. We recommend having a separate account for long-term investments. Remember: Be greedy when others are fearful. Prediction: If we can dodge the bullet of World War III and the market remains unaffected by major macro events, we could see a correction to the $62.5k-$64 k level. Opportunities: Short the last standing king of altcoins - SUI.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
10/1 Bull trap is confirmed. Monthly level $64k didn't hold.Overview: The AMEX:SPY started the day with a large red candle, erasing all of Jerome Powell's optimism from his speech yesterday. Early in the session, before the Federal Reserve even released its report, the market was already sliding, triggered by more-than-expected job openings. Within the first 60 minutes of trading, all of last week's gains vanished. Adding to the downturn, trading volume surged, surpassing yesterday’s levels, signaling increased selling pressure. As is typical, the Nasdaq NASDAQ:QQQ experienced more significant swings, hitting its lowest point of the day, which coincided with the highest point from last Wednesday’s rate cut announcement. This underscores the volatility in the tech sector. All eyes are now on Friday's unemployment rate report, where the market expects a figure of 4.2%. Should the report show lower unemployment driven by improving labor conditions, it may compel the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high. Such a move could further dampen the growth of risky assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. Tuesday marked the first day of negative ETF flows for Bitcoin. Major players like Fidelity, Bitwise, and ARK Invest dumped approximately $250 million worth of BINANCE:BTCUSDT . Meanwhile, BlackRock continued its seven-day buying spree, leaving many to wonder: Do they know something retail investors don't? Or perhaps they aren't as "smart money" as often assumed? Only time will tell if loading up at the 60k level was a wise move. Despite initial hopes, Bitcoin has not yet proven itself as a safe haven asset like gold or Swiss francs. In times of heightened geopolitical tension, such as the recent events in the Middle East, risky assets like Bitcoin and altcoins tend to suffer the most. BTC TA: W: In just two trading days, Bitcoin’s weekly candle turned red, dropping the price below the $64 k level, which coincided with both monthly and weekly resistance. Up until Monday, there was still hope for a potential fifth bull wave if BTC could recover the $64 k level after the initial drop. However, continued selling pressure wiped out any bullish momentum. D: Monday's bearish prediction proved correct, with Bitcoin dropping by 3.98% on Tuesday. This sell-off is significant but not unprecedented, as larger price movements occurred in early August with losses of 5.70% on August 2nd and 7% on August 5th. Are we seeing a repeat of early August? September's first week wasn't particularly bullish either, with prices briefly touching 56.9k. Unfortunately, the current MACD setup looks eerily similar to the lead-up to the August 5th crash. Currently, BTC is hovering around the 61.5k level, which was drawn weeks ago as a key support. 4h: The RSI is now oversold, but the MACD has not yet shown any bullish divergence. There is potential for a short-term recovery to the 63.5k - $64 k level, but sentiment remains cautious. Short-term bullish. 1h: On the 1-hour chart, the RSI has started to rise, moving toward the 50 level, indicating a neutral stance. No clear divergences have formed. Altcoins Relative to BTC: Earlier in the week, altcoins were outperforming Bitcoin, negating any concerns of a bull trap. However, they have since retraced to their respective moving averages without front-running this recent BTC crash. Altcoins are moving in sync with Bitcoin, showing no major divergence. Bull Case: BlackRock could be proven right, continuing to buy at the 60k level. Should Bitcoin dip to the $58-60k range, they may accumulate even more, reversing the bearish sentiment and forcing retail traders to halt their selling. Bear Case: The fifth bullish wave has officially failed, confirming a massive bull trap. If BlackRock's strategy fails, retail investors may see a significant wipeout. Fear and Greed Index: The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 39, officially entering "Fear" territory. Historically, entering the fear zone has led to steep declines: 07/04: The market dropped 6% the next day. 08/04: A 15% drop occurred the following day. 09/03: A 9.25% decline within three days. Prediction: The bull run appears to be invalidated. After three weeks of growth, BTC is now likely to correct down to at least the 61.4k - 59.1k range by the end of this week.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by EvgenCapital
9/30 Market Surge: SP500, Crypto, and Whale AccumulationOverview: The AMEX:SPY closed strongly today, spurred by dovish remarks from Jerome Powell during a press conference. Powell signaled that the economy is cooling and reiterated the Federal Reserve’s commitment to achieving 2% inflation. As a result, 61% of traders now anticipate a 1 basis point rate cut in November, while 39% expect a 2 basis point cut. The AMEX:SPY had been gradually sliding earlier in the day, but Powell’s comments fueled a rally, allowing the index to engulf Friday’s red candle. Trading volume for the SPY ETF more than tripled during the press conference, reaching levels similar to Wednesday, September 18, when the recent rate cut was announced. Bullish. The tech ETF NASDAQ:QQQ didn’t manage to engulf Friday’s candle but still saw a solid rally, accompanied by trading volume that was 10x higher than usual. BlackRock continued its buying spree, acquiring $72.2 million worth of BTC, which is below their usual $118 million purchases. Over the past six days, BlackRock has accumulated nearly half a billion dollars worth of BTC and an additional $100 million of ETH. Is this how whales are dollar-cost averaging into the market? BTC TA: W: BINANCE:BTCUSD saw a sharp sell-off originating from Asia early Monday. Despite this, it remains above the Bollinger Band MA at $62.8k. The point of control for the current bull move is at $63k, with key weekly and daily resistance at $64k. BTC must hold within the $63k-64k range to maintain the bullish trend; failing to do so could signal one of the year’s largest bull traps. D: The recent correction has halted precisely at the point of control, where the most trading activity occurs. However, the RSI remains overbought at 73.4, and the MACD shows bearish histogram divergence. Bearish. 4h: On shorter timeframes, RSI has moved into oversold territory. Additionally, the VWAP oscillator has crossed above the 0 line, signaling short-term bullishness. A rebound to the $64.7k Fibonacci 0.618 level is possible. Bullish in the short term. 1h: Price broke through the weekly and monthly resistance at $64 k but is struggling to maintain this level due to significant selling pressure. Neutral to bearish. Altcoins Relative to BTC: Top altcoins have started pumping again after Monday’s correction. Coins like SUI, APT, and FTM posted gains of more than 7% by early Tuesday. These altcoins have proven that the recent correction was not a bull trap and are leading the market in this cycle. Even if BTC remains range-bound, altcoins could continue to pump, interpreting the situation as a non-bear market scenario. Bull Case: The bull trap has been avoided, and the market has resumed its uptrend. With additional liquidity expected from future rate cuts, the correction is seen as a temporary pullback. The Federal Reserve's dovish stance increases the likelihood of more liquidity flowing into speculative assets like crypto. Bear Case: The market may still be caught in a massive bull trap. Altcoin buyers at these levels could find themselves overexposed if the broader market falters. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 47.89, the index has pulled back from the "Greed" area and is now just below the midpoint of 50, indicating a neutral sentiment in the market. Prediction: If BTC fails to reclaim $64 k , sentiment may shift bearish in the near term. Conversely, reclaiming this level could pave the way for further upside, with a first target of $67k.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by EvgenCapital
9/28 Huge trend reversal. Bullish on crypto. Overview: Both the AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ closed with red candles, yet neither index dropped below the previous day's low. This, coupled with low trading volume, suggests the current price levels may hold for a while. Both indices display bearish divergences on the MACD histogram and lines, signaling potential weakness. The Federal Reserve reported August’s core PCE at 2.7% y-o-y, aligning with expectations and slightly up from July's 2.6%. Speculation surrounds whether rate cuts are fueling inflation, though typically, it takes months for such measures to impact the economy. Next year’s CPI and PPI readings will be crucial. ETF funds have been on a buying spree for seven consecutive days, with September 27th seeing record-high volumes—five times the average. Bitcoin Technical Analysis: W: BINANCE:BTCUSD remains above the Bollinger Bands’ MA, in line with the yearly bull-run volume point of control. After two months of bearish sentiment, signs of a trend reversal are emerging. Resistance is at $67.5k. Bullish. D: BTC broke above $64 k on Thursday and has held above this key level. However, RSI is now at 66.57, approaching overbought territory. 4h: RSI is overbought at 73.28, showing a double peak. MACD’s bearish crossover suggests a pullback to support levels at $65.2k or $64.4k. We expect either a pullback or sideways trading, allowing the MA to catch up. Bearish to neutral. 1h: The lower timeframes indicate BTC is undergoing a correction phase. Neutral. Altcoins Relative to BTC: No major divergences are observed. Unlike BTC, ETH and SOL have yet to reach their previous August 25th highs. Newer alts like SUI, TAO, and NEAR have surpassed their highs, showing strong performance. Bullish Scenario: With BTC holding above GETTEX:64K on the weekly chart, a bullish outlook is more plausible. Global rate cuts may inject liquidity into speculative assets, boosting crypto prices. Bearish Scenario: There’s a risk that the current rally is a bull trap, with a potential sharp reversal. Fear and Greed Index: The index is at 56.67, nearing the “greedy” zone, indicating growing optimism. Prediction: BTC may correct to $64 k before resuming its rally, with the next target being $67k. Opportunities: Bearish: BNB is at monthly resistance, with MACD bearish divergence. NEAR, RNDR, TAO, FTM, and UNI have hit weekly resistance levels, suggesting potential trend reversals. FTM and UNI still haven’t completed their corrections, and MACD divergences may appear over the weekend. Bullish: AR has rebounded from its weekly support level, indicating a strong recovery.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by EvgenCapital
Alikze »» TIA | Pull back to broken structure🔍 Technical analysis: Pull back to broken structure - In the daily time frame, it is moving in a downward channel, which met with demand in the liquidity area. According to the latest analysis presented in the region, there was a demand that grew up to the ceiling of the descending channel. - Currently, it is moving in an ascending channel within the descending channel, which can continue its growth with a pullback to the broken structure. - Therefore, this return in the range of the green box or in the middle of the channel can meet the demand again and continue its growth until the supply area. 💎 In addition, if it faces more selling pressure in the Liquidity Area and moves sharply, it can break the range, in which case the bullish scenario will be invalidated. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« BINANCE:TIAUSDT
Long
by alikze
SOLUSDT Flag Pattern Alert - Potential Breakout Ahead!SOL/USDT is currently forming a flag pattern within a key support and resistance zone. After several days of consolidation, the price action indicates a possible breakout. Watch for a decisive move above the upper boundary of the flag, which could signal a sudden upward momentum. Remember to always set a stop loss to manage risk effectively. SOLUSDT (4h Chart) Technical analysis SOLUSDT (4h Chart) Currently trading at $146 Buy level: Above $146.5 Stop loss: Below $140 TP1: $150 TP2: $155 TP3: $165 TP4: $180 Max Leverage 5x Follow Our Tradingview Account for More Technical Analysis Updates, | Like, Share and Comment Your thoughts
Long
by GreenCryptoTrades
9/25 Altcoins and BTC Await Next MovesOverview: AMEX:SPY displayed a minor decline yesterday, forming a small red candle while remaining near the upper boundary of its current trading range. This pullback is largely attributed to the underperformance of the oil and gas sector, which saw significant declines. Despite this, there are no clear indications of bearish momentum building up at this stage. NASDAQ:QQQ closed with a green candle, successfully surpassing the previous high set on August 22nd. This breakout signals bullish momentum and a positive outlook for the tech-heavy index. BTC TA: W: Bitcoin is holding above the Bollinger Bands' moving average but remains below the critical weekly resistance level of $64 k. This positioning reflects a neutral to slightly bearish outlook. D: The daily chart reveals why the weekly candle only has a wick above $64 k. Unfortunately, Bitcoin failed to maintain its support line and is now trading below it. If further correction occurs, the target is around $60.3k, where the highest volume of trading activity has been observed. 4h: Analyzing the recent bull run from September 6th, the Volume Range Volume Profile (VRVP) point of control aligns closely with the current price level, indicating significant trading activity here. A breakout could lead to either a drop to $43k or a surge to $80k. Keep an eye on the bearish MACD line divergence, which, although present, needs confirmation on the 1-hour timeframe. 1h: The previously observed divergence has dissipated, and the market is now range trading, indicating a neutral outlook. Altcoins Relative to BTC: Most major altcoins peaked 2-3 days ago and are now waiting for Bitcoin’s next move to decide their direction. Bull Case: As long as Bitcoin maintains its support level without breaking down, there's an increased likelihood of a gradual rise. Current market behavior suggests we are in an accumulation phase, which could precede a strong upward movement. Bear Case: We might be experiencing the peak of a bull trap. Economic indicators are not favorable, and there is a risk that large holders (whales) may begin selling off their positions. Fear and Greed Index: The index has dropped slightly to 48.34 from yesterday's 52.83, indicating a slight shift towards fear in the market. Prediction and Opportunities: On weekly and 4-hour charts, there are divergences in major altcoins, presenting potential opportunities. SOL successfully broke through its $144 resistance level, and ETH did the same with its $2,550 support, establishing these as new support levels. AR also confirmed its $21.73 support level. These setups could offer profitable trading opportunities if confirmed by further price action. Correction Notice: In yesterday's analysis, we incorrectly stated that BlackRock had been on the sidelines with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. New data reveals the opposite: BlackRock made significant purchases of $98.9 m and $184 m worth of BTC on consecutive days, along with a $59.3 m purchase of ETH. While Fidelity customers showed reduced interest, with some selling BTC, BlackRock’s aggressive buying suggests divergent strategies among major players. This highlights the complexities of using ETF flows as a metric, as there is no clear way to track "smart money" in the crypto space. It’s intriguing to observe the varying purchase patterns between BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
9/24 Markets on Edge: Is the Bull Run Here to Stay?Overview: It might seem like the markets have been rallying for the last four trading days, following the recent interest rate cut. The AMEX:SPY formed a bullish spinning top candlestick pattern on Friday and Monday, followed by another green candle on Tuesday. We remain in a bullish trend with no clear signs of reversal. However, it's worth noting that we still haven’t reached a new all-time high and haven't posted a solid green candle engulfing previous ones. The AMEX:SPY hasn’t even surpassed the highest trading price recorded last Thursday. Essentially, we're hovering at the market's peak, deciding whether to kick off a new bull cycle or face a potential downturn. NASDAQ:QQQ also closed positively, but the candlestick pattern is similar to SPY. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve reported the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks housing price increases in 20 major U.S. cities. While housing is still appreciating, it’s doing so at a slightly slower pace than anticipated. In July, it rose by 5.9% year-over-year, compared to an expected 6% and the previous reading of 6.5%. The primary driver of home prices is borrowing costs, particularly reflected in mortgage rates. Typically, a 1% increase or decrease in mortgage rates correlates with a 10% change in property values. As interest rates decrease, so do mortgage rates, influencing home prices. Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped from 7.22% in May to 6% in mid-September, translating to a 12.2% increase in housing prices. Therefore, the Case-Shiller Index could see a significant rise, especially if the Fed cuts rates twice more by year-end. The Consumer Confidence Index, distinct from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, also dropped to 98.7 in September, nearing the bottom of its narrow range over the past two years. This is the steepest decline since August 2021, with all five components of the index deteriorating. Consumers’ views on current business conditions and the labor market have turned negative. Additionally, expectations for future labor market conditions, business conditions, and income have all worsened. While this drop is significant, it’s not as severe as during the Dotcom Bubble or the Subprime Mortgage Crisis. Fidelity and Bitwise are slowly dipping their toes into the BTC ETF market, while Grayscale and BlackRock remain on the sidelines. The ETH ETF remains untouched. It’s possible that the recent surge in buying is driven by retail investors. We might need to reconsider the importance of ETF metrics, as they’ve become just another market participant without any apparent insider knowledge. For instance, BlackRock made its largest BTC ETF purchase between February 27th and March 14th when BTC's price ranged from $51K to $73K. On March 12th, they purchased $849 million worth of BTC at a closing price of $71.4K, leaving them in a loss since then. Weekly : This week’s BINANCE:BTCUSD candle is above the Bollinger Band moving average, but it’s still intersecting the $64 k weekly level. If this price holds, it could signal a major bullish trend. For now, it’s still leaning bearish. Daily : Tuesday’s price action pushed us above the weekly $64 k level. The daily candle appears stronger compared to the previous four spinning tops. RSI is approaching overbought territory but hasn’t crossed the 70 mark, and there are no MACD divergences. 4-Hour : The bearish MACD divergence persists, now visible in RSI as well. Three consecutive candles are holding above $64K. Lower timeframes will reveal how many attempts were made to break this level and if previous resistance has turned into support. The price is at the top of the Bollinger Bands. 1-Hour ): On Tuesday, September 24th, at 10 AM, there was a decisive candle indicating an unsuccessful attempt by American bears to break the $62.9K level. The VR VP point of control is precisely at this level, with significant bullish buy orders absorbing the selling pressure. Volume nearly doubled to 1.1 million on Coinbase, compared to an average of 278k. Subsequent candles showed higher volume and a higher low. Once the selling pressure was absorbed, the price began to rise and broke the resistance level. Since the breakout, the price has tested the old resistance level three times but successfully rebounded, closing higher above the Bollinger Band moving average. This breakout was confirmed by a CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) bullish divergence, available on TradingView. It shows the difference between buying and selling pressure in the market, especially on the 1-hour timeframe. During the 10, 11, and 12 AM candles, a higher low was formed compared to the previous price low, but the CVD indicated a lower low. This suggests that even with immense selling pressure, buy orders were absorbing the sell orders, pushing the price higher. Alts Relative to BTC: While major market indices and BTC might appear flat and indecisive, altcoins are experiencing explosive growth. Since the rate cut, the following alts have surged: TAO: +70% SUI: +50% APT: +37% NEAR: +30% RNDR: +30% Alts had ample room for growth as many collapsed faster than BTC. In early September, SUI and NEAR reached their "BTC ETF approval" price levels from January 10th, while APT hit its 2023 bottom price. It still has another 9% to go before reaching its BTC ETF price. Bull Case: BTC holds $64 k, all selling pressure is absorbed, and liquidity floods the market, especially after China joined the rate-cutting spree, reducing their rate from 2.3% to 2.0%. Bear Case: It could all be one big bull trap, with deeper economic issues globally leaving people with less disposable income to gamble on speculative assets. Fear and Greed Index: 52.83. Increasing but still in the neutral zone. There's a notable divergence: check the Fear and Greed Index chart on CoinMarketCap. The last two lows were on August 5th and September 6th, yet BTC posted a higher second low, indicating irrational fear in the market. Keep an eye on this divergence for future reference.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
SOLUSD: Ready to breakout parabolically.Solana just turned bullish on its 1D timeframe (RSI = 58.732, MACD = 1.506, ADX = 22.317) but remains neutral on the 1W (RSI = 51.934, MACD = 6.162, ADX = 25.249) which underlines its undervalued nature. Since the August low, the price has held the 1W MA50, cementing it as Support and appears to be ready for a breakout. This breakout can be a parabolic one, same as the one that emerged on December 21 2020. This was the bullish wave of SOL's historic Channel Up pattern and it came when the 1W RSI rebounded on the pressure zone. This is exactly where the price sits today. Even though that would catapult its market cap and high adoption is needed behind it (along with other fundamental catalysts), technically if those conditions emerge, we can see Solana making a new HH on its Channel Up, TP = 5,000. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:SOLUSDLong
by InvestingScope
2
9/23 Crypto Faces Gloomy October.Overview: The AMEX:SPY closed higher last week, but Thursday’s candlestick pattern resembles a bearish abandoned baby. What’s more concerning is the weekly chart showing a bearish MACD divergence—while the price keeps hitting all-time highs, both the MACD and signal lines are trending lower. Has this divergence played out already, as seen in the first week of August, or is it still ahead of us? You may have noticed that we only have two more rate cuts left for the year. Why not three, with three months remaining? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets only eight times a year. There’s no meeting in October to give time for economic analysis and to avoid overreacting to short-term fluctuations. Conveniently (for bears), September and October are typically weak months for markets. Remember, FTX collapsed in November 2022, bottoming out the crypto market in November-December. The next FOMC rate cut is expected on November 7th, leaving BINANCE:BTCUSD bulls on their own for the next 44 days. However, this cut is not guaranteed. If inflation remains high or increases, the cut could be postponed. Rate cuts are a quantitative easing tool used to support a slowing economy—not one that’s running at full speed. This Friday, the FED will release the PCE index, which could influence their decision. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 55.2% chance of a one-basis-point cut and a 44.8% chance of a two-basis-point cut. In recent letters, we suggested a price increase in late September. Now might be the time to take some profits and wait to see if we can break resistance and establish a new bull trend, or if this is the peak before a downturn. Weekly: BTC closed the week with a strong green candle, slightly above the Bollinger Band Moving Average (BB MA) but still below the highs of late August. The trend remains bearish. Daily: We’re overdue for a correction back to the BB MA, with targets at $61.4k and $60k. The price is hovering around the major resistance level of GETTEX:64K , which is also a key monthly level. The last three days have formed three consecutive dojis, indicating market indecision after 15 days of bullish momentum. Breaking this resistance without first testing the $61.4k support is unlikely. 4-Hour: Weekend price action shows BTC reaching its peak between Thursday and Friday night, pulling back by 2.6% before U.S. bulls prevented further losses. Despite pushing higher on Sunday, Asian bears applied pressure again. Bearish divergence between the price peaks and the MACD-signal line suggests a potential downturn. 1-Hour: At 10:00 a.m. NYC time, BTC posted a big green candle, supported by strong U.S. buying. However, since Monday midnight, the price has been dropping, while the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) line remains green and positive. This indicates that despite strong buying pressure, hidden sell orders are absorbing the demand, suggesting: Absorption by Sellers: Large sell orders are preventing the price from moving up. Distribution Phase: Larger market participants may be offloading positions while smaller traders buy, creating an illusion of demand. Potential Reversal: This could signal a potential reversal if the selling pressure eases. Altcoins Relative to BTC: ETH has outperformed BTC, along with NEAR, TAO, APT, AR, RNDR, and AAVE. SUI, BNB, and FTM showed weaker pumps, while SOL appeared the weakest. Bull Case: If the Fed’s two-basis-point cut doesn’t lead to higher inflation and jobless claims continue to rise, it could boost speculative assets. Other central banks around the world may follow suit, increasing global M2 money supply. Bear Case: Until the next Fed rate cut, there’s little to support BTC’s current price against bearish pressure. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 50.64—neutral sentiment. Overall, the market remains in a delicate balance, while weekly trend is still bearish.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Alikze »» DOT | Ascending channel - 8H🔍 Technical analysis: Ascending channel - 8H - It is moving in an ascending channel in the 8H time frame. - It has been in demand recently after hitting the bottom of the channel again. - According to the current form and structure, this upward movement can touch the targets specified in the chart with the support of the green box range. - In the first step, the first target will be the middle of the 4.68 channel, after which it can continue its growth up to the first supply area. - In addition, in the case of breaking and stabilizing above the middle of the channel, it will have the ability to grow up to the ceiling of the channel and the range of the second supply. 🛑 The most important resistance: ~ 4.68 💎 Alternative scenario: If the green box and the bottom of the channel are broken, the bullish scenario will be invalidated and the correction can continue until the origin of the movement. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« BINANCE:DOTUSDT
Long
by alikze
9/21 SP500 Retraces from ATH; Crypto Market Faces Weekend RisksOverview: The VANTAGE:SP500 closed slightly lower yesterday, printing a red candle after reaching an all-time high. The NASDAQ:QQQ didn’t show much divergence and failed to close above its August 22nd high. ETF flows indicate another day of retail investors buying BINANCE:BTCUSDT , while BlackRock remained inactive. No buying of ETH ETFs either. Weekly: Bitcoin’s price didn’t move much and stayed in the same range on the chart. It continues to hover around the GETTEX:64K weekly resistance level, but so far, has been unable to break above it. Interestingly, this price rejection at GETTEX:64K mirrors a similar pattern observed on August 25th. Unlike the previous rejection where wicks extended above the resistance, this current attempt hasn't even breached the level. With a solid green week behind us, there’s a high probability of a Sunday sell-off as traders might take profits ahead of the weekend. Daily: The daily chart shows a clear rejection from the GETTEX:64K resistance level. If this marks the local top, it will be a lower high compared to August 25th, indicating potential weakness in the bullish trend. The weekend could see some selling pressure as traders lock in gains. 4-Hour: RSI has been in the overbought zone and is now cooling off, but no MACD divergences are indicating a trend reversal at this point. The trend remains upward, but caution is advised. 1-Hour: No visible divergences in either RSI or MACD, suggesting no immediate signs of a trend reversal. Altcoins Relative to BTC: No significant divergences were observed in the altcoin market relative to BTC. However, some coins are showing strong performances, like SUI and APT. Bear case: We've reached a peek, and from now its bear territory. Fear and greed index : 49.76 and started to flatten out the curve. Prediction : Sell off on weekend. Opportunities: TAO broke out of its resistance level. Correction down to $361 level is expected.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
9/20 SP500 Hits New ATH While QQQ Lags Behind by 4.2%Overview: The SP500 finally broke its all-time high (ATH), despite a red candle on Wednesday. Meanwhile, QQQ still has another 4.2% to go before reaching its record. Fidelity and Ark were busy accumulating their average amounts of BTC yesterday, while Grayscale and BlackRock remained on the sidelines. Only a modest $5.2 million went into ETH from BlackRock, suggesting they’re cautiously dollar-cost averaging into their preferred assets. TA Weekly: Congratulations, Bulls! The $61.4k level was successfully breached, but the price faced resistance at the next level of $64k. It’s impressive to see how the price reacts to the weekly levels shown on our charts. Since the rate cut, Bitcoin has gained up to +6.60%, currently holding at +4.30%. Although these are modest numbers for crypto, they’re certainly better than a downturn. The weekly chart shows a wick above the Bollinger Band MA, but the current closing price sits exactly at the BB MA of $62.6k, keeping the trend bearish. Daily: After reaching $63.8k yesterday, BTC is now retracing, likely aiming to establish new support at $61.4k. 4-Hour: RSI is overbought at 71.55 and has already begun to correct, as evidenced by the last three red candles. 1-Hour: MACD shows a bearish divergence. We expect BTC to dip to $61.4k and form a new support level. Altcoins vs. BTC: TAO and SUI are leading the gains, with SUI reaching an all-time high in volume, signaling potential insider buying. ETH is up 3.79%, SOL up 6.3%, and TAO up 10%. Bull Case: The rate cut has boosted risky assets, but we need to ensure this isn't just a short-term rally and that BTC can hold the support level. Bear Case: This could be a temporary pump. If the U.S. economy remains strong, the Fed may be hesitant to implement additional rate cuts. Fear and Greed Index: The index is at 48.06, finally out of the Fear territory. Overall, the market remains cautiously optimistic, but staying vigilant is key.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Alikze »» ALGO | Ascending corner pattern🔍 Technical analysis: Ascending corner pattern - It is moving in a downward channel in the daily time frame. - It was mentioned in the analysis presented in the previous post, after the failure of the supply zone, it will have the ability to continue the trend until the next supply zone. But it faced selling pressure in the first supply area, which led to a correction of 0.23 from the previous wave. -Currently, it is in a corner pattern, which after the break of the channel, a pullback to the roof of the descending channel has been done. - Also, with the support of dynamic trigger, it can lead to escape from density. - Therefore, by leaving the density, it will have the ability to reach the specified goals and also the supply area. 💎 Alternative scenario: In addition, if it faces selling pressure in the area of ​​the high dynamic trigger and does not have a correction in the form of a soft landing, it can continue to correct up to the range of 0.097 with the failure of the low dynamic trigger. 💎 Note: If Fibo 0.23 is not maintained and below the stabilization zone, the bullish scenario will be invalidated and should be reviewed and updated. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« BINANCE:ALGOUSDT
Long
by alikze
9/18 Weak pump on Jerome's underpromise and overdelivery.Overview: Thank you, mighty Lord Jerome, for the pump! The Fed under-promised but over-delivered with a full 2 basis point rate cut. Looking at the 15-minute BINANCE:BTCUSD chart, when the decision was announced, the price spiked by just 1.7% before correcting. However, at 7 a.m. Shanghai time, four hours later, the price started to pump and has now broken the key weekly level of $61.4k. The question is, will the bulls defend this line and establish it as new support by bouncing from it? The first news of a possible September rate cut came out in late June. On June 21st, the Financial Times reported, "Fed on course for two cuts in 2024 starting in September" ( link ). At that time, Bitcoin was still correcting from its $72k peak. Fast forward two weeks, and on July 16th, CNBC reported that traders were pricing in a 100% chance of a September cut ( link ). Interestingly, BTC had reached its bottom four days before this news and then started its second-largest bull run wave. Yesterday, the CME FedWatch Tool spiked to indicate a 65% chance of a 0.50% rate cut, compared to just 10% in early August. From now on, we’ll be giving more weight to this indicator. Last Friday, on 9/13, we predicted, "With this week’s meteoric growth, Monday and Tuesday are expected to trade flat or slightly negative due to profit-taking before the volatility." Between Friday evening and Monday evening, BTC corrected by 4.9%. Technical Analysis: W: We’ve passed the important weekly level of $61.4k and need to either bounce from it or close the week above this level. The BB MA sits at $62.5k, so the trend remains bearish until that level is reached. This overlaps with the liquidation heatmap, which shows $22 million in liquidity built up. Indicators suggest we will reach that level. D: Since yesterday, we’ve confirmed a bullish trend after rebounding from $58.2k. RSI hasn’t hit the overbought level yet, and the MACD has been climbing since the sell-off on September 7th. Unfortunately, the volume hasn’t increased, even with this bullish macro event. Both the spot and futures markets are showing a lack of enthusiasm, with Open Interest falling since Friday’s high. 4h: As we mentioned yesterday, Jerome doesn’t care about bearish divergences. The current pump is defying technical analysis, which reminds us to avoid trading around major events like Fed meetings or earnings reports. 1h: RSI is hitting the overbought region for the second time in 36 hours—not a good sign. Altcoins vs. BTC: Weak reactions from ETH and SOL, but NEAR, SUI, and FTM are rocketing higher. Bull Case: Retail traders might see BTC printing lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish trend. Influencers are already preparing content about the next level being $44k and advising on how to stay solvent in a bear market. Remember the saying: “Be greedy when others are fearful.” Bear Case: The economy may not be doing as well as whales think. If it becomes clear that the rate cuts aren’t working, whales could start dumping, driving the price toward $44k. Fear and Greed Index: We’re at 40.44, officially out of Fear territory. Prediction: Expect the pump to continue for the rest of the week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
9/17 Expectation of two bases points cut increased to 65%. Overview: The VANTAGE:SP500 closed higher despite forming a red daily candle, signaling potential intraday weakness or selling pressure, but the broader trend remains positive since the overall price closed higher than the previous day. This pattern suggests buyers were active, but sellers took control after the market opened, creating a bearish candle even with upward movement. Similarly, the NASDAQ:QQQ didn’t break previous highs but printed a similar candle. While BlackRock and Grayscale stayed on the sidelines, all other major funds loaded up on BINANCE:BTCUSD , pushing the day’s total to $186.8 million, 84% higher than the average BTC ETF volume of $102.3 million. Ethereum ( BINANCE:ETHUSD ) continues to struggle, with Grayscale selling ETH even on today’s green market day. Retail sales rose again, showing that the U.S. economy remains on solid ground, keeping recession fears at bay. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the number of traders expecting a 0.50% rate cut has risen to 65%, compared to 50% at the end of last week and just 10% in early August. Technical Analysis: W: Despite recent gains, BTC remains in bearish territory, trading below the BB MA. Price touched the $61.4k weekly level during the Asian session but retraced. A rate cut could be a positive event, keeping BTC in its current range without major sell-offs. Some altcoins may see 10-20% gains. D: BTC held the $58.4k level and bounced, signaling possible growth after the rate cut. 4h: BTC briefly hit overbought RSI at the $61.4k resistance level but was rejected. MACD shows a bearish divergence, but this may be overshadowed by the upcoming rate cut. 1h: Overbought RSI is cooling off now. Altcoins vs. BTC: Another day of divergence among altcoins. BTC grew by 3.6%, while ETH followed with 2%. SOL printed a doji candle, but NEAR outperformed with a 6.4% gain, bouncing off its support. SUI and TAO saw strong gains of 12.2%. Bull Case: The lack of a large sell-off by whales suggests confidence heading into the rate cut. BTC has been climbing since September 6th, and if the rate cut injects liquidity into the markets, some of that money may flow into risky assets like crypto. A postponement of recession fears could also lead to higher interest rates for longer, but this means more disposable income available for speculative investments. Bear Case: Despite the rate cut, the economy is slowing down, and a 0.50% rate cut represents only a 10% decrease in the current rate. Fear and Greed Index: The index rose slightly to 37.91, reflecting cautious optimism ahead of the rate cut. Prediction: Short-term bullish for BTC, but expect range-bound movement or a drop in October.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital