Solana’s 2024 Cycle vs. 2020: Hidden Divergence Fractal
In this chart, we’re comparing Solana’s 2024 cycle to its 2020 cycle, with a focus on hidden bullish divergences in the RSI and similar bar structures. Both cycles are displaying key similarities in terms of duration, volume, and momentum shifts, which suggest that SOL might be gearing up for another strong rally.
2024 Cycle (Left):
Hidden Bullish Divergence: The current cycle shows a clear hidden bullish divergence in the RSI, which is often a sign of continuation in the prevailing trend, in this case, a long-term uptrend. This divergence is forming over a 273-bar period (~273 days), very similar to what we saw in 2020.
Volume Analysis: The volume during this consolidation phase is 81.725M, suggesting accumulation is happening despite the price consolidating in a range. Compare this to the 2020 cycle’s lower volume during the same period, and it becomes clear that there’s substantial interest in Solana during this phase.
46-bar Correction: The recent 46-bar correction (~46 days) aligns almost perfectly with the 2020 fractal, indicating a possible repeat of the pattern.
2020 Cycle (Right):
Fractal Comparison: The 2020 cycle, also showing a hidden bullish divergence over a 273-day period, led to a significant rally. After a similar 46-bar correction, SOL saw a major move upward, ultimately breaking through resistance levels. The hidden divergence on the RSI was the key signal of the bullish continuation that followed.
Volume: The volume during this phase in 2020 was notably lower than the 2024 cycle, reinforcing the idea that more liquidity and interest is now present, which could amplify the move when the breakout occurs.
Key Takeaways:
Hidden Bullish Divergence: Both cycles have strong hidden bullish divergences, which historically signal continuation. In this case, that would point to a resumption of the uptrend.
Fractal Consistency: The near-identical bar counts and price structures suggest that the 2024 cycle could follow a similar path to 2020. A breakout from this consolidation could take SOL to new highs if the fractal pattern continues to play out.
Volume: The higher volume in 2024 compared to 2020 supports a stronger potential breakout.
Traders should keep an eye on the RSI, volume, and any price action around key support and resistance zones, as Solana may be setting up for a move similar to its explosive 2020 rally.
Solana
Jupiter on course to new ATHs in the near futureThere's many signs that suggest a major trend reversal:
1) Double bottom
2) Previous resistance line acted as support for the previous 2 lows, extremely precisely as well
3) Lower 0.618 St. Deviation Band of the all time VWAP acted as a support again
4) Bullish divergence on volume weighted RSI 4H
5) Price broke through the resistance line and just got retested, this also aligns with the 0.236 Fib extension level
Fundamentals are great as well. Nearly half the volume on Solana comes from the Jupiter aggregator. JUP is one of the most held tokens on the network. The team is very active with updates and fixes. A 30% supply burn is planned.
TP targets are the 1.618 of the Fib extension (which happens to be just above ATH) and $2.
I think JUP has the potential to go much higher, but there's likely to be a pullback if these levels are reached, which would be an opportunity to re-enter.
If we go down from here it remains bullish as long as price doesn't go below the first green zone, if it does I would expect a further drop to the second zone.
ORE Impulsive Spike Above Accumulation ZoneORE is a POW token on Solana that launched in April, which aims to make mining accessible to anyone. The highly experimental concept congested the Solana network so much that mining was shut down after a couple weeks. In August mining started again after enough optimizations were made. I would suggest doing more research by going to their site and twitter.
The price has had very wild fluctuations so far, but has steadied recently. On September 13th the announcement of Regolith Labs was made, which will be the developer studio for ORE. This caused a massive surge, pushing the price above the trading range it's been in for nearly a month.
I think this 50-80 range could be a generational accumulation zone. Long term this could go parabolic. And you can obviously start mining it as well to earn more.
SOLANA has formed a Cup & Handle Pattern on the weekly/daily.SOLANA known for making some incredibly big moves over short periods of time. It is currently forming the handle of a large Cup & Handle formation, which could signal substantial price appreciation over the coming year or so.
Good luck, and always use a stop loss.
Solana shows signs of recovery: what's next?Solana’s (SOL) price nearly broke below its crucial support level of $126. Since early March, this support has prevented a significant drop in price.
However, the cryptocurrency is now showing signs of recovery. Investors are keen to determine if SOL is on the verge of a price rally, especially as technical indicators point to a potential upward movement.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which tracks the inflow and outflow of capital into an asset, is currently showing a notable uptick for Solana. This is a strong sign that the cryptocurrency is seeing consistent buying pressure, which could be a precursor to a price rally. However, despite the uptick, netflows remain negative, indicating that there is still some outflow of capital, which could limit the strength of this momentum.
Solana’s price has been fluctuating between $186 and $126 over the past several weeks. Short-term consolidation is occurring under the $160 level, with the current price of $134 hovering around the local resistance of $137. To maintain upward momentum, SOL needs to break through this local resistance.
Given the strong technical indicators, including the CMF and MACD, it’s likely that Solana will flip this $137 barrier into support and bounce higher. If this happens, the next target for the altcoin is $155, followed by a more critical resistance level of $160. Surpassing $160 could open the door for further price gains.
However, if Solana fails to break above $137, it could fall back to its previous support at $126. This scenario would invalidate the bullish thesis and may lead to prolonged consolidation, trapping the price within a tighter range.
Solana is going to $170. Here's why:In the weekly chart, the SOL price trend shows constant support from the 50% Fibonacci level at $129.87 and the 50 weekly EMA. Currently, the weekly chart reveals a consolidation phase between the 78.60% Fibonacci level at $198 with the bottom support of 50% Fibonacci level.
The lower high formation within the consolidation range reveals a weakness in the bullish momentum. However, the recent possibility of a morning star pattern near the crucial support teases a new bullish cycle.
The DMI indicator in the weekly chart reveals an indecisive trend between the VI lines. Further, a declining trend is visible in the ADX line during the SOL price consolidation phase.
Hence, the momentum is declining, but the trend still needs to be decided. A bullish cycle will reveal a positive alignment in the VI lines, and a potential uptick in the ADX line will help sustain the uptrend.
Using the trend-based Fibonacci level, the SOL price uptrend shows the next resistance at 23.60% at $173. The next resistance lies at the $200 ceiling and the $224 mark.
Meanwhile, a Solana whale recently scooped 34,807 SOL tokens, amounting to $4.52 million. This is part of a larger accumulation strategy, with the whale having withdrawn nearly 206,951 SOL tokens worth $29.3 million.
This puts Solana in the bullish spotlight for the next month.
SOLUSDT Trend continuation tradeSOLUSDT has been ranging between the 140 and 160 levels, but it has recently broken and closed below this range. This indicates a shift in market dynamics. The market might be heading to retest the area where we observed a bullish impulse leg previously. The break below the upward trendline suggests that the price has entered a consolidating phase, which was signaled by the price being above the trendline and showing bullish momentum. Given this context, the market is expected to push a little further down towards a key round number, which could act as a psychological level of support. The target is support level at 120
Solana Consolidates Near SupportSolana has faced mounting pressure throughout September 2024, as broader market dynamics continue to weigh on its performance. Much like other cryptocurrencies, SOL is reflecting the bearish sentiment that has characterized the market, with the price consolidating after a significant decline. This pattern of weakness aligns with broader trends in the crypto space, where macroeconomic factors such as liquidity outflows and general caution among institutional investors are impacting asset prices.
Currently, Solana is trading around $128, slightly above its lower support level of $124, as seen on the Bollinger Bands. The consolidation near this lower band reflects persistent bearish pressure, with SOL hovering between crucial support and resistance zones.
Bollinger Bands and Volatility: Solana is positioned near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating continued downside pressure. With a basis at $129.56 and upper resistance at $135.13, SOL remains in a tight consolidation range. The ATR (Average True Range) at 3.50 suggests moderate volatility, meaning sharp price movements are possible, but the current range-bound trading reflects caution.
Momentum Indicators:
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently at 48.01, indicating neutral momentum. This level implies that while Solana isn't heavily oversold, it doesn't have significant buying momentum either, keeping the market in limbo.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), with the MACD line at -1.66 and the signal line at -1.72, suggests a potential weakening of bearish momentum. Although still in negative territory, the positive histogram reading of 0.06 indicates that selling pressure may be tapering off.
Parabolic SAR and Stochastic Oscillator: The Parabolic SAR sits above the price at $133.03, reinforcing the existing downtrend. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator, with %K at 57.77 and %D at 50.51, shows potential for a short-term upward movement, though it remains below overbought levels, signaling room for price gains.
Short-Term Outlook
Solana appears to be in a consolidation phase, trading between the support at $124 and resistance near $135. If SOL can break above the $135 resistance, it may signal the start of a recovery, particularly if volume and momentum support this move. However, failing to hold above the $127-level SMA could lead to further declines, testing support levels around $122.
Market Sentiment and Broader Trends
Sentiment around Solana remains cautious, particularly after $34.3 million in institutional outflows during August 2024, and this trend is likely to persist unless there are broader positive market shifts. The crypto market as a whole is contending with volatility, driven by global economic uncertainties and liquidity concerns. Solana’s price is particularly vulnerable due to its higher volatility compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, reflecting the more speculative nature of its market position.
In terms of upcoming catalysts, the Solana Breakpoint 2024 event could provide some momentum if positive developments or partnerships are announced. Until then, the market is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode, with key levels to watch being $124 for support and $135 for resistance.
Conclusion
Solana is reflecting broader market uncertainty, consolidating around key technical levels with mixed indicators. The $124-level acts as strong support, and a breakdown below could lead to further downside. Conversely, clearing $135 would be a bullish signal, potentially leading to a recovery. However, given the current sentiment and institutional outflows, traders should remain cautious and be prepared for continued volatility.
SOL buySOLUSDT Long Setup 🚀
Looking for a solid entry around 125.41* (Entry 1) and 123.12(Entry 2) 🔑. Key support levels in place, waiting for a bullish reversal to hit my targets:
- TP1: 127.44 🎯
- TP2: 130.04 📈
- TP3: 137.00 🏆
Stop Loss: 119.17 🔒
This setup focuses on price action, taking advantage of the pullback and targeting potential higher highs. Time to watch the market closely for confirmation! 👀💹
*Risk management is key!* 🛡️
(SOL) solana "resilient"Solana appears to be holding a strong flat pattern throughout the duration of the trending cycle of moving averages with the holding pattern reaching a resolute moment where the unknown may prove to be postively received, or negative if the MACD lines fall beneath the 0 neutral measurement. Solana is not immune to losing in price; it is capable of gaining too though.
Solana: Downward Pressure!We expect the downward momentum to continue into our blue Target Zone (between $85.15 and $30.79) before the same-colored wave (ii) comes to an end. Investors could open long positions within this range, whereby stops could be placed around 1% below the lower edge. With the correction low in place, the coin should finally rally decisively and break through the resistance at $210.03. Should this level be breached earlier, our 33% likely alternative scenario will come into play. This option sees the price in an extended wave alt.(i) in blue.
Massive Move Ahead #SOL's Next Bullish Breakout or Breakdown ? Yello, Paradisers! Could #SOL be on the brink of a major market move? Let's dive into the latest analysis!
💎#SOLUSDT is currently showing signs of a potential bullish continuation from a critical demand zone at $131.46. We've been closely monitoring #SOLANA as it follows a descending channel, and it recently broke above this formation, gaining momentum within this crucial demand area. If the price can maintain this upward momentum, a strong bullish move is highly probable.
💎For this bullish scenario to unfold, #SOL must break above the key resistance level at $134.95. A successful break of this resistance could trigger a significant rally, with the first target set at the internal resistance zone of $147.58.
💎However, caution remains essential! If the momentum falters at the demand zone, we might see a rebound from the lower support area around $127.98–$126.44. A daily close below this support zone would invalidate the bullish outlook and could pave the way for further declines.
Stay sharp, Paradisers! Keep a close eye on #SOLANA's price action as the next move could be a game-changer🥂
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
Long Setup on SOLUSDT / Setup SettingBINANCE:SOLUSDT
COINBASE:SOLUSD
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
👾The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
0.001276
142.00
144.20
147.14
150.3
154.19
🔴SL:
125.42
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilizes below the trigger zone, the setup will be cancelled.
Solana might rebound from the current support levelSolana ( CRYPTOCAP:SOL ) price is currently close to a strong support level. COINBASE:SOLUSD
The $120-$125 support level was tested 7 times and SOL always rebounds.
Will it bounce up this time? I think there's a high chance it does it the macroeconomics this month help.
The numbers we need to pay attention to over the coming days are:
Sept. 6: unemployment rate
Sept. 11: inflation rate
Sept. 12: ECB interest rate decision
Sept. 19: FED interest rate decision
Solana's outperforming, but why is its price crashing?With a 19.14% drop last week, the price for the downtrend continues for Solana this week, with a 5.47% fall last night and breaking below the $130 mark. Further, the recent double-top reversal breaks the neckline at $138 near the 200-day EMA, and the SOL price tests the bottom support zone at $121.
The demand zone at $121 has provided multiple bounce-backs for Solana since the start of 2024. However, the recent double-top reversal warns of a breakdown rally.
Currently, the SOL price is trading at $127 with a Doji intraday candle following the bearish engulfing candle last night. With the long-tail formation, the underlying demand can result in a new bull cycle.
In case of a bearish breakdown, the neck support level is at the $110 low and the $100 psychological mark. However, a broader market impact can result in a new low formation at the $85-$80 demand zone.
On the flip side, based on the Fibonacci levels, a double-bottom reversal from $120 can find resistance at the 23.60% level at $140. A move above $140 can hint at an extended recovery for Solana.
SOLANA The 1W MA50 and the RSI Support calling for $850 at leastAlmost 3 months ago (June 14, see chart below), we published our long-term thesis on Solana (SOLUSD), arguing that it wasn't the time to buy, not until it tested the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line):
As you can see that turned out to be the case as early last month, the price hit the 1W MA50 and rebounded. Last week's correction though puts this thesis in jeopardy and the 1W MA50 needs to hold. If not, we risk our maximum tolerance level on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), if the Bull Cycle is to stay alive. They key however lies on its 1W RSI.
SOL has been on a correction mode since the March 2024 High, in an attempt to technically harmonize the massive rally of 2023. The 1W RSI Double Topped in the same month and as the correction unfolds, it came last week the closes it has been to the Bull Cycle's Buy Zone since December 21 2020. This Zone is where buyers make their presence during Bull Cycles and not Bear Cycle bottoms.
On the previous Cycle, Solana rose by 51250% from the time is started to form the current long-term Fibonacci Channel Up. If we measure the same % growth from the recent Bear Cycle bottom, then we are looking at a peak a little above $4000. That is the most optimistic scenario we can get.
Keep in mind that Solana has already rose by +2500% up to March's High and if it indeed reaches 4k this Cycle, the rise will be less (+1900%) from March's High than it was from December 2022 to March 2024.
A more realistic target for those who don't want to hold for that long and assume higher risk, would be $850.00, which is expected to be at the top of the MMBs.
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SOLANA (SOLUSD) 170% Profit - Price from $154 to $127SOLANA (SOLUSDT)
Short entry at $124 on 27 August, 2024
Profit target 4 reached on 4 Sep, 2024
At 10x lev, the total profit is 170%
The trailing stoploss for this trade is at $145, so if you are in profit, you can sell 50% and hold your short trade by setting the trailing stop loss at $145
Good luck and all the best.
Namaste!