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JSE ALSI Setting itself for upside? Maybe we don't sell in May?!JSE ALSI 40 - Cup and Handle seems to be forming on the ALSI 40, We need to wait for a breakout to the upside. Price >200MA RSI>50 Target 79,178 I prefer banking money when markets go up than down. So this might be the saviour for May with the JSE ALSI! SMC: We have a Sell Side LIquidity area below the new Handle. This is where Smart Money has come and swept through selling (Long traders stop losses) and (Short traders entries). They have bought into these orders, which is pushing the price up. Super bullish signs from the big boys.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
2
4 EXTRAS to add to your Trading Journal TODAYI’m sure you know by now. That every successful trader needs a trading journal. This is an essential tool to track, monitor, evaluate, record, and measure your trading success. However, I’ve come up with 4 EXTRA Journal Items that you can add to your journal that could help improve your trading, win rate and overall performance. We can call these the “Trading Journal Extras.” Let me know if you think any of these will be helpful to add to your journal. EXTRA Journal Item #1: MY EMOTIONS Emotional State When Taking Trades Trading can be an emotional rollercoaster. When you lose, it feels like everything is out to get you. When you win, it can feel like you’ve nailed life in a bag and you can do this for the rest of your life. But what if you actually journaled your emotions? Every time you take a trade or you bank a loss or gain, document it in a section saying “EMOTIONS. This element to your Trading Journal can help you identify patterns in your emotional state that may impact your decision-making abilities in the future. You will also see who you are personally and how you emotionally handle trades. Watch it improve over time. For instance, if you find that you’re more likely to make impulsive trades when you’re feeling anxious or stressed, you can take steps to manage your emotions before taking trades. This can help you make better decisions and minimize the risks of impulsive trades. EXTRA Journal Item #2: MISTAKES LEARNED Mistakes Made and Lessons Learned As a trader, you’re bound to make mistakes, and it’s essential to learn from them. So why not write them down. Incorporate the mistakes you made in your Trading Journal. This way, it can help you avoid making the same errors in the future. For example, if you realize that you lost way more than 2% for a trade. Write down where you went wrong. Did you over capitalise? Did you extend your stop loss? Did you hold on longer than you should (which the costs added up)? Did you follow your strategy and risk management rules? Write down the mistake and you’ll have a better chance of avoiding it in the future. EXTRA Journal Item #3: NEWS REACTION Market Reaction to News Events You won’t find this in my journal. But I know many traders who trade using market fundamentals and news analyses. And if you’re a day trader, Forex trader or a high frequency trader – then this item might be imperative to your trading journal. The market’s reaction to news events can cause major whipsaws, fakeouts and shakeouts. You might find it interesting and educational track how the market behaves before and after a news release. E.g. NFP (Non Farm Payrolls). Unemployment numbers Interest and Inflation rates announcements Quantitative Easing Earnings Reports and so on… For instance, if you notice that the market reacts positively to news about a particular sector or asset, you can make an informed decision to invest in that asset or sector. Similarly, if you notice a trend of negative market reactions to news events, you can use that information to minimize your losses. EXTRA Journal Item #3: TRADING LESSON Trading Lessons and Strategies Finally, as a trader, you must keep learning and growing. If you learnt something about trading, WRITE it down in a journal entry. Adding a section in your Trading Journal called LESSON OF THE DAY. Then record the trading lesson/s and strategies you learnt which can jog back your member and it can help you improve your skills, application and knowledge. The FOUR extra Trading Journal Entries A Trading Journal with these EXTRA items can help you excel as a trader. Thins like emotional state to identify patterns, writing down mistakes to avoid repeating them, tracking market reactions to news events to inform decisions, and recording trading lessons and strategies to continuously learn and improve. So here’s a sum up of the FOUR EXTRAS that you can apply to your journal. MY EMOTIONS Document emotions every time you take a trade or bank a loss/gain MISTAKES LEARNED Write down mistakes made and where you went wrong in your Trading Journal NEWS REACTION Track the market’s behaviour before and after news releases TRADING LESSON Record lessons and strategies learnt that will help with your trading Let me know if this helps and which out of the FOUR you’ll add to your trading journal?
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
XAUUSD 2023 YEARLY STRUCTURE OHLC [SELL SETUP🚨🚨 🚨]Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful. XAUUSD 2023 YEARLY STRUCTURE OHLC Bearish divergence starting from 01 July, 2020 to current market Price in the monthly time frame. Structure for this year is marked in red vertical line (January). Price opened high with April breaking above the open. Currently have price consolidating below the sell zone 2017.870. A strong resistance is also in place 2080.140. Waiting for a TDI cross to confirm the presence of sellers in market . Kindly target the yearly open 1931.722 as first Target after TDI crosses in the monthly time frame. Also find more entries in the lower time frame after this cross. Second take profit will be half of the “railroad tracks” at the open 1871.650 Trade with Caution. Wait for valid entries. Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful. P A T I E N C E + D I S C I P L I N E
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PeanutButter
1
GBPZAR UPDATE Still on the way to R25.00 to the poundThe charts never lie! I posted this trade alert in October 2022 with the massive Falling Wedge on the Weekly. It broke above the R20.35 and it showed the next strong resistance at R25.00. target will be R25.00. I called it a long term analysis but changing it to a MEDIUM term analysis because of how quickly it's accelerated. I guess we can only wait for the target to reach until the next trade alert is given. Poor Sout Africa and those holding rands (Including myself).
Long
by Timonrosso
Richemont shooting up since share distribution to R4,142 Rising Wedge has formed on Daily. Normally you expect the price to break down as it's generally a bearish pattern. However, as the trend is up, the wedge is up and the gap is up - signals strong upside. The price has broken up, and we could get a bit of downside before the next move up. 7>21>200 RSI>70 Target R4,142 FUNDAMENTALS: It seems like since the share distribution 1:10, investors are seeing the share as a valuable one to hold in long term portfolios, which is why they're buying the share up. R3,400 is more attractive than a R340.00 share clearly. We'll have to see how this one plays out
JSE:CFRLong
by Timonrosso
Maximise your trading success with market analysisWhen it comes to trading, one of the most important skills to develop is market analysis. When you know how to read the market and make informed decisions, it can be the difference between spotting high, medium and low probability trades. Here are some ideas to analyse the market and maximise your chance of success. Start with the Main Indices The first step in market analysis is to take a look at the main indices. These indices, such as the JSE ALSI, SP500, Nasdaq, FTSE100, and others, are a good indication of the overall market direction. Once you have seen the indices, you’ll get a sense of how the market is moving as a whole, and what kinds of opportunities might be available. Identify the major Trends Once you’ve looked at the main indices, it’s time to: Identify any market trends (Market environment) If the market is showing a strong uptrend (trend, momentum, moving averages analysis) Then it’s best to ONLY look for longs or buys. On the other hand, if your indicators suggest that the market has confirmed a downtrend, it’s best to look for sells or shorts. Look for Breakouts Sometimes the market doesn’t confirm an up or down trend. If you see the market is moving in a sideways manner, there’s still an opportunity to profit. In this case, it’s a good idea to write down the levels of breakouts you’d expect. If the market breaks up, you’ll expect longs, and if it breaks down, you’ll look for shorts. This way you’ll prepare for both outcomes And you’ll be able to capitalize on whichever direction the market takes. Final Thoughts Market analysis is a critical skill for any trader to master. When you start with the main indices, to identify trends, and looking for breakouts, you’ll be able to make informed decisions about your trades and get a good idea of where they’re more likely to head.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Spar just broke below and it's BAD! Target R103.61Inverse Cup and Handle has formed over the last month for the retail giant. The price yesterday broke below the Brim level. This makes it bearish for downside to come. 200>21>7 RSI<30 Target R103.61 SMC - Above the Handle of the Cup is a Buy Side Liquidity Order Block. This is where Long traders BOUGHT and Short Traders got stopped. Where the BUYING took place with retail traders is where Smart Money came swept the liquidity and sold into it causing strong selling. With the bad rand, the load shedding, the world markets in turmoil - we are seeing selling to come for JSE stocks as of late.
JSE:SPPShort
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI setting itself for downside to 67,985 due to the bad RInverse Cup and Handle has formed on the JSE ALSI 40. We need the price to break below the brim level and all hell will break loose. MA 21>7 RSI < 50 Target 67,985 FUNDAMENTALS. The rand is majorly in trouble, R19.80 to the US Dollar and R23.90 to the pound. Is this because of load shedding. Is this because people are leaving the country due to the inefficiencies of the government. Is this because of the world markets coming down? Or is it a combination of all. Whatever it is, we are seeing downside to come.
JSE:J200Short
by Timonrosso
4 Ways to STOP Impulse TradingHow do I STOP Impulse Trading? Just a reminder. An impulse trader is one who makes quick, irrational decisions to take a trade (long or short) for some form of immediate satisfaction it may bring in the short run. Impulse trading might occasionally work. But it's risky and can damage your trading confidence and psychology in the long run. That’s because when you win, you’ll take more impulse trades that go against your strategy. But then the winning streak will end and the losing streak will come. And that’s where you’ll blow your portfolio eventually. So, to help you overcome impulse trading, I suggest these three solutions: Solution #1: Take a break When you feel the urge to make an impulsive trade, step away from your computer for an hour. Use the time to go cook a meal, go for a walk, or do something else that helps you relax. Then when you’re feeling more relaxed and in tune, you can come back to trade the markets with a refreshed, rational mindset to see what has or is lining up. Solution #2: Reflect on your trading history Review your trading track record. It is your game plan. It shows you the potential of what is to come. And it allows you to look at your past data and trend of your portfolio. Consider the gains and losses you've experienced and remind yourself of why it is super important to stick to your trading strategy. This alone should help you resist impulsive trades. Solution #3: Set specific conditions for impulse trading If you still struggle to control your impulsive trading instincts, then this might be the best idea. Open a separate trading account with disposable funds. This way, you can indulge and take your impulse trades without jeopardizing your primary trading strategy and account. Maybe it’s a R10,000 or even a R50,000 account. Or if you just want to trade for trading sake it, it might be a R5,000 account. Whatever it is. When you feel impulsive, trade using your impulse trading account. And then when it comes to your main account, you’ll be able to follow your specific trading strategy according to your track record. Remember, trading should be approached and seen like running a business, not like playing a slot machine. Keep this in mind, and this should help save your portfolio.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
1
Afrimat showing a strong bounce up to R60.00Cup and Handle formed on Afrimat following the downtrend that's been extended since 2022. We then had a break above the Brim Level showing demand and buying was in play. MAs -Mixed RSI>50 But there are higher lows. Target R60.00 SMC: SSL - Order Block This Sell Side Liquidity order Block is most apparent BELOW the entire formation. We can see sweeping of sells over the last month, and the buying into it has cause the price to rocket. Afrimat is looking strong for upside.
JSE:AFTLong
by Timonrosso
Shoprite showing strong downside to come to R177.11Head and Shoulders has formed on Shoprite and the price has broken below the neckline. 200>21>7 - Bearish RSI<50 Target R177.11 CONCERNS: I don't like shorting strong companies generally especially when the JSE ALSI 40 is on a strong uptrend. Revenue growth is up 17.20% Net income Growth is up 14.70% Average annual Revenue growth (15yr) up 11.08% Net Margin is 3% but ROE is -24.97%. So it's unusual to see downside for this retail giant. But anyways, charts are charts and we have a plan in place.
JSE:SHPShort
by Timonrosso
MONDI looking great on paper to R330.00W Formation is forming clearly on the daily. We need the price to close above and for the price to open above the breakout level. There are mixed signs with indicators (but this is normal during a change in trend) 7>21 - Bullish Price<200 - Bearish We need the price to move above 200MA to ensure upside to come. RSI>50 - Bullish R330.00 SMC: Below the W Formation, we see strong Sell Side Liquidity Order Blocks. This is where Smart Money has swept the selling from dumb money, bought into it and hence the price has pushed up.
JSE:MNPLong
by Timonrosso
Sasol setting itself for great upside to R339.45W Formation is forming on Sasol. We are seeing the downtrend slow down in momentum, and it looks like the price wants to break up and out of the down trend. This is a bit premature for a breakout trader, but it's still good to watch and prepare for. We have other indicators that still show downside (but potentially changing trend) 200<21<7 - Bearish RSI <50 Target R339.45 Wait for breakout first then it's full steam ahead to the upside.
JSE:SOLLong
by Timonrosso
LESSON of the day: Wait for Strong and Confirmed BreakoutsMany people like to predict breakouts. If there is one thing you learn today it's this. Always WAIT for a strong and confirmed breakout. There is a reason why the price hasn't breached the neckline (resistance). And that's because the fight is still on between the bulls and the bears. Now that Glencore has broken down not only has it slanted the Cup and Handle pattern but also. 1. There is a Break- away gap - Bearish. 2. The price is below 200MA - Bearish 3. 7=21MA and looks to cross down. Sure the price can turn up and close the gap, but the risk is too high! So follow your strategy and wait for a confirmed breakout. These lessons are important to learn before they become costly.
JSE:GLN
by Timonrosso
Investec looking strong for upside to R126.66W Formation formed (small but evident). The price has broken above the neckline, showing strong buying and demand. The indicators look good for upside on the peripheral. 7>21 - bullish Price>200MA RSI>50 1st Target R126.66 ABOUT: Investec Limited was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. Investec is a diversified financial services company, offering a range of products and services including asset management, wealth management, and specialist banking. The company operates in three main geographies: South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Australia. Investec has a strong reputation for innovation and has been recognized for its entrepreneurial approach to financial services. In 2020, Investec had a revenue of ZAR 23.3 billion (approximately USD 1.7 billion) and employed over 10,000 people worldwide.
JSE:INLLong
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Mustek is on its way to R19.09 on trackW Formation formed and broke above. We then had some whipsaws (jumps). The volatility of the markets showed that the stop loss needed to be wide and far from the general movements. This is what keeps you from being shaken out. Then other indicators showed upside to come including. 7>21 (Bullish) Price >200 (Green) RSI>50 (Green) The target remains at R19.09. The momentum is picking up nicely. ABOUT THE COMPANY Mustek Limited was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Midrand, South Africa. Mustek is a distributor of computer hardware and software, including PCs, laptops, printers, and peripherals. The company operates in the ICT (Information and Communication Technology) sector and has four main business units: Mustek Limited, Rectron, Mecer, and Mustek Security Technologies. Mustek has operations in South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Mustek Limited is the oldest and largest of the company's business units and is focused on the distribution of IT hardware and software products. Rectron, a subsidiary of Mustek, is a distributor of IT products and solutions to the Southern African market. Mustek has a partnership with Lenovo, a global technology company, to distribute Lenovo's products in South Africa.
JSE:MSTLong
by Timonrosso
Reinet setting itself for great upside to R460Reverse Cup and Handle has formed on the daily chart. The price broke above the brim level, and since then has made higher lows. There are other indicators showing upside to come including. 7>21>200 RSI>50 Target 1 = R460.00 CONCERNS: The price action is very volatile and jumpy. This is not conducive for trending and breakout trading systems as there can be shakeouts and fakeouts. Albeit it being bullish, the risk should remain small 0.5% to 1% for this kind of trade in my books. ABOUT THE COMPANY Reinet is primarily an investment holding company that invests in a diversified portfolio of assets, including listed and unlisted companies, private equity, and real estate. The company's investment strategy is focused on creating long-term value through active management and engagement with portfolio companies. Reinet Investments SE is a Luxembourg-based investment holding company. It was founded in 2008 as a spin-off from the South African tobacco company, Richemont. Reinet is a long-term investor in a diversified portfolio of assets, including listed and unlisted companies, private equity, and real estate. The company has a market capitalization of over R130 billion (as of April 2023). Johann Rupert, the founder of Richemont, is the Chairman of Reinet Investments. The company's portfolio includes significant investments in British American Tobacco (BAT), Pension Corporation, and Miura Holdings. Reinet Investments owns a 2.4% stake in BAT, making it one of the largest shareholders in the tobacco giant. Reinet also owns a significant stake in the South African telecommunications company, MTN Group.
JSE:RNILong
by Timonrosso