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Southafrica

Is the South African Rand forging its own path against the USD?The exotic pair of the U.S. Dollar to South African Rand (USD/ZAR) has not correlated strongly with other USD pairs since this year. In fact, the USD is down 1.3% against the ZAR since the beginning of the year, all the while, the USD index has been super bullish, up 6.1% YTD. While performing better than the GBP, EUR, and other major partners, the USD is still trading just under last November’s high. With the seasonal tendency of the USD to weaken over the Northern hemisphere’s summer months in combination with the strong trend-bucking Rand, Is it looking unlikely that the USD will take out those highs over the coming months? A main reason for the ZAR’s strength is the interest rate hikes emanating from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Just last Thursday the SARB raised rates to 4.75% with a 50 basis point hike, which is the highest single increase South Africa has seen since 2016. It appears that the announcement was already priced in to the USDZAR since there was little volatility that followed. Several more aggressive rate hikes are expected from the SARB with at least another 50 basis point rise over 2022, and 100 basis points over 2023. USDZAR technical perspective On the charts, we can see the pair is floating just below the high created in November 2021. Just this month we've seen a new range created, to which the Fibonacci tool is anchored. There is also an Elder's Force Index (EFI) indicator on the bottom window. This indicator is concerned with the previous day’s opening and closing prices in relation to volume. Overbought and oversold conditions can be ascertained when the indicator moves above or below the zero line. At the time of this writing, the USDZAR is sitting above on the 78.6% retracement level, with the EFI below the zero line. If the price is going to take out last November’s high, then we will need to see a sustained support at this level. Ever the contrarian, the USDZAR may disregard the oversold EFI confluence and continue on its path below the 78.6% level..
by BlackBull_Markets
Mediclinic post pandemic growth??From a technical point of view we have found support, as well as, dynamic support on the 100EMA. We also have a channel that has been respected to the upside. Fundamentally hospitals are catching up on selective surgeries post pandemic. Break of pre-pandemic stock value could see a sustained rally to the upside. This all depends on sentiment, as well as, how well Mediclinic manages its profits. This is a trade opportunity that should see yourself moving SL to entry as quickly as possible. Inflation woes, as well as, possible global recession, could see this trade fall flat on its face.
MLong
by claude2503
Adcorp Holdings LTD The technical are all explained on the chart. There is potential fundamentals to bolster the technical analysis. Adcorp holdings JSE listed www2.staffingindustry.com Adcorp Holdings Ltd. (ADR:JNB), a staffing provider based in Bryanston, South Africa, on Monday reported it expects to report revenue for the fiscal year ended 28 February to be in line with prior-year revenue on a constant currency basis. However, it expects headline earnings per share to increase by at least 139% while earnings per share are expected to increase by 157%. Its outsourcing operations in South Africa focused on exiting unprofitable contracts while its contingent business experienced robust demand in the final months of the fiscal year, offsetting weaker demand in the first months. Its training business has seen a recovery of revenue and earnings. Adcorp did report that annual revenue was negatively affected by the exit from low-margin contract, the July KwaZulu Natal unrest in South Africa, flooding in Australia and the impact of Covid-19 in key markets. The company expects to report earnings for the fiscal year ended 28 February on or around 30 May. Share price and market cap Shares in Adcorp closed up 4.55% on Monday in South Africa to ZAR 575.00 (USD 35.45); they were 28.35% above their 52-week low, according to FT.com. The company had a market cap of ZAR 577.3 million (USD 35.6 million).
JSE:ADRLong
by claude2503
GBPJPY OHLC (SELLS) APRIL MONTHLY STRUCTUREPlease support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.. GBPJPY OHLC Monthly structure In daily timeframe appears to be long-term sells. Possible second leg of “M” pattern Patiently waiting for a TDI CROSS to confirm sells . Also price line and bloodline are both within the Sell pressure zone making this high probability. Runner Tp must be the “OPEN” which is a consolidated Quarter Level for GBPJPY. Bearish divergence from last months high to current market price with wicks indicating rejections. Trade with Caution. Wait for valid entries. Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful. P A T I E N C E + D I S C I P L I N E
Short
by PeanutButter
1
USDZAR end of Q1The rand has held up resiliently against the dollar during this recent patch of geopolitical tension largely due the rise in commodity prices, particularly precious metals. Risk-assets, such as equities and the rand, received strong bids following the Fed rate hike and going forward I don't see the rand depreciating rapidly from further Fed rate hikes as the year progresses. While we're on the topic of interest rates, I believe hikes are priced in and the rand's carry trade appeal is still very strong (SA 10-year yield = 9.785% vs US = 2.388%). SA's trade balance surplus has however slipped from R29 billion in December to R3.55 billion in January and the forecast for February is expected to climb higher to R16.50 billion which is fundamentally rand positive. Let's get techi: The rand has pulled back 50% of its 2H2021 losses and the 50% fibo rate of 14.79 is the next support rate to watch (just a reminder I use a log scale chart and my Fibo retracements are also based on the log scale). A break below 14.79 will open the gates for a move lower towards the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 14.45 and the 23.6% Fibo retracement from the rand's 2020 recovery. I do however expect the rand to give back a bit and for the support at 14.79 to hold some strength. The RSI seems to be losing some downward momentum and the stochastic indicator is currently trading deep in the oversold zone (rand overbought). A pullback towards the 50-day MA of 15.20 and the 200-day MA of 15.05 is looking plausible but I expect the critical resistance rate of 15.15 to hold its ground. A failed break back above 15.15 will leave the window open for further rand strength. A break above 15.15 will however see the rand slip to 15.40 against the dollar. There is also a looming death cross on the pair (50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA) which will be rand positive. To summarise, I see the pair moving into the zone between 14.35 and 14.60 as Q2 progresses.
by GustavFourie96
2