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Southafrica

NASDAQ, PICTURE PERFECTWouldn't it be lovely... Our perfect scenario on Nasdaq Things to consider Contradictory fundamentals - BTC rose to 50k, Tesla has immense holdings in BTC, possibly creating a pump at NY open Gap at 15088 - Once closed all stop's should be beneath entry making this trade risk free as this may create a buyers leg Essentially there are possible HH's that could be created - However the reward scale still leans biased to sell, please read this a few times. It will make you more responsible with positioning responsibly prior to break out. SELL STOP NASDAQ @ 15125.55 SL OPEN TP OPEN R:R - 1:5 POSITION CAREFULLY USE RISK MANAGEMENT
FX:NAS100Short
by rushnft
4
Down the conspiracy theory rabbid hole: Rand to go upUSDZAR: first they will sell their houses and belongings (for rands) Ok well you know what I think about South Africa, what I said about it + reading between the lines + what I say about other places and the world in general. It's simple the price moves because of what people are doing it's not magical. Riots don't magically make the currency implode, it's indirect, and right now people will sell for rands so it should go up at first. Sort of how the yen goes up when japanese sell their us stocks, or goes down before the us stock market goes up. The price moves because of supply & demand not Morgan Stanley saying the economy will contract by 3.5%. Which also means something can be completely wrongly priced because of "technical" details. Spreads are high but this is a large move, spread should be less than 5% of the stop loss. What would be magical would be the government going "no one should go hungry we will help you we are the saviors blablabla usual nonsense" and spending billions to "rebuild" and throw welfare around. Would provide juicy and long term shorts on the rand. In a few weeks. After I made money going long.
Short
by MrRenev
2
Bullish Flag on Purple GroupJSE:PPE had a nice upward rally at the beginning of June followed by a slightly downward consolidation period. Because of these moves, we have seen the formation of a bullish flag pattern. A bullish flag is a continuation pattern, therefore the expectation is that the price will continue upwards once the breakout has happened. So far this morning a breakout has occurred, but I may be inclined to wait until Monday before entering a long position. If you take the length of the "flagpole" into account the target for this trade should be around 190.
JSE:PPELong
by RossLarter
The June CPI, South Africa, And Another Trial In Precious MetalsGold was sitting around the $1825 on Friday, July 16. Silver was over $26, platinum was near the $1140 level, and palladium was around $2700 per ounce. All four of the precious metals that trade on the COMEX and NYMEX divisions of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have been trending higher over the past years. Gold and palladium reached all-time highs over the past year. The June CPI comes in on fire The inflation data is not a validation of “transitory” Passing a bullish baton from one sector to the next South Africa is on fire- Precious metals supplies could decline- Another trial begins this week The next leg up for gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other PGMs could be on the horizon Precious metals tend to rise in inflationary environments as the economic condition erodes money’s purchasing power. The tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus has increased the money supply exponentially over the past year. Rising money supply weighs on fiat currency values. While all four of the precious metals are below their highs for 2021 and over the past years, the path of least resistance for prices on a long-term basis remains higher. When it comes to gold, every substantial price dip has been a buying opportunity over the past two decades. The current environment suggests that it will continue. Moreover, the recent events in South Africa, a leading gold and platinum group metals producer, could put additional upward pressure on prices. The June CPI comes in on fire The June Consumer Price Index rose for the third consecutive month posting a 5.4% increase in June. Excluding food and energy, it was 4.5% higher, the most substantial gain since September 1991. While the Fed and other analysts blamed one-third of the rise on used car and truck prices, any consumer knows prices are rapidly rising. The Fed continues to view the data as “transitory.” The market’s reaction continues to be another indication that the central bank will roll out plans to taper quantitative easing and schedule liftoff from the zero percent short-term Fed Funds rate. However, one factor may make any move by the central bank moot. The inflation data is not a validation of “transitory” The Fed Chairman and the Secretary of the Treasury believe that inflationary pressures are “transitory,” blaming the data on pandemic-inspired bottlenecks in the supply chain. However, with Congress discussing another $3.5 trillion in spending, even if the Fed tightens credit, the government’s stimulus tsunami continues to flood the financial system. The CPI data and rising retail prices are the price tag for the stimulus and tidal wave of central bank liquidity that began over one year ago. Passing a bullish baton from one sector to the next We have seen inflationary pressures rise in markets across all asset classes. The economic condition erodes money’s purchasing power. The stock market has risen to all-time highs. We witnessed parabolic moves in cryptocurrencies earlier this year. While Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many other cryptos halved in value from the April and May highs, they remain far higher than at the end of 2020 and many times the price levels at the 2020 lows. In commodities, gold rose to a record high in August 2020. While the yellow metal corrected, it continues to consolidate at above the $1800 per ounce level at the end of last week. Silver rose to its highest level since 2013 when it probed above the $30 level in February before correcting. Platinum rose to its highest price since 2014 before moving lower. In May, palladium, along with lumber and copper, reached all-time highs. Rhodium, a platinum group metal that only trades in the physical market, reached almost $30,000 per ounce this year. Grain prices rose to eight-year highs earlier this year. Sugar and coffee reached multi-year peaks. The latest sector to move to the highest level in years was energy as the nearby NYMEX crude oil futures contract traded at $76.98 per barrel on July 6, the highest price since 2014. Natural gas moved to $3.822 per MMBtu on July 6, the highest price since late 2018, with ethanol at an over seven-year high and coal prices at the highest price in a decade. The raw materials asset class has been passing the bullish baton from sector to sector in an inflationary relay race over the past year. Bull markets rarely move in a straight line, but the trends remain bullish, reflecting the rising inflationary pressures. South Africa is on fire- Precious metals supplies could decline- Another trial begins this week After another attempt at a rally, precious metals sold off at the end of last week. The prospects for higher interest rates push the US dollar higher, which tends to be bearish for the precious metals. However, gold remained above $1800 per ounce, silver is over the $25.50 level, platinum was at $1100, palladium was around $2.640, and rhodium was at a midpoint of $19,100. At the March 2020 lows, gold found a bottom at $1450.90, silver fell to $11.74, platinum reached $562, and palladium fell to $1449.90 per ounce. Rhodium declined to $2000 per ounce. South Africa remains a leading producer of platinum group metals. 72% of annual platinum supplies come from South Africa, along with 36% of palladium, 82% of rhodium, 81% of ruthenium, and 87% of iridium. Ruthenium and iridium are other platinum group metals that trade in the physical market. While South African gold production has declined over the past year, the country still produced around 99.2 metric tons of gold in 2020. South Africa is currently facing the worst political violence since apartheid ended 27 years ago. Violent riots and looting in the aftermath of the jailing of former President Jacob Zuma are gripping the country. Persistent poverty and the global pandemic’s toll have only exacerbated political violence and upheaval. As South Africa faces the potential for a civil war, precious metals production could suffer over the coming months and perhaps years, creating the PGM shortages and limiting gold output from the mineral-rich nation. Meanwhile, the greener path for energy policy only supports the demand for platinum group metals. As supplies from South Africa may decline, the demand will continue to grow, putting upward pressure on prices. Rising inflation and the South African political landscape support all precious metals prices. Meanwhile, this week, two traders accused of felony-level crimes in the precious metal markets go on trial in Chicago. Federal District Court Judge John Z. Lee will preside over the trial of John Pacillo and Edward Bases. The pair last traded for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Mr. Bases had traded precious metals for Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch since the 1990s, while Mr. Pacillo has an equally long resume. A jury at the most recent Chicago trials of two Deutsche Bank traders, John Vorley and Cedric Chanu, returned guilty verdicts. Both were sentenced to one year in prison. Bases and Pacillo pleaded not guilty to the charges. A jury of their peers will decide their fate this week. More traders, including three from JP Morgan Chase, await their days in court. While the trials and sentences will not impact precious metals prices, trader’s behavior will change as a prison cell, and lifelong branding as a felon is a far cry from the comforts of a trading room. I ran one of the leading precious metals dealing desks in the 1980s and 1990s and know some of those charged, including Mr. Bases. I will save any comments for after the accused have their days in court. The next leg up for gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and other PGMs could be on the horizon Platinum group metals suffer from illiquidity on the futures exchange. The lack of visible stockpiles and the supply versus demand equations in the PGMs does not allow for robust futures or forward markets. Less liquid commodities tend to experience far higher volatility levels. Lumber is one of the least liquid futures markets. The price of wood from the $251.50 level in April 2020 to $1711.20 one year later in May 2021. At the end of last week, the price was below $550. Traders call markets like lumber roach motels as market participants can get into long or short risk positions but getting out when the market moves in the opposite directions can be more than a challenge. Platinum and palladium futures quality as roach motels. Meanwhile, increasing demand for PGMs because of the rise of environmentally friendly energy policy supports their prices. The upheaval in South Africa may only exacerbate upside price action if supplies decline. When it comes to gold, every dip over the past two decades has been a buying opportunity. The quarterly chart highlights the bullish price action in gold and the pattern of higher lows and higher highs that began in 1999 at $252.50 per ounce. Gold may have corrected from the August 2020 $2063 high, but the price action remains in bullish mode from a long-term perspective. Silver is a highly speculative metal that attracts herd behavior when the price begins to trend. In 2020, silver traded in an $18.175 range from low to high. So far in 2021, the trading band has been only $6.61, with silver making a marginally higher high and higher low. When precious metals embark on the next leg to the upside, silver is likely to have a magnetic pull for a herd of buyers. Rising inflation and the political landscape in South Africa are bullish for precious metals. While the US Federal Reserve may pivot to a more hawkish monetary policy stance, government stimulus shows no sign of slowing. It may only be a matter of time before the precious metals sector takes the bullish baton in the inflationary relay race that has been underway since the 2020 bottoms. Use the links below to sign up for free early access to new posts and register for the free Monday Night Strategy Call. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
EURCAD POSSIBLE YEARLY STRUCTURE OLHC (BUYS)🟢⤴️Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.. EURCAD FX:EURCAD POSSIBLE YEARLY STRUCTURE OLHC (BUYS)🟢⤴️ Bullish Divergence spotted from 01 October 2019 to current market price which is also rejecting off the 78.60% fib zone. Market Structure for EURCAD in the monthly time-frame for the yearly structure is OLHC ( Open Low High Close) indicating soon we will be taking LONG TERM BUYS 🟢. Currently waiting for the close of the currently monthly candle to confirm TDI crossing which will indicate the presence of Buyers in Market. TDI Priceline (Green Line) must cross above the Bloodline (Red Line) in the monthly time-frame to confirm the presence of Buyers. 💯 ✅ First Target 🎯 1.50970💰💰 ✅Second Target 🎯 1.55027💰💰 Wait for valid entries. P A T I E N C E + D I S C I P L I N E
Long
by PeanutButter
EURJPY POSSIBLE JULY MONTHLY STRUCTURE OLHC(BUYS)🟢⤴️Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.. EURJPY FX:EURJPY POSSIBLE JULY MONTHLY STRUCTURE OLHC(BUYS)🟢⤴️ EURJPY Monthly structure for the month of July 2021 in the daily time-frame is OLHC ( Buys). Buyers are still not present in market since price in the daily time-frame was unable to close above the open before the 15th of this month price had to consolidate. Hence the delay in the bullish structure forming . Bullish Divergence however has confirmed for price starting from 19th January 2021 to current market price . We patiently waiting for a TDI cross as Priceline is also above our buy pressure zone in The daily time-frame. Wait for a TDI cross ( Priceline must cross above bloodline in the daily to confirm the presence of Buyers in market . 💯Target the July Monthly open In the daily time-frame ✅💰💰💰💰 Wait for valid entries. P A T I E N C E + D I S C I P L I N E
Long
by PeanutButter
EURJPY POSSIBLE YEARLY STRUCTRE OHLC (SELLS ) 2021Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.. EURJPY YEARLY STRUCTURE OHLC (SELLS)🔴⤵️ Bearish Divergence spotted on EURJPY starting from 1st January 2018 which also saw price rejecting below our 23.60% fib zone till current market price . Market structure for EURJPY in the monthly time-frame for the yearly structure is OHLC( Open High Low Close) indicating we will soon be selling for long term. Currently waiting for the close of the current Monthly candle to close with a TDI crossing to confirm the presence of sellers in market. I Strongly believe sellers will dominate more from next month August, we definitely will see a small short term bullish push which should close at least half way of July’s monthly candle before it begins to tank down . Regardless we are in for some good profitable long term sells. 💰💰💰Hope you ready ? 💯🔥 Sells will confirm the minute the current monthly candle closes with a TDI crossing also below the bloodline. A perfect target for TDI will be when the Priceline (Green Line) touches the Liquid 50 Line (Yellow Line) . You can also target the monthly open as take profit 💰💰💰 for your long term sell runner(s) ✅which is the open of January 2012. Wait for valid entries. P A T I E N C E + D I S C I P L I N E
Short
by PeanutButter
As predicted, things are getting worse in South Africa, part 2Guess it's time to follow up on my previous idea: Body count is going up. Some officers (including high up) going full racist, for example one guy was saying the indians choose their camp (whites). In a single raid over 1 million rounds were stolen, enough for a whole company to go to war (or capture more weapons). SANDF getting chased by civilians, bah this happens in France too no big deal, and in Turkey soldiers are used as scapegoats then beat up by mobs. Russia which is like the only country in the world not completely melted brain, recommended (strongly) to its nationals to stock up on food and water and lock themselves up at home during the pogroms. They didn't say bullets it seems, weird. I know that some guys have some tigers, I wonder how useful that is? Sorry but I have to mention this: only one store in Watercrest Mall was untouched, the rest was destroyed. The untouched store waaaaas .... THE BOOK STORE! 🤣🤣🤣 "We have no access to education we are 200 elo because of our teammates and the unfair game patches". (Some) Supply lines are destroyed. Queues of thousands to get in a store, never saw this before are these people for real? Factories burned down some leaking pollution. Boers going to have full stomachs and urban citizens going to go hungry let's go humanitarian bla bla bla would you like to make a useless donation to a useless NGO to feel better about yourself? Told for 4 years people in the west cities sucked and either get out or stock on food and I wrote about SA too. I did my part, more useful than NGOS imo. At least I help out smart people the rest is helpless it will never make a difference. I don't know Africa below the equator my guess is Zuma which was just sent to jail for looting is a bantu zulu or something and Cyril something something is the same or almost the same? They're both from the ANC which is nothing more than (my guess, don't know anything under the equator). An ethnic map and political result maps are the same, half east is zulu/bantu/black and all green (votes ANC), the west half is yellow and votes Democratic alliance, as if no one cared for democratie and everyone voted for their tribe. The 3rd party is Extreme Flip Floppers, the racists. The far east is where the riots are worse. The west does have some green spots it's not homogeneous. So same story as usual. With the president a western puppet following the diversity ideology. I've heard of whites indians and muslims on one side defending their stuff (and killing), bantus on the other. Just describing it as it is not saying it's good or bad. I'm not sure if the ANC is itself divided by ethnicity and tribe or not. Another smaller party is significant in the most eastern problematic region that is the Inkatha Freedom Party I wonder if they are separatists? Jacob Zuma’s son urges South Africa rioters to ‘protest & loot responsibly’. I know a lot of these guys hate migrants and indians (and muslims) are migrants. Idi is popular once again (he kicked out the indians). Doesn't seem they hate whites that much I mean they were there before most of these guys afaik, whites were here since emm 1488 (not a joke). "evidence linking ANC branches in KwaZulu-Natal to the violent protests" www.timeslive.co.za I wasn't around back then (I didn't know about investing I mean, didn't even know it existed) but I heard people invested in some countries like for example Ivory Coast, especially sugar there, and ignored the ethnic risk and when it went boom they lost everything, don't be that guy. Maybe they use this as an excuse to disarm the population. If that happens genocide will be just around the corner. Then prob gets recycled. Half of Rwanda eco growth comes from Paul Kagame pulling a sad face when he meets a western leader, and them sending money as a result. GDP growth is something ridiculous like 10%. The Hutu breed like rabbits, so the Tutsi convinced them they were gods to rule them, the white man ruined that, now they use guilt to continue their rule GG. Maybe whites pay the price in blood then use guilt to once again rule the majority. The country would become rich again, great investment. I'm too old to be an idealist, I am a realist. The idealists are the ones with blood on their hands. Too dumb to not be in denial about it. Stupid people are worst than evil smart people since those ones refrain from pushing it too far out of fear of being stopped or punished. I don't think the russians used the word pogrom although they don't care about euphemisms, here is the source. Also Russians are taking over Africa militarly and don't believe in diversity and the west can't really do anything about it. Maybe Russia will intervene? Let a few russians get killed and ... With the collapsing west lighting candles, holding hands and singing songs as well as making diversity murals. I do not think NATO would win World War 3. The world really needs ground air missiles, all sorts of nuke countermeasures plan A plan B all the way to Z. Not having serious large scale measures and just counting on love and friendship is such terrible risk management. russianembassyza.mid.ru Of course I can't give any sort of timing. In the immediate term I hope this ends up shaking markets a bit.
by MrRenev
9
USD/ZAR UPDATED ANALYSISYou can see if we put both the DXY and USD/ZAR next to each other how well they correlate at the moment. Both charts have retraced respectively giving a strong narrative that if the DXY respects the trend and moves higher, that USD/ZAR will follow suite. The South African economy has taken a huge knock this week due to extended Covid restrictions but more importantly, the looting of major retail enterprises. Yesterday South Africa released it's Retail Sales YY* results which came in at 15.8% which, when compared to the prior results of 95.7%, is insane. If you piece all of this information together then it is reasonable to assume that the Rand will continue to weaken against the Dollar for the foreseeable future.
Long
by skypointmarkets