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JSE ALSI waiting for a direction to break out of The JSE ALSI 40 continues to move in some form of Symmetrical Triangle. And it's been doing so since September 2023. Right now the price is below the 200MA which does indicate a BEAR market. However, when you see the 200MA, it's been moving sideways, which does not give the indicator it's reliable signal for a trending motion. And with the price near the apex, means a breakout is imminent. If we look at the international markets like the Dow Jones and S&P500, they've hit all time highs. And as you know, the international markets are leading indicators which could mean we could see JSE ALSI breaking up and also heading to all time highs. The first target will be set to 73,637 and the next is the moon. So yes, my bias is bullish in Q1 - 12024
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI 40 poised for upside this year - Target 84,298TECHNICALS Symmetrical Triangle has formed on the daily since I would say 10 August 2023. There are good technical signs that a breakout to the upside is imminent. First we have a long term upward range from 2020 which the price continues to bounce off the uptrend. Second we have a trending 200MA which the price still needs to break above as it's been in a pathetic sideways range for the last year. JSE traders know what I'm talking about. But once we get that breakout, we could see a target of 84,289 FUNDAMENTALS Index Rebalancing and Convergence There's a note on the JSE’s planned index harmonization which could affect the ALSI and Swix indices, aiming for a convergence by March 2024. INDEX PERFORMANCE This adjustment might influence the index's composition and performance, potentially affecting investor sentiment positively depending on the specifics of the harmonization. This can increase investor confidence in the index as a benchmark, potentially leading to more investment in products tied to the index, such as ETFs and mutual funds. BALANCE EXPOSURE! Also there could be better balance exposure across stocks or sectors, reducing volatility and appealing to risk-averse investors.
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
SAPPI looking shap! Target potential to R56.76Symmetrical Triangle seems to have formed on Sappi. Now on the contrary of a Symmetrical Triangle being a Continuation pattern, it is possible for a reversal to take place in this instance. We have the converging of the trendlines where the price has reached an apex. Strong buy divergences and price action to the up. It's a bit premature to BUY just yet but I anticipate a breakour to the upside. Then full steam ahead. Other peripheral indicators confirm upside: 7>21>200 RSI>50 (Buy divergence) Target R56.76
JSE:SAPLong
by Timonrosso
Tsogo Sun - WHich way to break out? R1.94 or R27.69?The daily is very noisy. Even the weekly is crazy. So I had to really break it down and look at the monthly chart. And what we can see is the noise being reduced to a RECTANGLE. Now right now the price action is down. Despite the breakin uptrend. Despite the higher lows. The current momentum is down. And all we can do is wait for a breakout. Which way to Break? Break down - R1.94 Break up - R27.69 I am going to remain neutral and this play is a MAJOR patience game that can take YEARS to play out. I don't like what I'm seeing with the fundamentals: High Level of Debt: Tsogo Sun has been reported to have a high level of debt. A substantial debt burden can be a concern for investors as it may affect the company's financial flexibility and profitability due to the interest and repayments required. Unstable Dividend Track Record: The company has had an unstable dividend track record, which may lead to concerns about the consistency of returns to shareholders. Valuation Concerns: Even though the stock has been trading below what is estimated as its fair value, investors may still have concerns about the future growth prospects and other intrinsic valuation metrics. Performance Relative to Industry: Tsogo Sun has underperformed the ZA Hospitality industry, which returned 5.1% over the past year, indicating that it may not be keeping pace with its industry peers.
JSE:TSG
by Timonrosso
1
UPDATE: Vukile Properties set for upside in 2024Inv Head and Shoulders formed on Vukile as of my last update. The progress has been slow but sure. It broke above the neckline, stayed above the uptrend and 200MA. So the next target I'm raising even higher. But this time to R17.59 FUNDAMENTALS: Positive Earnings Release: Vukile Properties released their first half 2024 earnings showing an increase in earnings per share (EPS) compared to the first half of 2023. An increase in EPS is typically a strong indicator of a company's profitability and can attract investors​​. Dividend Guidance Revision: The company revised its dividend guidance for the year ending 31 March 2024, which may have been perceived positively by the market, reflecting a strong future outlook​​. Management and Board Changes: There have been management changes announced in recent months, which might have been received well by investors if they believe these changes will lead to better performance or a more positive strategic direction for the company​​. Portfolio Value and Performance: ' Vukile's real estate portfolio value has been significant, and the performance of the stock has been exceeding both the industry and the market over the past year, which can boost investor confidenc
JSE:VKELong
by Timonrosso
Calgro settings itself for super upside in 2024W Formation has formed on Calgro M3. We haven't had our breakout yet but it's most definitely forming higher lows. ANd it's above the 200MA with a predominant uptrend. This is all great news for potential upside. We'll set the first target at R6.03 FUNDAMENTALS: Calgro M3, a South African property development company, has been experiencing a rally in its stock for several reasons: Impressive Financial Performance: Calgro M3 reported strong financial results for the fiscal year ending in February 2023. This included a significant increase in earnings per share and overall revenue, demonstrating the company's ability to generate sustainable profits and manage costs effectively​​. Robust Revenue Pipeline: The company has a solid revenue pipeline in residential property development, with a forecast of R15.9 billion. This includes over 22,000 opportunities and the inclusion of a major development project, Frankenwald, which is expected to add at least 20,000 opportunities​​. Successful Residential Developments: Calgro M3 has been successful in its residential property development segment, with a large number of completed and under-construction opportunities. This success is a key driver of the company's revenue and growth prospects​​.
JSE:CGRLong
by Timonrosso
Hulamin poised for great upside in 2024Cup and handle has formed on Hulamin since 10 May 2023. With these Penny STocks and less liquid markets, they can take a long time to form patterns and formations. But when they breakout, they can rocket in the direction of the breakout. I like that it's restested the support and brim level, and is showing that the buying is accumulating. And that that price is above the 200MA. These are always risky markets to dabble into, but they're fun nevertheless. Target R3.91 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: Growth in the Can Market: Hulamin has been focusing on expanding its presence in the lucrative can market. This strategic move likely increased investor confidence in the company's growth prospects and operational focus. Aluminium Prices: The price of aluminium has been testing a 13-year high, which positively impacts Hulamin's valuation and profitability, as it is an aluminium products group. Stock Movement and Company Talks: The company's stock has seen significant movement, with its value almost doubling in a week. This surge is partly due to Hulamin being in talks that may affect its stock, though details of these discussions were not disclosed.
JSE:HLMLong
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: MTN on the way to the R60.65 level :(Diamond Formation formed on MTN. This is a broadening pattern that could have broke either way. The fact that it broke down and almost retested the 200MA showed the momentum was down and bearish. Now it's on a one way trip down. First to R90.00 at next support If it breaks below we could very well see our main target at R60.65 FUNDAMENTALS MTN Group, a big telecom company in Africa, is facing a serious lawsuit in the US. They are accused of doing business with a group linked to terrorism, which could have helped fund terrorist activities. This is a big deal because it's the first time a company might be held responsible in the US for helping a terrorist group. Because of these legal issues, investors might be worried about MTN's future. This concern can lead to a drop in MTN's stock price, as investors might sell their shares fearing potential financial losses or damage to the company's reputation.
JSE:MTNShort
by Timonrosso
MTN Black Diamond to take the price to R60.65?Diamond Formation formed over ther last two years with MTN. Now initially, you wait for a breakout before you trade a broadening pattern like the diamond. And then, we saw it break below - showing the momentum and supply was higher to the downside. I sent this analysis out and called it a short investment. What that means is that this type of trade is a LONG hold and it will take time to hit the target. Luckily with CFDs you'll earn interest on the trade. And as price is staying below the 200MA, the target is still on to R60.65 Thoughts?
JSE:MTNShort
by Timonrosso
Poor vodacom - Target hit at R92.00 but very unexpectedlyUm... Ok I did not expect that. Look Vodacom has been going through a very tough down channel since April 2022. The high was around R160.00. The downtrend then subsided but started moving in a very eloquent channel with highs and lows. Well we expected the channel to hit the high and drop down to R92.00. But not in one candle suddenly. I don't even know if there was enough liquidity to get most people out, but here we are. So the channel will continue until it breaks. And Range Bounded traders will be thrilled to continue profiting going long and short. Are you?
JSE:VODShort
by Timonrosso
Hyprop ready to head HIGHER to R36.00Cup and Handle has officially formed on the daily chart. This was confirmed by the bulls that there is upside to come when the price stayed above the 200MA. Now once we get our breakout, we'll be more inclined for further upside and demand. Target R36.02 ABOUT THE COMPANY: Foundation and Listing: Hyprop Investments Limited was founded in 1987 and is listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) under the ticker HYP. Market Capitalization: As of January 2024, Hyprop has a market capitalization of approximately R10.9 billion. Primary Focus: The company is a retail-focused Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), owning and managing a substantial portfolio of mixed-use precincts. Portfolio Value: Its portfolio is valued at around R40 billion, underpinning dominant retail centers in key economic nodes. International Presence: Beyond South Africa, Hyprop has a significant presence in Eastern Europe. Diverse Property Portfolio: In South Africa, Hyprop's portfolio includes 12 prime shopping centers. The company also has exposure to malls in sub-Saharan Africa through Atterbury Africa.
JSE:HYPLong
by Timonrosso
Oh no Mr Market not this shenanigan again! We've started off the year of 2024 the same way we started in November 2022. In a sideways range with a high of 75,000 and a low of 63,000. This is very disappointing and tough for position and swing traders who mainly focus on the JSE stocks. What can we do this year to help ride up and down the range? I can give some ideas but it's up to your trading personality and risk profile how to go about it. Some ideas are. 1. Lower your risk and reward price expectations. 2. Look into intraday trading the JSE ALSI 40 3. Make use of the trailing stop loss more 4. Risk less per trade when the market is really just volatile 5. Diversify into other markets and bite the bullets So, analysis wise I guess the JSE will want to go back to 75,000. Any trader can see a rectangle and guess the range movement for the year. What are your thoughts? What we really need is a breakthrough and a breakout.
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
Tigerbrands exausted - Foot off the neck - Coming down to R153After an insane run up and beautiful trade, Tigerbrands has now reached it's peak and has formed an M Formation. We thought the price was going to close below and open below th neckline. Instead there was a largeish exaustion gap. An Exaustion Gap is a gap in the price where no activity took place due to the fact that the current trend (upside) is exausted and now the supply and selling is taking over. So the first target will be down to R153.09
JSE:TBSShort
by Timonrosso
Harmony not looking so harmonious in 2024 M Formation has been forming since November 2023 where the high was R120. There are lower highs forming and it looks like the price is about to crash down. This is unusual as gold stocks tend to be a hedge when the markets crash. But I guess with the Dollar strengthening and with America picking up in 2024, there are some disadvantages for the gold market globally. If the price breaks the neckline, we could see the target at R82.29. Thoughts?
JSE:HARShort
by Timonrosso
1
EURGBP [OLHC] MONTHLY BUY SETUPMonthly Structure Analysis for EURGBP OLHC (Buy Setup) Examining the initial monthly structure for the year 2024 of the EURGBP currency pair in the daily timeframe reveals a distinctive OLHC pattern (Open, Low, High, Close), indicating an optimal Buy Structure. Currently, we are anticipating a TDI cross ❎ to validate the presence of buyers in the market. Upon confirmation, the target points are outlined as follows: 1st 🥇 Target: 0.86165 2nd 🥈 Target: 0.86351 3rd 🥉 Target: 0.86501 4th Target 🎯: 0.86651, coinciding with the opening level for the ongoing month of January 2024. Exercise patience when executing trades and implement sound risk management strategies. If you find this analysis beneficial, please show your support by liking 👍, sharing, and leaving a comment.
Long
by ezeepips
3
#TOP40 South Africa 40 finds support@ trendline + Horizontal supNote how the trendline that has formed has had its 3rd successive touch with a reversal candlestick. Each turn off support has created strong upside price action the following day. The level where the top40 found support is even more significant as the 67500 has been a massive change of polarity on many occasions through the second half of 2023. The bulls have their work cut out for them as the failure to hold price above the 200dma was not a positive development. However in the short term, i think we can retest 69300 and maybe 70 000 but ultimately a close and successive days of trading above 70k is needed for bulls to sustain momentum and drive the market higher.
JSE:J200Long
by MarcoOlevano
AVENG Cup and Handle and up it goes to R11.28Cup and Handle has formed on Aveng after a long term downtrend. The price has broken above the brim level and so momentum is leering up. Price = 200MA RSI>50 Target R11.28 ABOUT THE COMPANY Aveng Group is a diversified infrastructure and engineering company based in South Africa. Diversified Operations: ' Aveng Group is involved in various sectors, including construction, engineering, mining, manufacturing, and steel. Establishment: The company has a long history, dating back to its establishment in 1944. International Presence: While based in South Africa, Aveng has expanded its operations internationally, with projects and subsidiaries in other African countries and beyond. Construction Expertise: Aveng is known for its expertise in construction and infrastructure development, undertaking projects such as roads, bridges, and buildings.
JSE:AEGLong
by Timonrosso
Motus Triple Bottom wait for the break!Triple Bottom seems to be forming on Motus. The price has broken above the downtrend, showing the bulls are trying to get into control. Right now there is a consolidation period where we're seeing a higher bottom and the price will need to break above the neckline of the Triple Bottom. Another clear sign of consolidation is the fight between the MAs... Hence this is a waiting game. But once the price breaks above the neckline, the first target will be easily to R146.52.
JSE:MTHLong
by Timonrosso
2
UPDATE: Naspers target to R1,591 on the way - WARNINGWe'll get into what happened to Naspers in a bit, or just scroll down... But I need to mention something, that not many people know. About two years ago, I stopped trading Naspers. It was so rigged and manipulated between many factors and alogrithms. 1. First with TenCent, then with Prosus. Then with prop funds who just make money with the incremental moves throwing in 1s and manipulating the market on only technicals. Well, we sent out a short potential analysis as we expected the price to drop. A Strong M Pattern formed. Broke down. Next few days gapped up and almost reached the stop loss. Today the price dropped over 17%. And now it looks like there's further downside to come. But don't take my word for it because Naspers is probably one of the most difficult markets to probability predict. Let's get into the basics of the fundamentals that took place today: WHAT HAPPENED TO NASPERS AND PROSUS? #1: Naspers and Prosus, the global internet and media companies, experienced a significant plunge in their share prices on Friday due to new Chinese tech regulations impacting Tencent. #2: Beijing unveiled measures aimed at curbing spending in online games, affecting major players in the tech sector, including Tencent. #3: The share prices of Naspers and Prosus fell sharply by 17% and 14%. #4: The decline was triggered by concerns over the potential impact of the regulatory changes on Tencent and other companies operating in the sector.
JSE:NPNShort
by Timonrosso