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JSE ALSI 40 playing catchup with with AmericasNasdaq and Dow Jones have been leading the pack with the indices. And now it looks like the JSE ALSI 40 is about to catch up. It's broken above the downtrend since 1 August 2023 and is showing upside to come. During the process, it's formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The right shoulder is not the most attractive with the neckline, but it's the overall bullish price action that is leading it. Also we see a short term uptrend with the 7>21MA. However, the big test will be the price testing the 200MA. The RSI is also showing upside momentum. If all goes well we could see the first target at 78,847. It's important to hedge the positions accordingly and remember anything can happen. Hence the risk should be smaller than usual.
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
City Lodge Symmetrical Triangle getting closer to the breakoutWhich way? Symmetrical Triangles are generally known as Continuation patterns. This means, when the price breaks out it normally moves in the trend of the prior direction... However, the trend has been sideways before this. It's been in the Twilight Zone for over a year. And it gets worse. When the price oscillates up and down in between the 200MA - You know it's in complete indecision. Many lessons to learn from this chart and this market. Many technical analysis tips you can add to your acumen and arsenal. And as City Lodge is in the Hospitality sector, things haven't gone up since Covid... The prices have become more expensive. The seasonal pricing are vastly different and most people just don't have the money like they used to. It's what I call the slight depression. The rich are getting ridiculously richer and the poor are struggling to even afford Lotto tickets. And this will get worse and worse. It's time to think above and beyond the system and mentality of the sheeple. And break away. So there is not much we can do with CLH other than wait for a break up. But if it breaks down, we can only watch it fall further. My two targets are in place and my humility is intact because I have NO idea which direction it wants to break.
JSE:CLH
by Timonrosso
Slow death for Adcorp continues since 2007 - New target!To think Adcorp Holdings went from R43 in 2007 down to R3.61 in 2023.... It's just been one long hard road down from there. In case you don't know, Adcorp Holdings is a South African-based workforce management and business process outsourcing company. And due to the bad managenent, poor financials, slow growth and major financial troubles after the Financial Crash along with COvid- it's not been easy. When we look at this chart, it's showing a slow death with a Bear rectangle now in the making. Break down and we will see R1.50. Nothing much we can do as no broker will allow a scrip to short the company. And investors can do nothing but wait and wait for any positive news. From a Blue Chip to a Penny Stock is also never a good sign for a company.
JSE:ADRShort
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Barloworld M Formations! Not one but TWO for the down! In May 2023, I wrote to you saying I epxect Barloworld to drop. ANd if you had the patience and just invested in this short, would be paying nicely by now. Not only because the price is down but also with the time held you could have made some interest income from the short. Anyway, there is nothing more confirming than when you have a Bearish formation like the M Formation and then you have ANOTHER Double Top. ANd since the price broke below the neckline, it's been carnage for Barloworld. The target remains at R64.17. And if it breaks below, I'll write another trading analysis...
JSE:BAWShort
by Timonrosso
1
Implats down channel fooled us all but not again!To think that in January 2023, IMplats was trading at R235.52. Today, in November we're looking at R73.12. And yet, it's been an imperceptible downward journey, that even I am too embarassed to realise today. Hindsight is a Biscuit! Well anyway, the new downward channel is showing more downside to come with volatile (jumpy) highs and lows which can easily stop out any trader along the way. But all in all, the target seems to be going to R44.00 I'm bearish...
JSE:IMPShort
by Timonrosso
1
UPDATE: Pan Africa's Diamond is still shining to R4.75Pan Africa initially formed a Boradening formation since July 2023. We sent out that it was going to do nothing more than bounce in it's current support and pattern and head on up... During the uptrend, it's been evident that the support level is strong and holding. This means, it's in the process of forming a Diamond Formation. The target remains at R4.75. However if it breaks above there, we are talking another big move up to R7.20. I believe technically, it's a great stock to have invested in and to just keep holding... With the gold price also looking strong and bullish, this helps with the analysis...
JSE:PANLong
by Timonrosso
Netcare ready to break above the Vuvuzela?Netcare has been in its downtrend since May 2023... It shortly dropped from R16.00 down to R13.68. And then, the price has been meandering in a downtrend below the 200MA since... As long as it stays in the Vuvuzela Formation, it will continue to go down. We need a strong breakout and for the price to close above the resistance of the pattern, before we put on our horns. Once we're in, the first target will be to the top of the downtrend level at R16.19. Until then, it's a waiting game.
JSE:NTCLong
by Timonrosso
UPDATE - ACL still falling like a rock to 20 centsWe unfortunately foresaw an ominous formation with ACL. An Inv Cup and Handle on 22 September 2022 where the first trade analysis was sent. The price broke below the Brim level and has been ever so slowly but evidently falling. The downtrend remains strong with the price below 200MA. And with no end of the bear market in sight, the target remains at 20cents. As deriavtive traders there isn't much we can do to short or take this opportunity. But hopefully it alarms bells for investors who think it's cheap to buy and believe it's reached the bottom. Greed and Ego has no place for investors. There is no point to pick a bottom but rather buy when it's up and in a bull market. Or else one gets emotionally and financially involves and ends up in a bad relationship for years on end.
JSE:ACLShort
by Timonrosso
UPDATE TCP target reached at R6.88 next target R11.00Since the last update, Transaction Capital made a breakaway gap. It then reached and tested the supports and bottoms at R4.06. Once it tested, it formed a Rounding Bottom and was shown to be buying from Smart Money. This sent the price flying up to close the gap and to the first target of R6.88. With the gap closed, we can now see a new formation (Rounding Bottom 2) forming. And if the price stays above R6.88, the next target will be at R11.00. I'm bullish with TCP.
JSE:TCPLong
by Timonrosso
Octodec ready for the next push up to R10.87 - NB Investment TipOctodec has had a challenging year with the price constantly on the downtrend. That was until 27 June 2023... We can see a huge wick where there was most likely buying from Smart Money and financial institutions... Since then the support has been tested numerous times and it's since then formed a W Formation (Double Bottom)... We do need the price to break above the neckline for further upside but things are looking good. IMPORTANT TRADING TIP AND MEDIUM TERM INVESTMENT TIP Also, with lower liquid and high volatile stocks, I like to extend the stop loss quite broad. I normally move the stop loss BELOW the entire pattern to give room in case there are jumpy moves along the process to stop us out... ALSO because there aren't CFDs or derivatives, these strategy works very well for medium term investments using technicals and fundamentals. Other indicators state the following: Price<200 RSI>50 - Bullish Target R10.87 ABOUT THE COMPANY: Octodec Investments Ltd is a real estate investment trust (REIT) operating primarily in South Africa. It was established in 1959 and is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Octodec focuses on property investment and property management, primarily in the commercial and residential sectors. Company Background: Octodec Investments Ltd is a well-established and respected real estate investment company in South Africa. Real Estate Focus: Octodec primarily invests in and manages a diverse portfolio of properties, including retail, commercial, and residential real estate. Geographic Focus: Its property portfolio is mainly situated in key urban areas within South Africa, including Johannesburg, Pretoria, and other high-demand regions. Property Portfolio: The company owns, manages, and leases a range of properties, including office buildings, shopping centers, and residential complexes. Income Generation: Octodec earns income through rental collections from its property portfolio.
JSE:OCTLong
by Timonrosso
South Africa Top forty is starting next leg to Bull RunThe South African top 40 index is the latest global index to have been spotted trying to begin a major up move in the next leg of the bull phase. The Index was in a corrective structure all of 2023 until the very recent Nov low. This entire corrective structure according to the Elliot wave theory was what we simply call a "wave 2 correction". The first leg of this phase (wave 1 according to Elliot wave model) occurred in Sep. 2022 and went on till Jan. 2023. The next projected target for wave 3 for this index should be the 80-85K(ZAR) mark(an up move of approx. 25% from current levels.) Note*- This post is for educational purpose only
TVC:SA40Long
by neeraj_2_sharma
2
History repeating with the Bear Market Rally or not?Top 40 is once again testing our patience... THe price broke below the M Formation, just to go back up to test an important downtrend level. We've seen this before with the strong buying price action, before the crash. So will history repeat itself? We will only know after the next two or three days. The price needs to either break up and trick everyone. Or touch the downtrend and come back down. The strongest sign we have of downside is lagging indicators 200>21>7... That's the only thing that brings clarity to the markets...
JSE:J200Short
by Timonrosso
The Dead Cat Bounce on the JSE ALSI 40 & why trading is so hardYou know why bear markets are so hard to trade? Because when the market bounces up (just a little), some stocks fly up. ANd this results in stop losses getting hit, before the market comes back down. That's why we need to determine the volatility movement within the indices and stocks and WIDEN stop losses and take profits - to not be victim of these short term bear market rallies. It's probably one of the most difficult aspects to getting right... We clearly see the JSE ALSI is in the bear market with the diagonal resistance along with price below the 200MA... The best we can do is short markets BUT also go long and hedge a few markets just in case we have a relief rally to make up for the stop losses hit with the shorts... That's the way of trading well.
JSE:J200Short
by Timonrosso
Naspers after a long YEAR fight - Bears have wonIt's been a trying time for Naspers Media company. Since January 2023, up until October 2023. The price has moved in a sideways range and has failed to break either way. That was un 18 October 2023, where the price pierced through a solid neckline of an M Formation, Since then, it's entered into bear market territory along with the JSE ALSI 40. The signs are all pointing down for now and we are more selling to come. Other indicators show downside. 200>21>7 RSI<50 Target R2,367.00
JSE:NPNShort
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Bell Equipment ready to ring to the first target R20.54We sent out a trade analysis on Bell Equipment. It formed a W Formation and I said the journey can be a long one as the main market remained sideways throughout the year. Then in September after consolidation, we saw another breakout pattern showing more upside to come. And since 11 October, the momentym has just been on the up. My first target remains at R20.54. Once it breaks up, we will most likely see it head to R30.00. But I'll be here to let you know...
JSE:BELLong
by Timonrosso
Bear market rally before the crash? We stated that since the price broke below the 200MA, that we entered and have remained in a bear market. And during bear trends, the market tends to zig zag along the way with strong downside pushes... Right now, the price is heading up to retest the most recent resistance. This is normally, where traders and retail traders will buy in and believe the market is heading up. But this is where we need to be cautious with our decisions. Yes we will see upside in many stocks, but we mustn't think this is the start of the bull market UNTIL we see the price go above the 200MA... The target for now remains at 56,483
JSE:J200Short
by Timonrosso
Transaction Capital Glimmer of hope to R6.88Transaction Capital has had a tough year. Between the CEO stepping down and with the market being in free fall. In September the price made a Breakway way, this signalled more selling and supply to bring down the price. Now we have seen a slight recovery pattern (Cup and Handle). This shows that the price is going to head up to fill the gap at around R6.88. Once it reached this level, we'll get more of an idea of where the price is more likely to go. Right now, it looks more bullish in the short term.
JSE:TCPLong
by Timonrosso
Has the Twilight Zone with the World Markets ended? -DOWN we go!If you've just been a position (swint trader) with shares this year. You'll know it's been bvery difficult and challening. We've seen world markets move in a sideways motion which I like to call the Twilight Zone. FTSE 100 - UK- DAX 30 - Germany CAC 40 - France ASX 200 - Australia It breaks down, it goes back up into the range. It breaks up and it goes back down into the range. The only semblance of hope right now is that the price has broken BELOW the range and has remained below the 200MA Blue LIne. This means, the markets are more likely to be and stay in the downtrend for the next couple of weeks and months. And we might need to look to short (sell) more than we go long and buy. The overall trend is down right now, but for how long? We as traders can only react and anticipate based on what we see in front of our eyes. It's all we can do really with strict money management principles to preserve and protect.
TVC:SA40Short
by Timonrosso
Tigerbrands just pounced and set its target to R214.46Rev Cup and Handle has indeed formed on Tigerbrands. And it looks like the buying and demand is on point. However, this is a very aggressive buy point which does not work with my trading demeanour. It looks like this share price rally was fundamentally driven with the CEO stepping down. Tjaart Kruger will replace Noel Doyle as the CEO starting 1 November, Tiger Brands said in a filing on Friday. 7>21 Price<200 RSI>50 Target R214.46 It's looking good for the company and the price as there was strong support around R138.00. We will just have to wait and watch for how it plays out.
JSE:TBSLong
by Timonrosso
1
UPDATE: Pick N Pay down in the dumps target still to R10.76Since the last update, we established Pick N Pay formed this M Formation which we were anticipating a break down. The break down took place and we were initially hesitant as we expected conservative testing of resistances and demand zones. But the fundamentals caught up to Pick N Pay, and the price continued its slump. The company is struggling with the inflated prices, challenging distribution channels and of course Load Shedding having a major effect on the business and the suppliers too. Unfortunately, we will continue to see downside for the retail giant and I hope it will make a come back in the next few years, as it has served an incredible element to South Africa and the variety of products unlike many places in the world. The target remains at R10.76.
JSE:PIKShort
by Timonrosso
1
Is the JSE ALSI forming a W Formation or is it darts to playIt's like throwing darts and guessing whether it's going up or down for the month... This is an intraday traders haven rather than a swing (position) traders environment... The best we can do is diversify and hedge different longs and shorts at the same time and risk a little... Only technical thing I can say is if the support holds and the price goes up, it could form a W Formation... This will be the only semblance of hope of upside to come. But we'll play it by ear as always.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso