USD ZAR SELL (US DOLLAR - SOUTH AFRICAN RAND)Hi there. Price is forming a continuation pattern to the downside. Wait for the price to hit the top of the pattern and watch strong price action for sell.
Southafricanrand
USDZAR -The Bearish CountThere are always both a Bull and a Bear Count running concurrently until 1 is invalidated. This is starting to lean more towards the bearish side now, i expect a retrace to 14.54 before any further downside. Strong Resistance at those levels
USDZAR - Long SetupsWe were looking for short setups on the Rand but that has been invalidated as the XX wave has retraced higher than the X wave.
This leads me to believe that we are in a new degree upward to complete our overall B wave.Not looking good here for South Africans
USDZAR - Short Trade of the MonthWe are looking at shorting the retrace of this move up no higher than the previous candle high.
Target 13.08 for now.
Great R:R ratio on this
EURZAR: Short opportunity on the 1D Lower High.The pair is trading on a long term 1D Channel Down. With both 1D (RSI = 51.944, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) and 1W (RSI = 47.364, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) neutral, we have a strong sell signal on the Channel's Lower High. TP = 14.8000.
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USDZAR - UpdatedCurrently forming the B wave of the Final Y wave of our correction.
Expecting a spike up to 13.85 then a slow bleed to 13.43 to test support before an expansive move up to 14.10 or so. We should see a nice drop towards the second half of the year into the 12.60 Area.
A little bit of sideways movement / accumulation then the final leg up to test the previous high around 15.60ish.
Expecting a massive move down to sub R12.00 after that to complete the giant Flat correction currently in play
ZAR JPY BUY (SOUTH AFRICAN RAND - JAPANESE YEN)Hi there. Price is forming a continuation pattern to the upside. Wait for the price to hit the bottom of the pattern and watch strong price action for buy.
USDZAR: Buy call on Inverse Head & Shoulders.The pair has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders on 1D with the neutral ADX - 34.570, Williams = -52.239, CCI = -21.3641, Highs/Lows = 0.0000 indicating the sideways bias for the next 5 sessions during the creation of the right shoulder. 4H (RSI = 46.340) also calls for sideways trading within the 13.77 - 13.98 neckline, so we are taking a long with TP = 13.9600.
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AUDZAR: Buy signal on the 1D Channel Down.The pair has made a potential Lower Low within the 1D Channel Down (RSI = 37.943, MACD = -0.070, B/BP = -0.1402) and although it may extend a little lower towards the 0.97234 1W Support, it should technically rebound towards a Lower High. We have estimated this at 10.200 and this is our TP.
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USDZAR: The long term bearish outlook.This pair is on a recurring bearish pattern sequence on the long term 1W chart. This mix includes a parabolic rise, which when it reaches a top, it develops a Channel Down on 1D (RSI = 37.566, Highs/Lows = -0.3871, BBP = -0.4893). This Channel Down is currently targeting 13.27600 and 12.800 in extension.
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ZARJPY: Approaching the Resistance.The price action has been narrowed down from a Channel Up to a Rising Wedge on 1D (RSI = 63.891, MACD = 0.106, Highs/Lows = 0.0795). Technically every pull back up to 8.000 is a buy towards the 8.550 Resistance (ext. 8.876).
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Eur/ZarRejecting the .618 retrace and 100 and 800MA's on daily. Looking for more downside on Ezar to break the trend line, but I am expecting an "X" wave (flat like correction) to occur, may be from here.
USD/ZARUZAR is in the process of making a double combo pattern. When it breaks that level it can go into a more complex B wave, like a flat type structure. So definitely watch that yellow zone. But by the time it is done we should have some large corrective structure that extends down to retrace the 5 wave impulse it completed. So there could be a nice buy coming but looking for it to at least break that low.
ZARJPY: Extreme scenario based on recurring patterns.This pair has been trading on a very long term bearish pattern on the 1M chart (RSI = 44.631, MACD = -0.196, Highs/Lows = -0.1826, B/BP = -0.8800) and the neutrality on the 1W chart (5 indicators) suggests that a High has been reached. The bands appear to be widening for the supports, so we are short with TP = 6.700.
EURZAR: Significant long term downside gap. Short.The pair is trading on a very long term 1M Channel Up (RSI = 57.375, MACD = 0.349, Highs/Lows = 0.2662, B/BP = 1.5626) that has a sizable downside gap to fill in the attempt to price a Higher Low. Our action plan is to short towards 15.08674 and then buy for the next Higher High (pattern continuation) with TP = 18.5000.
AUDZAR: 1D Channel Down. Short.The pair is attempting to develop a Channel Down on 1D by currently pricing a Lower High. 9.9000 can be taken as a potential short target.
Who's buying ZAR?=> Here we are expecting dollar strength to remain in the spotlight and EM to come under further pressure one more time before year end.
=> Although there has been some improvement on the political side in South Africa the foreign positioning in SAGB's remains heavy.
=> Yields are rising in the US as we widely expected since earlier in the yearend we see South Africa as very vulnerable in this climate as "smart money" will sell ZAR to hedge out of exposure.
=> Good luck all
Dollar remains in charge against ZAR=> Here we are positioning to the buy side and fading the recent strength from ZAR.
=> For all of those following our portfolio on Tradingview you will have noticed us tracking a rebound across some parts of the EM spectrum, South Africa is not one.
=> Timing wise... CPI data on Wednesday will come in slightly lower than expected but still remaining way above target. Growth is looking poor as the economy remains in technical recession and SARB will likely keep rates on hold.
=> Even if the SARB decide to jawbone a hawkish rhetoric we don't see this a a market moving event, the problem is far deeper than that here. Repatriation of land forces your currency in one direction.
=> A risk to our thesis is geared towards the long end of the curve via weak growth....
=> Good luck all
Target hit. Channel Up continuation. New Long.TP = 15.400 hit, quicker than expected, as the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 57.959, MACD = 0.486, B/BP = 1.1840) aggressively moved towards a new Higher High. Equally aggressively it has pulled back (Highs/Lows = 0) to a new Higher Low on our projected curve support. We have already bought this low and our long's TP is 15.88200.
Pain likely to continue - Chapter II=> For those who were looking at the MT weekly chart here is the range we are currently trading.
=> Solid resistance at 16.00xx with support at 14.70xx ...the bias towards the upside continues even after the profit taking we have seen the past few days.
=> We can't rule out chopping in our range for some days ahead before taking the 16.00xx handle eventually...(edited)
=> Good luck
