Spy - an arcing perspectiveSeems as though the S&P likes to follow these arc's... until they flatten out, and then a nice correction sets in. We may be getting close to that correction now.
I see a few occasions where these arcing consolidations broke bullish... but they seem to be outnumbered by the drops.
The optimism of good news can fade quickly in the tumultuous times... be careful chasing the bulls at these levels!!
I'd love to hear what you think of this perspective!
SOX
SOX broke trend line
at the same time, SOX daily chart showing ADX twin peaks (negative divergence) and RSI divergence.
Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment and education purposes and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation.
Personally I hold both long term long positions and occasionally short term short position, for disclosure purpose.
NASDAQ - Is this the EndZoneWe had a touchdown at 11.000, but maybe this is here the EndZone. The Index reaching now a long term resistance and we are in a crazy overbought market. Also NASDAQ:SOX might be in its EndZone as we also touched here the upper long term resistance. Watchout that your are not the last one who bought into the market.
SOX - Semiconductors might correct soonInsane what we saw for a rally since March 2020. Especially the TechSector and Semiconductors reach now a level which is crazy and not healthy. If you now invest in the broader market you hope that you´r not the last one who bought into the rallye. It´s time for a correction, so new money can flow into the market.
Watch out and take care of your Risk and Money Management.
𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $QQQ Daily. Critical Week AheadCritical week ahead with key earnings and July FOMC. 🐻s needs to stall into FOMC (7/29) for possible drop. Double top, Elliot Wave, divergence and waning momentum all in play. March’s fractal fits well on the chart 🤔
$NDX $NQ_F $XLK $SOX $FB $AMZN $AAPL $MSFT $NFLX $GOOG $TSLA $SPY $SPX $ES_F #ElliottWave #Stocks 📉
ASML - Relative Expensive but can still go up further.ASMA Price to Sales to Ratio during Dot Com Bubble was 15. The current Price to Sales is 10. So, the stock fundamentally need to go up another 50% before reaching Dot Com bubble level.
However, that does not incorporate the facts the growth in revenue and profitability.
The market is telling us that it is business as usual. With more money being printed, more money will flow into equities.
The majority of people will remain poor because they don't have any strategy or plan to ride this wave up. It's all about being emotional and blaming the 1% for every misery they have in life (even though they have the options to open brokerage accounts and buy stocks, unlike majority of people in the world that is unbanked and don't have access to capital)
Stop playing the blame game. Make money from capitalism and do what the fuck you want to do in life.
VIX 8 DAY AND 11 DAY BUY SIGNAL MOVING LONG SP AND SOX THE AVG POP IN VIX OVER THE LAST FEW YEAR OUTSIDE OF SHORT VIX PANIC HAS BEEN A SIGNAL OF 8 TO 11 DAYS I TOLD ALL TO LOOK FOR A 19.72 AND SP OF 3218 TO MOVE LONG .I DID CANCEL THAT ORDER BUT SEE THAT IT IS CLEAR TO TAKE THE LONGSIDE OF SP SOX QQQ AND EVEN OIL AND COPPER FOR A POSITION TRADE LAST ONE WAS OCT CYCLE LOW THE SPIRALS FROM 2 YEARS BACK SEEM TO HAVE COME IN 4 TD EARLY SO I AM NOW MOVED TO A STRONG BUY NEXT PEAK ABOVE 3344 TO 3410 WATCH RSP TO TURN OR ADD IF IT SEE 111.9 BEST OF TRADES
SOX - weekly cup and handle close to be completed.SOX look like as resistance is ahead. Weekly Cup and handle pattern very close to be complet. For me, it's a High tail warning but not confirmed. Lot of room below before to touch the lower trend line. SOX is still bullish until that happen only a breakout of weekly lower red trend line would change it for bearish.
AMD is still in raging bull and a parabolaAMD is an example of how market works and how the smart money works.
AMD is an example of how small bets can turn into big without taking any leverage or margin.
I personally don't know anyone who invested in AMD sub 3 dollars but they are plenty of then, hopefully they have not sold it yet.
AMD is an example of a company at the right time, in the right industry at the right point of time. Semiconductor is hot. Industrial 4.0, Deep learning, graphic cards, and AMD is just RIDING THE TREND altogether.
AMD is NOT the only stocks that did well. Globally, semis and tech have been doing very well.
Even in third world country like Malaysia, you have stocks that did 10-20x for the past few years benefiting from this major trend. Heck, AMD is a big company and still did 20x for the past 4 years.
The big gains will keep coming.
Learn programming and coding, scrape all the historical data from various data providers, do A.I and machine learning on these data, you will see the SAME PATTERN over and over again.
Parabola always happen and always act the same way. It is hard to know when the music stops, but ride it while the music keeps playing.
IR 4.0 is coming and we have not yet seen the impact from this industrial revolution, MOST people will come into the party late.
And most people will invest at the PEAK of this major global trend. Be the smart one, not the dumb one.
Remains bullish on AMD until 80-100 USD per share, then I may consider getting out my positions.
Regards.
Semiconductor and Industrial 4.0Most people don't understand don't get it when it comes to market.
Because they think that by just looking at charts, that is more than enough to beat the market.
Remember, market are moved by whales and smart money.
Whales and smart money have COMPREHENSIVE PLAN on the market.
They are not obsessed or focused on SHORT TERM and INTRADAY moves. That's why seconds chart on trading view is a joke.
Whales and Smart Money knows about the presence of Industrial Revolution 4.0
If you are not aware, these books should already be on your reading list:
www.amazon.com
www.amazon.com
Remember, Schawb wrote this book in 2016 and then the next one in 2018, if you read the book in 2016 and you know that blockchain will be the next big thing, you are already know that Bitcoin and Crypto will be huge back then.
Also, most semiconductor stocks gave massive gain in 2017, all due to I.R 4.0
Here are the list of 4.0 theme:
1. Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technologies
2. The Internet of Things
3. Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
4. Advanced Materials
5. Additive Manufacturing and Multidimensional Printing
6. Biotechnologies
7 Neurotechnologies
8 Virtual and Augmented Realities
9. Energy Capture, Storage and Transmission
10. Geoengineering
11. Space Technologies
Semiconductors play roles in blockchain, iot, ai, robotics and manufacturing. So, considering all of these multiple catalyst, shouldn't the semis go higher?
Anyone who just bought the dip from 2013 has been making a lot of money while those people who try to long and short and time the market are net loser.
This trend will continue until we reach peak expectations and when they are euphoria amongst the retailers and businesses, then that's the peak.
As long as everyone keeps calling for market to crash, then, market will grind higher in a wall of worry.
That's how market works. Deal with it.
Industrial 4.0 will overcome all the economic issues and economic policies. The catalyst is big enough that it will keep climbing and grinding higher.
SOXX ShortSOXX is on the verge of a major breakdown, much like the one that lead to the melt down in Q4 of last year (followed by a ~20% drop after the trend break). However, we are not there yet because we are resting on support. The main, long term pattern we are looking at is a bearish rising wedge. Within the wedge we also have a symmetrical triangle which was entered from above, which suggests - as a continuation pattern - that price will follow lower. Keep in mind there is also another green trend line underneath which acts as a type of extra confirmation which must be broken for a definitive sell signal. A sell signal will be confirmed once we have a daily close below those trends, and especially if we have a weekly close below. Given how resilient this market has been, it would not be unreasonable for SOXX to put in a marginal new high first, thus extending the negative divergences on the PPO and RSI before the grand finale to the downside. Since we are very oversold on the 1-hour candlesticks and have positive divergences building on the market futures (ES and NQ), we can at least expect a small thrust up to the resistance shown as the double green lines above. Either way, once we crack below, there will without question be volatility, maybe even a back-test of the broken wedge pattern, but ultimately I can foresee SOXX going down to the second yellow uptrend shown below. The lower yellow uptrend is one of the two supports I have drawn from the November 2008 lows, following the Great Recession. Both have acted as support and resistance many times, thus showing that both are important levels that price will abide by. Such a move would equate roughly to a 25% drop, depending from which point we break down from.
For this trade, we will be using SOXS, a triple levered inverse ETF of SOXX. I would avoid the use of put options since that involves gauging the time frame in which this move occurs which only adds even more difficulty to an already complex setup. A suggested stop loss would be anywhere just above the top of the daily candle which confirms the initial break down.
SOX - Semiconductor index as the Growth Tech Cycle Dow TheorySOX - Semiconductor index as the Growth Tech Cycle Dow Theory, in this chart we see a climax divergence in 2001 and some spots in the current cycle.. similar way to see transports index as a measure of the dow theory. it would be nice if was easy to get an advance decline line or something similar in order to see the "breathe" of SOX, I am sure will also state that same divergence timing before SPX dropped hard.
Semiconductor (SOX) to gain 50-100% in the next 5-10 yearsThe trend is obvious.
Proud to be the only few longs on the stock market while everyone else is screaming crash and recession.
Semiconductors are going through secular trend.
It will still be cyclical but the cycles will be much smaller and limited.
Charts are telling us different story.
Market always moves ahead of narrative.
The narratives are there, buried below the noises.
Valuations might be expensive, but the total value creations and total addressable market are big.
The trend is obvious.
People will be left wondering why they have not seen this coming in 10 years to come.