Semiconductor sector (SOXX) seem ready to turn its trendSemiconductor sector seems ready for a trend change. Since the March low, the sector has ran up more than triple digit percentage. As much as the sector is damaged less than retail and hospitality, it is very cyclical sector and it does get affected by business cycle. Semi is the canary in a coal mine of the tech sector (XLK), so when this turns, it will be a headwind for the entire tech sector as a whole. When the tech breaks, the market breaks for its heavy weight on the indexes.
Recently broke the minor yellow up trend line and reversing right at the long term trend line since last spring.
Initial target is the bottom of the trading range. $404ish depending on when it hits it.
2nd target is the horizontal support right below the channel. $384.46
As how bullish the overall sentiment is in the market recently, once it turns, it will be pretty quick move downward. Potential long term targets are listed but SOXX will not going to fall double digit without if XLK and indexes are resilient.
Only the time will tell but it will be prudent and be cautious. Scaling down on aggressiveness won't be a bad idea and have some hedges.
Have a good trade everyone,
T.
SOX
NEXT BUBBLE SOX 3200 POP We are now in the final days of this next Bubble . one by one has had a classic blowoff with most speaking of a NEW PARADINE and that we are in a NEW BULL MARKET QUOTE !! BASED ON THE DATA WE ARE AT THE 12 HR with a count down nearing the ZERO HOUR ! I am stating this as a very clear bubble near its end of Debt based money Velocity
NVDA ShortNVDA looking like it could break below this tight trading range it's been in recently. After going on a huge run this year, if it breaks down from this range into a downtrend could have a nice short-term sell-off... Of course wouldn't think about a long-term short given its leadership status in the semiconductor industry, but a nice correction could still be in the cards here.
Spy - an arcing perspectiveSeems as though the S&P likes to follow these arc's... until they flatten out, and then a nice correction sets in. We may be getting close to that correction now.
I see a few occasions where these arcing consolidations broke bullish... but they seem to be outnumbered by the drops.
The optimism of good news can fade quickly in the tumultuous times... be careful chasing the bulls at these levels!!
I'd love to hear what you think of this perspective!
SOX broke trend line
at the same time, SOX daily chart showing ADX twin peaks (negative divergence) and RSI divergence.
Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment and education purposes and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation.
Personally I hold both long term long positions and occasionally short term short position, for disclosure purpose.
NASDAQ - Is this the EndZoneWe had a touchdown at 11.000, but maybe this is here the EndZone. The Index reaching now a long term resistance and we are in a crazy overbought market. Also NASDAQ:SOX might be in its EndZone as we also touched here the upper long term resistance. Watchout that your are not the last one who bought into the market.
SOX - Semiconductors might correct soonInsane what we saw for a rally since March 2020. Especially the TechSector and Semiconductors reach now a level which is crazy and not healthy. If you now invest in the broader market you hope that you´r not the last one who bought into the rallye. It´s time for a correction, so new money can flow into the market.
Watch out and take care of your Risk and Money Management.
𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $QQQ Daily. Critical Week AheadCritical week ahead with key earnings and July FOMC. 🐻s needs to stall into FOMC (7/29) for possible drop. Double top, Elliot Wave, divergence and waning momentum all in play. March’s fractal fits well on the chart 🤔
$NDX $NQ_F $XLK $SOX $FB $AMZN $AAPL $MSFT $NFLX $GOOG $TSLA $SPY $SPX $ES_F #ElliottWave #Stocks 📉
ASML - Relative Expensive but can still go up further.ASMA Price to Sales to Ratio during Dot Com Bubble was 15. The current Price to Sales is 10. So, the stock fundamentally need to go up another 50% before reaching Dot Com bubble level.
However, that does not incorporate the facts the growth in revenue and profitability.
The market is telling us that it is business as usual. With more money being printed, more money will flow into equities.
The majority of people will remain poor because they don't have any strategy or plan to ride this wave up. It's all about being emotional and blaming the 1% for every misery they have in life (even though they have the options to open brokerage accounts and buy stocks, unlike majority of people in the world that is unbanked and don't have access to capital)
Stop playing the blame game. Make money from capitalism and do what the fuck you want to do in life.
VIX 8 DAY AND 11 DAY BUY SIGNAL MOVING LONG SP AND SOX THE AVG POP IN VIX OVER THE LAST FEW YEAR OUTSIDE OF SHORT VIX PANIC HAS BEEN A SIGNAL OF 8 TO 11 DAYS I TOLD ALL TO LOOK FOR A 19.72 AND SP OF 3218 TO MOVE LONG .I DID CANCEL THAT ORDER BUT SEE THAT IT IS CLEAR TO TAKE THE LONGSIDE OF SP SOX QQQ AND EVEN OIL AND COPPER FOR A POSITION TRADE LAST ONE WAS OCT CYCLE LOW THE SPIRALS FROM 2 YEARS BACK SEEM TO HAVE COME IN 4 TD EARLY SO I AM NOW MOVED TO A STRONG BUY NEXT PEAK ABOVE 3344 TO 3410 WATCH RSP TO TURN OR ADD IF IT SEE 111.9 BEST OF TRADES
SOX - weekly cup and handle close to be completed.SOX look like as resistance is ahead. Weekly Cup and handle pattern very close to be complet. For me, it's a High tail warning but not confirmed. Lot of room below before to touch the lower trend line. SOX is still bullish until that happen only a breakout of weekly lower red trend line would change it for bearish.
AMD is still in raging bull and a parabolaAMD is an example of how market works and how the smart money works.
AMD is an example of how small bets can turn into big without taking any leverage or margin.
I personally don't know anyone who invested in AMD sub 3 dollars but they are plenty of then, hopefully they have not sold it yet.
AMD is an example of a company at the right time, in the right industry at the right point of time. Semiconductor is hot. Industrial 4.0, Deep learning, graphic cards, and AMD is just RIDING THE TREND altogether.
AMD is NOT the only stocks that did well. Globally, semis and tech have been doing very well.
Even in third world country like Malaysia, you have stocks that did 10-20x for the past few years benefiting from this major trend. Heck, AMD is a big company and still did 20x for the past 4 years.
The big gains will keep coming.
Learn programming and coding, scrape all the historical data from various data providers, do A.I and machine learning on these data, you will see the SAME PATTERN over and over again.
Parabola always happen and always act the same way. It is hard to know when the music stops, but ride it while the music keeps playing.
IR 4.0 is coming and we have not yet seen the impact from this industrial revolution, MOST people will come into the party late.
And most people will invest at the PEAK of this major global trend. Be the smart one, not the dumb one.
Remains bullish on AMD until 80-100 USD per share, then I may consider getting out my positions.
Regards.
Semiconductor and Industrial 4.0Most people don't understand don't get it when it comes to market.
Because they think that by just looking at charts, that is more than enough to beat the market.
Remember, market are moved by whales and smart money.
Whales and smart money have COMPREHENSIVE PLAN on the market.
They are not obsessed or focused on SHORT TERM and INTRADAY moves. That's why seconds chart on trading view is a joke.
Whales and Smart Money knows about the presence of Industrial Revolution 4.0
If you are not aware, these books should already be on your reading list:
www.amazon.com
www.amazon.com
Remember, Schawb wrote this book in 2016 and then the next one in 2018, if you read the book in 2016 and you know that blockchain will be the next big thing, you are already know that Bitcoin and Crypto will be huge back then.
Also, most semiconductor stocks gave massive gain in 2017, all due to I.R 4.0
Here are the list of 4.0 theme:
1. Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technologies
2. The Internet of Things
3. Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
4. Advanced Materials
5. Additive Manufacturing and Multidimensional Printing
6. Biotechnologies
7 Neurotechnologies
8 Virtual and Augmented Realities
9. Energy Capture, Storage and Transmission
10. Geoengineering
11. Space Technologies
Semiconductors play roles in blockchain, iot, ai, robotics and manufacturing. So, considering all of these multiple catalyst, shouldn't the semis go higher?
Anyone who just bought the dip from 2013 has been making a lot of money while those people who try to long and short and time the market are net loser.
This trend will continue until we reach peak expectations and when they are euphoria amongst the retailers and businesses, then that's the peak.
As long as everyone keeps calling for market to crash, then, market will grind higher in a wall of worry.
That's how market works. Deal with it.
Industrial 4.0 will overcome all the economic issues and economic policies. The catalyst is big enough that it will keep climbing and grinding higher.