Weekly Preview on FX & ETFsThis video is a weekly preview into what I am looking at for the EUR/USD, GBP/JPY and USD/JPY as well as ETF's.
SOXL
Opening (IRA): SOXL April 17th 24 Covered Call... for 22.48 debit.
Comments: Starting my run at April, adding at strikes better than what I currently have on.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 22.48
Max Profit: 1.52
ROC at Max: 6.76%
50% Max: .76
ROC at 50% Max: 3.38%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
DCA Play $SOXL | TARGET 1 REACHEDPrice action moved with good momentum and maintained volume for the trading day.
The original call is good to go:
T2 @ $32.70 to gap fill if momentum is persists (poor spelling when analyzing at 3am - but you get the gist)
I expect a minor pull back before gap fill; depending on price action, may or may not add to position.
A gap up would be signal to close all profits, with a +10% PnL.
gg
Opening (IRA): SOXL March 28th 20 Covered Call... for a 18.91 debit.
Comments: I wanted to take advantage of this little bit of weakness here, but at less risk than what I ordinarily take, giving me more "room to be wrong." Here, selling the -84 delta calls against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short calls.
Additionally, it's at strikes better than what I currently have on ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 18.91
Max Profit: 1.09
ROC at Max: 5.76%
50% Max: .55
ROC at 50% Max: 2.88%
Is SOXL ever going to breakout...Have held long on SOXL for about 5.5 weeks now with an average price of $30. I identified a wedge alongside "hidden" divergence on the MACD on a weekly time scale but it's still been pretty much in the same zone/area of consolidation.
When the DeepSeek news broke out, I was for sure ready to cut ties with this one since the Nasdaq was in a complete bloodbath but I gave it some room and glad to see it has been recovering OK for now.
My original target for one is/was $40 but I'd consider taking it off the table if we saw $35+ again. We'll see how this week performs and watch for that gap being filled.
Good Luck & Trade Safe.
Opening (IRA): SOXL March 21st 23 Covered Call... for a 21.09 debit.
Comments: Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 21.09/share
Max Profit: 1.91
ROC at Max: 9.06%
50% Max: .86
ROC at 50% Max: 4.03%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit is not hit.
EUR/USD & GBP/USD - Is the Bull still alive...After the Trump tariffs gap last week, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD experienced a significant gap down but recovered nicely. GBP/USD positions were closed at a small profit to protect overall risk but still holding long positions on the EUR/USD and continue to look for 1.0600 as long as price does not exceed 1.0200.
Expecting some volatility this upcoming week especially with Fed chairman Powell testifying on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Will keep an eye on price action and it's development.
Aside from FX, still holding SOXL and looking for the gap to be filled but keeping a close eye on the breakdown below $24.
Good Luck & Trade Safe.
Oh no! SHORT TERM BEARISH- BACK TO 116 AT LEAST. $NVDA SELL NOW!A dead cat bounce refers to a temporary, short-lived recovery in the price of a falling stock. The term comes from the notion that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height. It is also commonly used to describe any situation where something experiences a brief comeback during or after a significant decline. This phenomenon is sometimes called a "sucker rally."
- Breakdown of the rising wedge pattern.
- SMA 20 & 50 are coming down
- Tariff wars with China and other countries
- Deepseek Shock/ Tech Shocks aka Al Black Monday on
- High inflation (Fed NOT "in a hurry" to push more rate cuts)
- Volume is decresing while price is increasing too fast.
- NASDAQ:SOXX shows weakness
Hopefully, NVDA holds at $116. Otherwise, it might gap down to fill at $95.
Advise selling now and purchasing again at a lower price.
Opening (IRA): SOXL March 21st 20 Covered Call... for an 18.21 debit.
Comments: Adding to my current position at strikes better than what I have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 18.21
Max Profit: 1.79
ROC at Max: 9.83%
50% Max: .90
ROC at 50% Max: 4.91%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my TP is not hit.
Opening (IRA): SOXL March 21st 23 Covered Call... for a 20.87 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV. Adding to my position at a break even better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 20.87
Max Profit: 2.13
ROC at Max: 10.21%
50% Max: 1.07
ROC at 50% Max: 5.11%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals (assuming I can get in at a break even better than what I currently have on), and/or roll out the short call in the event take profit is not hit.
Opening (IRA): SOXL March 21st 20 Covered Call... for a 17.96 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV plus weakness. Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/ Break Even: 17.96/share
Max Profit: 2.04
ROC at Max: 11.36%
50% Max: 1.02
ROC at 50% Max: 5.68%
Pre-FOMC Week - Bullish run on the EUR/USD & GBP/USD....Like last week's video analysis, I'm currently holding long positions on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. I'm expecting strong movements in the coming week due to FOMC and Interest Rate Policy.
The ETF SOXL, has been running well although Friday dumped pretty hard but long positions remain solid. I'll remain diligent in observing the price action this week and hopefully book a good 90% profit so far for the 1st Quarter of 2025.
EUR/USD:
•1.0265
•1.0416
•Target: 1.06000
GBP/USD:
•1.2209
•Target: 1.2600 or 1.2700
ETF SOXL:
•$29.01
•Target: $36 or $40
Good Luck. Trade Safe.
Opening (IRA): SOXL March 21st 29 Covered Call... for a 26.85 debit.
Comments: High IV; starter position. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 26.85
Max Profit: 2.15
ROC at Max: 8.01%
50% Max: 1.08
ROC at 50% Max: 4.00%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at better strikes/better break evens than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if take profit is not hit.
FX & ETF Bullish Market ideas for EUR/USD, GBP/USD & SOXLIn this video I share my bullish ideas on two currency pairs (EUR/USD & GBP/USD) along with ETF (SOXL) and reasons for looking at the bullish side.
The markets look a bit flat at the moment however I'm keeping an eye on how we close this week and make preparations going into next week which could spark some volatility as Donald Trump takes office.
Good Luck. Trade Safe.
$NVDA Buy now when everyone is in fear! Easy Rally to $165 !!Based on recent analyses and expert forecasts, NVIDIA's stock price (NVDA) is anticipated to perform robustly in the first quarter of 2025. Analysts have set a target price around $170 if the stock can convincingly surpass the $145 mark.
Reason to BUY NASDAQ:NVDA
Strong Demand for AI: NVIDIA's GPUs play a critical role in training complex AI models. The rising demand for AI technologies, particularly from major tech companies, is boosting the need for NVIDIA's specialized chips.
Data Center Growth: NVIDIA's data center revenue has been experiencing significant growth. This segment now accounts for a substantial portion of their total revenue, and ongoing investments in data centers by cloud service providers are expected to further drive demand.
New Product Launches: NVIDIA is preparing to increase shipments of its new H200 GPU, which boasts greater efficiency and power compared to its predecessor. This could attract more customers and boost sales.
Positive Market Sentiment: Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on NVIDIA's stock, with some predicting further price increases due to sustained demand and strong financial performance.
AI Monetization: Companies such as Microsoft and Meta are seeing increased monetization from AI applications, potentially leading to higher spending on NVIDIA's products.
BUY NOW NASDAQ:NVDA !!
Fear & Greed Index: 39 (FEAR)
Green Days: 13/30 (43%)
RSI as of 01/13/2025
200-Day SMA: $119.35
50-day SMA: $139.86
Volatility: 3.12%
I also anticipate a dramatic increase due to the following events:
CPI 01/15/2025
Trump Administration 01/20/2025
FOMC Meeting: 01/29/2025
Weelky Leading Indicators are NOT BullishThe Weekly Leading Indicators have had broken into Bearish mode.
SG10Y have broken up of a trendline
TIPS and TLT have broken down support
JNK similarly broke down of support
The combined US Equities weekly chart are at an indecision range, but daily chart analyis tells of a more bearish story.
SOXL is holding up somewhat though.
So while all 4 Leading Indicators are red flagging.
The Indices have yet to respond.
Watch for it... and be careful.
Happy New Year 2025!
$AMD GAP FILL 138 & 160A stock gap occurs when there's a significant jump in a stock's price after market closure, typically driven by some news. When this gap is filled, it indicates that the stock's price has reverted to its pre-gap, or "normal," level. This common occurrence happens as the price stabilizes after the initial rush of buying and trading sparked by the news subsides.
Exhaustion gaps are usually the most likely to be filled because they indicate the end of a price trend.
BUY NOW
According to 30 Wall Street analysts who provided 12-month price targets for Advanced Micro Devices over the past three months, the average price target is $182.18. The high forecast is $220.00, and the low forecast is $145.00. This average price target indicates a 46.14% change from the last price of $124.60 (as of 12/23/2024)
NASDAQ:AMD 's growing presence in the markets for central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) is poised to drive significant stock gains. We foresee a robust outlook for the semiconductor specialist's Epyc CPUs in the server and data center segment, as well as strong performance from the company's M1350 and M1400 GPUs.
+ NASDAQ:AMD net profit YoY grew by 777.88% which is 633.31% above its peer average
+ NASDAQ:AMD revenue has grown by 17.57% YoY from Q3 2023 to Q3 2024
+ NYSE:MD EPS is forecasted to grow by 41.26% YoY from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024
+ NASDAQ:AMD has a lower debt to equity ratio (3.02%) compared to its peer average (33.87%)
+ NASDAQ:AMD 's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 40.07% to 3.02% over the past 5 year
Is $AMD a massive buy opportunity for 2025?Is NASDAQ:AMD a massive buy opportunity for 2025?
AMD is doing great financially/fundamentally with chips that is 2nd to NVDA. In addition, their data center revenues are growing exponentially.
It is a probably a great buying opportunity here at $121 going into 2025.
Weekly Indicator Panel WARNED last weekend...ALL Red Flags already, as warned by my panel of leading indicators.
You would see that all threshold have been triggered and are clearly red flags IF the week closes at current levels. The week has not ended, but it appears bad enough.
There should be an attempt tp recover somewhat, but overall appears that Santa Claus might crash this rally this year. Furthermore, the year end and year start are keen indicators of the year ahead as well... so watch closely.
$AMD DOUBLE BOTTOM EASY $175 BY NEXT EARNINGA double bottom pattern is a traditional technical analysis chart formation that signifies a significant trend reversal and a shift in momentum from a previous downward movement in market trading. It depicts a security or index experiencing an initial decline, followed by a rebound, then another decline to a level similar to the initial drop, and finally a subsequent rebound that may lead to a new uptrend.
- PlayStation 6 Processor Contract : NASDAQ:AMD has secured the contract to supply processors for the upcoming PlayStation 6, surpassing Intel. This agreement ensures the sale of millions of custom chips and generates billions in revenue, solidifying AMD's position in the gaming console market.
- Strong Financial Performance: NASDAQ:AMD reported remarkable revenue growth, with a 17.57% increase in the third quarter of 2024. This performance underscores AMD's robust market position and profitability.
-AI and Semiconductor Supercycle: The semiconductor industry, including NASDAQ:AMD , is poised to benefit from the rising demand for AI-related products and services. This trend is expected to drive further growth and profitability for AMD.
Positive Analyst Ratings: Numerous analysts have given NASDAQ:AMD a "Strong Buy" rating, with price targets ranging from $155 to $250. This optimistic outlook suggests significant potential gains in AMD's stock value.
AS OF 12/16/2024
RSI (14) 33.31
52W Low 3.99%
Weekly Leading Indicator Panel warns...Reviewing the Weekly charts, especially for the leading indicators, it appears that there is a warning of downside risk imminent.
SG10Y bond yield are about to break out.
JNK TLT and TIP all have bearish engilfing that covers the previous gap up.
Thing is, the coombined US equities chart is somewhat bullish, with a rough bearish harami at the bearish best indication.
Even SOXL appears to be bullish somewhat...
No action needed, but just an early warning given to set the boundaries yet again... looks like the Christmas Rally just fizzled out.
Direxion Semiconductor 3x Bull | SOXL | Long at $30.00So many semiconductor companies... which one to choose? Enter AMEX:SOXL - not for the faint of heart. Losses and gains triple compared to most semiconductor ETFs, so stay away if high-risk plays aren't your thing. The top three holdings are NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:AVGO , and NASDAQ:NVDA - two of which are at all-time highs...
I wouldn't be shocked if AMEX:SOXL enters the low $20's to test the base of my historical simple moving average area, but I don't think we are done hearing about AI and the semi demand. There are large gaps to fill above and below the current price and we are at the 50/50 stage (i.e. historical simple moving average zone) for a price move up or down.
My bet is up, especially with the new presidential administration. If politicians start dumping semis, I'm out. Thus, at $30.00 AMEX:SOXL is in a personal buy zone.
Target #1 = $35
Target #2 = $40
Target #3 = $50
Target #4 = $60
$NVDA sold off post earnings but it is bound for $160NASDAQ:NVDA sold off post earnings but it is bound for $160
The revenue, profit margin and demand are all there.
NVDA to $160 - idea invalidated with a daily close below $132.00
