SOXL price prediction for 2/1/2022We all know you cannot predict the market, but here's my opinion for this Semiconductor ETF by February 1, 2022.
I base this prediction on the continued exodus from risk assets because of the likely FOUR rate hikes this year. I see NO support levels between our current price and the prior highs of 45+- There are two trend lines that would intersect at this level by February 1. I think a trend change could occur at one of the next two Fed Reserve meetings; January 25,26 or March 15,16.
Just my opinion, but I think Semi's will continue to lead the market as a whole, so get ready to buy in hard once we get some support.
SOXS
BUY $SOXS - NRPicks Jul 05The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the inverse (or opposite) of the daily performance of the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index. The fund, under normal circumstances, invests in swap agreements, futures contracts, short positions or other financial instruments that, in combination, provide inverse (opposite) or short leveraged exposure to the index equal to at least 80% of the fund's net assets (plus borrowing for investment purposes). The index measures the performance of domestic companies engaged in the design, distribution, manufacture and sale of semiconductors. The fund is non-diversified.
SOXS - Accumulation remains the Trade PlanSemiconductors continue to see large Geopolitical Risks building.
American Consumers have purchased their Fill.
Computers, White Goods, Autos.... etal.
Q3 EPS will be disappointing - EPS, Guidance, Demand.
Shortages and the inherent risk have not been priced in
as this event remains in waiting.
VXM is squatting on Lows once again... sideways to down
is our Indication.
AAPL MSFT GOOG NVDA FB - will attempt another Gamma Squeeze.
The State of the Semi shortage is being grossly understated.
TQQQ - Sell to open 143.55Globex SELL - 143.55 x 2K - 1st Position
SEC warns on China's Listings transparency.
China remains the 800lb Gorilla in the room.
The rising wedge broke, only to be retested with
the required new ATH.
Big tech with the exception of FB/GOOG will be
lowering guidance, reducing EPS to compound prior
Q2 negative guidance.
AMZN YOY Warning stuck, AMZN has had difficulty
moving higher - ie. dead $.
Big Data will excel while Semiconductors come under
further Duress (SOXS SELL 40K)
Our Sell Position is to 4K shares, the target below
remains a break of the prior lows.
Geopolitical Risks remain high within the SCS/Taiwan
areana.
Interest Rate pressure will continue to build as the Yield
Curve's 10 - 30 spread is setting up to decline in Price as
Yields move higher into Fall.
FX is projecting a Higher DX, consolidating as Consumers
continue to increasingly Hoard Dollars.
NQ - Building December SELLs NQ ES RTY YM - First EntriesMNQ STO - 10 x 15365
MNQ STO - 5 x 15360
MNQ STO - 5 x 15355
MNQ STO - 5 x 15350
EQ - 2.5 NQ Sells
After Kaplans later Friday reversal, the die was cast for the cartoonish over throw.
Our Initial Target from 3 weeks ago was 15363, this target was met and exceeded
in the NQ SEP CT @ 15384.
We will continue to use SEP as the BTO Hedge, we closed 2 NQ from 170 break
at 322. We hold Zero SEP Hedge for NQ currently.
We remain in a large Bid for SOXS, with 28K @ 6.91~
ES -STO 6.5K CTs
RTY - 0 Positions
YM - 0 Positions
CL - STO 7K 65.87
VXX - BTO 6 CTs 2644
VX - M1/M2/M3 BTO 8 CTs on Curve
VXM - M1 40MCTs
SOXS - 28K ~ 6.912
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The VIX Curve implies an 86% chance of increased Volatility for the Indices today.
Extremes in many metrics and indicators, keep us in a Line Feed Out strategy for a violent
reversal.
The Monthly patterns, imho - are completing off two historic conditions:
1. A break away monthly Gap - never occurred in History, never.
2. 7 Monthly Bull Bars probability is 12:1 against. An 8th has never occurred in the past 25 Years.
Market breadth is extreme in its weakness.
Gamma was once again the driver, with vastly reduced Call Volumes.
AAPL TSLA GOOG NVDA - another attempt at GS will fail imho
AMC Apes bought the 39s... we are seller of AMC from 37.50 to 41.00
TSLA - Sellers at 720 - 750
ARKK - Sellers 120.11 to 125
WE Anticipate a violent reversal very soon. Ideally, today should close Negative no later than Globex.
Prosperity to those positioned for the reversal.
- HK
SOXS - Thank you We began entries today, given the degenerate squeeze brought to us by
FED wingmen Black Rock and VanGuard.
We'll embrace the .382 level when it trades, even should it fall short in
the 18s, it's 200% off the Wall.
A close over 6.98 will see further additions.
Out first adventure came off an average of 6.12 :)
Hunt, Kill - Profit.
xoxo - Hunter Killer
SOXS - Exited Buys @ 7.33 to 7.50 --- GAP BELOWSOH for now as we closed a 12K position bottom to top of implied Range.
Caution warranted here as weaker hands have taken over.
6.86 is the Line in the Sand for now, a clear SELL should it close below.
There will be time to reload and patience will be required.
A move to and through 7.71 would imply a Bullish continuation
to 9.35.
Trade the Break, Wall Street wants its Fill.
ES - 9-10% downside continues to build as VX completesChopping along on low Volume while the likes of Fanboi
carnage is readily apparent... not a confidence builder.
Tick Tock into Wednesday... chip chop the top.
Even the Apes bought it, trendy.
A throw-over would be the absolute perfect setup for
this impending, incipient, unimaginable - decline.
This week will be one for the books.
VIX - Trade Plan for VOL CRUSH ReversalBuy J U N K, chase green bars, chase false overthrows...
Patience, Analysis, Temperament, Constitution of
Trade Plan - Probability favors all.
BTD chasers.
We'll happily take the opposing trade and here it is:
Volatility Crush Reversal
VIX Curve - ON Gap Fills of VIX Cash/Spot & VX Curve
we will have completed inverse ladders on the following
Positions:
VXX 5K - Objective 20K Position, Projected lows into Wednesday ~ 25.08
Trade Structured INV LDR @ 25.68, 25. 36, 25.12, 25.06.
VX Curve: M2 - 0 Position / Objective 5K
VX Curve M3 - O Position / Objective 5K
VX Curve M4 - 0 Position / Objective 2.5K
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SMH/TECH Extension to Target & Top Tick 7-9 Large Cap Prop
SOXS: 40K Position / Objective 60K
NQ: 0 Position / Sell INV LDR to 15363 overthrow
TSLA - 50 @ 720 Nov Puts / Objective 100 to 780
Hedge only on Gamma FM Only, Theta not an issue
Shares 400 / Objective 1500 INV LDR to 780
AMC/GME - Digging in to kill the roll
AMC - Position Objective 12.5K to 37.88
GME - Degenerates are eyeballing 300 GF, no fill until 2022
Collar at 195 Strike out through November.
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Financials
ZB - 0 Position, TLT Gap Fill ahead
Wednesday Fed minutes for entry
ZN - 0 Position, TLT Gap Fill ahead
Wednesday Fed minutes for entry
TLT - 0 Position, Gap Fill ahead
Wednesday Fed minutes for entry
NQ BANK - Observing Bank as RTY ES
will catch the head fake for entry.
Financials will drive ES RTY YM Entries
Hedges will be Large Micro CTs in Bracket,
OCO form for high turn entry/exit - Hedge ONLY.
Powell - Still Thinking about...
*Clarida - Taper could begin later this year
Quarles - See's Taper discussion coming into view
*Brainard - Echoes Taper discussion for September
*Waller - Reduction of Bond Purchases in October
*Bowman - Policy Statement Support ahead, Hawkish
THE BOG HAS TURNED HAWKISH.
Events:
ALL BOG Members voted for/supported:
Individual capital requirements for all large banks, effective on October 1, 2021
$1 Trillion
CBCD central bank digital currency Policy Objective
Enforcement actions have been tailored to NY/NJ Banks, epicenter of US Finance
SOXS - .382 Test Ahead @ 18.72200% Upside here.
Large Volume on Lows.
Panic reversal has setup.
NQ will be the first to fail on Inflation Trade.
FED told us so this week and last.
Digi $'s come home to roost a bit.
Hot CPI assures a D U N K in time, as CON.fidence in BTD
begins to fail.
Volumes at extremes, Divergences at extremes, Valuations at extremes.
Correction ahead for NQ/TECH/SMH as Semis see Geopolitical Risk.
SOX, SMH needs to hold hereTheres a saying that SEMIs lead the market. $SMH finally broke an upper band trendline that took alot of work to do because of very little volume. Its tired and wants to rest. This is an important test but bids need to come back. Will June be the month when buyers pile back in? My gut tells me we hit 252 this week then break down again or at least stay above the band. Stocks that had great earnings but got slaughtered will do well. $SMH will be range bound till July earnings.
SOX: Semiconductors may experience sell off soonWhile most people consider the semiconductor shortage to be bullish for semiconductor stocks I believe there is a serious case for a bear scenario. With the supply chain this heavily disrupted it is possible that while margin will be high on individual sales the number of sales is lower considering the variance in the types of semiconductors that need to be purchased for different products as well as the increased competition that is going to exist between Semiconductor Manufacturers. To profit off of this thesis I will be purchasing SOXS Periodically until I believe the move may complete. I am viewing this as an ABC correction on SOX. High valuations need to be supported by revenue and next earnings will betray the earlier semiconductor stock boom that was spurred on by Covid.