Soybeans closing in on bullish GartleyMay Soybeans is closing in on the final steps for a bullish Gartley. Support is at 1036. Price action could push this lower to trend line. 20 day moving average has rolled bearish. Brazil crop 25% in and sees this crop big. Look for USDA speech on Thursday for 2016 numbers and 2017 projections.
Soybean
Soybeans Bullish Gartley PatternSoybeans bullish Gartley was adjusted up after making a top on Monday. Higher price was rejected Wednesday. How far this falls is conducive on Soybean sales and the crop being taken off in South America. 1036 would be a good area. Open Interest is rising supporting fall.
"Brazil is harvesting a big crop but rain the next few days could slow that process. USDA expects a 104.1 million metric ton harvest there, but private forecasts are larger with some at 105 million."
SOYBEAN MEAL TRIANGLE BREAKOUT IS VERY BULLISHSince october we have been moving in a sideway motion. I think this range is coming to an end. The bulls dried out the bears, and are now ready to take the price to the next level higher at 360. The impulsive breakout yesterday is paving the way for more gains to come.
Note the bullish hidden divergence, which also shows the increasingly strong hand of the bulls and the RSI breakout.
The seasonal pattern is also in favor of the bull side, from february until june is the best seasonal phase for soybean price pressure, so this might support this trade idea.
I am personally looking for a small retracement towards 320 and will look at the lower timeframes for signs to enter with a stop at 310 and the plan is to trail this position towards 360.
Please use proper risk management and dont risk too much.
Best of luck.
soybean breakoutFirst of all, this is a late analysis but it shows a simple textbook style breakout therefore we would like to share. 3 days ago price broke the wedge and the 200 ma down. Next day a little pullback (should have sold here) and another strong bearish candle. If this gives another chance we would think about selling this close to 200 dma. For now this is a sell
Soybean staging for another run at resistanceIs soybeans setting the stage to make another run at an upper channel line of resistance started with the August 2012 high? Current weekly and daily action looks like this is the case. Should price continue up, how it responds will indicate if new shorting positions should be taken of existing longs can be held. Another option would be to hold longs with this line as target and then re-enter once price shows direction.
weekly:
daily:
SOYBEAN - Back to support, now what?This weekly chart reveilles what happened after price shoot up...80% to the centerline as we know.
Unfortunately it never gave us a chance to profit from this straight way up. The only potential, riskier entry would have be taking the test/retest at the up sloping A/R.
Price reached the centerline, bounced back down, did a textbook retest of the zoome centerline and fell off the cliff.
New chance to buy?
Well, at least we would have a tiny little structure (green block) which could act as support.
If you wanna be right, look to the left, my mentor always said. By doing this we can see where the real base where in 2007/2008. There we have a huge structure which to me on the longer timeframe is very important, as longterm traders respect and trade upon those mountains and valleys.
Extending it's base to the right, we see where price would land today...right in the zone of
a) the very old base
b) the support of the (green) block and
c) potentially down to the L-MLH of the orange fork
If ones intention is to play the big game, then he definitely would do himself a favor by being patient and observe what is going on from now.
P!
SOYBEAN OIL UPDATEI was slightly early. Here is the entry.
If you could be in love with a set-up, this is love.
THIS WILL BE A MONSTER TRADE
CBoT Soybeans long play opportunity with a tight stopSoybeans:
Price made a strong move to the downside of some 2.5% after which it revered leaving a relatively long bottom tail for the daily candle. Price reached our target a bit earlier than we would have expected which is not a problem as such but the structure of the latest move is a problem.
Thus far we stick too our earlier casus in which we see price make a 20/30% swing up from here but we want to see the price reversal already during Monday/Tuesday failing which we will probably have to reconsider our bull ride bias. A long play opportunity is there at the opening but with tight stop.
Soybeans CBoT stopped out and waiting for a long play set up nowSoybeans:
Price corrected up during the first half of the past week and still has to complete its move down a bit further to the 10/9.75 region where we expect price to reverse and make a move up of 20%. Traders who entertained the short play last week should have been stopped out and if not their stops were not tight enough so they are more rather lucky than smart.
We expect price to touch our targeted level during the coming week from where a long play can be entertained with an upswing potential of 20/25% in price.
Soybean - A Descending Triangle PatternLe'ts take a look at the Soybean Futures market by examining its 2hr chart. What do we see:
- Price has consolidated in a descending triangle.
- Support @1130 running flat
- Resistance is the downtrend line.
- A break out of either way will tell us about its next going direction.
A descending triangle is usually a continuation pattern so here the upside is favored as Soybean price is bullish in daily and weekly chart. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns.
Stay Tuned.
Weighted Basket of 5 Agri Commoditeis - Hyperinflation Coming*EDIT in text quote on left of chart - *Synchronicity in between
I have created an equally weighted portfolio of 5 sustenance based commodities including Soybean, Soybean Oil, Sugar, Wheat, and Maize (continuous fwd contracts). This is an update to the first chart I have published (rough rice) which isn't updating for some reason but if you see the RR1! graph on another website you will see that my analysis is 100% on point so far and even identifies exact msp level prior to breakout. I am expecting sustenance based commodity hyperinflation in the coming years as we enter a macroeconomic environment that the economics textbooks have never described. The money manager commitment data points to breakout, technicals show clear range suppression and evident accumulation pointing to impeding breakout. Global trade statistics are abysmal, statistics of subprime/consumer debt/corporate debt delinquencies are abysmal, PE ratios of leading equity markets are abysmal. I do not wish for this to happen because this will affect billions of people but this is most likely what is going to happen. Best of luck.
Soybean (ZS) Testing Downchannel/Descending Wedge ResistanceAfter a two week rally, soybean (ZS) is now bumping into downchannel/descending wedge resistance on the weekly chart, which coincides roughly with the 1000 psychologically key resistance level. Weekly RSI and Stochastics are in rally mode, while the MACD which a few weeks back appeared ready for a negative crossover has strengthened again and is sloping up now.
For my multiple timeframe analysis on ZS, feel free to visit: tradablepatterns.com
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