Soybeanmeal
January Soybean Meal Wedging upJan 2017 Soybean Meal is creating a wedge up scenario but also locked in a price channel. Look for more upside to complete Butterfly Pattern. There is also a possible double top rejection happening here from price action back in Oct 27 & 28, and seasonal trends show futures starting to slide lower most years.
Soybean Meal and Soybeans ready for bullish push?On weekly chart, it looks like Soybean Meal is ready to make a push higher. Could we see it challenge the highs of last June?
CBoT SoybeanmealSoybeanmeal:
Price opened the week with a gap down and lost almost 10% in three sessions after which it recovered a bit on Friday but only after putting a new recent low of the week on the cart. Our expectation that price would first make one more move up did not materialize so no short play opportunity could be made use of. The waiting now is for the 345 level later this month to see whether we can entertain a long play from there.
Soyabeanmeal CBoT: missed the short entry and now waitingSoybeanmeal:
Price did not perform as we were expecting last week and lost its support of the lower line of the ascending price channel after which it broke out to the downside already early in the week. We believe that wave (3) has been competed and that price will now perform its corrective wave down to the 340 region. We missed a possible short play and jumping on this wave here and now would be too risky as our stop level is at 406 which is some 8% above the current level which is not acceptable as possible loss. If and when price would perform a corrective move up during the coming week to the 395/400 level traders could still consider a short play that would risk a 2.5% loss in price with a stop at 406. We favor price to move to the 350/340 level from here during the coming 3-5 weeks from where we will see whether a long play becomes opportune indeed. Nothing to be done for now.
Soybeanmeal CBoT waiting for a short play opportunity Soybeanmeal:
Price develops very similar to the soybean price. Price reached the lower end of a very steep and rather narrow ascending price channel and bounced up during Friday's session. The candle to the day was a Bullish Engulfing candle which is a reliable reversal pattern. We are looking for price to move up during the coming 5-10 sessions to the upper boundary of the price channel from where a short play can be considered.
Soybeanmeal CBoTSoybeanmeal:
Price has bee trading extensively beyond our price target and could well be at the end of its current wave. We see mixed and contradictory signs in the development of this chart and want to see a clearer picture develop before taking any action. The upward potential from here obviously is very limited so that is not an option to consider at all but at the same time the timing for a short play could be not for now.
Price has been moving within the ascending wedge from where, as per the rules of TA, it should break our to the downside. At the same time we see a ending diagonal developing during the past 6 to 8 session which, as per same TA rules, is a continuation pattern. There is a complete wave count possible as per the EW rules and principles but that does not mean that the EW pattern is complete indeed.
We want to see what happens next on this chart and will go into a 'wait-and-see' mode until we see a clear picture.
Soybeanmeal CBoT in neutral modeSoybeanmeal:
Price made a another move up to a new high which could be an indication that even higher highs want to be put on this chart. Our target has been reached already at some 8-10% lower level than what is being traded today but rather than regretting having 'missed' the last dime we count our blessings that we had a good ride on this wave.
The current development of this chart is really not giving us any solid handhold to decide entertaining a short play from here. We first want to see that a tradable top is in this chart and only after that we will seek for a comfortable entry point. Nothing to be done for us here and now.
Soybeanmeal CBoTSoybeanmeal:
Price made again a new high during the week which, as per the rules of engagement, could well be a sign that it wants to go even hight. The pattern that price drew during the past 3 trading days could be a reversal pattern. The RSI is in oversold area but is not diverting with price and the MACD is not in divergence either.
There are too many contradictory signs in this chart for time being. We believe that there is a fair chance that price will start making a solid move down during next week but to 'believe' is not a reason to take a position. We stay away from this market right now and wait until we see a clearer picture.
Soybeanmeal CBoTSoybeanmeal:
Price has reached our target during the past week and showed a very strong performance during Friday's session. Price made a 50% advance in just 6 weeks (!) and we believe it is time for price to make sizeable move to the downside from here. However, as long as we do not see a reversal pattern being drawn on the chart we will have to wait for an even more overbought status. The sign goes on 'neutral' from here and now and we are going to wait for a short trade set-up.
Soybeanmeal CBoT N16Soybeanmeal:
Price practically reached our target already during the past week which came earlier than what we expected. The development of the price move of the past week suggests that there could well be one more swing up in this chart before price will start a sizeable decline again. We would like to see a close of some 10 dollars above the current levels during the coming week before we start looking for a short-term bear scenario.
Soybeanmeal Long PlayPrice did not make the corrective move down to 315/305 last week as was preferred by us but rather traded a sideways pattern between, roughly, 336 and 350. This price moves very much like the soybean price which is not so uncommon. We are adjusting our short term bias a bit and we are now looking for a move further up from here although we do not want to exclude a test of last week's low one more time before price will start trading up next week.
We are putting our price target at around the 370/375 latest by the end of May with is some 8-10 percent up from the current level.
RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016
Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future.
Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com
Soybeanmeal in corrective move downSoybeanmeal:
Price has made an impressive rally up during most of April and its indicators like RSI and MACD have reached oversold area (not displayed on the chart). There is a solid supportive level at around the 300 mark which is about 10% down from the currently traded price. We favour the theory that price has completed its B of (4) and that price is now at the start of C which should take price, preferably, below 308 after which there is room for the next hike up. However, price could be developing an 'expanded flat' here in which case price would probably not trade below 315 before it reverses back up again.
In any case we favour a corrective move down from here to the 315/305 level during first half of next week from where we favour a reverse for completion of a (5) and with a target of at least 350 during late May or early June. On step at the time however and let's first see how next week goes.
