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Soybeans

Week 6: ZSH2021 Price is in the sell areaFollowing up last week analysis, the price will be visiting Supply area prior going down. My personal Sell Order will be at $1,417 (it depends on the price action in the next 2-3 H4 candles, I may short it early too). The stop loss will be at $1,438 (New Higher High) and our Take Profit will be quite low (at least $1,275). The simple sign will be at $1,417 area, if the body size of the candles are not prominently bullish; and there is a formation of Lower High (LH); I will go at whole-nine-yard to short the market. Just kidding, money management is still important, perhaps 10% to 20% equity to short this opportunity.
CBOT:ZSH2021Short
by machintose
3
Week 05: ZSH2021 Short Term BullishOn H4, the price has broken the down trend channel and making a Higher High. From 27 January to date, the price movement is forming another flag on the higher band; also, to add some confluences, if we observed the Price Action on the candle stick, there were some rejection to go down. Based on the above, I think the price will pick up some liquidity at $1,417 area prior going down. Short term (1-2 days) will be bullish as we are still in bullish flag area.
CBOT:ZSH2021Long
by machintose
2
Week 04: ZSH 2021 We are entering a ranging weekLet's keep it short, this week the price will be in ranging mode. The range is between $1,338 to $1,280. If you have shorted earlier, you can take profit some of your positions and keep some until it hits full TP at $1,280. If you are a speculator, now it is a good time to Long (buy) the market, but you must exit at $1,338 area; then switch to Short the market. In general, when the market is in ranging, we can scalp it Up and Down. Trade wisely, Trend is your friend.
CBOT:ZSH2021
by machintose
4
Week 02: ZSH 2021 Uptrend Channel, waiting for a breakApology for the late post. Week 02 for ZSH 2021 is still bullish looking. Yesterday on H1, we can see the price movement candle by candle that there were no sign of weakness. In the last hour of market, it created a strong rejection and buyer jumped in with a significant momentum. Let's see on the overall picture in H4, the movement is still within the Uptrend Channel, we only can short the market when we see a break at $1,370 level. As at I wrote this, from H4 down to M5; there are still no sign of Seller coming to the market. Buyer is still dominating the market, be cautious if you plan to long the market. No trade call for this week. -SatayFX
CBOT:ZSH2021
by machintose
Agricultural Commodities Ripping! Food Prices to Rise in 2021!Ending my posts of major themes to look for in 2021, I want to end with the agricultural commodities. Particularly Corn, Wheat and Soybeans. The agricultural commodities are some of my favorite assets to trade, and I do not think many people pay too much attention to them. I focus on the three mentioned above, but you can also trade sugar, coffee, cocoa, orange juice (yes seriously), cattle, hogs, and pork bellies to name a few more. Let me give you a quick run down on the ag commodities. Corn is the most traded agricultural commodity, and is an important food source for both humans and animals. What makes Corn important is that it can be grown in a variety of climates and conditions, unlike the other agricultural commodities. Other uses include starches, corn oil and fuel ethanol. According to my handy dandy commodity handbook, approximately 35 million hectares are used exclusively for corn production world wide. Just as Oil has different qualities (Brent, West Texas, Canadian West etc), Corn does as well. There are different grades but the most important are high grade number 2 corn and number 3 yellow corn. The futures ticker for corn contracts is ZC. The top 5 producers of Corn in the world are: The United States, China, Brazil, Mexico and India (Canada makes it in 9th place). Corn has had an amazing run since June. We will get to the why when at the end of this post, but pay attention to the commodity charts. These are all going to be LONG term weekly charts. You can see that Corn is breaking out, and in fact, will confirm a breakout with this weeks close, which occurs today. Lot of room higher to go in 2021. The breakout zone will be our support, and as long as we remain above, Corn moves higher. Wheat is the second most produced agricultural commodity. Rice comes in at third for those that are interested. No country necessarily dominates wheat production a la Saudi Arabia with Oil and Kazakhstan with Uranium. China, India, Russia, the United States, and France produce the most wheat in the millions of tons. Canada, Australia, Germany, Pakistan, and Ukraine also boast significant production. The future contract ticker for Wheat is ZW. Wheat on the weekly is setting up to breakout. Just like Corn, we would confirm a breakout on the weekly chart by the end of today. Finally, Soybeans. Perhaps the more ‘mainstream’ financial media agricultural commodity that has seen plenty of coverage due to the US-China trade deal. Part of the phase 1 deal was for China to increase their purchases of US Soybeans. I am focusing on the the whole soybean, but most soybeans are used for soybean oil and soybean meal. The United States dominates the Soybean market, composing 50% of the total global production. Brazil comes in second at around 20%. Many analysts predicted Brazil to be the big winner in a US-China trade war spat, as China could look to Brazil for more Soybean exports. The futures contract for Soybeans is ZS. Let’s take a look at the other traded forms of soybeans which have their own futures ticker. Soybean Oil is a vegetable oil and is one of the most used culinary oil in the world. Soybean Oil is also popular as a biodiesel. Believe it or not, but there are cars that have engines which can convert from regular diesel to Soybean Oil during production. They are known as ‘frybrids’. The futures ticker for Soybean Oil is ZL. Soybean Meal is a quick one. Whatever is left from the extraction of Soybeans into Soybean Oil can be converted into Soybean Meal. This is used for high-protein, high-energy food for feedstock for cattle, hogs, and poultry. The futures contract for Soybean Meal is ZM. Soybeans have been ripping in 2020. Again, China demand and the US-China Trade war headlines play a large part, but there was some other factors which we will discuss soon. Just like Corn and Wheat, Soybeans is set to confirm yet another breakout with a weekly candle close today. The agricultural commodities do not get the attention they deserve, and as you can see, they have made huge moves. For traders, they present a great trade opportunity due to the volatility, but also add on some more risk. Consider at least watching them if you do not want to trade them. M readers know I am extremely bullish on the agricultural commodities and agriculture in general. Jim Rogers is the one who got me excited about this sector. His argument is that most young people do not want to become farmers anymore, and that the average age of farmers is well above 60. Governments may need to create larger incentives to get young people to take up farming. I see some issues and challenges for agriculture, but will be rectified by human ingenuity. The first issue is soil. A lot of soil sucks due to the pesticides and other chemicals we use. If the soil is not great, the crop will not have the full dose of nutrients and could lead to health issues down the road. As many of you are aware, the organic food movement is a huge trend, and will grow year by year. Soil replenishment will be big. I have head some things in the past about zinc being used to replenish soil, particularly in California. Phosphorus and Potash also come in mind. In fact, some foresee a phosphorus faming crisis. A big issue for farming has been climate change. Obviously farming is cyclical. Winter has been lingering longer, especially on the East Coast. Farmers tend to await for certain birds to return to let them know Spring is here and it is time to plant crops. But Spring has been coming later while Winter lingers longer. Climate change will continue to disrupt agriculture and this could lead to a shortage of crops. In fact, this is the primary reason for the spike in Corn and Soybeans this year. Iowa is where the majority of these crops are grown in the US. Millions of acres were destroyed due to the storm in Iowa in August. This has led to spikes in agricultural commodities, and some say, points to a food crisis in 2021. Finally, something not many people consider are the ramifications of green energy. This info I learned from Peter Zeihan’s book, “Disunited Nations“. Highly recommended for anyone with an interest in geopolitics and where the world is going in the future. Green energy is coming. We all know it. Governments will be spending a lot for green infrastructure. Due to the fiscal policy required to combat covid, taxes need to go up. The best way is through green taxes because they know the people will not complain. Government will say these taxes are going to be used for green infrastructure which will aid in an economic recovery and creating jobs. The issue, as Mr. Zeihan states, is that solar panels and wind turbines need to be put in areas that are very sunny and/or windy. These areas tend to be where the best agricultural land is situated. So nations would have to sacrifice agriculture for energy. In his book, Zeihan states that there only a few nations which can come out as winners in this predicament. China is not one of them. Do not panic, a lot of these issues can be remedied. In house and Greenhouse farming can be a way to cope with the effects of climate change and unpredictable weather patterns. Vertical integrated farming can be a solution to allow for green energy infrastructure to be built in the best agriculture lands, and can also be a solution for nations that do not have much agricultural lands. So yes there will be issues, but human ingenuity will get us through it. The question is how long will it take? I want to end of with Covid. It seems we are setting up for a food crisis next year. Tons of articles about supply chain disruptions due to covid and worsening food insecurity for many nations. If this winter turns out to be a dark winter due to covid cases, the likelihood of empty shelves increases. A lot of this could also have an impact on the prices of agricultural commodities. Canada is already preparing for this. In Canada’s Food Price Report 2021, bread, meat and vegetable prices are set to rise between 3-5% in 2021. The average Canadian family will pay up to $700 more for food in 2021. The agricultural charts are pointing to higher food prices. Covid and Climate will have impacts, and hence why I am bullish on this sector going forward.
OANDA:CORNUSDLong
by Uncharted-FX
Week 50: Short Opportunity on ZSF 2021Weekly analysis for ZSF2021 Week 50: 07 December to 11 December 2020 Following up last week analysis, the Resistant level at $1,200 remained in tact and our key level at $1,161 had been penetrated. Therefore, now we are looking to sell as the direction had changed. Here is my personal trade call for this week : Short now or Sell Stop at $1,154.00 Stop Loss (SL) is at $1,175.00 Take Profit (TP) is at $1,083.00 It gives us 3.47R Disclaimer : The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite. If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee. As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
CBOT:ZSF2021Short
by machintose
3
Soybeans: Trending up, buy on dips...I think we have a nice setup to buy the dip in Soybean futures or using $SOYB. It's a rather big contract, so keep that in mind if trading futures. There's a long term trend signal active, for many more months still, so any dip is a buy if you're patient enough. I highlight a trend that reached its peak in the daily timeframe here, so, a retracement entry is likely to materialize in the coming days and weeks. Keep an eye on it, don't miss out on the big gains to be had in this market. As @timwest pointed out, fundamentals for Soybeans and the long term chart are ridiculously bullish now, so, it is going to be very hard to hold on to positions for long enough to reap the benefits, and specially hard to join the trend for most people. The droughts in Brazil are affecting crops, and there's a huge demand from China, since the soybean producing regions were affected by floods recently, there's also a big need for soybeans to produce pork in South America, like the huge farms they are setting up in the South of Argentina. As a bonus, if the US wants to hurt China, their best bet is to make the food prices go up, specially Soybeans. They had been buying commodities for cheap for a long time until now. That might be changing already, and considering the expectations I have of rising inflation and interest rates, in a post Pandemic world, this is further fuel for the fire in this rally here. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by IvanLabrie
3
Week 49: ZSF 2021 Still bullishWeekly analysis for ZSF2021 Week 49: 30 November to 04 December 2020 Here is the playbook for Week 49, overall it is still Bullish. (a) Currently on H4, the price is forming a bullish flag with $12,000 is the current Resistance Level. (b) It may not be a straight forward bullish; the real key level is at $11,161.50 (area). What does this mean? (1) If the price make a clean break on $12,000 then we put a Buy Limit at $12,000 area (2) If the price just make a shy break on $12,000 level, then we are expecting either a False Breakout or another price compression. (3) If the price cannot break $12,000 it is still Bullish, don't get trapped by thinking that the trend has changed. The direction is only changing after the price enters $11,161.50 and below. Therefore, overall this week is still bullish bias; take a rational decision, don't get emotion involved. Disclaimer : The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite. If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee. As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
CBOT:ZSF2021Long
by machintose
Week 48: ZSF 2021 No sign of weakness, key level is at $1,150Weekly analysis for ZSF2021 Week 48: 23 to 27 November 2021 From 1st June 2020 until today, Soybean prices has been very (strong) bullish, especially in November. On the weekly Time Frame we can spot the decision level is at $1,150, however from the current price is still quite far. There is no sign of reversal yet, even on Daily chart, momentum still slower, sporadic with some keen buyers trying to push the price higher. Practically we have not seen any strong Sellers come to intervene, perhaps just like us and other traders, we just wait and see on how high the price will go. It is wiser to wait, observe and we enter when there is a firm confirmation on the price. No trade call this week, risky to long and not wise to short now. Stay Calm and enjoy the Black Friday shopping. Disclaimer : The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite. If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee. As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
CBOT:ZSF2021
by machintose
Week 47: ZSF 2021 Short OpportunityWeekly analysis for ZSF2021 Week 47: 16 to 20 November 2021 After a long rally, retracement was formed (in a mini down trend channel) and it broke to fill the Supply Zone. There two ways to trade this formation: (a) Aggressive Mode Solely based on the Price Action and we can reap better Risk Reward Ratio by sacrificing a small risk. Sell Limit at $1,153 Stop Loss at $1,160 Take Profit at $1,124 RR = 4.14R (b) Conservative Mode We wait for the confirmation to enter, it is a very safe trade with a decent ratio. Sell Stop at $1,139 Stop Loss at $1,152 Take Profit at $1,124 RR = 1.31R Use your own judgement and risk factor to decide. My personal opinion, this week ZS will have a rather big movement and from there it will be many ranging days ahead. If you are familiar with "Cancan Setup", you may know what I am referring to. Disclaimer : The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite. If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee. As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
CBOT:ZSF2021Short
by machintose
Week 46: ZSF 2021 Buy at retest levelWeekly analysis for ZSF2021 Week 46: 09 to 13 November 2021 Market was pushing the price higher and made a new Higher High last week. The Head and Shoulder formation was not happening, on Friday the momentum was slower and today not much happening too in Asian session. Overall trend is still bullish, but don't jump to the band wagon now; we better wait at a retest level to long. My personal trade call for this week : Buy Limit at $1,084 Stop Loss at $1,061 Take Profit at $1,130 RR = 1.92R Special note : As there is no reference on the Take Profit, we do not know how bullish it will be. My advise, watch for the Price Action in H1 and H4; they will give you an early warning whether to close manually or let it ride. If I happen to watch it, I will update it here on comment section. Disclaimer : The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite. If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee. As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
CBOT:ZSF2021Long
by machintose
3
Week 45: ZSF 2021 Consolidation PhaseWeekly analysis for ZSF2021 Week 45: 02 to 06 November 2021 Overall, this week I am very bearish bias. There are two spots of level which give us a good profit ratio: (1) Sell Limit at $1,065 (2) Sell Stop at $1,035 There is no trade call today (this week), just a few guidelines: a. If you are shorting now or still haven't closed your trade from last week position, the best Take Profit level is at $1,036 b. If you are looking to sell, wait for the price to breach $1,035 or bounce to $1,065 or split your lot size with heavy on top. c. Stop Loss is at $1,067 (close all your short positions if the price is closed at this level or higher) d. Take Profit is at $1,000 e. Last advise, keep in mind that now the price is forming the head, it needs to form the right shoulder before going down. Disclaimer: The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite. If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee. As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
CBOT:ZSF2021Short
by machintose