Long SoybeansHi guys ! I post a trading idea for long positions at ZS1! . Recent WASDE report had a price projection for soybeans for 2019 about 900-910. As wee see also in the recent political scene trade war talks at G20 there is a good possibility to go far beyond as from 910. From technical analysis view at the monthly chart is long with target 1056 , RSI is tend to swing to upper levels so I think is a good long signal and ADX now is tending to get a direction which is a further high price. Hope you find it usefull !
Soybeans
Soybean Futures Momentum BearishThis week price closed with strong bearish momentum after hitting the reversal zone.
With production estimated up, and uncertainty with China trade, the bearish momentum may push further to 854 - 820 level in coming weeks.
Looking to complete the downward range to -27.2% level of the weekly Fibonacci retracement range.
Targest hit. Wait for confirmation on breakout points.Both TP = 30.14 and 29.44 hit as the previous bearish Channel aggressively broke earlier and met the targets much earlier than I expected. Soybean Oil has now entered a new Channel Down on 1D, which is coming off a Lower High (hence Highs/Lows = 0, RSI = 51.334). We now need to wait for confirmation from the two break-out points (illustrated by the circles). If the upper point breaks then we will go long (TP = 28.99 and 29.44). If the lower point breaks then we will go short (TP = 26.51).
Wheat, Soybeans, and CornWhy Wheat and why now. What about Soybeans and Corn.
Looking across the Ags, it seems that Wheat is enjoying the most upside. Why is this. In keeping with my focus on the DMI and ADX, I think you’d have start by looking at the monthly chart of the 3. One of the key tenants of DMI/ADX is that best trades seem to originate when the ADX is below 20 for an extended period of time. And, for Wheat, that has been since June of 2013. Since then, it has moved between a couple of lines and for the most part, remaining below the 13 period EMA of the high.
As an aside, in my previous articles, I used EMA’s on the close of price but have moved to a 13EMA on high, 26EMA on low and 20EMA on close with the intent to use them as a channel for pullbacks based of ADX action.
June of last year, the downtrend line was sharply broken but before that, the DMI made a significant move when the +/-DI swapped. Although this had happened several time during the past 4 years, what eventually became important is that the low of this candle was never broken while the high was continually tested and broken with the last time starting the recent uptrend. Also, note that during this time that the +DMI continued to make higher highs will not making lower lows. With the ADX moving above 20 in May of this year, a strong signal was given that the market was ready to move up.
Now, consider the same discussion for ]Soybeans :
Notice the size of the candle that caused the last swap. I’ve included a possible consolidation pattern.
And for Corn :
With Corn the interesting thing on recent action is that the DI’s changed dominance but did so where the swap was to -DI but with a green candle. I don’t see this too often but seems to give mixed signals.
CBOT Soybean near Swing low of Weekly ChartPrice rebounding from Fibonacci -27.2% level last week and may turn bullish for a while before hitting the 0.0% of the range.
CBOT Soybean near Swing low of Weekly ChartPrice rebounding from Fibonacci -27.2% level last week and may turn bullish for a while before hitting the 0.0% of the range.
Lean Hogs levels - Factoring in the quote below, I think a Retracement of the move we saw, is in order.
- Also, given the historic price action a Retracement does seem likely.
Great little quote from some Forbes article:
"According to a United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, feeding China’s steadily increasing livestock population is a growing challenge. It takes about 3 kilograms of feed to produce each kilogram of meat. As a result, the USDA predicts China’s combined use of soy meal and corn 0.72% for animal feed will rise from 200 'mmt to more than 300 'mmt over the 10-year projection period.
Much of this feed grain must be imported. The USDA expects China’s soybean -0.30% imports to reach over 70% of global soybean -0.30% imports by 2024. It also anticipates that China will account for 40% of the rise in global corn 0.72% trade over the coming decade."
The counter argument could be summed up best by the wall street journal article: www.wsj.com
Soybeans will go upIt was long time never this low. In 2008 when the market collapsed it was just a bit shorter.
In my opinion it will go up safely until 1000 mark because market love that kind of full numbers.
Risk to Reward is excellent also the market did a retrace from the bottom level indicating that the buyers are now in control.
Soy Crush Spread at its EXTREMEKeep an eye on this extraordinary extreme in the soy crush spread. This spread includes 3 futures: soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal and to be exactly now it is time to sell this spread!
What do you need to do to sell this spread?
To sell this spread you have to make 3 transactions:
BUY 1 soybeans contract
SELL 1 soybean oil contract
SELL 1 soybean meal contract
Why do I see numbers in front of the chart symbols?
You can see different numbers in front of the contracts like "2.2*ZM1!+11*ZL1!-ZS1!" because of the different multipliers in the futures contracts.
Of course, you also make this trade with CFDs, in this particular case you need to have positions sizes with a similar nominal value
Soybeans /ZS - Short Premium - Short straddle into high IVRSoybeans are offering a short premium opportunity as price perhaps starts making a bit of a floor. I have sold a straddle at 840 w/ 45 DTE for a maximum profit of $2500. A few things made this an attractive trade such as the high implied volatility and price having reached a key support level where I hope price stays buoyed while I run out the clock and collect options premium. The high implied volatility has allowed me to sell a straddle that has a break even range of $100 or greater than 10% of the total value of the underlying which makes me feel comfortable with the risk/reward of this trade.