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Soybeans

Soybeans Drift Lower Soybeans Technicals (May) May soybean futures attempted to hold ground yesterday, but it lacked conviction. Prices are giving back those gains in today’s trade. 1155-1160 is the first resistance pocket the Bulls need to overcome to help spark a bigger relief rally. A failure to do so keeps the potential for new lows alive and well. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1155-1160, 1170-1175 Pivot: 1150 Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2**** Fund Positioning Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down that is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

by Blue_Line_Futures

Soybeans Under Pressure Soybeans Technicals (May) May soybean futures broke back below support yesterday which accelerated the selling pressure and keeps the door open for a retest of the February lows in play, that comes in from 1128 1/2-1133 1/2. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1155-1160***, 1170-1175*** Pivot: 1150 Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2**** Fund Positioning Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down that is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

by Blue_Line_Futures

Soybeans will take off with inflation I see a sharp ramp up in commodities after Powell's presser on Friday when the inflation metrics come out and he sends a Dovish message (not hawkish enough). The dollar will end up turning back up this summer so I see this upward trend momentarily until after the FED goes in with CBDC's and then commodities will take off. At that point I doubt stocks will exist so I would just caution you to buy freeze-dried food and some precious metals because a Global Depression is coming.

Long

by EmptyEternity

SOYBEANS Excellent buy opportunity.Soybeans (ZS1!) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since early 2023 just last week, it almost hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line). So far the price has reacted with a minor rebound, while the 1D RSI has been on a major Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows). This is the best buy signal since the May 31 2023 bottom where again after an RSI Bullish Divergence, the price rebounded aggressively to the 0.618 Fib on a +12.56% rally. So far within this long-term Channel Down, we have had similar rebounds of +12.56%, +14.26% and +11.86%. Assuming the minimum of +11.86%, we are setting a Target on Soybeans at 1263'5, which may almost make contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the natural technical Resistance since April 24 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇

Long

Descending Wedge & Bullish Divergence on March Soybeans Fundamental Outlook: There’s no beating around the bush - the fundamental outlook for soybeans is bearish. Global ending stocks are now at all time highs per the last WASDE report, and export demand for U.S. soybeans has slowed considerably - currently down around 19% year-over-year. As South American harvest progresses, the outlook of the Brazilian soybean crop has also improved. Talking Technicals: Despite the bearish fundamental outlook - the descending wedge, bullish divergence on 14-day RSI, and declining volume profile presents a bullish setup. Managed money funds remain aggressively short - holding a net-short position greater than 150,000 contracts across futures and options on soybeans. An upside breakout could result in short-covering, ultimately propelling prices higher in the near-term. Descending wedge patterns typically see sharp, upside breakouts which would be akin to the price action observed in a short-covering rally. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Long

by Blue_Line_Futures

Where is the bottom for soybeans? Soybean futures are off to a rough start in 2024. In the first week of trading, March soybeans were down nearly 42 cents on the back of beneficial rains sweeping Central Brazil. Selling pressure permeated into Monday’s session as well, with soybeans trading down into the mid 1230’s. So, the question now becomes, will March soybeans make new contract lows? Fundamental Snapshot : Monday’s lower price action is not all that surprising considering U.S. export inspections for soybeans were reported at 675k metric tons - below average trade estimates. Meanwhile, Brazil has been exporting both corn and soybeans at record paces each of the past two years, and is expected to have a record or near-record soybean crop this year as well. Wednesday, CONAB will release data pertaining to their estimations of corn and soybeans. Currently, they are less optimistic about the state of the Brazilian soybean crop than the USDA, and USDA will release their World Agricultural Supply and Demand Expectations report on Friday. If we see sweeping downward adjustments to production estimates from both CONAB and USDA, it may help soybeans find a bottom. However, if the market is disappointed in the data released this week, we may see soybeans test 1200 sooner rather than later. Technical Outlook : After last week’s precipitous drop, it was surprising that March beans failed to enter oversold territory. However, it did not take long to break into OS territory on Monday’s session. The head-and-shoulders pattern that’s developed over the past fiscal quarter has a difference of approximately $1.20/bu, which puts an operative price target between 1198 and 1208. That also happens to be the 78.6% retracement level between the mid-June lows and late-July highs. Markets can stay in overbought/oversold territory for extended periods of time, so if data disappoints this week, we may see the head-and-shoulders reach its price target. However, a positive reception to fundamental data this week may serve as a launching pad for soybeans to start moving higher. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

by Blue_Line_Futures

Soybean Futures almost formed a bullish pattern; 1550 then 1770 Weekly chart, Soybean Futures almost formed a bullish chart pattern - Descending Wedge. After crossing resistance 2 line and line 1, the target will be 1550 then 1770 The other side probability is activated by breaking down support line 1. However, support line 2 can be a strong barrier and force a price rebounding.

Long

🌱 Soybean Update 🆕Fundamental Data👇 🌱Soybean Marketing Year Progress (23/24) ▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░ 27.62% Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎 1,108,864 Metric Tons ⬇️ 464,425 Metric Tons week vs. last week ⬇️ 1,120,580 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year ⬇️ 800,246 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week Export Sales🗺️🫰 32,399,826 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year) ⬇️ 4,898,256 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊 Bullish 🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 24% Neutral 🟫🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 27% Bearish 🟥🟥🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 44% Fund Net Position💰 Chicago Soybeans: +36,633 Contracts (Position as of 12/05) Funds have been reducing their net long position 3 weeks in a row Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕 🔴 Funds have been reducing their net long position, 3 weeks in a row 🔴/🟢 Export interest for US Soybeans is considerably weak in comparison to previous marketing years, but has improved recently 🔴 The spread between January-March futures continues to show weakness (carry is not bullish) 🟢 Brazilian Soybean production decreased to 161 MMT (USDA) and 160.177 MMT (CONAB) Commentary & Technicals💹 *None this week* Watch the following levels 👇 🟢 Upside Targets: 13.51, 13.89, 13.98 🔴 Downside Targets: 12.92, 12.705, 12.66 Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️ This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.

Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean Prices Soybean prices have been on a rollercoaster fuelled by turbulence over the last month amid elevated weather concerns, changing production yields, and geopolitical upheavals affecting prices. Winters are vital for bean traders. This paper delves into the various forces at play to guide traders and portfolio managers to navigate through the rough weather. Favourable weather combined tail winds for Soybean harvests plus weakness in destination markets are setting the ground for bearishness in bean prices. A short position in CME Soybean futures can be used to manage risk. US SOYBEAN HARVEST RESULTS Soybean harvest in the US has concluded providing a more certain supply outlook for the ongoing marketing year. Next Soybean harvest will take place in March-June in South America. Until then, current inventories will have to meet the demand. As per USDA update , Soy harvesting in the US is 90% complete. Yields for the 2023/2024 marketing year were updated to 49.9 bushels/acre in the November WASDE report compared to 49.6 bushels/acre in the October report. This resulted in an upward revision to the production and ending stocks figures as well since the consumption forecast remained unchanged. A similar update was reported by USDA in the global soybean outlook which suggested that global soybean production would be marginally higher. Despite the upward revisions, the US production figures represent a YoY decline of 4 million MT (-3.3%). The upward revision then, provides a larger buffer to account for potentially higher consumption. This is vital because bean inventory balances in the US this year are tighter than the previous two years. US Ending stocks are forecast to be 6.68 million MT compared to 7.3 million MT last year. As a result, although the upward revision expanded the buffer, it is quite narrow which could exacerbate a shortage in case consumption edges higher. SEASONAL TRENDS As highlighted by Mint in a previous paper , seasonal trends in Soybean futures are affected by harvest. During harvest, prices decline before recovering post-harvest as inventories are depleted. However, the seasonal trend is distinct during El Niño years where returns underperform the usual average, especially in December-January. BRAZIL WEATHER CONCERNS LIFTED Soybean markets are heavily influenced by weather in Brazil. Hotter than expected weather and erratic precipitation raised concerns for Brazilian crops which drove Soybean prices higher over the past month. Brazil experienced a strong heat wave last month which has a negative effect on crops. Weather effects on crop yields are most pronounced during the early stages of growth. However, weather is now set to improve as weather forecasts suggest the arrival of rains and milder temperatures ahead. Both are positive for the bean crop. Still, higher-than-expected precipitation remains a concern for the crop. As highlighted by University of Delaware , too much rainfall during the planting stage can lead to significant yield reduction. Source: USDA Brazil is the largest producer of Soybean and its harvest had been expanding rapidly over the past three years. This had previously led to oversupply concerns in global markets, exacerbated by a low demand environment in the largest soybean consumer China. Though consumption in China is forecast to increase YoY, it will not be enough to match the increase in global production (especially in Brazil) per the latest WASDE estimates . Net effect is larger ending stocks globally which is bearish for Soybean prices. EL NIÑO UPDATE In this El Niño year, unexpected weather pose significant concerns as it deviates from the anticipated impact on soybean crops outlined in our previous paper . While El Niño typically brings favourable conditions, such as increased rainfall and mild weather leading to a 3.5% higher soybean yield on average. Brazil is experiencing unexpectedly warm weather and low precipitation, diverging from the usual patterns. The unpredictability of these conditions amplifies their potential impact on prices compared to previously expected El Niño effects. Source - NOAA El Niño continues to evolve adversely as Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has reached its highest level since 2016. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) at Niño 3.4 is another indicator that has reached an all-time-high. Source - NOAA SIGNAL FROM SOYBEAN FUTURES MARKET Technical signals suggest a bearish trend in bean futures. Front month bean contract was on an upward trend since mid-October. The front month contract tested but failed to pass a key pivot resistance level of 1,381 USc/bushel. Price has since declined 5% and points to a reversal as the Moving Averages close to forming a bearish crossover. Asset managers switched from net short to net long positioning over the past month. However, over the last 2 weeks, asset managers have reduced net long positioning by 20k contracts. Options markets point to bearishness as participants are positioned for Soybean price to decline with a P/C ratio of 1.31 which suggests more bearish bets than bullish ones. Further, bearish bets have increased sharply over the past week with the largest increase in puts on the April monthly contract and December monthly contract. Moreover, participants have reduced call OI on the front-month December contract. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP With the overhang of negative weather in Brazil lifted, bean prices are likely to decline and pare gains from the past month due to a weak demand environment. Market metrics also suggest a bearish trend. To gain exposure, investors can deploy a short position on Soybean futures expiring in Feb ( ZSH2024 ). CME Soybean futures expiring in March require a maintenance margin of USD 2,800 (as of December 4th) and provide exposure to 5000 bushels. Entry: USc 1,336 Target: USc 1,272.25 Stop Loss: USc 1,381 Profit at Target: USD 3,187 Loss at Stop: USD 2,250 Reward/Risk: 1.42x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.

Short

by mintdotfinance

🌱 Soybean Technical Analysis (GrainStats)Soybean Fundamentals ( CBOT:ZSF2024 ) Soybean Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌱 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░ 85% Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎 1,890,227 Metric Tons ⬇️ 735,466 Metric Tons week vs. last week ⬇️ 1,030,191 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year ⬇️ 372,103 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-year average Export Sales 22,259,064 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year) ⬇️ 8,264,993 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year Noteworthy News / Themes 🟢 Crush margins have re-bounded significantly due to the rally in Soybean Meal 🔴 It is still notably dry in Argentina and planting should be starting in full swing 🟢 US River levels have improved on the Mississippi river (barge freight down) Soybean Technicals Overall quite the sideways market with conflicting trends - one up and one down, with an inflection point coming up soon. Regardless, from a technical point of view, there is no trade in the middle of the range until any of the following levels get breached.👇 🟢 Upside Target: 13.31 🔴 Downside Targets: 12.97, 12.70

Updated

10 year Bean Projection (potentially)10yr Corn outlook: Potential course of the Bean market for the next 10 years. Previous inflationary markets have caused for the multi year market structure to step up in price ranges. Before that range is found, Beans will need to mark a pivot high enough to ration some future demand. The low found after a major high is made, could mark an area for the future multi year market structure. The market should remain very sensitive for another few years. Sensitive to world demand and production misses across the globe. There are many climate cycles coming ahead that could add to potential Ag production shortages. **Not a prediction, something to watch**

Updated

Will soy reach a price of 53.49?As you can see, this increase is temporary in nature because the overall trend is still in a downtrend. So, my expectation for now is that soy prices will climb until they reach the daily resistance zone around 53.50 (as indicated by the red box drawn). It is anticipated that the price will experience a decline upon reaching this level because this zone can be considered quite strong since it hasn't been touched yet. This decline is supported by the fact that soy prices have broken the previous low of 52.08 and are expected to drop to the daily support zone around 50.47 to 50.17.

Agricultural Commodities: On a Landscape of Market Manipulation This Fib layout consists of the most important agricultural commodities. Beef, Pork, Soybean, Corn, Wheat, Rice, and Orange Juice Futures. -Orange Juice is sold as a frozen concentrate which makes it a commodity. Each Schematic is worked through by Large Institutions on behalf of the Fed. Market Manipulation through inflation and destroying meat processing plants/Killing livestock shows its effects.

Updated

November Soybeans Test 1300 The November soybean contract tested 1300 per bushel on Tuesday, trading all the way up to 1303 ½, before ultimately settling at 1296 ¾. The question is now - where do we go from here? Psychologically Significant Resistance Failing to close above 1300 means we failed to close above a psychologically significant resistance level at 1300. Moreover, we’ve previously identified 3-star resistance between 1294 and 1299 ¾. Because we closed within that resistance pocket, it’s possible that we test 1300 and beyond once again in Wednesday’s trading session. But what if we don’t? If the market corrects lower on the failure to trade through resistance, where do we find support? Previous Resistance Becoming Support If we reject higher prices in tomorrow’s trade, previous resistance between 1280 and 1285 ¼ should serve as the first line of defense. Meaning, that if we see prices sell off throughout the session on Wednesday, we should expect prices to bounce back somewhere between 1280 and 1285 ¼. If we cut through 1280 rapidly, the next sufficient support pocket may factor in near the 38.2% retracement level between the May 31st and July 24th price extremes - coming in around 1249-1250. The Bottom Line We are in the midst of a pivot in the November soybean contract. Tomorrow’s price action should provide guidance on the intermediate-term’s price trajectory. Last week’s USDA report was mostly supportive of the soybean complex, and export sales have performed well over the past 6 weeks. That said, net-exports remain lower than they were at this time last year, and global demand remains deflated. Pay close attention to tomorrow’s closing prices as they may indicate the direction of the trend over the next 2-4 weeks. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

by Blue_Line_Futures

SOYBEANS Supply And demand Buy Long Trade Setup Analysis See picture above for top-down analysis but I'm personally bullish with HTF correlation + LTF.

Long

by MoneyballAustin

What Drives Soybean Prices: El Niño, Geopolitics, or Seasonality El Niño means little boy in Spanish. The fishermen in Latin America observed periods of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean in the 1600s around Christmas. El Niño can cause 50% variation in local weather in regions growing essential crops like beans, corn, and coffee. Soybean is a giant in global trade. It ranks among the top comprising more than 10% of the total value traded annually. Soybean is used for edible oils, biofuels, and livestock feed. This paper introduces the impact of El Niño on bean prices, geopolitical risk in beans given its idiosyncratic market structure, and seasonality. Medium to longer term impact on bean prices will be dictated by severity of weather, demand, and energy prices. However, in the near term, record Brazilian output and ongoing harvests in China, India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada will weigh down on bean prices. To gain from weakening prices, this paper posits a hypothetical short position in CME Soybean Futures expiring in November 2023 (ZSX2023) with an entry at USc 1296/bushel combined with a target at USc 1188/bushel and hedged by a stop at USc 1368/bushel, delivering an expected reward-to-risk ratio of 1.5x. EL NIÑO IS A RECURRING CLIMATE PHENEMENON El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate phenomenon which has significant global impact on precipitation and temperature. ENSO is the result of the natural cyclical interaction between equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmosphere. These interactions lead to climate fluctuations across more than 60% of the world. ENSO has a major effect on rainfall and temperature variation. In some regions, such as those closest to the tropical pacific, ENSO can result in 50% of the total variation in local weather. These regions are often the most essential for important crops like bean, corn, and coffee. These interactions oscillate between warming and cooling periods leading to the ENSO cycle plotted below. The pattern recurs every two to seven years. Notably, the frequency of the ENSO cycle and the intensity of its effects have increased over the last fifty years due to global warming. As a result, ENSO has an outsized influence on global economy given its potency of delivering shocks to agriculture. El Niño are periods of warm ocean temperatures (highlighted in red) in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific regions. La Niña are periods with cooler ocean temperatures (marked in green above) in Central and Eastern Pacific zones. Periods with no major deviation from average Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are considered normal weather conditions. Each El Niño or La Niña phase persists for two years on average. However, a longer-than-expected phase of El Niño (like the one in 2015) can lead to a much more significant impact on agricultural markets owing to larger drawdown on inventories. THE BEAN IS EXPOSED TO GEOPOLITICS The Americas comprise >80% of total global production. Top producers are Brazil, the US, Paraguay, and Argentina. These nations are also the top bean exporters. China is world's largest importer. It mops up 60% of global import demand. Beans in China is primarily used to feed its massive livestock population. Unlike staple grains, the bean industry is highly centralized given the structure of the sea-borne market. Consequently, they are prone to shocks from disruptions such as trade restrictions and geo-politics. In 2017, soybean was caught in the crossfire in US-China tariff war. Back then, China placed a 25% tariff on beans imported from the US. This drove demand for Brazilian soybeans as the US ones were rendered expensive for Chinese importers. The trade friction adversely impacted the US, to an extent that is feltto this day. Since then, US exports have been far lower while Brazilian exports have gradually expanded. It has also led to structural shifts in bean usage. SEASONALITY IS PREDICTABLE IN BEAN PRICE BEHAVIOUR As previously published , seasonality in beans is driven by the harvest cycle. North American crop is harvested between September and November while South America harvests from March to June. Bean prices decline after harvesting cycles. Distinct price patterns can be discerned by analysing seasonality. Prices rise through the first half of the year from January to June as inventories deplete. Then, they rapidly decline following harvesting in Argentina and Brazil. EL NIÑO FAVORABLY IMPACTS BEANS El Niño’s effect on beans is consistent. Usually, extreme weather typically creates havoc to crop and crop yield. But not so in the case of soybeans. Interestingly, research shows that El Niño favourably impacts American soybeans farmers leading to a 3.5% increase in yield on average. Increased rainfall and lower temperature in the Americas caused by El Niño explains this favourable weather impact on the crop. As Weston Anderson, et al. highlight , the impact is most significant during peak El Niño which is expected next year. While American farmers benefit from benign weather, Asian growers suffer adverse effects of El Niño, resulting in declining yield and production in Asia. OUTLOOK FOR BEANS Taking into consideration the drivers outline as above, larger harvest is expected in Brazil in 2024. In 2023, Argentinian harvest was significantly smaller due to unfavourable weather, and this is expected to recover back to its usual levels. The USDA is forecasting a larger harvest in China in 2024. However, peak El Niño could negatively impact Chinese crop leading to spike in import demand. Seasonal trends point to a winter rally in bean prices ahead. However, historical analysis shows that El Niño years result in a higher-than-average yield in soybean. Combining the effect of (a) record Brazilian output, plus (b) El Niño fuelled greater yields leading to abundant harvest in 2024, the higher-than-average yield in soybean could cause a potential glut. Bean oversupply will cut short a winter price rally. Worse still, a glut could make the post-harvest price crash next year much more severe. SIGNALS FOR BEAN PRICES FROM DERIVATIVES MARKETS The commitment of trader’s report points to declining net long positions by managed money inching towards lows observed during May earlier this year. Even the options market hints at bearish slant with put-call ratio at 1.13x within rising open interest build up in puts in the near term. Since mid-September, data from CFTC shows that bean options traders are positioning themselves against fall in prices as they have added 18,079 lots in puts versus 13,090 lots in calls. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP With more harvests coming onstream, soybean prices will come under increasing downward pressure in the near term. To gain from crumbling bean prices, a hypothetical short position in CME Soybean Futures expiring in November ( ZSX2023 ) with an entry at USc 1296/bushel and a target at USc 1188/bushel, hedged by a stop at USc 1368/bushel is expected to deliver a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.5x. Each soybean futures contract provides exposure to 5,000 bushels (~136 metric tons) and is quoted in US cents per bushel. Each tick represents one-fourth of a cent (USc 0.25) per bushel resulting in USD12.50 in P&L. • Entry: 1296 • Target: 1188 • Stop: 1368 • Profit-at-Target (hypothetical): USD 5,400 (1296 – 1188 = 108; 432 ticks x 12.50 = 5,400) • Loss-at-Stop (hypothetical): USD 3,600 (1296 – 1368 = -72; -288 ticks x 12.50 = -3,600) • Reward-to-Risk (hypothetical): 1.5x REFERENCES Nature ScienceDirect MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.

Short

by mintdotfinance

SOYBEAN - IMMINENT SELL OFF SOYBEAN FUTURES - MONTHLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS Soybean sold at Monthly Supply Zone -> Destiny: Monthly Demand Zone I suggest make the following probable trades: - Sell Soybean until reach Monthly Demand zone - Buy Soybean from Monthly Demand Zone until Monthly Supply Zone

Short

Soybeans poised for a drop?Soybeans have certainly caught our attention as a classic head and shoulders pattern has emerged, suggesting a possible trend reversal. This implies a potential drop equivalent to the height from the head to the neckline, taking us towards the 900 level. Could this be signalling more downside in the soybean market? The current price action is intriguing as an attempt to break the neckline was rejected and prices now hover just below the neckline. Is this the prime moment to consider a short position on soybeans? We think it's worth exploring, and here's why... As we’ve last pointed out in the “It’s Corn!” idea in March, prices of the 3 major agriculture crops, Soybean, Wheat and Corn generally move together. Back then, we were highlighting the excessive premium in Corn futures as well as the break of a technical chart pattern. Now, we're witnessing a similar tale with Soybean stepping into the spotlight. From 2019 until now, these three crops have jockeyed for position in terms of percentage gain. Currently, Soybean is in the lead, when compared to Wheat and Corn, in terms of % gain from pre-COVID times and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Another way to look at it is to compare the ratio between Soybean & Corn as well as Wheat. The Soybean/Corn ratio is now at the higher end of its 7-year range, and while the Soybean/Wheat ratio not as extreme, is still closer to its range top. Another interesting dynamic we can look into is the Natural Gas – Fertilizers – Soybean dynamic. As natural gas is a key input in fertilisers production, the spectacular fall in natural gas prices has preceded falling fertiliser prices. This in turn, impacts soybean prices as well. Hence, we see a potential downside for Soybean as it trades at a premium as compared to Corn & Wheat. We can consider a short position on the Soybean Futures at the current level of 1340 with a stop at 1450 and take profits at 1250 followed by a subsequent take profit level at 900. This will allow profits on the anticipated downward move while also considering the head and shoulders pattern's target. CME’s Soybean Futures is quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Each 0.0025 increment equal to 12.5$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com

Short

Trading with Soybeans, Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures CBOT: Soybean ( CBOT:ZS1! ), Soybean Meal ( CBOT:ZM1! ), Soybean Oil ( CBOT:ZL1! ) This is the second installment on CBOT Soybean Complex. If you have not read the first piece, please click the link at the end of this idea. Let’s start with a discussion of two reports followed by soybean market participants. The Crop Report U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) closely monitors agricultural market conditions and publishes the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). WASDE, commonly known as the Crop Report, provides a global view of key agricultural products including wheat, rice, coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, and oats), oilseeds (soybeans, rapeseed, palm), cotton, sugar, meat, poultry, eggs, and milk. The Crop Report is the most important report followed by agricultural commodities traders. What’s the key takeaway from the April 2023 Crop Report on Oilseeds? U.S. soybean supply and use forecasts for 2022/23 are unchanged. However, relative to 2020/21, planted acreage is higher while export is lower. Global 2022/23 soybean supply and demand forecasts on lower production, crush, and exports. Global production in current crop year is reduced by 5.5 million tons. Overall, the April WASDE shows plentiful supply, weakened demand and higher inventory, the recipe for price trending down. CFTC COT Report Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports and provides a breakdown of open interest for futures and options markets. It categorizes the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: • Producer/Merchant/Processor/User: An entity that predominantly engages in the production, processing, packing, or handling of a physical commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with those activities. • Swap Dealers: An entity that deals in swaps for a commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge the risk associated with those swap transactions. • Managed Money: Commodity trading advisor (CTA) or Commodity pool operator (CPO). They are engaged in organized futures trading on behalf of clients. • Other Reportable: Every other reportable trader that is not placed above. What’s the key takeaway from the May 2nd COT report on Soybean/Meal/Oil Futures? o Soybean futures ZS open Interest: 601,051, down 4.7% from previous week; o Managed Money increased ZS short position by 80.1%; their long/short ratio is 2.1. Note that the ratio was 8.3 on April 18th. This indicates that speculative traders are no longer bullish on soybeans. o Soybean Meal ZM open Interest: 408,013, down 2.9% from previous week; o Managed Money decreased ZM long position by 22.3%; their long/short ratio is 3.7. Note that the ratio was 7.9 on April 18th. Again, this is a bearish signal. o Soybean Oil ZL open Interest: 472,547, up 0.6% from previous week; o Managed Money increased both long and short positions modestly; their long/short ratio is 0.7, the same with April 18th. Popular Soybeans Futures Trading Strategies – Explanation and Illustration There are different types of traders in the soybean futures market: Producers, Grain Elevator (Storer), Processor, Livestock Farmer (User), and non-commercial traders. We will discuss how they use the futures market, each with a hypothetical trade example for illustration purpose. Investor Non-commercial traders are not participants in the soybean industry. They hold a market view and hope to profit from such view through futures trading. Investors could draw ideas from futures price chart, the Crop Report, and other relevant market information. Case study #1: Directional Trade with Stop Loss Market information 1) April WASDE shows plentiful supply, weakened demand and higher inventory; 2) Following the release of WASDE, soybean price has been trending down; 3) News surfaced that Smithfield, the largest US hog producer, plans to liquidate 10% of its sow. This indicates lower soybean meal demand in the future. Trade Setup To express his market view, on May 10th, a trader sells one July 2023 contract (ZSN3) at 1412’6/bushel ($14.1275), which gives the contract a notion value of $70,637.5. He deposits $5,000 margin on his futures account. At 7.1% of the cost, he participates in the price exposure for 5,000 bushels of soybeans. The use of leverage, in this case by 14.1 times, is an advantage of cost-effective trading with futures contracts. Potential Profit and Loss 1) In June, ZSN3 declines to 1350’0 ($13.50), the trader would gain $3,137.5 = ($14.1275-$13.50) x 5,000. Using the original margin deposit as a cost base, this short futures trade would potentially realize 63% profit, excluding trading fees; 2) If the soybean market rallies to 1480’0 ($14.80), the trader would lose $3,362.5, or a return of -67%; 3) Our trader could set a stop loss at 1450’0 ($14.50), to cap the maximum loss at $1,862.5 and avoid margin calls. An outright trade with futures contract allows the trader to profit from a correct market view. Leverage built into futures could significantly enhance the profitability, while stop-loss could limit the exposure if the view proven to be incorrect. Soybean Farmer and the Production Hedge When a US soybean farmer plants the crops in April, he is said to have a Long Cash position. The farmer is exposed to the risk of falling soybean prices during the November harvest season. To hedge the price risk, our farmer could enter a Short Futures position now, and buy back the futures when he is ready to sell the crops. The effective sales price equals spot price in November plus gain/loss in the short futures position. Since the cash market and futures market are highly correlated, loss (gain) in the cash market will be largely offset by the gain (loss) in the futures market. Case study #2: Production Hedge (Short Hedge) Market information 1) The farmer planted 1,000 acres of soybeans in his Central Illinois farm; 2) Total production cost per acre is estimated at $859, which includes variable costs (seed, fertilizer, pesticide), overhead (building, storage, machinery) and land; 3) Yield per acre is estimated at 69 bushels. His cost per bushel will be $12.45; Trade Setup On May 10th, ZSX3 is quoted at 1254’2 ($12.5425). The farmer expects to sell 69,000 bushels. Since each ZS contract has a notional of 5,000, he needs to sell 14 lots of ZS contracts. Soybean basis in Greene County, Illinois is estimated at $0.20. The Hedging Effect 1) The farmer effectively locks in the sales price in April for his November soybean crop at: $12.5425 (futures) + $0.20 (basis) = $12.7425; 2) Production hedge helps our farmer to protect a profit margin of 29.25 cents =($12.7425 - $12.45) per bushel, or $20,182.5 for his entire crops. The farmer is left with basis risk. In the context of commodity futures trading, basis refers to the difference between the spot price of a commodity and the price of a futures contract for that same commodity. Basis risk is usually smaller than outright price risk. Grain Elevator and Futures Rollover Strategy After the crop is harvested, farmers or merchandisers usually store the soybeans in a grain elevator and wait for the right time and price to sell. Soybeans could be stored for a year but would incur monthly storage costs. The decision to store depends on whether expected future price gains outweigh the storage costs. A merchandizer is exposed to the risk of falling soybean price, which would cause his soybean inventory (old crop) to decline in value. To hedge the price risk, he could employ a rolling futures strategy. Case study #3: Rollover Front-month Soybean Futures “Rollover” refers to the process of closing out all positions in soon-to-expire futures contracts and opening contracts in newly formed contracts. The rollover process impacts market volatility, prices, and volume. Trade Setup 1) Sell 14 lots of July contract ZSN3 at 1412’6 ($14.1275) on May 10th; 2) At any point before expiration, if we decide to sell soybeans in the spot market, we could exit our futures position by buying 14 lots of ZSN3 at prevailing price; 3) If we plan to hold our inventory for a longer period, we will buy back ZSN3, and simultaneously sell 14 lots of August contract (ZSQ3); 4) ZSQ3 is quoted 1345’4 ($13.455) on May 10th. If you hold the soybean from July to August, you will incur extra storage cost, but would get 67.25 cent less per bushel. This is clearly very bearish. The Hedging Effect: Rolling futures positions allows our merchandizer to extend his hedge beyond original futures expiration. You may ask, why not use a longer-dated contract to begin with, say July 2024? This is because the front month contract is usually more liquid. It is easier to put the hedge on and off quickly. By sticking with liquid nearby contracts, we could avoid the cost of price slippage generally associated with less liquid deferred contracts. Soybean Processor and the Board Crush In soybean industry, “crush spread” is the market value of meal and oil byproducts subtracted by the cost of raw soybeans. In the cash market, the relationship between prices is commonly referred to as the Gross Processing Margin (GPM). In the futures market, the crush value is an inter-commodity spread transaction in which Soybean futures are bought (or sold) and Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil futures are sold (or bought). Soybean crush spread is also called the Board Crush. Case study #4: Soybean Crush Spread Trade Setup 1) The November-December Board Crush (buying November Soybean futures and selling December Soybean Meal futures and December Soybean Oil futures) is used to hedge new-crop gross processing margins; 2) CME Group facilitates the board crush that consists of a total of 30 contracts: 10 Soybean, 11 Soybean Meal, and 9 Soybean Oil; 3) Implied Soybean Crush (SOM: Z3-Z3-X3) is quoted at 172’6 ($1.7275) on May 10th. Each contract has a notional of 50,000 bushels and is currently priced at $86,375; 4) If we process 100,000 bushels a month, we would short 2 board crushes. On May 10th, the margin for this spread is $1,650 each. The Hedging Effect: Board Crush enables processors to lock in his operating profit. Livestock Farmer (Soybean User) and the Hog Feeding Spread Livestock farmers buy corn, soybean meal and other ingredients to produce animal feed. For example, hog farmers’ gross profit is represented by gross feeding margin, also known as the hog feeding spread, which is the value of lean hog less the cost of weaned pig, corn, and soybean meal. Therefore, hog farmers are exposed to the risk of rising ingredient costs. To manage price risks, they could trade the hog feeding spread, which isa long hedge by selling CME lean hog futures (HE) and buying CBOT corn (ZC) and soybean meal (ZM) futures. A typical hog feeding spread is expressed as: Hog Feeding Spread = 7 x HE – 3 x ZC – 1 x ZM Case study #5: Hog Feeding Spread Market information 1) USDA daily hog and pork report shows that cash market hog price averaged $73.59/cwt nationwide on May 9th, up 78 cents from prior week; 2) Cash hog is down 31.4% year-over-year. However, it seemed to bottom at $66 in mid-April and rebounded after the news of Smithfield sow liquidation. 3) Our farmer expects hog prices to rise faster than feed prices in the next few months. To capture an expanding margin, he plans to long the hog spread. Trade Setup: For every 280,000 pounds of lean hogs (approximately 1,120 pigs): • Long 7 lean hogs futures HEM3 at 0.84575/lb., giving a total notional value of $236,810, as each contract has 40,000 pounds (lb.); • Short 3 corn futures ZCK3 at 646’4 ($6.465)/bushel. Each ZC contract has 5,000 bushels of corn, leaving this leg of trade at $96,975; • Short 1 soybean meal futures ZMK3 at $415.0/short ton. Each ZM contract has 100 short tons of soybean meal, leaving this leg of trade at $41,500; • The combined total, $98,335, represents the gross margin of raising 1,120 hogs, or about $87.8 per pig. The Hedging Effect: It takes 5 months to grow a piglet to marketable weight. Factoring in breeding sows, the full production cycle for hog farmers could last 1-1/2 years. Pork prices and feed costs could vary significantly during this period. Hog Feeding Spread enables hog producers to lock in their operating profit. Spread Trading in CBOT Soybean Oil and BMD Crude Palm Oil Vegetable oils are the most crucial cooking ingredients in the world. Soybean oil and palm oil dominate the global edible oil marketplace with 2/3 of market share. Soybean oil and palm oil are considered substitute goods because food processors often switch between the two as the prices fluctuate. Soybean oil and palm oil are driven by different market fundamentals. World soybean production is centered mostly in the U.S., Brazil and Argentina, and most palm oil comes from Indonesia and Malaysia. A drought in the U.S. or in South America could drastically alter soybean oil supply one year, while disease in Southeast Asia could affect palm oil supply the next year. This can create tremendous volatility in the spread relationship. The CBOT Soybean Oil futures (ZL) consists of 60,000 pounds, equivalent to 27.22 metric tons. The BMD Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) futures contract is 25 metric tons (mt). Case study #6: Soybean Oil/Palm Oil Spread Observation: Soybean oil and palm oil markets have been in decline since July 2022. In the past two months, soybean oil drops by a faster rate compared to palm oil. There could be plausible cause for the abnormal trend. However, if the relationship were to reverses back to normal, the spread will be enlarged. If an investor holds this view, he could long the spread by buying CBOT soybean oil and selling BMD crude palm oil. Trade Setup • Provided ZL at $0.5255/lb. and FCPO at MYR 3570/mt with prevailing USD/MYR exchange rate at 4.46, the ZL/FCPO spread could be derived at: • ZL = $0.5255 (per lb.) x 2204.622 (lbs. per mt) = $1,158/mt • FCPO = MYR 3570 / 4.46 /mt= $800/mt • ZL/ FCPO spread = $1,158/mt -$800/mt=$358/mt Potential Profit and Loss 1) For an investor, a profit could be realized if the spread gets bigger. He would incur a loss if the spread narrows instead. The USD/MYR exchange rate could affect the trading result; 2) For commercial hedgers such as edible oil processors, hedging would allow them to maintain stable production formulas even though oilseed spot prices change unexpectedly. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com

Long

by JimHuangChicago

A Primer on Soybean Crush Spread Soybeans are one of the most versatile and important agricultural commodities in the world, consumed extensively by humans, livestock, and industry. Soybean prices have an undeniable impact on the global economy and their importance is only increasing with the rapidly growing bio-diesel industry. In our previous paper Heavy Exports Weighing Down Soybeans , we described factors affecting the supply of Soybean and their seasonality. Supply is largely driven by harvest cycles and crop yields. Demand can shift for multiple reasons. Live stock feed, Cooking oil and Biodiesel form the largest demand source for Soybean. These are all derived from the two by-products of Soybean – Soybean Meal (“Meal”) and Soybean Oil (“Oil”)). During Soybean processing, the seed is crushed to separate the oil from the meal. These by-products can be traded as separate commodities. Traders can harvest gain from the shifting relationship between the by-products and soybean using the crush spread. This paper will describe the crush spread, its computational methodology, and the methods for investors to harvest gains from it. The paper will also look into the factors defining the crush spread in 2023. The Crush Spread The Soybean crush spread refers to the value of Soybean’s gross processing margin, which is the difference between the value of the outputs (Meal Price + Oil Price) and the value of the inputs (Soybean Price). The crush spread is traded on the cash and futures markets and is often used by Soybean processors to hedge their margins for the actual process. It can also be used to harvest gains from the shifting dynamics between Soybean and its byproducts. Factors That Affect the Spread The crush spread can be influenced by the price of soybeans, the demand for its byproducts and the cost of production. Production costs can vary due to energy prices, labor conditions, carryover stock, and health of supply chains. Demand for by-products is driven by some common factors such as macro-economic conditions but also by factors unique to each commodity. Meal is used for livestock feed while Oil is used as a cooking oil and as biodiesel. Livestock feed demand is driven largely by China to feed its large swine population. Like soybean supply, feed demand also shows high seasonality. Due to a shortage of grass in the winter, Soybean Meal is consumed during these months leading to higher demand. Additionally, unlike other commodities, Soy Meal cannot be stored for longer than 3 weeks. So, during the US harvest (October), Soy Meal prices plummet due to oversupply. Cooking oil demand is sensitive to the supply and price of Palm oil, which is also widely used for cooking. Both can be used interchangeably; they are the so called substitute products. So, the decision of which product food producers choose depends on prices, supply, and import/export policy decisions. Moreover, Soybean Oil is far more suitable for the production of biodiesel than Palm Oil. This is why Soybean Oil generally trades at a premium of $100-$150 tonnes to Palm Oil. In the US, Soybean Oil demand for biodiesel is even higher owing to a fast-growing renewable diesel industry. Shifting Dynamics of Soybean By-Products Downbeat Macro With recession risks and inflation running high in many countries, the macro-economic outlook is downbeat. This weighs on the demand for Soybean and its by-products, resulting in lower prices and a narrowing spread. China’s Reopening China’s reopening from pandemic restrictions last year is in full swing. Although initial recovery was sharp, conditions have started to cool due to downbeat macroeconomic conditions weighing on export demand and still weak domestic demand. China’s large swine population is a major driver of meal demand. Heading into the winter, in case domestic demand starts to recover, it would lead to far higher meal demand and prices resulting in a narrowing spread. Rising Demand for Soybean Oil In the past, crush demand was driven largely by demand for Meal, Oil was considered a surplus without enough uses. However, rising demand for green energy across the globe and tax incentives for producers have led to a sharp increase in demand for Soybean oil in the past few years, particularly in the US. Biodiesel production capacity nearly doubled between 2021 and 2022. Since then, markets have normalized with higher planting of crops and increased Soybean crushing capacity installed. Despite the downbeat economic conditions, demand for Soybean Oil is expected to increase 4.9% this year after surging 6.5% last year, according to the USDA. With higher demand for Soybean Oil, crush demand will also increase. This would result in a change in the price relationship between Meal and Oil as well as a narrower crush spread due to higher volumes. Harvesting Profit from Crush Spread Investors can take a position on the crush spread in a capital efficient manner using CME’s Soybean (ZS), Soybean Oil (ZL), and Soybean Meal (ZM) futures. CME offers margin offsets for a crush spread position using these contracts. In addition, the Soybean crush can be executed on CME Globex as a single trade. Each of these 3 contracts are quoted in different units. ZS is quoted in cents/bushel. ZM is quoted in dollars/short ton. ZL is quoted in cents/pound. As such, in order to calculate the value of the spread, the price of each contract needs to be converted to cents/bushel. A bushel of Soybean (60 pounds) yields 11 pounds of Soybean Oil and 44 pounds of 48% protein Soybean Meal. The conversion factors are given below Soybean Oil per bushel: ZL Price x 0.11 Soybean Meal per bushel: ZM Price x 0.022 Crush Spread ($/bushel) = (Soybean Oil per bushel + Soybean Meal per bushel) - ZS Price/100 As per each contract's exposure size, a long crush spread position using CME futures comprises long eleven (11) Soybean Meal futures contracts, long nine (9) Soybean Oil futures contracts, and short ten (10) Soybean futures contracts. This position would normally require a margin of $67,625 for the nearest month contracts. However, with the 88% margin offset, investors can go long on the crush spread with exposure to 50,000 bushels for just ~$8,115 in margin. Alternatively, investors can also get direct exposure to the crush spread using CME’s options on the Soybean Board Crush Spread. Each contract gives exposure to 50,000 bushels. Example Trade Like Soybean prices, the crush also shows seasonality. This is due to the combined seasonal effects of Soybean and each of its byproducts. In our previous paper, we highlighted that Soybean prices are at their lowest in October due to the US harvest. Due to a low input cost (Soybean price), Board crush expands during this time. The same uptrend can be seen during the summer months representing the harvest from Brazil and Argentina. It should be noted that seasonal trends are not a guarantee as other factors can have outsized effects on markets. A long position in the Board crush would represent a short position of 10 Soybean contracts and a long position in 11 Soybean Meal contracts & 9 Soybean Oil contracts. As an example trade, consider the board crush in Jan 2019. Going long on the board crush on 9th Jan with an entry level of USD 1.02/bushel and an exit at USD 1.37/bushel would yield 34% profit. However, investors should note that the board crush value is highly volatile, as it is derived from three volatile underlying drivers. So, stop loss needs to be adjusted for the high volatility. Positions on 9th Jan: ● Short 10 ZS1! at entry level of 924 c/bushel ● Long 11 ZM1! at entry level of USD 323.4 /short ton ● Long 9 ZL1! at entry level of 28.6 c/lb Note that the crush declined to 0.91 on 15th Feb representing downside of 10.7%: ● ZS1! at price level 921.5 resulting in profit of USD 1,250 ● ZM1! at price level 310.5 resulting in loss of USD 14,190 ● ZL1! at price level 29.95 resulting in profit of USD 7,290 Net loss: USD 5,650 Crush started to rise in April and peaked at 1.37 (+34%) on 30th May: ● ZS1! at price level 877.85 resulting in profit of USD 23,075 ● ZM1! at price level 327.4 resulting in profit of USD 4,400 ● ZL1! at price level 27.8 resulting in loss of USD 4,320 Net Profit: USD 21,155 Key Takeaways 1) Board Crush or the Crush Spread represents the Gross Processing Margin (GPM) of crushing Soybean into its by-products as quoted by cash and futures markets. 2) Board Crush allows traders to replicate the Soybean Processing Value Chain. It enables traders to harvest gains from changing crush margins while enabling crushers to hedge their GPMs. 3) Board crush can be volatile which requires astute risk management while trading it. 4) Trading board crush using CME futures is margin efficient due to substantial margin offsets (88%). MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.

Education

by mintdotfinance

CBOT Soybean Complex: An Introduction CBOT: Soybean ( CBOT:ZS1! ), Soybean Meal ( CBOT:ZM1! ), Soybean Oil ( CBOT:ZL1! ) Today, I am starting a new series on CBOT soybeans, one of the most liquid commodities contracts in the world. In March 2023, Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil together traded 14.0 million lots, contributing to 42.6% of CME Group agricultural futures and options volume, and 2.0% of overall Exchange monthly volume. Soybean Market Fundamentals Soybeans are the world’s largest source of animal protein feed and the second largest source of vegetable oil. Soybeans are the most-traded agricultural commodities, comprising more than 10% of the total value of global agriculture trade. According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), global soybean production for 2022/2023 crop year is 369.6 million metric tons. Let’s visualize this: If we were to distribute the entire crops to the world population evenly, each person would get approximately 46 kilograms of soybeans. The U.S., Brazil and Argentina are the largest soybean producers, accounting for 80% of the global production. The U.S. is the single largest soybean producer and exporter, harvesting 4.3 billion bushels a year and exporting 47% of it, according to the WASDE. The heart of U.S. soybean production is the Midwest. In the main part of the soybean belt, planting takes place from late April through June, with harvest beginning in late September and ending in late November. About two thirds of the total soybean crop is processed, or crushed, into soybean oil and soybean meal. The term “crush” refers to the physical process of converting soybeans into its oil and meal byproducts. The crush spread refers to the difference between the value of soybean meal and oil and the price of soybeans. It represents the gross processing margin from crushing soybeans. When a bushel of soybeans weighing 60 pounds is crushed, the typical results are: • 11 pounds of soybean oil (18%) • 44 pounds of soybean meal (73%) • 4 pounds of hulls (6%) • 1 pound of waste (2%) Soybean meal is used by feed manufacturers as a prime ingredient in high-protein animal feed for poultry and livestock. It is further processed into human foods, such as soy grits and flour, and is a key component in meat or dairy substitutes, like soymilk and tofu. After initial processing, soybean oil is further refined and used in cooking oils, margarines, mayonnaise and salad dressings and industrial chemicals. Soybean oil may also be left unprocessed and used in the production of biodiesel fuels. Exports are big business for U.S. soybean farmers. According to the data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, soybean exports totaled $6.9 billion in the first two months of 2023, contributing to 1.4% of all U.S. exports of goods and services. Soybean exports have increased dramatically since 2000 as the demand for meat and poultry grew in Europe and Asia, particularly in China. CBOT Soybeans Futures and Options Soybean futures began trading at the Chicago Board of Trade in 1932, followed by futures on its byproducts: Soybean Oil in 1946 and Soybean Meal in 1947. Soybean (ZS) futures are physically delivered contracts based on No. 2 yellow soybeans. Each contract has a notional value of 5,000 bushels, equivalent to 136 metric tons. Soybean contracts are listed for the months of Nov., Jan., Mar., May, Jul., Aug., and Sep., projecting out about 3.5 years in the future. You may have heard of the terms “New Crop” and “Old Crop”. The former refers to crops that have not been harvested. For soybeans, it’s Nov. contract (ZSX3), which coincides with the harvest season. For contract months May, Jul., Aug., and Sep. 2023, soybeans available for sales are from the previous crop year, hence the name “Old Crop”. Soybean options (OZS) have a contract unit of 1 ZS futures contract. It is deliverable by the corresponding futures contract, with the last trading day set at one month prior to futures expiration month. Soybean Meal (ZM) futures are also physically delivered contracts. Each contract has a notional value of 100 short tons, equivalent to 91 metric tons. Soybean Meal contracts are listed for the months of Jan., Mar., May., Jul., Aug., Sep., Oct., and Dec. A total of 25 contracts are listed simultaneously. Because of the use of soybean meal for animal feed, its demand is closely aligned with the livestock and poultry industry. For the export market, instead of soybean meal, buyers usually buy soybeans and process them in their home country. Soybean Meal options (OZM) have a contract unit of 1 ZM futures contract and are deliverable by the corresponding futures contract. Soybean Oil (ZL) futures are physically delivered contracts. Each contract has a notional value of 60,000 pounds, equivalent to 27.2 metric tons. Soybean Oil contracts are listed for the months of Jan., Mar., May., Jul., Aug., Sep., Oct., and Dec. A total of 27 contracts are listed simultaneously. While soybean oil is a leading ingredient for edible oil, oilseeds also include rapeseed, sunflower, sesame, groundnut, mustard, coconut, cotton seeds and palm oil. Whenever one of them becomes too expensive, food companies would substitute it with a cheaper ingredient. Hence, soybean oil price is highly correlated with the other oilseed products. Use Cases for CBOT Soybeans Contracts At every stage of the soybean production chain, from planting, growing and harvest, to exporting and processing, market participants face the risk of adverse price movements. Prices of soybean and its byproducts continuously fluctuate, largely determined by crop production cycles, weather, livestock production cycles, and ongoing shifts in global market demand. In this section, I will illustrate how producer, storer, processor and soybean user could use CBOT soybeans futures and options to hedge market risks. Soybean Farmer (Producer) When a US soybean farmer plants the crops in April, he is said to have a Long Cash position. The farmer is exposed to the risk of falling soybean price during the November harvest season. To hedge the price risk, our farmer could enter a Short Futures position now, and buy back and offset the futures when he is ready to sell the crops. Since the cash market and futures market are highly correlated, loss or gain in the cash market will be largely offset by the gain or loss in the futures market. The farmer is left with basis risk, which is adverse changes of the cash-futures spread. It is usually much smaller than the outright price risk. In the context of futures trading, notably commodities, basis refers to the difference between the spot (cash) price of a commodity and the price of a futures contract for that same commodity. Grain Elevator (Storer) After the crop is harvested, farmer or merchandiser would usually store the soybeans in a grain elevator and wait for the right time and price to sell. Soybeans could be stored for a year but would incur monthly storage costs. The decision to store depends on whether expected future price gains outweigh the storage costs. The merchandizer is exposed to the risk of falling soybean price, which would cause his soybean inventory (old crop) to decline in value. To hedge the price risks, he could establish a Short Futures position for the expected period of storage and buy it back when he is ready to sell. Oilseed Processor For soybean processing mill, crush spread represents the gross processing margin from crushing soybeans. It is exposed to the risk of rising soybean price where meal and oil prices fail to catch up. Soybeans trade in bushels, soybean meal trades in short tons and soybean oil trades in pounds. The prices of the three commodities need to be converted to a common unit for an accurate calculation. A bushel of soybeans produces about 44 pounds of soybean meal. Since Soybean Meal futures are priced per ton, multiplying the meal price by 0.022 represents the meal price per 44 pounds. That same bushel of soybeans also produces 11 pounds of soybean oil. Since Soybean Oil futures are priced per pound, multiplying the soybean oil price by 0.11 represents the oil price per 11 pounds. (www.cmegroup.com) Processor could lock in the crush margin by a crush spread trade. To ease the difficulty of constructing and executing the spread, CME Group facilitates the board crush that consists of a total of 30 contracts; 10 Soybean, 11 Soybean Meal, and 9 Soybean Oil. Livestock Farmer (User) Large-scale farms usually buy corn, soybean meal and other ingredients to produce their own feed. Farmers are exposed to the risk of rising ingredient costs. They could hedge the price risk by establishing long positions in CBOT corn and soybean meal futures. For hog farmers, gross production profit is represented by the Hog Crush Margin. It is defined by the value of lean hog (LH) less the cost of weaned pig (WP), corn (C) and soybean meal (SBM). In the futures market, traders could replicate the economic hog crush margin with a Hog Feeding Spread involving CME lean hog (HE), CBOT Corn (ZC) and CBOT Soybean Meal (ZM). There is no futures contract for weaned pig (piglet). If you expect hog margin to grow, Long the feeding spread: Buy lean hog, sell corn and soybean meal. For a shrinking margin, Short the spread: Sell hog, buy corn and meal. This concludes Part 1 of our introduction to CBOT Soybean complex. In Part 2, I plan to discuss major reports that move the soybean markets: • World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) • USDA Prospective Plantings Report • USDA Grain Stocks Report • CFTC Commitment of Traders Report Happy Trading. (To be continued) Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com

Education

by JimHuangChicago

Nutrien - Fertilizer Plays Into Growing Season, But a Coinflip 2022's droughts and the Ukraine War put a lot of the world's food supply into question. Food commodity futures had a pretty bullish year. Since we're in mid-February and Western Hemisphere growing season is right upon us, fertilizer stocks are really worth paying attention to. Food scarcity is an even bigger issue with the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic smashing Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party over in Mainland China. The Party claims less than a hundred thousand people have died from COVID since this all began. But the Party is obviously lying about that, since China had 1.4 billion people and was the epicenter of the virus. America is on the other side of the ocean and lost 1.1+ million people. My point is that if China has really lost, say, 40 or 50 or 100 million people to the pandemic, the Party will need to import crops because there won't be all that many farmers around anymore to do the work of feeding the regime. This should be a bullish situation for food commodities and fertilizer. Nutrien is one of the market leaders, but this is a really difficult setup, a lot like flipping a coin, and here's why. 1. A monthly microgap at $64 that the algorithm spent a lot of effort keeping lows away from 2. Already a 40%+ retrace, but new lows haven't been set. 3. Daily bars show a perfect continuation of the downtrend line 4. Weekly bars show a sweep of the downtrend line 5. Earnings is Feb. 15 So, here's what I think at the moment. It's something of a gamble, but I think you can generate Alpha with puts on Nutrien before earnings. I say this, but realize that "generating Alpha" doesn't buy rice at the grocery store. It's like Sklansky Bucks in poker. Cool, you got +EV, but the donk took all your money. At least you can post a bad beat, I guess. In this case I think the play is not as unrealistic. Another fertilizer giant, CF Holdings, has earnings the same day: Feb. 15 postmarket, and started doing the bearish "orderblocking" thing two sessions ago These patterns before earnings are generally (emphasis on generally ) harbingers of a big gap down coming. The logic being that sell orders are being filled in anticipation of what smart money's big data analysis has already very accurately determined is about to happen Monday you get an FOMC member jawboning and Tuesday we get the dreaded CPI printout. It's a lot of volatility confluencing together in one big coagulate and if you guess right you win a cookie and if you guess wrong Wall Street guys will pay stripers with your money at 11:00 PM happy hour. In Nutrien's Q3 '22 financials the company told investors that they expected demand to be hot going into _fall_, and not spring, "Weather has been favorable in North America and we anticipate that the rapid pace of harvest will support strong fall ammonia demand and normal application rates of potash, phosphate and crop protection products." They also said, "We have lowered our global potash shipment forecast to between 60 and 62 million tonnes in 2022, largely due to the impact of higher-than-expected inventory and cautious buying in North America and Brazil during the second half of 2022." These two factors contrast against expectations from the company that expectations of higher 2023 commodity prices will lead to an increase in farm production, while noting that Ukraine will be down some 45% because of the war, notable because they were pretty much the world's wheat kings. Also noteworthy is Q3 was a big revenue/EPS miss for Nutrien. Estimates were 3.85 EPS and came in at $2.49. Revenue was $8.53B and came in at $7.91B. Q4 is a lot easier of a goalpost to hit, with estimates at $2.534 EPS and $7.392 Revenue. A miss here would (logically) definitely be a dumpster. So, ultimately, I think $110 Nutrien will come, and we may very well see this in the later part of '23, if not the early part of '24. But before then, it seems that the $60s are imminent. So, I'd rather do puts on CF than Nutrien into earnings as it stands, but staying flat and playing the consequences is a lot less risk. The two areas to watch for on Nutrien: 1. $63 to buy 2. $110 to sell It would be a big, bullish deal if Nutrien doesn't break this daily trendline and just dumps on earnings. $65 commons prices and 3-6+ month expiry call options should definitely be a fat return if you can ride it to the top.

by LordWrymouth

Updated

Fundamentals favour soybean, sugar and wheat Agricultural commodities, led by grains rose sharply in 2022. The two main catalysts for the upside in price were the Russia-Ukraine war alongside other supply challenges. There has been a number of cascading events around these two catalysts involving government interventions globally as food prices soared. However, from mid-October the renewal of the Black Sea grain initiative for six months, helped quell concerns of access to Black Sea ports. We have seen prices decline since then, but from a high level. It’s worth noting that grain exports from Ukraine under the Black Sea Grain Initiative dropped to 3.1mn tons in January compared to 3.6mn tons in December 2022 owing to a slowdown in inspections1. In 2023, the supply demand balance appears to be favouring soybeans, wheat, and sugar. Extreme drought in Argentina lends a tailwind to soybean prices In the case of soybean, a gloomier supply outlook has been a key tailwind for prices in 2023. Argentina, the world’s third largest soybean producer, is expected to see a weaker crop at 35.5mn tons owing to persistent drought and high temperatures. The Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the crop at just 36mn tons after the USDA previously predicted a crop of 45.5mn tons. However, both estimates are still well above the assessments of local experts. The Rosario Grain Exchange, which asserts the drought is the worst in 60 years, lowered its soybean forecast to 34.5mn tons. Thus, future downward revisions by USDA are quite likely which should help soybeans continue to find support. Net speculative positioning in soybean futures has increased 124% since the start of October underscoring the positive sentiment owing to the tighter supply outlook. Tighter supply on the global sugar market Sugar prices are trading at a six year high. Investors remain concerned over the prospects of the sugar crop in India, the world’s second largest sugar exporter. Sugar cane processing in Maharashtra, the most important growing State, could end 45 to 60 days earlier than last year owing to heavy rainfall that has reduced the availability of sugar cane. In 2022, sugar production reached a record 13.7mn tons, which allowed India to export a record high 11.2mn tons of sugar.2 The Indian Sugar mills Association (ISMA) revised its estimate for domestic sugar production lower from 36.5mn tons to 34mn tons for the 2022/23 season2. This is raising concerns that the Indian government will not approve any further sugar exports for the current marketing year owing to the recent reports of weak production. This does suggest a tighter global sugar market particularly as we are in the midst of Brazil’s (the world’s largest sugar producer) sugarcane off-season. Although Brazil produces sugar all year round, during this period (December to March) few mills continue to crush. Supply from Thailand, the world’s third largest sugar producer is unlikely to fill the gap left behind by the smaller Indian harvest particularly during Brazil’s off-crop. The front end of the sugar futures curve has been in backwardation over the past 3 months and currently provides a roll yield of 7.2% highlighting the tightness in the sugar market. Wheat most exposed to geopolitical tensions Wheat prices have under most pressure from the improved supply prospects from the Black Sea Region. However total grain exports have declined by 29% to 27.7mn tons in the ongoing season (from 1 July 2022 to 31 January 2023), with wheat exports down 42% over the prior year.3 The ongoing escalation in the Russia Ukraine war continue to threaten supply from the breadbasket of Europe. The US Department of Agriculture is forecasting a noticeably smaller Russian wheat crop of 91 million tons for 2022 in sharp contrast to Russia’s State Statistics Agency estimate at a record high of 104.4mn tons. According to the consultant firm SovEcon, the key growing region in the south of Russia has seen only around 40-80% of its normal rainfall over the past three months. The forecasts of this year’s crop in Russia are less optimistic. In the 2022/23 season, a record crop in Russia enabled ample supply of the wheat markets, despite a considerably lower crop in war-torn Ukraine in particular, thereby dampening prices. Lower supply is likely in the coming season, however, not only from the top wheat producers – Russia and the US – but also from Ukraine on account of the ongoing military conflict. The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) anticipates a crop volume of 16 million tons. According to the Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry, 20 million tons of wheat were harvested last year. Before the war, the crop had totalled around 30 million tons. Net speculative positioning in wheat futures is currently more than 2-standard deviations below its five-year average, underscoring the extreme bearishness on the wheat market. Amidst the ongoing conflict and lower wheat supply from Russia and Ukraine, wheat prices appear positioned for a rebound from current levels. Sources 1 Bloomberg as of 31 January 2023 2 Indian Sugar Mills Association as of 30 December 2022 3 Bloomberg as of 31 December 2022

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