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Soybeans

Soybeans Channeling Higher Towards 1800The main view of this trade idea is on the Daily Chart. The commodity Soybeans appears to have found some support around the 1350 price level. The commodity is in a trend channel higher and once that trend channel holds, could rally towards 1800 over the next couple of months. This view will be negated if Soybeans fall below 1420. Technical Indicators The technical indicators are aligned to this view. Soybean’s Supertrend has been in a buy mode since the end of October 2022. The commodity has been above its respective Moving Average, the 50-Day MA, since November 1st, 2022. The Awesome Oscillator is above 0 and green while the RSI is above 50 and increasing. The intra-day trend following indicators of the Soybeans also display uptrends in the 15-Min, 2-Hour and 4-Hour time frames. Short to medium term support is seen around the 1425. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 1420 and a target of 1800. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 2.45. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of writing, I have exposure to Soybean futures.
FX:SOYFLong
by Ceddy86
Agricultural Commodities - When the Big Elephant Left the RoomCBOT: CBOT:ZW1! , CBOT:ZS1! , CBOT:ZC1! , CME:HE1! This is the second report in the series “Year of the Rabbit: Short-tailed Trading”. US inflation began to pick up in March 2021 and rose rapidly throughout the year. Federal Reserve officials told Americans not to worry. It was due to supply chain issues and comparisons to low baseline numbers in 2020 when economies were shut down. After CPI rose to 7.0% in December, the Fed voted to keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% on January 26th, 2022. Inflation would be “transitory”. Just ignore the big elephant in the room and it would go away. That’s the prevailing thinking at the time. Then a military conflict took place in the former Soviet bloc. The war shock and ensuing impact from embargo of Russian products pushed the prices of commodities, from gold, nickel, crude oil, natural gas, to winter wheat and many others to record high. On March 16th, the Fed raised rate by 25 basis points with a change of heart. This baby step turned into the most intense battle against inflation with seven consecutive rate hikes. “Strong Dollar, Weak Commodities” and “High Rate, Low Price” became the dominant theme of the global commodities market. Many commodities gave up early gains and priced at or below prewar levels. US headline inflation rate peaked at 9.1% in June and Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) topped in September. They have come down ever since. 2022 was all about geopolitical crises and central bank actions. Along with investor sentiment, they dominated market trends. Economic fundamentals have been left largely unnoticed. Outlook for 2023 In the new year, these macro factors would likely stay in the back burners. When the big elephant left the room, fundamentals in each market would once again drive commodities prices. Commodities markets might be less volatile compared to last year. One notable exception is China. The government ended its strict Zero-Covid policies on December 7th. From January 8th, Chinese tourists would be hitting popular travel destinations around the world, after nearly three-year absence. Normalization of daily life and business activity will not only boost China’s economy, but also lend needed support to the global economy which many believe to be on the verge of a recession. However, surges in Covid cases raise the risk of new and more deadly virus. By one estimate, up to one billion people are already Covid-positive in China. This is one-eighth of the world population! For a thorough analysis of China’s re-opening and its impact, please check out my previous report, The Rise and Fall of Chinese Yuan. This concludes a high-level overview before we move to discuss what all these mean for agricultural commodities in 2023. Fundamental Supply and Demand Built on Higher Baseline While the big elephant has left, it still casts a shadow in the room. Inflation is sticky. Rate increases have lasting impacts long after the hikes are over. This is evident in food costs. Inflation pushed the cost of producing, processing, distributing, and selling agricultural products to a high level. November CPI for food items was 10.6%, much higher than the headline CPI of 7.1%. The cost for food at home grew 12% annually, indicating a rapid rise in grocery prices. There are no rate cuts nor deflation in sight. This means that food costs will continue to go up, although at a slower pace. Wheat, corn, and soybean have different supply and demand fundamentals. But CBOT futures price charts show similar patterns for all three in the past three years. As I pointed out earlier, inflation, geopolitical crisis and Fed rate hikes took turns driving commodities markets across the board. Economic fundamentals got set aside. Volatility is a friend for options traders. Last June, I introduced a Long Strangle strategy on CBOT Wheat (ZC). At the time, wheat price was swung widely by actions in the battlefield. A surprise agreement that allowed Ukrainian grain cargoes to pass the Russia-control Black Sea sent price sharply down, making our put options 400% more valuable. This year, we will focus on more subtle changes in traditional supply and demand factors, such as planted acreage, weather, yield, and export. Spread Trade Opportunities Inflation and rate hikes hit different parts of the agricultural markets differently. For the same commodities, the spread between farm-level price and retail grocery price has become wider due to cost increase. The commodities used as input in food product and those for output respond to different fundamentals. When inflation and interest rate are moving fast, the traditional price relationship may be temporally dislocated, opening opportunities for spread trades. Take the example of the Lean Hog market: Last August, USDA Daily Hog and Pork Report showed that benchmark Iowa Carcass Base Price averaged $128/cwt. Hog Crush Margin represents production profit by hog farmers. It is defined by the value of lean hog (LH) less the cost of weaned pig (WP), corn (C) and soybean meal (SBM). On August 2nd, I presented the trade idea “Short the Hog Margin If You Expect Lower Pork Price”. It’s a profitable trade. On January 6th, USDA benchmark carcass is quoted at $74, a whopping 42% decline in five months. For this spread trade, I used a Hog Feeding Spread to replicate the economic hog crush margin with CME lean hog (HE), CBOT Corn (ZC) and CBOT Soybean Meal (ZM). The size of relevant futures contracts: HE, 40000 lbs.; ZC, 5000 bushels; and ZM, 100 short tons. A typical hog feeding spread is 7:3:1, which may be expressed as: Hog Feeding Spread = 7 x HE – 3 x ZC – 1 x ZM As I expect hog margin to shrink, I short the spread: Sell hog, buy corn and meal. I will continue to monitor the agricultural commodities space in the new year. Whenever spreads or other trade opportunities arise, I will present the new ideas on TradingView. Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
11
Soybeans Ten Month Buy Signal The Soybean futures market is generating a buy signal based on the monthly time frame based on the "Time@Mode Methodology". Notice the 8 month sideways action around the green horizontal line in 2021 which set up what turned into a 7 month rally into June 2022. When "time expires" the market tends to form a new mode at that price level (within the range of the 8th month) or it returns to the mode previous to the trend. You can see there was a sharp move down in July 2021 but it didn't return to the old mode, which is constructive long term. The white and yellow projection lines are the previous two rallies added to the current "mode" at 1434'2. The green box is the range around the mode added to the mode to provide 1x and 2x's that range for a price projection potential. The 50% speed line is a reference line to indicate if the market is holding above the half-speed of the move from the lowest low to the highest high. You can see clearly that the 50% speed line held in that pullback in July 2021. This has been a long time building this mode and the bigger the mode, the bigger the rally. The risk is a move back under the mode, which is the December low. Wishing you all well. Happy Holidays and Happy New Years!! Tim 1:48PM EST 12/23/2022 1490 last $ZSK2023 Wishing you all the best
CBOT:ZSK2023Long
by timwest
1
January Soybeans - DailyJanuary23 Soybeans – Daily: Back to a daily chart with a few weeks remaining on the Jan contract and trying to narrow the focus for end of year contract activity. The break above the black downtrend line was short lived, Thursday’s close found support at the red Tenkan line. Monday & Tuesday need to come out strong and sustain price above the cloud at 14.42 and more importantly the blue Kijun/black downtrend line currently at 14.47. Support below at 14.05 and a break below the cloud and uptrend line has end of contract risk at 13.45-13.30 area…
CBOT:ZSF2023
by mtb1980
2
SOYBEANS // nice RR aheadHi✋🏽 Within the short trend, we have seen a nice countertrend built by the buyers and the sellers. It seems that this countertrend is turning in the direction of the main short trend. What do you think??? Trade safe! ⚪️⚫️ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter. I JUST REACT! Thanks for reading my analysis!🤘🏽 Remember that trading is a business. SIZE your TRADES according to your risk aversion! ----------------------------------------------------------
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by TheMarketFlow
SOYBEANS // short trend may continue after retestHi Everyone!✋🏽 As you probably know, I analyze price action and price went into countertrend on H4, testing the previous D/H4 south breakout with a nice wick. From here after 1-2-3 and through the short trigger zone, chances are high that targets on the chart will be met. If countertrend never brakes all the way through the long trigger zone, I switch to the long side. What do you think??? Trade safe! ⚪️⚫️ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you liked my analysis, please remember to support the idea with a BOOST , or COMMENT! ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter. WE JUST REACT! Thanks for reading my analysis!🤘🏽 Remember that trading is a risky business. SIZE your TRADES according to your risk aversion! ----------------------------------------------------------
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by TheMarketFlow
SOYBEAN short scenarioHi Everyone!✋🏽 Soybean is technically in a downtrend. The first target that is the last daily low, where the correction of the short impulse wave has started. Can be reached until the validity zone stands the pressure from the buyers. ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter. WE JUST REACT! Trade safe! ⚪️⚫️ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks for reading my analysis!🤘🏽 Remember that trading is a risky business. SIZE your TRADES according to your risk aversion! Please remember to support the idea with a BOOST or COMMENT with your highly appreciated opinion! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBOT:ZSX2022Short
by TheMarketFlow
Soybeans ZS - Lagging the Pack, but Ready to GoThis is a call I wanted to make yesterday, but didn't have time. With the time I had, there was a choice between this and a Nasdaq NS call and made the Nasdaq call: Nasdaq NQ - 8 Days & 1,700 Points But in fairness, I did pick up November options during yesterday's session, so at least I can say that much for myself, since this has some vibes of hindsight based on today's action. Regardless, Soybeans gives strong cause to believe bullish action is imminent, based on the monthly candles: What this tells us that our June high formed a double top with the '12 all-time high. But most critically, it formed a lower high double top, which means that MMs are likely to seek this level to crush bear skulls, and it's just a question of when. The post-resistance top was really a long gap fill and we've also had three months of consolidation. As everyone who's traded with real money knows, picking the direction and the price is not the hardest, but instead, the timing is the very hardest, and most critical, thing. And in terms of timing, the weekly gives us good cause to believe we're ready to go. We see that late July featured a gap up, which has been filled in and heavily consolidated over the course of five weeks: And thusly, there is significantly reduced reason to believe that Soybeans are set to seek new lows instead of new highs. And indeed, on the daily, what has manifested is a string of higher lows, culminating in this morning's gundown of the 1,400 level A gundown that looks exceptionally turtle soup on the 1H, albeit retrospectively since it already ripped. But note that the rip occurred at 9:00 just before NYSE opens, significant because there are ETFs like SOYB that get caught gap up. More importantly, maybe consider not trying to short the pop. Instead, going long on a pullback could be quite good. And so, in magnifying the timeframe down to the 4H, I discovered that targeting boxes that appeared correct on the wider time frame were a little too shallow on the lower time frames. Thusly, I have generated a "revised" targeting box. However, like I said, time is the harder consideration. I feel ZS will get there, but who knows when? In the meantime, a rundown of the 1,500 level, which corresponds with those August-July relative equal highs around ~1,485 is very realistic. Everyone knows the global food supply is in trouble because of all the drought . Whether it's corn, wheat, soy, or whatever. And while you can certainly expect a new all time high to be made, it's really a question of when. Months like December, January, and February when everything is both trapped in winter, a new calendar year, and people are struggling to pay incredibly high natural gas/electricity bills across the world resulting from problems governments have created since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine this year, may be the more likely time target for 2,000 point Soybeans.
CBOT:ZS1!
by LordWrymouth
3
Wheat Futures - ZW - Like Snakes in a CanSnakes in a can is not a great metaphor for food. Nonetheless, that's the pattern that seems to be developing on wheat futures. All know that the world's food crops are not in good shape. Massive drought tends to kill plants, which ruins harvests, which causes some obvious downside effects in economies. Each year in recent years, we're running out of supply until the next year's harvest arrives, which replenishes the silos, which means that you won't really feel the pain of a bad harvest until the following year. Yay for 2022, not so yay for 2023. 2024 is a dark horizon. On the monthly chart, Wheat ZW swept out the long-term 2008 high in March on the back of the Russian Federation invading Ukraine: It only swept the high, however, and has since corrected, hard. It's specifically notable that despite the massive dump, wheat did not take out the January pivot in either July, or in August's very gentle stop raid. In fact, wheat has spent the better part of two months ranging in this accumulation area, which is bad news for bears and good news for bulls. It's also notable that corn has already had a significant breakout that took out a previous month's high: Corn Futures ZC1 - Spooling Like a Turbo (Too bad I had my compass on backwards for that one and picked that it would go down before it would go up, when it just went up in a straight line. But hey, at least I drew my box in the right place -_-) Contracts of similar category tend to move in the same direction, but at different times, of each other. To be frank, I believe that this means wheat is all but guaranteed to set all new highs. However, it's a question of when. In reality, price is the easy part and time is the hard part. When it comes to "when," at least right now, you can tell from the pattern post-stop raid that we're ready to go somewhere, and that somewhere is probably up. In terms of between now and the end of September, I think that the most realistic targets are July's equal highs at ~845 and July's monthly high at ~940. I believe that a major commodities supercycle lies ahead. Something that will really be fun to trade but painful for reality. But I also believe that a big shakeout is imminent before we go there. For wheat, based on how its traded, this may mean it provides something of a shelter or a safe haven, running bull while many other things correct and dump. As the world gets crazy, keep in mind that no matter how the media and the government howls its narrative, the human race is still ultimately on a planet that orbits a sun and is positioned inside of a very, very, very immense Universe. The more immense the Universe, the less possible it is that we are either the only lives that exist or the highest lives that exist. That is how statistics and probabilities works. And I am not talking about such and such idea of aliens. I am talking about the idea of "Gods," which I do not regard as limited to the Marxist-smeared religious dogma of a giant old white man wearing a robe in the sky judging you when you swear or drink. Instead, to speak of Gods is to simply have a rational understanding about the structure of the Cosmos, its multitudinous dimensions, and those higher lives with power that occupy those dimensions and oversee this human stage during the end of a Cosmic Era. What I am getting at with the above, is that no matter how "chaotic" things get, the chaos is actually a manifest form of order. Things are happening for a reason, are planned both above and below in advance, and no matter how the Earth capsizes and the Sky falls, the tribulation provides an opportunity. The Divine is ultimately in control of where we are headed, and for good people, there is hope. So make sure you maintain your kindness, your conscience, your sense of justice, and your rationality. Do your best, and don't lose heart. In history, humanity's catastrophes, such as famines, have always had a target, and the target has almost never been people who are virtuous and are walking on the traditional path.
CBOT:ZW1!
by LordWrymouth
2
Corn Futures ZC1 - Spooling Like a TurboBecause virtually the whole world is suffering from massive drought this summer, many crops are in bad shape. This is true with the U.S. cotton crop and it's also true with the U.S. corn crop, which according to USDA reports, barely half of is in good or excellent condition as of last week. This is significant because the U.S. is the largest global producer of both, and by a huge margin. This gives good cause to believe that a pump is on the horizon, but when, and how easily will it arrive? The good news is for latecomers is that it seems as if the Ukraine panic pump and dump from April+ bottomed out in July, based on recent price action. "The second mouse gets the cheese." There's a big gap on corn and wheat remaining from the June doom candle, which should transpire as a range that gets eaten into as we head into later September and October. Winter may very well be new all time highs, because the world and humanity is in a lot of trouble. The environment is not in good shape, but to understand what this really means, you have to throw away the leftist-socialist-establishment "carbon" narratives, because those things are not only distractions, but they exist as a Communist Party pretext to take away your Freedom of Movement. But just look at the lack of water and functioning ecosystem and ask yourself how long the happy is going to remain in North America. The situation in Europe is already very dangerous. Regardless, with the way price action has traded this month, it seems likely that corn futures has a good shot of breaking July's high before the end of the month. But it also looks like it may not run in a straight line up and take care of that business on Monday or Tuesday. If you get a retrace into the 597 range, it seems there's a functional trade. However, it's entirely possible that August fails to break July's high. But if you can get out over 640 all the same before the month closes, you'll have done pretty well. As for the rest of that gap above, I don't think we see that until the next commodities supercycle starts, likely beginning to ramp in late September-October. Today is like a turbocharger. They all take a bit to spool. But once they do, it's really fun. Unless you're the one standing in front of the Ferrari.
CBOT:ZC1!
by LordWrymouth
4