WAVE 5 of 5 of 3 topping NOW I did say 5935 to 6012 as focus The alt based on MATH is 6118 to 6211 BUT TIME IS RUNNING OUT IN CYCLE BULL I am 101 % long in the money PUTS and do not fear it !!! NYSI has now formed a HOOK !!!
SP
Wave 4 nearing the end 5703 to 5696 wave 5 5935 plusThe chart posted is the cash sp 500 .I sold longs the other day small gain then moved to a 90 to 100 long puts in the money and sold for a nice gain at 4;15 pm as the min abc down was formed . since then we broke hard the timing from july 16 called for a top and drop . so now what is that the TOP TOP I have an issue with it as it was a low bull sediment and A high short term put.call I see this decline as wave ABC down for wave 4 and should hold 5703 to 5696 and then Turn up We are how ever being held back until the new moon at 8.47 am We should see a very strong move in the direction up to see a print min target 5935 to as high as 6118 with 6012 as the most likely price I will how ever be selling LONGs at 5921 and up and buying in the money puts at these prices . Best of trades WAVETIMER 2024 was a great year again $$$ 43 winning trades flat 8 loss 9
Recession After Fed Rate Cut?Are we heading toward recession? To answer this question, I'm pulling the recession prediction indicator based on GDP provided by FED (ticker:JHGDPBRINKDX) which is the purple color on the bottom chart. It shows that we are on fairly low probability of recession (around 4%) as of end of Aug 2024. The FED indicates it will cut rate on end of Sep 2024.
However, if we look back of history of recession based on GDP indicated by FED data (ticker: JHDUSRGDPBR) which is the pink color. It shows that recession only happen right after FED cut rate as show by lime color (ticker:FEDFUNDS). It hard to believe that recession is caused by the FED cutting rate. Or the FED will only cut rate if we are heading toward recession? At least from the past history of rate cut we can see high chance of recession happening after the FED cut rate. And during the recession we can see that S&P500 are falling. So will there be another crash coming after Sep 2024? Please comments below.
What's S&P500 & Why Needs a Price CorrectionThe S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500) is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is widely regarded as one of the best indicators of the overall health of the U.S. stock market and the economy. The companies included in the index span a wide range of industries, including technology, healthcare, financials, and consumer goods, among others. The index is weighted by market capitalization, meaning larger companies have a greater impact on the index's performance.
Why SP500 needs a Price Correction?
A price correction occurs when the value of a stock or a market index, like the S&P 500, declines by a certain percentage, typically 10% or more, after a sustained period of upward movement. Corrections are a natural part of market cycles and can happen for several reasons. Here are a few reasons why stocks may need to go down in order to make a correction:
1. Overvaluation:
When stocks become overvalued relative to their earnings, assets, or growth potential, a correction helps realign prices with their intrinsic value. Investors may have driven prices too high due to speculation or overly optimistic expectations, and a correction brings valuations back to more reasonable levels.
2. Market Euphoria and Excessive Risk-Taking:
When the market experiences excessive optimism, driven by factors like low-interest rates, easy access to capital, or speculative trading, it can lead to inflated stock prices. A correction serves as a reality check, reducing excessive risk-taking and bringing prices back to sustainable levels.
3. Economic Slowdown or Uncertainty:
Economic indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, or consumer spending can signal a slowdown. If the economy is weakening, companies may struggle to meet earnings expectations, leading to lower stock prices. A correction allows the market to adjust to a new economic reality.
4. Interest Rate Changes:
Rising interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce corporate profits, which can lead to a market correction. Higher rates also make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, prompting investors to reallocate their portfolios, leading to downward pressure on stock prices.
5. Profit-Taking by Investors:
After a strong market rally, investors may start taking profits, especially if they believe prices have peaked. This selling pressure can lead to a correction as stock prices adjust to lower levels.
Conclusion
Corrections are a necessary and healthy part of the market cycle, helping to prevent bubbles from forming and ensuring that stock prices reflect the underlying fundamentals of companies and the economy. Although corrections can be unsettling for investors, they often create buying opportunities and contribute to the long-term stability of the market.
SP500: Bracing for Impact?The crisis is gradually approaching... Global central banks are cutting rates at the fastest pace since the Covid era, according to BofA. The scenario might play out more slowly than shown on the chart, but the essence remains the same.
The upcoming U.S. elections are unlikely to be quiet and peaceful—something big is bound to happen. I'm leaning more towards a downturn.
Is it time to start picking up some Put options? 🤔🤔🤔
SPx Amid Focus on Fed Decision, ADP Jobs Report, & Meta Earning Stock Index Futures Rise as Focus Shifts to Fed, U.S. ADP Jobs Report, and Meta Earnings
S&P 500 Analysis: Consolidation Expected Today
The market is poised for potential volatility as traders await the Federal Reserve's rate decision, the U.S. ADP jobs report, and Meta's earnings. The S&P 500 is expected to consolidate today, with key movements influenced by these events.
Bullish Scenario: If the price remains stable above 5,491, it is likely to reach 5,512. Breaking above this level could push the price further to 5,549.
Bearish Scenario: A reversal and stabilization below 5,491 could lead to a decline towards 5,460.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5,491
- Resistance Levels: 5,512, 5,525, 5,549
- Support Levels: 5,460, 5,438, 5,409
Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support level at 5,460 and the resistance level at 5,550.
S&P Futures Market Simple Trading Plans - Reacting To FEDHere's a detailed video on how to make use of market sentiment early on.
If you are looking for value investor longs, you'd need sentiment to feed in further and drop the price of the SPX.
For shorts, you'd need continued sentiment to support a downside case. More would need to follow post Fed Member Goolsbee regarding jobs/inflation.
S&P 500: Approaching All-Time High or Facing Reversal?S&P 500 Analysis: All-Time High or Reversal?
The S&P 500 is exhibiting strong bullish momentum at the start of the second quarter earnings season. This bullish sentiment is expected to drive a general upward trend with potential rotations.
Bullish Scenario:
To sustain the bullish momentum, the price needs to stabilize above the pivot line at 5620, potentially reaching 5672 and 5688.
Bearish Scenario:
Conversely, if the price drops and stabilizes below 5620, it would indicate a bearish trend, potentially leading to declines towards 5585 and 5550.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5640
- Resistance Levels: 5670, 5688, 5715
- Support Levels: 5620, 5585, 5550
Today's Expected Trading Range:
Today's trading range is anticipated to be between the resistance at 5688 and the support at 5550.
previous idea:
S&P 500: Navigating Volatility with Key Price levels & ScenariosS&P 500 Analysis: Navigating Volatility with Key Price Levels and Scenarios
Stability under the pivot line which is 5525 means there will be a bearish trend toward 5491, but still has a bullish volume to get 5549. so above it means will start a new all-time high
Bullish Scenario:
Stability above 5525 means it will reach 5550 and should be stabilized above 5550 to continue the bullish trend around 5600.
Bearish Scenario:
Stability under 5525 means will drop to get 5510 and 5491, and ADP will affect on the market today and it's possible to get 5460 as well, by closing 4h candle under 5491
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5525
- Resistance Levels: 5550, 5585, 5620
- Support Levels: 5491, 5460, 5440
Today's Expected Trading Range:
The anticipated trading range for today is between the resistance at 5550 and the support at 5491.
S&P500 Index / Balancing Bullish Trends with Cautious OptimismS&P 500 Index Technical Analysis
Current Market Overview:
The S&P 500 index recently reversed and stabilized within a bullish zone after closing a 4-hour candle above the critical level of 5491. This development suggests a potential bullish trend towards 5529 in the near term.
Intraday Analysis:
Today, it is expected that the price will remain stable above 5491, sustaining the bullish momentum towards 5529 and potentially reaching 5550.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as the price continues to trade above the pivot zone, defined between 5491 and 5472, we anticipate further upward movement towards 5529 and 5550.
Bearish Scenario:
For a bearish trend to initiate, the price must first stabilize below 5491. Should it close a 4-hour candle under 5472, this would signal the start of a bearish trend.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5491
- Resistance Levels: 5506, 5529, 5550
- Support Levels: 5472, 5440, 5410
Today's Expected Trading Range:
The anticipated trading range for today lies between the resistance at 5530 and the support at 5472.
In summary, maintaining a position above the pivot zone supports a bullish outlook, with potential targets at 5529 and 5550. Conversely, a breach below 5491, followed by a close under 5472, would indicate a shift towards a bearish trend.
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Cautious Markets Temper Tech Enthusiasm
A mix of caution ahead of a U.S. inflation reading, renewed enthusiasm in tech stocks driven by Nvidia's resurgence, and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials has resulted in a market searching for direction.
Traders are hesitant to make significant moves ahead of Friday's crucial release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Economists surveyed by Reuters anticipate that annual growth will slow to 2.6% in May, the lowest rate in over three years.
Until the PCE data is released, market participants are closely monitoring comments from Federal Reserve officials. So far, policymakers are advocating for patience, emphasizing that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates, thereby dampening any excitement about potential rate cuts.
SPx continues to move towards a new bullish area.S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 (SPX) has maintained its bullish trend as anticipated and continues to move towards a new bullish area.
Intraday Analysis:
Today, the price may stabilize above 5502 to continue the bullish trend towards 5530 and 5550.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as the price trades above 5502, the bullish trend is likely to continue, targeting 5530 and 5550. There is also a possibility of a price correction down to 5480 before pushing up again.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price drops and stabilizes below 5479, it may enter a downtrend towards 5438 and 5410.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5502
- Resistance Levels: 5530, 5550, 5595
- Support Levels: 5479, 5440, 5410
Today's Expected Trading Range:
The anticipated movement range for today is between the resistance at 5550 and the support at 5479.
Summary:
Maintaining a position above 5479 supports a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5479 indicates a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5438 and below.
S&P 500 Hit Record Highs for Third Consecutive Day!!!S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 ( OANDA:SPX500USD ) has continued its bullish trend as anticipated, successfully reaching the projected targets.
With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) result being released at 3.3% as we expected, the index tested its final resistance level of 5450.
Intraday Analysis:
Today, the price may stabilize within the bearish zone, attempting to break through the pivot line at 5423.
Bullish Scenario:
The price is likely to consolidate between 5423 and 5450. A breakout above 5450 would activate the next bullish trend, targeting 5484.
Bearish Scenario:
Should the price close a 4-hour or 1-hour candle below 5423, it is expected to decline towards 5384 and potentially 5372, thereby reaching the demand zone.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5423
- Resistance Levels: 5450, 5484, 5520
- Support Levels: 5383, 5347, 5320
Today's Expected Trading Range:
The anticipated movement range for today is between the resistance at 5450 and the support at 5372.
In summary, maintaining a position above 5450 supports a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5423 indicates a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5372.
Previous idea:
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Hit Record Highs for Third Consecutive Day Amid Fed's Interest Rate Forecast
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, driven by unexpectedly mild inflation data. However, these indexes retreated from their intraday peaks following the Federal Reserve's announcement that it projects only one interest rate cut this year.
In a significant shift from its March projections, which included three quarter-percentage-point reductions, the Fed concluded its June 11-12 meeting by stating it would leave its policy rate unchanged, as anticipated by the market.
The stock market experienced volatility after the news and the subsequent press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pared their gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day nearly flat.
Stocks opened higher after the Labor Department reported that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unexpectedly unchanged in May, due to a decline in gasoline prices. This softer inflation data initially fueled market optimism.
"The CPI number was certainly cooler than estimates and drove optimism to start the day, but that was only half of today's menu," noted Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles.
The mixed signals from the inflation data and the Fed's cautious stance on interest rate cuts created a complex trading environment, leaving investors to navigate between optimism and uncertainty.
SPX Continues Its Bullish Trend (CPI + FED RATE)SP500 Index Technical Analysis
SPX Continues Its Bullish Trend
The price successfully retested and pushed higher, reaching our previously mentioned target.
Today's Outlook:
The market is maintaining its bullish trend, aiming for approximately 5420. The release of the CPI data today will significantly impact the market. A CPI reading below 3.4% is expected to be positive for indices, potentially driving the SPX to a new all-time high.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as trades above 5372 means will continue the bullish trend toward 5420
Bearish Scenario:
If the price trades below 5372, it indicates a potential drop towards 5347. A breach of 5347 could further lead to 5320. Stabilizing below 5301 would activate the downward area, with the next target at 5260.
- Pivot Line: 5372
- Resistance Levels: 5404, 5422, 5484
- Support Levels: 5347, 5320, 5301
Today's Expected Trading Range:
- Support: 5320
- Resistance: 5480
In summary, maintaining a position above 5347 favors a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5347 suggests a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5320 and 5301.
Our Previous idea:
SPX Continues Bullish Trend After RetestSPX Continues Bullish Trend After Retest
The SPX has completed its retest and subsequently pushed higher, maintaining its bullish trend. As long as the index trades above the key levels of 5347 and 5320, the bullish momentum is expected to continue. This week, the SPX is projected to reach the initial target of 5378, with the potential to advance further towards 5423.
Bullish Scenario:
the price has a bullish trend to reach 5378 as long as trades above 5347, breaking 5378 means will continue the bullish trend to get 5423
Bearish Scenario:
If the price trades below 5347, it indicates a potential drop towards 5320. A breach of 5320 could further lead to 5301. Stabilizing below 5301 would activate the bearish area, with the next target at 5260.
Key Level
- Pivot Line: 5347
- Resistance Levels: 5378, 5400, 5423
- Support Levels: 5320, 5301, 5260
Today's Expected Trading Range:
- Support: 5320
- Resistance: 5420
In summary, maintaining a position above 5347 favors a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5347 suggests a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5320 and 5301.
SPx (JOB OPPERTIOUNITIES) Strong Volatile Technical Analysis of SPx
The price dropped from the price we mentioned in the previous idea and already stabilized under the support line which is 5260, so it is possible to touch 5226 and 5193 as well,
Bearish Scenario: As long as the price remains below 5260, it is likely to decline towards 5226.
Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend to emerge, the price must stabilize above 5260, potentially pushing up to 5302. If the price surpasses this level, it may indicate the start of a new bullish trend of about 5347.
Pivot Line: 5260
Resistance Levels: 5301, 5321, 5350
Support Levels: 5226, 5193, 5170
Today’s expected trading range is between the support at 5193 and the resistance at 5320.
SPx-Stocks Set to Open Higher on Rate Cut Bets and Key Jobs DataStocks Poised to Open Higher Amid Increased Rate Cut Bets and Key U.S. Jobs Data
U.S. rate futures indicate a 0.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy meeting later this month and a 14.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the July meeting.
The highlight of the upcoming week will be the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for May. Additionally, market participants will be closely monitoring other economic data releases, including U.S. JOLTs Job Openings, Factory Orders, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, S&P Global Composite PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, Exports, Imports, Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Average Hourly Earnings, Wholesale Inventories, and the Unemployment Rate.
Technical Analysis of SPx
The price is likely to attempt to reach 5306, after which it is expected to follow a bearish trend towards 5260. Overall, the price is anticipated to consolidate between 5306 and 5261 until a breakout occurs.
Bearish Scenario: If the price remains below 5306, it is likely to decline towards 5260.
Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend to emerge, the price must stabilize above 5320, potentially pushing up to 5347. If the price surpasses this level, it may indicate the start of a new bullish trend with further gains.
Pivot Line: 5305
Resistance Levels: 5320, 5347, 5390
Support Levels: 5260, 5226, 5193
Today’s expected trading range is between the support at 5260 and the resistance at 5320.
Top Earnings Growers in the S&P 500 Energy SectorFastest Earnings Growers in the S&P 500 Energy Sector
Nearly half the companies in the S&P 500 energy sector are expected to achieve double-digit annual earnings growth.
Updated : ConocoPhillips announced its acquisition of Marathon Oil Corp. on Wednesday.
Energy stocks are currently undervalued relative to expected earnings, even though the sector has been the best performer in the S&P 500 over the past three years.
Last month, we examined all 23 stocks in the S&P 500 energy sector for their returns on invested capital over the previous three years. With Exxon Mobil's recent acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources on May 3, the sector now comprises 22 stocks. Further consolidation is underway, with ConocoPhillips agreeing to acquire Marathon Oil Corp., and Hess Corp. set to be acquired by Chevron Corp. in a $53 billion deal.
Sector Valuations and Growth Rates
The energy sector remains the least expensive of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, despite its high three-year total return. However, it has the worst 10-year return, reflecting the oil price crash from mid-2014 to early 2016 and investor reluctance to re-engage with the sector.
Chip Stocks Dominate S&P 500 for the First Time
Chip stocks have surpassed software stocks to hold the largest sector weighting in the S&P 500, reflecting optimism about the semiconductor sector's financial prospects due to artificial intelligence advancements and concerns over budget pressures in the software industry.
Strategas strategist Todd Sohn noted that the chip sector's 11% weight in the S&P 500 marked a new high, up from just 2% in early 2014. The combined weight of the top five sectors reached 27%, the highest in 44 years of data.
Conversely, the software sector faces challenges, with Mizuho analyst Jordan Klein highlighting delayed deals and cautious spending due to the macroeconomic climate. Salesforce Inc. exemplified these issues, with its stock plummeting after management reduced its forecast and discussed budget scrutiny.
Technically analyse:
SPx (Affect of GDP...)Technical analysis of SPx
The price dropped from its resistance line at 5320 and is now consolidating between 5266 and 5226. Today, we anticipate significant market volatility with the GDP results expected at 1.2%. The price will likely touch 5266 before dropping towards 5226.
If the price stabilizes below 5226, it will support a further decline towards 5192, entering a bearish territory. Conversely, breaking above 5266 will support a rise towards 5300 and 5320.
Pivot Line: 5266
Resistance Levels: 5285, 5305, 5325
Support Levels: 5226, 5193, 5160
Today’s expected trading range is between the support at 5192 and the resistance at 5266.
previous idea:
SPx (Another Bear will come...)SPx New Forecast
The price of the S&P 500 reversed from its support line at 5266 and can now reach the resistance line at approximately 5305, with the potential to touch 5320 as well.
If the price remains below 5305 and 5320, it will likely fall back to the support line at 5266. Breaking this level could extend the bearish trend towards 5226.
Pivot Line: 5305
Resistance Levels: 5325, 5350, 5400
Support Levels: 5266, 5227, 5193
Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5266 and the resistance 5325.
SPx (Near to the another new record)SPx New Forecast
The price of the S&P 500 reached the resistance line, and breaking this resistance, will support the price to reach the next resistance line which is 5350,
If the price remains below 5305 and 5320, it will likely fall back to the support line at 5266. Breaking this level could extend the bearish trend towards 5226.
Pivot Line: 5305
Resistance Levels: 5325, 5350, 5400
Support Levels: 5266, 5227, 5193
Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5266 and the resistance 5350.
SPx (it looks bullish)SPX500 New Forecast
The price is expected to attempt to reach the resistance level at 5360. It may correct down to 5304 before resuming its bullish trend.
As long as the price remains above 5320 and 5304, the bullish trend is likely to continue towards 5360. If the price breaks through this level, it is anticipated to reach 5390 and potentially 5480.
Pivot Line: 5313
Resistance Levels: 5360, 5390, 5480
Support Levels: 5293, 5266, 5226
Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5281 and the resistance 5360.
another megaphoneLike in other actions, AMEX:SPY is no exception. I believe a megaphone has been created that will be looking to break its resistance to continue its upward trend
Hypothetical Pullback Jan 8th pullback in the S&P to 4220
This is an estimated pullback using the same timeframe we saw while hitting resistance last week
