SP
SPY Short term targets with breakouta to the upside 205 then 208Looks like SPY wants to go to 208 based on measuring height of double bottom coil and trend line at 208
If SPY breaks out above 203 to the upside 205 then 208 could be targets
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SP500 first crash and then to heaven?Fibonacci target 1,618 achieved. Now correction! Short.
Buy stocks at 1550-1600 or at 1250.
If this curve becomes true, inflation will turn into hyper inflation!
SP500 up or down?Triangle is closing. Was the best buying chance in Feb or is it still coming?
I think we aren't going higher than 2100 anymore
SPX500 DAILY chart - signs of toppingTHE END OF THE 2ND BAT / W?
- .786 fib retracement from our highs since the 225 tick move down in August (2116.75)
- Top of our "tidy channel"
- Smaller green candles each rising day shows weakning momentum, doji showing indecision
- Loads of price action between 2100 and 1800:
- As of now, short at the top of this channel, long at the bottom, unbiased in the middle
- Expecting the unexpected on a day-day basis, though short for now
- RSI and MACD have reached levels that were last seen in our October rally
- In the days following these technicals:
- The RSI took 8 days to get to it's "happy medium" at 40
- The MACDs crossed 3 days later, beginning their descent down to 0, and eventually -48, converging only twice
- The two convergences of the MACDs were lower highs, followed by lower lows, watch for a similar pattern should we stick in this "tidy channel"
- Keep in mind, the daily 200ma isn't our strongest, and given a couple tests can be punctured, as seen between October and January
and as always, please feel free to discuss :)
happy trading!
Distribution Top S&P 500Rounding top, descending triangle or a rectangle distribution top. Neutral until formation break, negative bias due to distribution top.
SPX Massive ABCD pattern? WeeklyJust thought I'd post this to see what you guys think, I think we should see this finalize in the 2040 area, with the highest potential of 2050 as a massive short squeeze . . . share your thoughts and charts, happy trading!
S&P 500 - Short - Weekly/Daily It's not over yet.
Possible short S & P 500 if trendline breaks
If trendline holds, buy-the-dip
S&P 500 offering a triangle for Christmas?Menu for Christmas:
- FED offers a rate hike;
- Santa Claus offers a little triangle.
Amazon's Periodic HabitsOn the log scale, there's a clear trend channel. However, the action that occurs within each quarter varies predictably-- after about 40 days into the quarter, any trend that has formed gets broken. Green vertical lines are a day after quarterly reports, white lines are when the trend for that period gets broken. Arrows are overall market events, which cause anomalies in the charting. My prediction at this point is that since we broke out of a longer pattern (light blue line), it will follow the angle of the trend channel until the next overarching trend emerges, as it did starting 9/4/15, where the longer pattern (red line) ended.
S&P 500 Looking Bearish.............1. Bat Pattern completed on 3-Nov, Went Down After that but again bounced back.
2. Bearish Divergence in Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts.
3. FED meeting in December, Consumer Confidence & GDP Data on 24-Nov Employment on 4 Dec, Stocks tend to fall 20 days Prior to FED meeting (Just an Observation).
Scenario 1 - S&P will hit 20 Degree Slope @ 2100 and will Return (20-27 degree slope and 50-59 degree slope are very common in trend).
Scenario 2 - S&P will Make New High of 2160 & will Crash.
How about a breakThe $ES is looking weak. The bounces have been feeble and with low volume. What started as a wedge has evolved into a flag and this points to lower prices. We WILL NOT take the break of the flag. We will wait for the break and look for pullbacks on a smaller time frame (60 min) to trigger us short. NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!
"Crazy" Choppy Crabby Market - But Bullish For Next Week!Bearish Crab
This is the bullish argument!
It's a must for the bulls to make a higher high.... full stop or a lower high has been put in.
This chart support the weekly chart (see link below) for a ending EW diagonal ending at 2158.
At that level the price have made a overthrow of the upper trendline in the ED but is fully valid.
Notations on chart!
TWUC
@BlawrenceM
Follow me on Twitter for intraday updates and scalp plays
Music at work:
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A New "Cupid's Arrow"..... Broken Arrow Update 2Cupid just shot an Arrow
New eyes on Broken Arrow. Count has ben lowered 1 degree.
The Ending Diagonal looks more right and more harmonic on the weekly chart.
See links below.
You may ask... but...but what about. The Ending Diagonal allows a overthrow in the 5th wave. That is what we are seing.
Why this "overthrow? Because bulls need to be convinced off clear blue sky is ahead and be willing to go all in on longs.
Yes market is having a tug of war... but do not go short before we hear bulls exhale!
Confluence zone speaks for itself!
T.W.U.C (Trade What You See)
@BLawrenceM
Follow me on Twitter for intraday updates and scal plays...thx!
Music at work:
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open.spotify.com
SP is "Cryin' Overtime" Before Broken ArrowBullish Count
Within the Elliott Wave ending diagonal!
The chart I call Broken Arrow this is what I see could happen.
It's been one messy chop - almost impossible to count.
But from the dark emerge this bullish possibility!
The SP has made a wave 4 bottom at 2070 as a double zig-zag and now carving out the last 5th wave.
Why... I can't count latest down move as a 5 wave down.. it "looks" corrective...and it is - in my opinion.
Important notations on the chart
Trade what you see
Follow me on twitter - I do more intraday updates there!
@BLawrenceM
Music at work:
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SPX - the big grey zone (of resistance) and possible top of spx As long as SPX does NOT go up through the "big grey zone" this should be THE top of the current bullmarket of SPX since march of 2009 (6 years back).
This grey area represents a fibonacci ext level all the way back from 666/667.
So if not taken out...welcome to the coming bear market.
Disclaimer: a possible QE4 from the FED could negate this idea, inflating the asset bubble to even higher level (with a possible max around 2200-2222)
SP "FADED" from the top 3 or 5 waves down?Chart is done...worked.. Price has moved on Thanks for the thumbs up!!!
Corrective waves is a-b-c and not 5 waves.
I was looking for a 3 wave retrace down for a b-leg retrace, but looks more and more like a 5 wave structure.
Time will tell. Remember this instrument is a derivative of the SP500.
Therefore expect some differences.
Fear not... believe what you see and trade it.
@BLawrenceM
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BROKEN ARROW... We were trading soldiersBroken Arrow
SP are in the final stages of wave 5 in an Ending Diagonal ...just before "Broken Arrow".
The chart above shows the final A-B-C in an Elliott Wave count having 5 waves up from 666,79
As FED-chair Ms.Yellen just proclaimed for the 2nd time... Stocks are overvalued.
First time was the signal for preparing - cause FEDs trading desk will pull out and
switch off bullish price control.
Now it's serious meant you have a fortnight maximum if not less.
The A-wave up came this fridayand tested the 88,6 retrace of the latest swing high and low
From there ( monday or tuesday I see SP will have a shallow B-wave before the final C-wave.
The C-wave will possibly bring the SP to 2138.04 - the 1.618 extension of the
2007 high at 1,576.09 to 666.79 - 2009 low and leave ....a Broken Arrow.
I'm not short or long... will keep my powder dry for the short or trade other instruments than the indexes.
Fear not... believe what you see and trade it.
@BLawrenceM
Music at work:
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open.spotify.com
Broken Arrow?
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S&P 500 Historical ReviewAlright, I don't like to be that guy that always thinks that he's smarted than everyone else and likes to try to predict the next big market downturn. Nor do I like to be that guy that writes the previous sentence to feign humility all the while thinking he's doing God's work (Lloyd Blankfein). That being said, here's a chart with two distinct patterns that preceded a market crash. Make of it what you will.
We see price wedges at the two preceding market tops with RSI and volume trending down while it is forming.
SPY churns at high under significant fibonacci level$SPY average trade size picked up in wks 2 & 3 of February leading to weakening in the S&P 500. Now churning between $213.40 resistance & $207 - 208 support. I would expect much churn back and forth ahead of FED rate (possible tightening) announcements. Likely distribution for many months up here.
E-mini S&P futures churning above support.$ES_F still above support with churn and holding. Rollover is coming. Pro positioning will be key. #2 Excess supply sig on 2015.02.25. Major macro econ events (FED rates) coming that will affect equities.
RIG back to $22RIG is coming of divergence that sent price breaking resistance with momentum confirming the move higher by also making higher highs. RIG has since pulled back to a .618 retracement. I am looking for price to move past its most recent leg higher and test the 127 projection of this leg. With stops placed below the most recent swing point low, this trade offers a very nice risk/reward ratio.
