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Sp500analysis

SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% SPX, 40% Cash. **Happy Thanksgiving. Thank you for reading, I hope I've helped you navigate the markets in 2022. Through helping you, it has helped me develop a better understanding of what moves markets and I'm grateful.** *Tomorrow is a short day for trading with US stock markets closing at 1pm and Bond markets closing at 2pm. Equity Markets are still riding the "Fed pivot" narrative that has been flourishing since the FOMC Minutes were published yesterday but it's important to remember that Russia is continuing to weaken Ukraine's power grid and that war and supply chain disruptions can escalate at any given time. Binance CEO CZ announced that Binance.US is making another bid for bankrupt crypto lender Voyager after FTX was unable to complete the acquisition . Binance also announced a 1B BUSD crypto recovery fund (Industry Recovery Initiative) for companies seeking support during the crypto winter . CZ is preaching transparency and even listed the public address for Binance's initial commitment of 1B BUSD, which sounds good in theory but to be honest everyone should be a bit wary of exchange tokens right now; I think it's justifiable to be skeptical of Binance's solvency but as of now it's between them, Coinbase and Kraken when it comes to the top 3 crypto exchanges. There's not too much going on in terms of key economic data until next Wednesday. US Equity Futures, DXY, Oil, Gold, N100, GBPUSD, EURUSD and JPYUSD are up. US Treasury Bonds, Cryptos, Natural Gas, CNYUSD, NI225 and HSI are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 11/29; 2nd BEA Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am EST 11/30; Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at Brookings Institute at 130pm EST 11/30; Beige Book at 2pm EST 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; November Employment Situation at 830am EST 12/02; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14. * Price finished yesterday's session trending up at $4027 as it approaches a test of $4058 minor resistance which coincides with the 200MA. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored buyers for the previous two sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3844, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 62, the next resistance is at 68.42. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 82 as it approaches a retest of max top (it's currently in the "bullish autobahn zone"). MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 61 as it attempts to break above 55.35 minor resistance; if it can do this it will aim to retest the ATH at 92.49. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 20 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment and would become strongly bullish if it can continue this correlation above 25. If Price is able to push higher here then it will likely test $4058 minor resistance which would coincide with the 200MA. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3953.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Bullish technical conditions S&P 500 Index Technical conditions: The +5.7% price jump on November 10th could be viewed by technical analysis as a “Flag pole” since the recent seven day price consolidation (daily chart) suggests a “textbook” bull flag continuation pattern is forming. The bullish theme seems to be holding with higher tops and lower bottoms on price since finding support at the October 13th lows near 3,489. Current price 4,005 with resistance (1) spotted near the November 15th highs around 4,050 and resistance (2) near 4,100 (round number). Therefore, from a technical view, long positions could be supported for the short term (5-25 days) provided price can remain above the 3,865 support for upside potential at 4,050 and 4,100 in extension.
SKILLING:SPX500Long
by Skilling
S&P500 / VIX - Black Swan Incoming? 🔮Taking a look at the SP500 Daily with our US Equity Gaps indicator, next to the VIX Weekly. Looking back to the start of 2022, we can see a series of "controlled" selling, on our grind from the 4700s, down to 3500-3600.📉 Compare that to the VIX, we can see the stock market has yet to experience a true black swan. See the 2020 mega spike in the VIX. Whether it's due to geopolitical tensions, financial data, etc., we'll see. But you can almost feel that the market is teetering on a knife's edge. Or at least that's how we feel! 😬 Throw these against the Equity Gaps indicator, and it shows we have plenty to fill to the downside.🤯 Who knows. Maybe we're just being cynical. However, we feel there's a 10-30% downside vs a smaller 1-5% upside. If that's the case, we're happy to be sitting on our hands for the time being. -TucciNomics Chief Overlord, AlgoBuddy
TVC:VIXShort
by QuantVue
Future predictions (2023) Fundamental: The inflation havent reached consumers yet, we have had money (savings) from Covid. We will see more "cold" winter now, as the inflation finally starts to decrease the purchasing power. The inflation decreases but not quick enough and debt will be taken. There is a possibility to a bigger recession if the debt is too much for banking systems (Unemployment rate, rate of interest, inflation, credit quality) Technical: Top to bottom percentages (S&P 500, approx every decade) 28% 60s/50% 70s/36% 80s/20% 90s/50% 20s/57% 21s (average 40%. 27% now, we have reasons to go lower) These dates and prices are based on past, not super accurate, but with these there were least inconsistencies Based on human psychology and cycles we tend to have (bigger picture, decade and century cycle), we havent seen that much yet. We need bigger crisis or there will be next one coming, the cycle is in progress, there is "nothing" to recover from right now. Sorry about narrow analysis, I am not the type to write own analysis, also there is no words or pictures to describe the full database I have on my mind! Hopefully you still enjoy and comment your thoughts, Best regards: Malmberg Jami
SP:SPX
by SuomiJamppa
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% SPX, 52% Cash. * MINOR DOWNWARD CORRECTION WATCH . Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Oil, Agriculture, NI225, EURUSD, GBPUSD and JPYUSD are all down. DXY, Long-Term US Treasuries, VIX, Gold, Natural Gas, HSI and CNYUSD are up. US President Biden and China President Jinping met today for 3 hours in Bali ending months of limited communication between the two countries after US House Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan in August. It ended with Biden promising to defend Japan, South Korea and U.S. interests from North Korea while reaffirming U.S. support for Taiwan's military; and Jinping making it clear that China-Taiwan relations are a red line that must not be crossed by the U.S. The Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal is set to expire on 11/19. Key Upcoming Dates: Fourth GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate 11/16; US October Retail Sales at 830am EST 11/16; US October Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 11/17; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 . * Price is currently trending down at $3957 after breaking above $3913 minor support last week. Volume remains High (low) and broke a two day streak of buyer dominance with a red close in today's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3715, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 59 after forming a short-term peak at 62, the next support is at 52.68. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 76 with no signs of peak formation, the next resistance is max top. MACD is currently trending up at 40 with signs of a soft peak formation and is still technically testing 33 resistance. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 18 while Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest $4058 minor resistance which should coincide with the 200MA. However, if Price continues to fall here, it will likely retest $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4000.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
S&P500 Analysis 13.11.2022Welcome to the BasicTrading channel. My name is Philip and in todays analysis I quickly go over the situation which we currently have on the S&P500. I will analyse the asset both from a weekly and daily timeframe to show you the best possible trading opportunities. If you enjoyed this analysis, let me know in the comment section which asset I should analyse tomorrow. I will personally reply to every single comment. Dont forget to smash that rocket and I will see you tomorrow with a new analysis.
FX:SPX500
by basictradingtv
7
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% SPX, 40% Cash. * October CPI rose 0.4%, the same increase as in September ; but what moved markets was that Core CPI rose 0.3% compared to 0.6% in September. Such an impulsive rally after one dovish CPI print is hardly sustainable in a bear market; however, if the UofM Sentiment Survey tomorrow is bullish and Russia renews their grain deal with Ukraine on 11/19, this rally may be able to continue into the PCE report on 12/01. Equities finished up in today's session and Equity Futures, Oil, Agriculture, DXY, Long-Term US Treasuries, HSI, NI225 and CNYUSD are up. Cryptos are correcting after many experienced a ~20% rally in today's session. VIX, Natural Gas, Gold, JPYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are down. Russia ordered their citizens to evacuate Kherson City in anticipation of a Ukrainian shelling that would level the whole city, this of course is probably another False Flag operation because Ukraine likely has no interest in destroying their own infrastructure. Ukrainian military officials cast their doubts over such a retreat and think it's a ploy to lure Ukrainian soldiers into a central location to maximize inflicted damage. Key Upcoming Dates: UofM November US Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; Fourth GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate 11/16; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 . * Price finished today's session trending up at $3956, it's still technically testing $3913 minor resistance and will need to close above it in tomorrow's session to help confirm bullishness; considering that Price appears to be legitimately breaking above the 50MA for the first time since 07/19, it may test it as support before continuing higher. Volume finished the session High (moderate) and obviously after a bullish CPI when inflation is the number one market focus, it favored buyers; Price is trading in the second largest supply/demand zone on the chart. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3700, this is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 60 with no signs of peak formation as it approaches a retest of $4058 minor resistance. Stochastic resisted a bearish crossover in Wednesday's session and is currently trending up at 60, it's still technically testing 48 minor resistance. MACD remains bullish after also resisting a bearish crossover in Wednesday's session and is currently trending up at 21 as it attempts to confirm a break above 11 minor resistance. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 17 as Price has been pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to flip $3913 minor resistance to support then the next likely target is a retest of $4058 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down below $3913 minor resistance , it will likely retest ~$3855 as support before potentially falling lower to test the 50MA as support at ~$3800 . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3913.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. * CRITICAL RESISTANCE WATCH . US midterm elections are tomorrow and the Republicans appear poised to take the House and Senate, if this happens then a short-term rally would likely ensue leading up to the CPI report on Thursday. Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Metals, US Treasury Bonds, VIX, GBPUSD, EURUSD and JPYUSD are up. DXY, CNYUSD, Energy and Agriculture are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US Midterm Congress Elections 11/08; Third GDPNow US Q4 GDP Estimate 11/09; US October CPI at 830am EST 11/10; UofM November Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 .* Price is currently retesting the lower trendline of the descending channel from July 2021 at ~$3775 as resistance which is just below the 50MA (~$3800). Volume is currently Moderate (moderate) and on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3900, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 50 as it approaches a test of 52.68 resistance. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at 27, the next support is at 18.32. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending sideways at 6.5, it's still technically testing 10.73 minor resistance but if it crosses below 0 it would be a bearish crossover (there are two support levels just below at -5 and -11). ADX is currently trending down slightly at 18.5 as Price attempts to push higher, until a trough is formed this correlation is mildly bearish. If Price is able to recapture support at the lower trendline of the descending channel from July 2021 at ~$3775 and break above the 50MA at ~$3800 as resistance , then it will likely aim to retest $3913 minor resistance . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest $3658 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3770.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% SPX, 70% Cash. * The Fed stayed on their path of moving to restrictive monetary policy and raised the funds rate by 75bps to 3.75%-4% . DXY, US Treasuries and Agriculture are up while Cryptos, Equities, Equity Futures, Metals, Energy, CNYUSD, JPYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are all down. Fed Chair Powell mentioned that more rate hikes are to come but that they would likely consider slowing the rate of increases in the coming meetings. FFR speculators are currently betting on a 50bps rate hike on 12/14/22 but economic data between now and then may force the Fed to contemplate another 75bps. In timely fashion, Russia resumed its arrangement with Ukraine to allow them to use Black Sea shipping corridors for grain and fertilizer shipments but Putin mentioned that they can withdraw again if Ukraine "breaches the deal" by striking Russia in these corridors. Putin also mentioned that in this situation, Russia would supply the poorest countries with grain from their own stock; he also stated that Russia would stop short of blocking Ukraine grain shipments to Turkey. In Israel, right-wing former PM Netanyahu is expected to be reelected as PM in the coming days. Speculators see this as as a positive counter to Iran's recent support for Russia and revival of their nuclear missile program but a negative for Palestinian peace talks . Key Upcoming Dates: October Employment Situation at 830am (EST) 11/04; US October CPI at 830am EST 11/10; UofM November Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30.* Price is currently testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 as support at ~$3780 after getting rejected by $3938 minor resistance and breaking back down below the 50MA (~$3825). Volume remains High (low) and has favored sellers the past three consecutive sessions; Price was rejected by the POC (VP) at around $3938 minor resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3688, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 48.5 and is at risk of losing 52.68 support if it doesn't bounce soon, the next support is the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~43 as support. Stochastic remains bearish after a failed bullish crossover attempt and is currently testing 76.29 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending down at 15.5 as it continues to technically test 10.73 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 20 as Price attempts to keep pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will have to reclaim support of the 50MA at ~$3825 before it is able to formally retest $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3658 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3825.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
S&P500 showing all time highs thanks to 200MAIn the weekly chart of the S&P500, we can see the price has been on a continuous uptrend since 2011. It’s moved from 1,170 up to a high of 4,834. One indicator that I believe has helped this uptrend, the squiggly black line. This is the one and only 200 Day Moving Average. This is the indicator that all investors and traders take note of. When the price is above the 200MA, the price is in a bull market. And when the price is below the 200MA the price is in a bear market. It is clear to us that since 2011, the 200MA has been a trampoline for the S&P500. Each time the price touches, not only does it rally. It goes beyond to new all time highs. And guess what happened last month? It touched, and we got our rally. On top of that, we have Falling Wedge in the chart (Triangle formation). This is where the demand and supply drops, where the market consolidates before the next leg up. As we’ve had our 200MA price touch, we can expect the S&P 500 to rally to a target of 4,834.
SP:SPXLong
by Timonrosso
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. * CRITICAL RESISTANCE TEST . US Midterm elections take place in a little over a week (11/08) and markets are bracing for the FOMC statement on FFR at 2pm on 11/02. Equity Futures are down while Cryptos are mixed and seeing a case of the Sunday Scaries. The Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng are currently up so it gives a bit of hope to US equities in the morning. Russia continues with its pause on the Black Sea grain deal which puts food supply chains at risk in the coming months leading into winter. As Elon Musk's Twitter deal completes, Twitter is to begin charging $20 a month for the blue check (account verification) . Brazil elects left-wing underdog Lula as President after serving two terms as Brazil's President from 2003-2010. Key Upcoming Dates: 2nd GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate 11/ 01 ; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02; October Employment Situation at 830am (EST) 11/04; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30.* Price is currently breaking back above the 50MA and is trending up at ~$3900 after bouncing off of the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3790. Volume remains High (low) and has favored buyers in five of the past six sessions as Price tests the Point of Control (VP) at $3915 as resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3600, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 60 after bouncing off of 52.68 support, the next resistance is at 68.42. Stochastic remains bearish in the "bullish autobahn zone" for two consecutive sessions and is completing a trough formation at ~89.5, it would experience a bullish crossover at ~90 where it would then likely retest max top. MACD is currently trending up at ~6.8 with no signs of peak formation as it approaches a test of 10.73 minor resistance for the first time since July 2022; it's also still technically testing the weak uptrend line from March 2020 at around -11.45 resistance. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 23 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to keep pushing higher then it will likely formally retest $3938 minor resistance before potentially retesting the 100MA at ~$4100 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here then it will likely test the 50MA at ~$3840 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3780.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
2
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% SPX, 40% Cash. * 50MA RESISTANCE TEST . Equity Futures, Hang Seng (Hong Kong) Index, Cryptos, DXY, US Treasuries and JPY are up while CNYUSD, GPBUSD and EURUSD are down. Equities and Commodities finished today's session higher. US September New Home Sales came -10.9% lower at 603k compared to August's 677k, and 17.6% lower than September 2021 . The housing market is finally catching up to financial markets and starting to reverse course. The 20th and final GPDNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 3.1% compared to 2.9% on 10/19. As the FOMC meeting on 11/01-11/02 nears, the recent significant downturns in PMI and New Home Sales may not be enough to save the Fed from going with 100bps if US September PCE index doesn't come down equivocally. However, most speculators are still betting on a 75bps rate hike. Key Upcoming Dates: US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27 ; Amazon Q3 and Apple Q4 Earnings 10/28; First GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/28; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.* Price has successfully broken back into the descending channel from August 2021 and is currently trending down at ~$3830 after being rejected by the 50 MA at ~$3860 as resistance; it would confirm support of the channel if it were to successfully defend the lower trendline of the channel at ~$3795 as support. Volume both remains High (low) and has favored buyers for four consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3547, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 55.5 after forming a peak at 58, the next support is at 52.68. Stochastic is currently on the verge of crossing over bearish at 96, the next support is at 76 but as long as it stays above 85 it is in the "bullish autobahn". MACD remains bullish and is currently testing the weak uptrend line from March 2020 at 10.73 resistance with no signs of trough formation. ADX continues to trend lower at 25 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to breakout above the 50 MA at ~$3860 as resistance then it will likely aim to retest the VP Point of Control at around $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3795 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3795.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX500- Bulls could see some favorable movementSince the recent low at 3500, marked by a huge bullish engulfing, with a long down tail and engulfing the previous 3 days, SP500 started to rise and, at the time of writing is trading exactly in 3800 resistance. With a new bullish engulfing on Friday, the odds are in favor of a bottom, at least for now. At this moment I see 2 bullish scenarios in SP's case: 1. A drop from this resistance and a test of the 3650-3700 zone before the resumption to the up move and a break above resistance. 2. A break above resistance without testing of support In both cases, the target for bulls is the 4200 zone resistance These scenarios are negated by a drop under 3550
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
12
S&P500: More Pep!S&P500 needs some more pep to make it above the resistance at 3820 points, so let’s cheer it on! S&P, you are strong enough to climb above 3820 points and to hop into the upper blue zone between 3943 and 4015 points overlapping with the pink zone between 3963 and 4052 points. After you have finished wave (III) in blue there as well as concluded a countermovement in the course of wave (IV) in blue, you will continue to rise further. Although there is a 33% chance that you could lose your grip and drop below the support at 3502 points, that would only activate a detour through the lower blue zone between 3455 and 3285 points overlapping with the pink zone between 3362 and 3271 points. In that case, you would just complete wave alt.4 in turquoise and start the ascent afterwards.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% SPX, 30% Cash. *Equity Futures are up to start the week and Cryptos are currently seeing some Sunday Scaries, this particular combination typically bodes well for the Equity bulls in Monday's trading session. DXY is up and US Treasuries are down. Today Russia accused Ukraine of planning to detonate a 'dirty bomb' (an explosive with radioactive elements) with hopes of blaming Russia for using weapons of mass destruction and instigating a response from NATO . Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24 ; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; 20th and Final GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.* Price is currently trending up at ~$3752 after bouncing from $3658 minor support, the next resistance is the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800. Volume is currently High (low) and trading in the third largest supply/demand zone as it broke a three day streak of seller dominance with a green close in Friday's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3507, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 51 as it approaches a retest of 52.68 resistance for the first time since 09/12/22. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 88 in the 'bullish autobahn zone', as long as it stays above ~85 this would still be bullish. MACD remains bullish and is currently testing -43.84 resistance for the first time since July of this year. ADX is currently trending down at 29.36 as Price keeps pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance before potentially retesting the 50 MA at ~$3900 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3658 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3658.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy