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Sp500analysis

LOADING UP ON TNA TNA which is the Direxion Daily S&P Small Cap 3x leveraged is an ETF that I just came across. I usually trade TQQQ and SPXL while carrying a small position overnight in order to mitigate my risk from daily rebalancing of the leverage ETFs. TNA has run up under 980% since the COVID - 19 sell off and is approximately 40% above its pre - pandemic high. I have heard that small cap stocks will lead the charge up or down before there's a market turn in the S&P 500. I'm looking at two entry points for this ETF. My first entry point will be at $89.92 and my second position will at $71.32. Due to TNA being a leveraged ETF the goal is to take a small position relative to my account and potential day trade the TZA (the inverse) or TNA with a larger position. I am very bullish on the market and I am loving the pullback that we are experiencing. Based on past analysis, TNA hit a resistance and then pulled back towards a support at $71.32 before breaking through its resistance - and now support - at $89.92 creating a new resistance. The sell off from the resistance at $104.14 looks healthy but I am looking for a bounce off of $89.92 here. TNA is holding its 15 and 50 day EMA strongly after breaking below its 5 day EMA. I will cut my position and turn bearish on TNA if we break below the 50 day EMA. This is the first post that I have made and I am looking to create more whether my analysis is correct or wrong. Thank you in advance for any feedback that readers provide me with as I am looking to do this full time!
AMEX:TNA
by madisonsoun97
3
S&P500 - The "Mayan Calendar" Chart Fearing an upcoming crash / correction I've been looking at all the key indexes etc, and this was one of my earlier explorations using Fibonacci. I look at this chart with a large pinch of salt, more a fascinating oddity than something scientific (maybe!), but I do find all the correlations very interesting. Ultimately this connects well with my Vix & Gold charts in regards to overall cycles so I do pay attention to this and it's progression. Time will tell! Enjoy this "Mayan Calendar" chart as it was jestingly called on Twitter ;)
TVC:SPXShort
by TheDarkEconomist
Little Thought on SP500 H4 Chart Just sharing my view. First of all, it moves directly inside the uptrend channel. While we thought this is already pick, but suddenly i try to take a look the pattern inside the channel. Take a look at the starting point. The rally comes after the correction at the 'starting point'. Small correction when touch the 'Support 2', and then breakout the resistance (means the Support 2 area in the picture). The rally stopped first at the area named "support 1' (it was named Resistance 1 before the breakout). Market having some consolidation inside small Rectangle/Flag. After having 'too dip' correction (named A), it suddenly reversed and rally beyond the Resistance 1 & 2 (it becomes Support 1 & support 2 now). There you go .. try to look briefly! It happen again!. The correction moves inside small flag/rectangle. And guess what?? It was having false breakout too! Named as B, and it marked as 'False Breakout 2'. So, if this is a repetition, it should be the Good Chances for Buying on Dip! I suppose, the dip normally will hold at 'Support 1 area' .. probably around 3825 - 3833. And if this going to happen, we will have the 'Resistance 1' broken! And that means, New high will become real possible around 3900 - 3920 or beyond. And all depends on what Fed says tonight, but also will have significant impact at the end of US markets when we heard about The Earnings. Of course my view could be false also! So, you better use your own Risk Management to do this. Thanks
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by irpansupiandi
S&P 500 Ascending Channel - Short SetupSPX500 Short Trade Entry: $3,866.6 TP & RR: $3,840.5 (1.13) Stop Loss: $3,889.7 REASONS FOR THE TRADE Straight off the bat, you notice two things here - ascending channel and opening a position against the trend with what I consider a bad Risk:Reward Ratio of just over 1. However, I believe that price can form a double top with bearish divergence, retrace back to the lower trendline and then continue up. Of course, we will be looking to open a long order somewhere at the lower trendline. Stop Loss is set pretty high in case there's a fakeout. However, we will close the position if there's a convincing close above the recent high.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Quant_
SPX's Percent of Stocks Above 50d MA. **************************** ****Reading Table:****** **************************** -Green Lines readings below 10% -Black Lines readings Between 10%-20% -Red "Date Range" is reading above 90% - Pinks are Crossing below 50% then Crossing above it again. "Bottom finder" ----------------------------------------------- Reading Between 10%-20% : ( 9 Signals) -------------------------------------- Bottom - before bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom going down botom bottom ---------------------------- Conclusion: -90 % success rate at Bottoms -Much better surprisingly than going below 10% which is most extremes ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Reading Below 10% : (11 signals since 2009) ------------------------------------------------------ Bottom bottom False bottom going down 3 weeks before a bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom going down bottom ------------------- Conclusion : - much better to wait for it to crosses above 10% just to clear off errors . - 54% confirmed bottoms,9% false signals - 18 % going down to a bottom ---------------------------------------------------------- Readings Above 90% : 9 signals ---------------------------------- up swing ( small dip) up swing up swing top "small dip" up swing top small dip up swing Major top up swing ----------------------------------------- conclusion : - Small dips 7%-5 % -89% of the time just up swing showing how strong the market is. -11% Major top ------------------------------------------------ Summary: *** Above 90% is just up swing, 89% of the time!! ***Surprisingly between 10%-20% is much better than going below 10% ! !! 90% VS. 54%. ***Both lowest section readings either we are very close to a bottom like weeks or at one. ***Like any other indicator, during crashes we will get false signals across the board like allot!!! *** All dips if i may say, happened between pink lines when single or between them for longer pullbacks
SP:SPX
by samitrading
12
S&P 500 Reaches a Level of Resistance - Short TradeSPX500 - Short Position(s) Entries: $3,784.4 / 3826.8 TP & RR: $3,728.8 (3.29 / 4.12) Stop Loss Levels: $3,801.3 / $3,850.6 REASONS FOR THE TRADE I think it's time for the SPX500 to take a break from this bull run. As such, I am expecting that price will reach either of the two levels that I would like to short. The Risk:Reward Ratio is favorable and the Stop Loss is just above the invalidation levels. Now, you may be wondering why the SL of the first short is not placed higher, somewhere around the second order's SL. The problem is in the Risk:Rewards Ratio. If I am to do that, I will need to adjust my position size to account for the bigger gap between entry and SL. Also, the RRR of 3.29 will fall down to 0.84. So, even if I short from the first level and the setup proves to be valid, I will increase my capital by less than 1%, compared to over 3% if I keep the trade as it is. Even if the first setup is invalidated, and we open a profitable short on the second level, the profit of 4.12R will compensate for the 1R loss and we will be at a profit of 3.12R. Of course, it would be unpleasant to lose 1% of the account, but that's just how trading works. You either take the risk or you lose the chance. On a side note, since it's Monday, I am not placing those as limit orders, rather I have set alerts at the levels. When we reach them I will look at the volume, the 1h candle close, and will update the idea. We don't want to blindly place orders and hope for the best.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Quant_
2
How much room does the tech market have to the upside? SPXIs it possible that the tech market is now in a second bubble? Although the valuation of the top 5-6 companies is accurate, what would the rest of the 455 stocks of the SPX are signalling on what is going to happen next? In my view, I believe that a few signs on the chart of the SPX does seem to indicate that a correction is due. There is a current bearish divergence looking both the the monthly and weekly volumes in relation to the price. The MACD is highly elevated too and it seems we are not seeing a record level that we have not ever seen before. Of course, the correction back in March is a contributing factor on seeing such elevated levels but they cannot simply go on like that for too long now. Despite a vaccine being available and as of tomorrow starting to be used in the UK targeting around 2 million people, the economic prospects and worries seem to be more elevated both in Europe and the US. The US market has been flooded by vast amounts of money printed by the FED which were mostly use to purchase bonds and stocks, increasing it's balance sheet. The argument of a high inflation is real and of course is something to take serious but personally I believe that deflation will be the first real threat. Every major crisis in the past had started with a deflationary period and the pandemic has set the stage perfectly for that. It is very possible to see some high volatility in the month of December but I believe that end of February mid March would be the the more sensitive times one should watch the market. The levels to watch would be the 21EMA on the Weekly chart as , breaking that level, would be a first sign of a potential reversal. I will update this idea with more charts as we go along but for now I just wish to publish the current state and see if we will get any signals before the end of 2021.
SP:SPXShort
by cbistriceanu
S&P500 : The completion of the Diagonal patternIn240 minutes chart of the uptrend from the range of 3511 to 3833 is in the form of 3 waves which confirms the scenario of the formation of the Diagonal pattern. Currently, to get the the confirmation of the downtrend,the price should not cross the range of 3841,because the 3rd wave should not be shorter than the other waves. By crossing the price from this range,this scenario will be violated. Thee confirmation for this pattern will be received by the formation of 5 descending waves,and by crossing the price from the range of 3660. According to monitored position, personally,I set the short order. By considering the RSI you can also see the convergence
U
by NirmataFX
S&P 500 Ascending Channel - Long SetupS&P 500 Ascending Channel - Long Position Entry: $3,795.3 TP & RR: $3,873.6 (3.26) Stop Loss: $3,771.3 REASONS FOR THE TRADE I believe the price will respect the lower trendline in this ascending channel and will continue trending up. Initially, we had the order at a lower level, but it seemed that we wouldn't get a fill, so we trialed it up. Needless to say, if the price breaks through it, I am expecting a fairly sharp drop and will be looking for a short position. The current entry is at a support level, which while being a bit conservative, gives us a good RR with the SL far enough and with enough room for the trade to breathe. If the price dives down or does something unexpected, we will close the order prematurely.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Quant_
S&P 500 Channel - Long OrderSPX500 Long Position Entry: $3,772.9 TP & RR: $3,849.1 (2.92) Stop Loss: $3,746.8 REASONS FOR THE TRADE SPX500 has formed an ascending channel, so I am looking to open a long order at the lower trendline. In addition to bouncing off the trendline, I also want to see a divergence in the Market Flow indicator, which will signal a potential reversal. In any case, I will be carefully examining this level, because I will not be too surprised if the price breaks through it and makes a sharp drop. Stop Loss is relatively close here, but the entry is also fairly conservative. To get filled, the price should make a small drop and then gradually start going up. If it does touch the trendline above my entry I will examine the situation and might open a long there with a SL just under the lower trendline.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Quant_