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S&P 500 Index Long SetupSPX500 LONG SETUP IDEA Entry: $3,715.9 Stop Loss: $3,680.5 TP Levels and RR: $3,784.4 (1.94) REASONS FOR THE TRADE I know that I am posting this with a bit of hindsight, but by the time I opened my order and came back to do the analysis the price has already gone up. Anyway, I am posting this in case there's a small retracement and you decide to jump on board. The indicator Trend Volume RSI Analysis shows a clear divergence in the volume and you can also see the buying and selling distribution in the Multi Time Frame Effective Volume Profile below. I have also applied a Fib Retracement to this ascending triangle, which indicates that the take profit should occur somewhere near the potential resistance. The SL level is put at a level far enough from the trend line. You can be slightly more aggressive here and move the SL up, which would significantly improve your RR Ratio. Generally speaking, breaking down this trendline would invalidate the setup, so if you have taken that particular trade you may close your position before hitting the SL.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Quant_
DJI 90 year-old Dow Jones index hints at correctionGlobally, Dow Jones industrial index has been on the growth for almost 90 years since the Great Depression. Ironically, World War II launched an industrial boom in the United States that pushed the index up. It took 30 years and increase in 10 times of the DJI value before a more or less significant correction took place in 1973 , and the oil crisis can be called the main driver. The next corrections came again 30 years later: the crash of the Dotcoms of the 00s and the financial crisis of 2008-2009 , which should already be in the minds of most readers. And now, not a simple 2020, closed with the Japanese candle "hanging man" , which can be regarded as the first bearish signal. The collapse of the index in the spring 2020 through the first wave of coronavirus, and then its rapid growth amid subsidies to the population and the economy, formed a large shadow under the body of the candle. How long will the economy be supported by the US printing press, will vaccination have an effect, or maybe something else will happen, we do not know... But according to candle analysis, if the next candle behind the Hangman opens lower , then many traders may want to consider selling. It's very interesting how the trades will open in 2021! You will say that journalists refer more to the DJI index , and traders are guided by the S&P 500 (by the way, Tesla shares were added to the index a week ago) and you will probably be right. The Dow index has been calculated since the 19th century and is historically very important, but in 1957 appeared a competitor S&P 500. All the same, the S&P 500 index, which includes the value of shares of 500 companies, more realistically shows the mood of the modern market than the Dow Jones industrial index, which includes only 30 companies. We have added the S&P 500 to the chart below and what do we see? Another "hanging man" or Hangman. By the way, it's not bad enough, historically they work out Fibo levels on the indices , everyone can find something that he likes. Write in the comments, your expectations for 2021
TVC:DJI
by P_S_trade
18
SPX's Deviation from 200W MA since inception's day 1957-weeklyHey guys what's up This is a weekly study VS. daily i did last time. I am including all the data here so you can copy, share or edit it on Microsoft apps. feel free to reuse or redistribute all my work to our trading view community or out side it. March's low is most likely a fresh new cycle to say the least " believe it or not" with out bias you would come to this conclusion one way or another and you should accept if before time proof that for you. (even if we get big corrections this is how financial markets behave : -) ) Moreover i probably did allot of mistakes here and there, missed allot of important details ... but i did everything with the best to my ability : -) wish you all the best. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summery 11 times : Green count . Above 50 54% of pullbacks single digits 46 % double digits correction very close margin to favor one over the other. All deviations above 50 : ----------------------------- Deviation Pullbacks/correction 54.84 13.08 57.25 7.17 61.99 22.39 59.53 13 61.78 7.35 60.42 34.52 54.78 8.77 55 9.83 crash came for less 57 7 58 10.59 56.33 4.62 ****************************************************** Summery 11 times : Blue count. 40-40.99 46 % single digits pullbacks 54 % double digits corrections All Deviation 40-49.99 : ------------------------------------ 47.29 49.94 2000 crash 46.11 10.05 48.98 10.29 43.78 5.96 41.79 10.03 46.15 9.12 46.07 5.32 47.50 21.46 crash of 1957 43 3.52 43 6.82 43 5.9 ******************************************************** Summery 21 times : Orange count 30-30.99 76 % single digits pullbacks & 24 double digits corrections - pullback. That’s a huge jump from the 40s. All deviation 30-30.99 : ------------------------------------------- 30.38 10.55 32.61 11.84 33.61 5.16 33.27 9.84 34.60 4.35 34.63 6.67 34.73 6.03 30.65 4.82 31.37 4.81 31.37 4.81 32.83 7.52 37.74 10.90 39.74 5.33 33.19 4.11 34.17 5.58 30.23 8.48 37.05 7.53 33.05 14.71 37.21 26.44 33.38 7.79 30.20 6.10 ************************************************************* Summery 47 times : Dark Green count 20.20.99 71 % single digits Pullbacks 29 % double digits corrections All deviation 20-20.99 27 8.9 20.46 8.27 29.12 35.52 covid crash 21 5.46 22.86 6.80 22.58 7.63 27.76 20.21 24.38 3.56 27.73 6.82 25 Nothing happened 20 2.95 20 2.99 21.16 14.37 within a pullback 29.64 15.09 27.54 8.90 25.59 10.94 24.34 57.72 2007 crash 25.16 11.86 23.05 6.84 21.72 8.08 20.55 9.73 22.43 5.36 21.76 4.80 20.97 3.43 21.08 6.67 27.70 6.83 25.41 6.60 25.29 5.59 25.16 20.33 28.12 11.30 23.19 9.24 27.62 4.03 23.50 8.98 25 49.95 crash of 1973 20.25 37.36 crash of 1969 23.90 23.70 crash of 1966 24.20 4.39 24.97 10.94 N.h 24.35 3.33 N.h 24.17 4.78 25 4.19 23.51 4.47 27.54 29.27 crassh of 1962 25.19 3.90 27.83 14.06 25 3.95 24 4.39 *********************************************************** Summery 25 times : Purple count 10-19.99 72 % signal digits Pullbacks 28 % double digits. All deviations 10-10.99 19 1.74 18 1.94 16.5 5 14.64 6.08 15.93 4 17.04 21.58 17.39 6.22 15.65 7.30 14.88 4.45 14 7.27 19.93 21 12.85 11.68 14.147 15.12 10 8.10 14.89 20.45 17 5.45 12.33 15.39 16.11 7.60 11.94 11.36 14.29 8.36 13.64 4.76 13.62 8.43 18.89 7.58 15.31 5.19 19 4.6 ********************************************************************* Deviation below 10 % of spx: Very shocking results Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Long Long Long Long Long Long Long Long The safest area to go long with every thing else is being absolute !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Deviation pullback 9.60 4.60 ********************************************************************** All acceptable pullbacks happened above 10 % of SPX's 200W MA !!! very safe zone to be long is when deviation is 9.99 and under . Most important discovery of this study of this indicator with every thing else being absolute !!! ********************************************************************************** Deviation Below 200W MA: 49-37 Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy and Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold All Deviation below 200W MA ----------------------------------- 16.90 7.04 49.44 37.98 10.64 8.03 5.87 4.12 6.15 38.94 5.55 26.75 10.05 13.92 3.35 ************************************************ Summery of all summaries : ( Keep this handy close by for your swings : -) --------------------------------------------- Deviation Singal.D Double.D 50 + 54 46 40-49.99 46 54 30-30.99 76 24 20-29.99 71 29 10-19.99 72 25 Below 10 4.6 Zero ------------------------------------------------ Hope this would be like a Guide Book for this weekly indicator. Keep the summaries close by for your trading . wish you all the best.
SP:SPX
by samitrading
SPX's Deviation from 200D MA since inception's day 1957Hey guys what's up I am including all the data here so you can copy, share or edit it on Microsoft apps. feel free to reuse of redistribute all my work to our trading view community or out side it. March's low is most likely a fresh new cycle to say the least " believe it or not" with out bias you would come to this conclusion one way or another and you should accept if before time proof that for you. (even if we get big corrections this is how financial markets behave : -) ) Moreover i probably did allot of mistakes here and there, missed allot of important details ... but i did everything with most to my ability : -) ************************************* SUMMERY: (RED #s) During each new cycle we usually get the higher & highest numbers. the more we go into the cycle the more the deviations get lower. Moreover, we do get allot of NOT worthy to mention pullbacks even though we have higher number of deviation !!! . --------------So, no GOLDEN RULE here at all.--------------- wish you all the best. ************************************************************** SUMMERY: (BLUE #s) Deviation below 200d MA is not that common on a daily chart, and i assume it would be more rare on a weekly chart. (5 r single digits-4r20s—9 r teens-1is30s-2r40s- 1is50( Most extremes since inception r (54-47-46-32) ------------"40 % 10-19"/"22% below 10"/"8% 20s"--------- BUY BUY BUY BBUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY -----------WHEN YOU SEE THOSE "3" EXTREEMS.------------- Deviation below 200d MA. -8 -25.37 -6.08 -19.91 - 7.41 -32.88 -9.94 -46.18 -15.63 -22.66 -11.51 -11.40 -27.48 -14.60 -12.49 -47.69 2000 -54.77 2007 -16.48 -9 % -12.21 % -15.13 -27.81 covid-19 *************************************************************************** SUMMERY: (GREEN #s) Some of the biggest corrections/crashes/crisis came from small percentages of deviation from SPX's price !!! That's a key note to be observed closely. In Contrary to the general view that the more we go the more likely we have a stronger crash ---------- DATA says this is WRONG!!!--------------------- Since the inception of Standard & Poor's 500 : -------------------------------------------------------- 11.79 Covid -19 crash 6.4 % 2018 correction 3.45 % 2015 correction 12.21 % 2011 6.95 % 2007 crisis 6.11 % 2000 crisis 14.95 % 1999 correction 17 % 1998 correction 5.68 % 1994 10 % pullback 7.20 % 1990 correction 20 % 17.92 % 1987 crisis 20 1980 correction 13 % 1980 correction 8 % 1976 big Correction 9.97 % 1973 big crash 11.85 % 1968 big correction 5.96 % 1966 big correction 8.47 % 1962 big correction 8.62 1959 big correction ----------------------------- we have a range of 20%- 3.45 % ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Summery : (Orange) the largest 15 crashes in the history of SPX since inception has no relation what so ever. 53 % of corrections came from double digits % deviation!!! 47% of correction came from single digit deviations The largest crashes since 1957 (inception): ---------------------------------------------------- 11.79 35.27 covid-19 crash 6.45 20.23 12.21 21.59 6.95 57 2007 crash 13.18 50 2000 crash 14.69 22.52 7.2 20.32 17.92 36 20.39 28.08 13.76 21.58 8.02 20 9.97 52.08 big crash 73 11.85 37.12 big crash 1969 5.96 23.69 big crash 1966 8.74 29.26 1962 big crash ------------- So it is 50-50 chance !!!!!---------------- ********************************************************************** All Deviation above 20 + except for few where at the beginning of new cycle. In another word they came all after big crashes/corrections. Therefore getting these high numbers of deviation is confirming YES confirming that we are beginning a new cycle.: 18 % of these double digits pullbacks. 82 % of these are a single digit pullback. After March's low we r getting high #s(new Cycle)!! All Deviation above 20 + ----------------------------------- 20.63 6.55 Beg. 20.81 5.57 Beg. 21.22 7.18 20.49 4 N.wm Beg. 1982 20.63 3.27 beg. 1982 20.85 6.24 Beg. 1982 23.78 9.03 Beg. 1982 20.39 28.08 21.23 15.54 Beg. 23.90 5.52 Beg. 20.15 4.69 Beg ******************************************************************* Summery: All deviations between 15-19.99 20 % of these we get a double digit pullback 80 % is a shocking single digits pullback !!!!! All deviation between 15-19.99 -------------------------------------- 16.17 10.37 16.54 7.17 17.11 5.07 N.WM 16 13.07 19.76 6.49 16.53 10.29 15 6.03 15.97 6.43 15.46 3.5 N.WM 16.82 3.47 N.WM 17.92 36 19 9.33 16.23 9.12 18.87 4.86 19.77 5.05 16.78 7.63 18.14 7.79 18.31 15.47 Beg. 19.69 3.60 Beg. ***************************************************************** Summery: All deviation between 10-14.99 36 % of the time we will get double digit pullbacks up to 64 % of the time single digits pullbacks. Therefor this area is favoring small dips !!!! All deviation between 10-14.99 Deviation pullbacks 13.42 8.9 11.79 covid-19 crash 35.27 13.91 11.84 13.81 7.58 12.24 10.96 12.21 21.59 12.35 17.16 14.70 9.26 11.28 8.55 Beg. 14.14 5.35 Beg. 13.18 2000 crash 14.13 13.13 14.69 22.52 11.76 7.39 13.95 5.96 N.WM 10.79 11.04 12.77 3.95 N.WM Beg. 13.99 2.59 N.WM Beg. 14.57 14.57 N.WM Beg. 14.01 5.59 N.WM Beg. 13.89 9.26 10.80 4.76 N.wm Beg. 10.93 10.14 10.69 8.28 10.14 3.18 N.wm 12.90 4.03 N.wm 13.76 21.58 13.79 15.15 10/13/13 6/6/4.70 N.W 11.85 37.12 big crash 1969 13.87 8.36 Beg. 12.39 5.06 Beg. 11.83 4.41 Beg. 13.86 4.42 Beg. 14.97 3.36 Beg. 10.82 1.86 Beg. Summery: 36 % of the time we will get double digit pullbacks up to 64 % of the time single digists pullbacks.Therefor this area is favoring small dips !!!! *********************************************************************** ************************************************************************************************************************ Summery: All Deviations between 5-9.99. 28 % of them double digits pullbacks 72% single digits pullbacks. Either, my 42 sample is not enough and in this area i am wrong, or things get missy around these numbers !!!!!!! All Deviations between 5-9.99 Deviation pullbacks 6.94 6.94 8.89 6.87 6.75 7.64 6.45 20.23 8.92 8.87 6.32 4.76 6.99 5.16 6.78 9.88 9.23 6.12 9.44 8.90 6.95 2007 crash 7.67 12 9.02 6.69 5.75 8.09 6.95 7.32 9.89 10.35 5.68 9.70 7.7 5.36 9.22 6.75 7.2 20.32 8.74 11.30 7.40 7.43 N.wm Beg. 8.46 14.68 9.69 11.73 9.06 4.05 8. 9.97 52.08 big crash 73 8.23/9/10 6.23/6.18/6.55 02 20 8.89 8.50 9.72 4.66 5.96 23.69 big crash 1966 6.32 4.41 6.16 10.94 6.37 4.87 8.90 4.19 8.69 4.47 8.98 2.83 N.wm 8.40 7.59 8.74 29.26 big crash 62 8.69 3.89 8.62 9.32 ************************************************************************ Summery: All deviation below 5 % off 200D MA is just 50 % double digits % 50 % single digits pullbacks. All deviation below 5 : 2.66 14.50 3.45 12.28 4.94 6.16 3.7 6.71 4.83 3.96 4.65 6.75 4.62 11.35 4.16 13.63 big crash *********************************************************************** ****************************************** All raw data Total of most extended deviation since the inception of S&P 500 in 1957 : ---------------------------------------- Deviation----pullback/corrections ????????????????????????????????? 13.42 8.9 16.17 10.37 11.79 covid-19 crash 35.27 6.94 6.94 8.89 6.87 6.75 7.64 6.45 20.23 8.92 8.87 13.91 11.84 6.32 4.76 2.66 14.50 3.45 12.28 6.99 5.16 6.78 9.88 9.23 6.12 13.81 7.58 9.44 8.90 12.24 10.96 12.21 21.59 12.35 17.16 14.70 9.26 20.63 6.55 20.81 5.57 6.95 2007 crash 7.67 12 9.02 6.69 5.75 8.09 4.94 6.16 6.95 7.32 11.28 8.55 Beg. 14.14 5.35 Beg. 6 2000 crash 13.18 2000 crash 9.89 10.35 14.13 13.13 16.54 7.17 14.69 22.52 17.11 5.07 N.WM 11.76 7.39 16 13.07 19.76 6.49 16.53 10.29 13.95 5.96 N.WM 10.79 11.04 15 6.03 12.77 3.95 N.WM Beg. 13.99 2.59 N.WM Beg. 14.57 14.57 N.WM Beg. 5.68 9.70 7.7 5.36 3.7 6.71 4.83 3.96 9.22 6.75 4.65 6.75 14.01 5.59 N.WM Beg. 15.97 6.43 N.WM Beg. 7.2 20.32 8.74 11.30 13.89 9.26 15.46 3.5 N.WM 16.82 3.47 N.WM 10.80 4.76 N.wm Beg. 7.40 7.43 N.wm Beg. 17.92 36 19 9.33 10.93 10.14 16.23 9.12 18.87 4.86 19.77 5.05 21.22 7.18 12.48 5.58 10.69 8.28 11.21 canceled this one too close 10.14 3.18 N.wm 12.90 4.03 N.wm 8.46 14.68 16.78 7.63 20.49 4 N.wm Beg. 20.63 3.27 beg. 20.85 6.24 Beg. 23.78 9.03 Beg. 16.05 canceled with in a crash 20.39 28.08 18.14 7.79 13.76 21.58 9.69 11.73 9.06 4.05 13.79 15.15 4.9 canceled within a crash 8.02 20 10/13/13 6/6/4.70 N.W 21.23 15.54 Beg. 23.90 5.52 Beg. 9.97 52.08 big crash 73 8.23/9/10 6.23/6.18/6.55 N.W 18.31 15.47 Beg. 19.69 3.60 Beg. 20.15 4.69 Beg. 11.85 37.12 big crash 1969 4.62 11.35 8.89 8.50 9.72 4.66 13.87 8.36 Beg. 5.96 23.69 big crash 1966 6.32 4.41 6.16 10.94 6.37 4.87 8.90 4.19 8.69 4.47 8.98 2.83 N.wm 8.40 7.59 12.39 5.06 Beg. 11.83 4.41 Beg. 8.74 29.26 62 big crash 8.69 3.89 13.86 4.42 Beg. 14.97 3.36 Beg. 10.82 1.86 Beg. 4.16 13.63 big crash 8.62 9.32 15 Beg. 15 Beg. 15 Beg.
SP:SPX
by samitrading
14
Ready for another ATH? 📈The SP500 manages to break the 2 important resistance lines at 3550 and 3588 points. The way for higher quotations is now paved and we expect prices to rise to 3800 points. Another imminent hurdle the bulls are facing is however the current all time high at 3674. Still the bulls reamin strong and as long as market stays above 3550, we expect the SP500 to rise. Should we break below 3550 the chances for wave alt.ii will accumulate. At the moment we consider this alternative scenario with a probability of 35%. What do you think? Happy Trading! Happy Holiday! 🦃
OANDA:SPX500USD
by MarketIntel
The Bulls love Biden! 🗳️Or do they? In an impulsive wave, the bulls manage to push above the 3550 mark. A major resistance that makes us abandon our primary expectation, as indicated in our last post. This scenario is now our alternative count, which has to be considered with a 42% probability. To further strengthen the upwards move, we need to see a quotation of 3572 and higher, plus a break out above the current all time high. If the bulls manage to deliver, the way is paved for 3800 points and higher. We are at a crossroads to see if the breakout caused by the election results will be sustainable. As long as we hold above 3500, the SP500 is set up for higher notation.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by MarketIntel
BTC/USD - SP 500 - XAU: What shall we expect now? Hello, traders! It's been a crazy week and it's time to make a round-up on the major indices. After passing the psychological mark of $12 000, Bitcoin started demonstrating rapid growth. The key reasons for the growth are: USDT emission in the total amount of +7.5 billion between September 1, 2020, and today; a large number of open short positions that had to be closed by SL's, pushed the price even higher. If we consider three years of Bitcoin movement, we can see how the price went into a one-week correction before continuing its growth. The current bitcoin rally brought the price to a new trading range of $13 880 - $15 800. A similar range was formed in 2017 between the levels of $5 850 - $7 450, where the price returned later. In the visible trading volume profile, you can clearly see the poorly traded area after $12 000, which will be filled by the price movement. SP 500 The driver of the new round of growth in the stock market was the news about the vaccine from PFIZER. After that, liquidity began to move from fin-tech companies to the sectors of the economy that were affected worse by the Covid-19. XAU/GOLD Simultaneously with the growth of the stock market, participants' appetite for risk assets began to grow, which led to the dump of the gold prices by more than 100 points after securing positions in the protective asset. So, what shall we expect now? Based on what is written above, we can assume that the markets are preparing for a New Year's rally, which may be hampered by political instability amidst disputed election results in the United States. Please share your thoughts on my vision in the comments below and watch out for the market!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn10064030
7
SP500- Time to sell it?Since the election SP500 had a good run with the price rising around 10%. The vaccine announcement brought a lot of optimists into the market but the rally was short-lived and failed to maintain gains above resistance. It is possible for a false break to be in place and in this case SP could drop and retest the lower boundary of the range. I'm bearish SP as long as the price stays under 3650 zone on the daily close bases and I'm looking for a good point to entry
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by Mihai_Iacob
1
SP500 2943 IS THE MAGIC NUMBER...2018 HIGHS, JUNE 2020 SUPPORTSP500 flirted with 2943 multiple times in 2018. We double topped in October 2018, sending us lower, and a year later were able to break past it (October 2019). That led us to new all time highs in February 2020. During the Covid crash, 2943 became support. They built up momentum a bit, trapping bulls, then smashed through 2943 and reach the 2018 lows as support for the March Covid bottom. In April-May 2020, there was a battle at 2943, and we ultimately broke through it end of May. Irrational exuberance took over and we hit the June highs before a big correction to find support at the breakout number of ... 2943!! The next target became the February closing high, 3389. We bust through it on the first try in August, hit the September highs, and corrected down. After a fierce battle at 3389, we found support at the highs of June. We could not smash through that support on the first try. So momentum was built, trapping more bulls by passing the February high 3389 in an "attempt" to hit all time highs near 3600. The October trickle down effect completely turned into a waterfall at the former support level of 3389 (February high). Once February high support was smashed through, we found support yet again at....the June high (like we did in September). Going forward, expect a small bullish move meeting resistance at 3389 to build momentum for a bigger smash down through the June high support to ultimately find support at ... 2943. The June low, which was the former 2018 top, where we broke out in October 2019. This is simply a retest of the breakout from 2019 on a bigger picture. After that, 3600 is not a foreign possibility before more madness in the year 2021.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by mjmassens
The end is near! 🔚 🌍 The earth is turning against us, and it's time for us to board the spaceships leaving for Kepler-186f. Just kidding, it's not that bad! However, we still have to expect another -15% in the S&P500 for the upcoming weeks. Our target area for the correction lies between 2900 and 2650. From there, we expect major support by the bulls and a turnaround towards higher quotations. The next hurdle the bears face on their way down is the last low at around 3200 points. This support has to be broken for a final confirmation of the correction. What's your expectation for the upcoming weeks? Stay save and happy trading!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by MarketIntel
SPX relation with Stocks above 200D MA,70 selling & 24 Buying I did not like this a bit. I do not no way but it seems it was quite hard to analyse !. Even though, it is the 200d MA it gave tops that are not significant at all that's maybe one of its draw back. high opportunity cost. Or maybe it is not my day of analyzing :-). i did my best LOL. further examination of this indicator is needed. Also, do not forget that i might missed allot of tops & bottoms :-) wish you all the best.
SP:SPX
by samitrading