S&P 500 Reaches a Level of Resistance - Short TradeSPX500 - Short Position(s)
Entries: $3,784.4 / 3826.8
TP & RR: $3,728.8 (3.29 / 4.12)
Stop Loss Levels: $3,801.3 / $3,850.6
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
I think it's time for the SPX500 to take a break from this bull run. As such, I am expecting that price will reach either of the two levels that I would like to short. The Risk:Reward Ratio is favorable and the Stop Loss is just above the invalidation levels.
Now, you may be wondering why the SL of the first short is not placed higher, somewhere around the second order's SL. The problem is in the Risk:Rewards Ratio. If I am to do that, I will need to adjust my position size to account for the bigger gap between entry and SL. Also, the RRR of 3.29 will fall down to 0.84. So, even if I short from the first level and the setup proves to be valid, I will increase my capital by less than 1%, compared to over 3% if I keep the trade as it is.
Even if the first setup is invalidated, and we open a profitable short on the second level, the profit of 4.12R will compensate for the 1R loss and we will be at a profit of 3.12R. Of course, it would be unpleasant to lose 1% of the account, but that's just how trading works. You either take the risk or you lose the chance.
On a side note, since it's Monday, I am not placing those as limit orders, rather I have set alerts at the levels. When we reach them I will look at the volume, the 1h candle close, and will update the idea. We don't want to blindly place orders and hope for the best.
Sp500analysis
SP500 could correct to 3500, I'm waiting for confirmationSince the "election all-time high" just under 3700, SP500 continued its rise, but this is anemic to say the least with the index gaining around 3% in the past 2 months.
The rise is in a tight channel which for me is an indication of an imminent reversal.
A break under this channel's support can be the signal for sellers and 3500 is a very modest target for this trade(I believe it will drop harder)
How much room does the tech market have to the upside? SPXIs it possible that the tech market is now in a second bubble? Although the valuation of the top 5-6 companies is accurate, what would the rest of the 455 stocks of the SPX are signalling on what is going to happen next?
In my view, I believe that a few signs on the chart of the SPX does seem to indicate that a correction is due. There is a current bearish divergence looking both the the monthly and weekly volumes in relation to the price. The MACD is highly elevated too and it seems we are not seeing a record level that we have not ever seen before. Of course, the correction back in March is a contributing factor on seeing such elevated levels but they cannot simply go on like that for too long now. Despite a vaccine being available and as of tomorrow starting to be used in the UK targeting around 2 million people, the economic prospects and worries seem to be more elevated both in Europe and the US. The US market has been flooded by vast amounts of money printed by the FED which were mostly use to purchase bonds and stocks, increasing it's balance sheet. The argument of a high inflation is real and of course is something to take serious but personally I believe that deflation will be the first real threat. Every major crisis in the past had started with a deflationary period and the pandemic has set the stage perfectly for that.
It is very possible to see some high volatility in the month of December but I believe that end of February mid March would be the the more sensitive times one should watch the market. The levels to watch would be the 21EMA on the Weekly chart as , breaking that level, would be a first sign of a potential reversal.
I will update this idea with more charts as we go along but for now I just wish to publish the current state and see if we will get any signals before the end of 2021.
S&P 500 Long PositionS&P 500 Long Trade
Entry: $3,807.4
TP & RR: $3,871.4 (2.29)
Stop Loss: $3,779.5
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Building upon yesterday's SPX500 trade on which we got stopped out, I am once again trying to catch a bounce up from the lower trendline in a channel.
This time the SL is set much lower and I am not a big fan of having such a wide distance, but I don't want to get stopped again.
S&P500 : The completion of the Diagonal patternIn240 minutes chart of the uptrend from the range of 3511 to 3833 is in the form of 3 waves which confirms the scenario of the formation of the Diagonal pattern.
Currently, to get the the confirmation of the downtrend,the price should not cross the range of 3841,because the 3rd wave should not be shorter than the other waves.
By crossing the price from this range,this scenario will be violated.
Thee confirmation for this pattern will be received by the formation of 5 descending waves,and by crossing the price from the range of 3660.
According to monitored position, personally,I set the short order.
By considering the RSI you can also see the convergence
S&P 500 Ascending Channel - Long SetupS&P 500 Ascending Channel - Long Position
Entry: $3,795.3
TP & RR: $3,873.6 (3.26)
Stop Loss: $3,771.3
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
I believe the price will respect the lower trendline in this ascending channel and will continue trending up. Initially, we had the order at a lower level, but it seemed that we wouldn't get a fill, so we trialed it up.
Needless to say, if the price breaks through it, I am expecting a fairly sharp drop and will be looking for a short position. The current entry is at a support level, which while being a bit conservative, gives us a good RR with the SL far enough and with enough room for the trade to breathe. If the price dives down or does something unexpected, we will close the order prematurely.
S&P 500 Channel - Long OrderSPX500 Long Position
Entry: $3,772.9
TP & RR: $3,849.1 (2.92)
Stop Loss: $3,746.8
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
SPX500 has formed an ascending channel, so I am looking to open a long order at the lower trendline. In addition to bouncing off the trendline, I also want to see a divergence in the Market Flow indicator, which will signal a potential reversal. In any case, I will be carefully examining this level, because I will not be too surprised if the price breaks through it and makes a sharp drop.
Stop Loss is relatively close here, but the entry is also fairly conservative. To get filled, the price should make a small drop and then gradually start going up. If it does touch the trendline above my entry I will examine the situation and might open a long there with a SL just under the lower trendline.
S&P 500 Index Long SetupSPX500 LONG SETUP IDEA
Entry: $3,715.9
Stop Loss: $3,680.5
TP Levels and RR: $3,784.4 (1.94)
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
I know that I am posting this with a bit of hindsight, but by the time I opened my order and came back to do the analysis the price has already gone up. Anyway, I am posting this in case there's a small retracement and you decide to jump on board.
The indicator Trend Volume RSI Analysis shows a clear divergence in the volume and you can also see the buying and selling distribution in the Multi Time Frame Effective Volume Profile below. I have also applied a Fib Retracement to this ascending triangle, which indicates that the take profit should occur somewhere near the potential resistance.
The SL level is put at a level far enough from the trend line. You can be slightly more aggressive here and move the SL up, which would significantly improve your RR Ratio. Generally speaking, breaking down this trendline would invalidate the setup, so if you have taken that particular trade you may close your position before hitting the SL.
DJI 90 year-old Dow Jones index hints at correctionGlobally, Dow Jones industrial index has been on the growth for almost 90 years since the Great Depression.
Ironically, World War II launched an industrial boom in the United States that pushed the index up.
It took 30 years and increase in 10 times of the DJI value before a more or less significant correction took place in 1973 , and the oil crisis can be called the main driver.
The next corrections came again 30 years later: the crash of the Dotcoms of the 00s and the financial crisis of 2008-2009 , which should already be in the minds of most readers.
And now, not a simple 2020, closed with the Japanese candle "hanging man" , which can be regarded as the first bearish signal.
The collapse of the index in the spring 2020 through the first wave of coronavirus, and then its rapid growth amid subsidies to the population and the economy, formed a large shadow under the body of the candle.
How long will the economy be supported by the US printing press, will vaccination have an effect, or maybe something else will happen, we do not know...
But according to candle analysis, if the next candle behind the Hangman opens lower , then many traders may want to consider selling.
It's very interesting how the trades will open in 2021!
You will say that journalists refer more to the DJI index , and traders are guided by the S&P 500 (by the way, Tesla shares were added to the index a week ago) and you will probably be right. The Dow index has been calculated since the 19th century and is historically very important, but in 1957 appeared a competitor S&P 500.
All the same, the S&P 500 index, which includes the value of shares of 500 companies, more realistically shows the mood of the modern market than the Dow Jones industrial index, which includes only 30 companies.
We have added the S&P 500 to the chart below and what do we see? Another "hanging man" or Hangman.
By the way, it's not bad enough, historically they work out Fibo levels on the indices , everyone can find something that he likes.
Write in the comments, your expectations for 2021
SPX's Deviation from 200W MA since inception's day 1957-weeklyHey guys what's up
This is a weekly study VS. daily i did last time.
I am including all the data here so you can copy, share or edit it on Microsoft apps. feel free to reuse or redistribute all
my work to our trading view community or out side it.
March's low is most likely a fresh new cycle to say the least " believe it or not" with out bias you would come to this conclusion
one way or another and you should accept if before time proof that for you. (even if we get big corrections this is how financial markets behave : -) )
Moreover i probably did allot of mistakes here and there, missed allot of important details ... but i did everything with the best to my ability : -)
wish you all the best.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summery 11 times : Green count .
Above 50
54% of pullbacks single digits
46 % double digits correction
very close margin to favor one
over the other.
All deviations above 50 :
-----------------------------
Deviation Pullbacks/correction
54.84 13.08
57.25 7.17
61.99 22.39
59.53 13
61.78 7.35
60.42 34.52
54.78 8.77
55 9.83 crash came for less
57 7
58 10.59
56.33 4.62
******************************************************
Summery 11 times : Blue count.
40-40.99
46 % single digits pullbacks
54 % double digits corrections
All Deviation 40-49.99 :
------------------------------------
47.29 49.94 2000 crash
46.11 10.05
48.98 10.29
43.78 5.96
41.79 10.03
46.15 9.12
46.07 5.32
47.50 21.46 crash of 1957
43 3.52
43 6.82
43 5.9
********************************************************
Summery 21 times : Orange count
30-30.99
76 % single digits pullbacks &
24 double digits corrections
- pullback. That’s a huge jump from
the 40s.
All deviation 30-30.99 :
-------------------------------------------
30.38 10.55
32.61 11.84
33.61 5.16
33.27 9.84
34.60 4.35
34.63 6.67
34.73 6.03
30.65 4.82
31.37 4.81
31.37 4.81
32.83 7.52
37.74 10.90
39.74 5.33
33.19 4.11
34.17 5.58
30.23 8.48
37.05 7.53
33.05 14.71
37.21 26.44
33.38 7.79
30.20 6.10
*************************************************************
Summery 47 times : Dark Green count
20.20.99
71 % single digits Pullbacks
29 % double digits corrections
All deviation 20-20.99
27 8.9
20.46 8.27
29.12 35.52 covid crash
21 5.46
22.86 6.80
22.58 7.63
27.76 20.21
24.38 3.56
27.73 6.82
25 Nothing happened
20 2.95
20 2.99
21.16 14.37 within a pullback
29.64 15.09
27.54 8.90
25.59 10.94
24.34 57.72 2007 crash
25.16 11.86
23.05 6.84
21.72 8.08
20.55 9.73
22.43 5.36
21.76 4.80
20.97 3.43
21.08 6.67
27.70 6.83
25.41 6.60
25.29 5.59
25.16 20.33
28.12 11.30
23.19 9.24
27.62 4.03
23.50 8.98
25 49.95 crash of 1973
20.25 37.36 crash of 1969
23.90 23.70 crash of 1966
24.20 4.39
24.97 10.94 N.h
24.35 3.33 N.h
24.17 4.78
25 4.19
23.51 4.47
27.54 29.27 crassh of 1962
25.19 3.90
27.83 14.06
25 3.95
24 4.39
***********************************************************
Summery 25 times : Purple count
10-19.99
72 % signal digits Pullbacks
28 % double digits.
All deviations 10-10.99
19 1.74
18 1.94
16.5 5
14.64 6.08
15.93 4
17.04 21.58
17.39 6.22
15.65 7.30
14.88 4.45
14 7.27
19.93 21
12.85 11.68
14.147 15.12
10 8.10
14.89 20.45
17 5.45
12.33 15.39
16.11 7.60
11.94 11.36
14.29 8.36
13.64 4.76
13.62 8.43
18.89 7.58
15.31 5.19
19 4.6
*********************************************************************
Deviation below 10 % of spx:
Very shocking results
Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
Long Long Long Long Long Long Long Long
The safest area to go long with every thing
else is being absolute !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Deviation pullback
9.60 4.60
**********************************************************************
All acceptable pullbacks happened above 10 % of
SPX's 200W MA !!! very safe zone to be long is
when deviation is 9.99 and under . Most important
discovery of this study of this indicator with every
thing else being absolute !!!
**********************************************************************************
Deviation Below 200W MA:
49-37 Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
and Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold
All Deviation below 200W MA
-----------------------------------
16.90
7.04
49.44
37.98
10.64
8.03
5.87
4.12
6.15
38.94
5.55
26.75
10.05
13.92
3.35
************************************************
Summery of all summaries :
( Keep this handy close by for your swings : -)
---------------------------------------------
Deviation Singal.D Double.D
50 + 54 46
40-49.99 46 54
30-30.99 76 24
20-29.99 71 29
10-19.99 72 25
Below 10 4.6 Zero
------------------------------------------------
Hope this would be like a Guide Book for this weekly indicator. Keep the summaries close by for your trading .
wish you all the best.
SPX's Deviation from 200D MA since inception's day 1957Hey guys what's up
I am including all the data here so you can copy, share or edit it on Microsoft apps. feel free to reuse of redistribute all
my work to our trading view community or out side it.
March's low is most likely a fresh new cycle to say the least " believe it or not" with out bias you would come to this conclusion
one way or another and you should accept if before time proof that for you. (even if we get big corrections this is how financial markets behave : -) )
Moreover i probably did allot of mistakes here and there, missed allot of important details ... but i did everything with most to my ability : -)
*************************************
SUMMERY: (RED #s)
During each new cycle we usually get the higher & highest
numbers. the more we go into the cycle the more
the deviations get lower. Moreover, we do get
allot of NOT worthy to mention pullbacks even though
we have higher number of deviation !!! .
--------------So, no GOLDEN RULE here at all.---------------
wish you all the best.
**************************************************************
SUMMERY: (BLUE #s)
Deviation below 200d MA is not that common on a daily
chart, and i assume it would be more rare on a weekly
chart. (5 r single digits-4r20s—9 r teens-1is30s-2r40s-
1is50( Most extremes since inception r (54-47-46-32)
------------"40 % 10-19"/"22% below 10"/"8% 20s"---------
BUY BUY BUY BBUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
-----------WHEN YOU SEE THOSE "3" EXTREEMS.-------------
Deviation below 200d MA.
-8
-25.37
-6.08
-19.91
- 7.41
-32.88
-9.94
-46.18
-15.63
-22.66
-11.51
-11.40
-27.48
-14.60
-12.49
-47.69 2000
-54.77 2007
-16.48
-9 %
-12.21 %
-15.13
-27.81 covid-19
***************************************************************************
SUMMERY: (GREEN #s)
Some of the biggest corrections/crashes/crisis
came from small percentages of deviation from
SPX's price !!! That's a key note to be observed
closely. In Contrary to the general view that the
more we go the more likely we have a stronger crash
---------- DATA says this is WRONG!!!---------------------
Since the inception of Standard & Poor's 500 :
--------------------------------------------------------
11.79 Covid -19 crash
6.4 % 2018 correction
3.45 % 2015 correction
12.21 % 2011
6.95 % 2007 crisis
6.11 % 2000 crisis
14.95 % 1999 correction
17 % 1998 correction
5.68 % 1994 10 % pullback
7.20 % 1990 correction 20 %
17.92 % 1987 crisis
20 1980 correction
13 % 1980 correction
8 % 1976 big Correction
9.97 % 1973 big crash
11.85 % 1968 big correction
5.96 % 1966 big correction
8.47 % 1962 big correction
8.62 1959 big correction
-----------------------------
we have a range of 20%- 3.45 %
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summery : (Orange)
the largest 15 crashes in the history of SPX since
inception has no relation what so ever. 53 % of
corrections came from double digits % deviation!!!
47% of correction came from single digit deviations
The largest crashes since 1957 (inception):
----------------------------------------------------
11.79 35.27 covid-19 crash
6.45 20.23
12.21 21.59
6.95 57 2007 crash
13.18 50 2000 crash
14.69 22.52
7.2 20.32
17.92 36
20.39 28.08
13.76 21.58
8.02 20
9.97 52.08 big crash 73
11.85 37.12 big crash 1969
5.96 23.69 big crash 1966
8.74 29.26 1962 big crash
------------- So it is 50-50 chance !!!!!----------------
**********************************************************************
All Deviation above 20 + except for few where at
the beginning of new cycle. In another word they
came all after big crashes/corrections. Therefore
getting these high numbers of deviation is
confirming YES confirming that we are beginning
a new cycle.: 18 % of these double digits pullbacks.
82 % of these are a single digit pullback.
After March's low we r getting high #s(new Cycle)!!
All Deviation above 20 +
-----------------------------------
20.63 6.55 Beg.
20.81 5.57 Beg.
21.22 7.18
20.49 4 N.wm Beg. 1982
20.63 3.27 beg. 1982
20.85 6.24 Beg. 1982
23.78 9.03 Beg. 1982
20.39 28.08
21.23 15.54 Beg.
23.90 5.52 Beg.
20.15 4.69 Beg
*******************************************************************
Summery: All deviations between 15-19.99
20 % of these we get a double digit pullback
80 % is a shocking single digits pullback !!!!!
All deviation between 15-19.99
--------------------------------------
16.17 10.37
16.54 7.17
17.11 5.07 N.WM
16 13.07
19.76 6.49
16.53 10.29
15 6.03
15.97 6.43
15.46 3.5 N.WM
16.82 3.47 N.WM
17.92 36
19 9.33
16.23 9.12
18.87 4.86
19.77 5.05
16.78 7.63
18.14 7.79
18.31 15.47 Beg.
19.69 3.60 Beg.
*****************************************************************
Summery: All deviation between 10-14.99
36 % of the time we will get double digit pullbacks
up to 64 % of the time single digits pullbacks.
Therefor this area is favoring small dips !!!!
All deviation between 10-14.99
Deviation pullbacks
13.42 8.9
11.79 covid-19 crash 35.27
13.91 11.84
13.81 7.58
12.24 10.96
12.21 21.59
12.35 17.16
14.70 9.26
11.28 8.55 Beg.
14.14 5.35 Beg.
13.18 2000 crash
14.13 13.13
14.69 22.52
11.76 7.39
13.95 5.96 N.WM
10.79 11.04
12.77 3.95 N.WM Beg.
13.99 2.59 N.WM Beg.
14.57 14.57 N.WM Beg.
14.01 5.59 N.WM Beg.
13.89 9.26
10.80 4.76 N.wm Beg.
10.93 10.14
10.69 8.28
10.14 3.18 N.wm
12.90 4.03 N.wm
13.76 21.58
13.79 15.15
10/13/13 6/6/4.70 N.W
11.85 37.12 big crash 1969
13.87 8.36 Beg.
12.39 5.06 Beg.
11.83 4.41 Beg.
13.86 4.42 Beg.
14.97 3.36 Beg.
10.82 1.86 Beg.
Summery: 36 % of the time we will get double digit pullbacks up to 64 % of the time single digists pullbacks.Therefor this area is favoring small dips !!!!
***********************************************************************
************************************************************************************************************************
Summery: All Deviations between 5-9.99. 28 % of
them double digits pullbacks 72% single digits pullbacks.
Either, my 42 sample is not enough and in this area i am
wrong, or things get missy around these numbers !!!!!!!
All Deviations between 5-9.99
Deviation pullbacks
6.94 6.94
8.89 6.87
6.75 7.64
6.45 20.23
8.92 8.87
6.32 4.76
6.99 5.16
6.78 9.88
9.23 6.12
9.44 8.90
6.95 2007 crash
7.67 12
9.02 6.69
5.75 8.09
6.95 7.32
9.89 10.35
5.68 9.70
7.7 5.36
9.22 6.75
7.2 20.32
8.74 11.30
7.40 7.43 N.wm Beg.
8.46 14.68
9.69 11.73
9.06 4.05
8. 9.97 52.08 big crash 73
8.23/9/10 6.23/6.18/6.55 02 20
8.89 8.50
9.72 4.66
5.96 23.69 big crash 1966
6.32 4.41
6.16 10.94
6.37 4.87
8.90 4.19
8.69 4.47
8.98 2.83 N.wm
8.40 7.59
8.74 29.26 big crash 62
8.69 3.89
8.62 9.32
************************************************************************
Summery: All deviation below 5 % off 200D MA
is just 50 % double digits % 50 % single digits
pullbacks.
All deviation below 5 :
2.66 14.50
3.45 12.28
4.94 6.16
3.7 6.71
4.83 3.96
4.65 6.75
4.62 11.35
4.16 13.63 big crash
***********************************************************************
******************************************
All raw data
Total of most extended deviation
since the inception of S&P 500 in
1957 :
----------------------------------------
Deviation----pullback/corrections
?????????????????????????????????
13.42 8.9
16.17 10.37
11.79 covid-19 crash 35.27
6.94 6.94
8.89 6.87
6.75 7.64
6.45 20.23
8.92 8.87
13.91 11.84
6.32 4.76
2.66 14.50
3.45 12.28
6.99 5.16
6.78 9.88
9.23 6.12
13.81 7.58
9.44 8.90
12.24 10.96
12.21 21.59
12.35 17.16
14.70 9.26
20.63 6.55
20.81 5.57
6.95 2007 crash
7.67 12
9.02 6.69
5.75 8.09
4.94 6.16
6.95 7.32
11.28 8.55 Beg.
14.14 5.35 Beg.
6 2000 crash
13.18 2000 crash
9.89 10.35
14.13 13.13
16.54 7.17
14.69 22.52
17.11 5.07 N.WM
11.76 7.39
16 13.07
19.76 6.49
16.53 10.29
13.95 5.96 N.WM
10.79 11.04
15 6.03
12.77 3.95 N.WM Beg.
13.99 2.59 N.WM Beg.
14.57 14.57 N.WM Beg.
5.68 9.70
7.7 5.36
3.7 6.71
4.83 3.96
9.22 6.75
4.65 6.75
14.01 5.59 N.WM Beg.
15.97 6.43 N.WM Beg.
7.2 20.32
8.74 11.30
13.89 9.26
15.46 3.5 N.WM
16.82 3.47 N.WM
10.80 4.76 N.wm Beg.
7.40 7.43 N.wm Beg.
17.92 36
19 9.33
10.93 10.14
16.23 9.12
18.87 4.86
19.77 5.05
21.22 7.18
12.48 5.58
10.69 8.28
11.21 canceled this one too close
10.14 3.18 N.wm
12.90 4.03 N.wm
8.46 14.68
16.78 7.63
20.49 4 N.wm Beg.
20.63 3.27 beg.
20.85 6.24 Beg.
23.78 9.03 Beg.
16.05 canceled with in a crash
20.39 28.08
18.14 7.79
13.76 21.58
9.69 11.73
9.06 4.05
13.79 15.15
4.9 canceled within a crash
8.02 20
10/13/13 6/6/4.70 N.W
21.23 15.54 Beg.
23.90 5.52 Beg.
9.97 52.08 big crash 73
8.23/9/10 6.23/6.18/6.55 N.W
18.31 15.47 Beg.
19.69 3.60 Beg.
20.15 4.69 Beg.
11.85 37.12 big crash 1969
4.62 11.35
8.89 8.50
9.72 4.66
13.87 8.36 Beg.
5.96 23.69 big crash 1966
6.32 4.41
6.16 10.94
6.37 4.87
8.90 4.19
8.69 4.47
8.98 2.83 N.wm
8.40 7.59
12.39 5.06 Beg.
11.83 4.41 Beg.
8.74 29.26 62 big crash
8.69 3.89
13.86 4.42 Beg.
14.97 3.36 Beg.
10.82 1.86 Beg.
4.16 13.63 big crash
8.62 9.32
15 Beg.
15 Beg.
15 Beg.
Ready for another ATH? 📈The SP500 manages to break the 2 important resistance lines at 3550 and 3588 points. The way for higher quotations is now paved and we expect prices to rise to 3800 points. Another imminent hurdle the bulls are facing is however the current all time high at 3674. Still the bulls reamin strong and as long as market stays above 3550, we expect the SP500 to rise. Should we break below 3550 the chances for wave alt.ii will accumulate. At the moment we consider this alternative scenario with a probability of 35%.
What do you think? Happy Trading! Happy Holiday! 🦃
The Bulls love Biden! 🗳️Or do they? In an impulsive wave, the bulls manage to push above the 3550 mark. A major resistance that makes us abandon our primary expectation, as indicated in our last post. This scenario is now our alternative count, which has to be considered with a 42% probability. To further strengthen the upwards move, we need to see a quotation of 3572 and higher, plus a break out above the current all time high. If the bulls manage to deliver, the way is paved for 3800 points and higher. We are at a crossroads to see if the breakout caused by the election results will be sustainable. As long as we hold above 3500, the SP500 is set up for higher notation.
BTC/USD - SP 500 - XAU: What shall we expect now? Hello, traders!
It's been a crazy week and it's time to make a round-up on the major indices.
After passing the psychological mark of $12 000, Bitcoin started demonstrating rapid growth.
The key reasons for the growth are:
USDT emission in the total amount of +7.5 billion between September 1, 2020, and today;
a large number of open short positions that had to be closed by SL's, pushed the price even higher.
If we consider three years of Bitcoin movement, we can see how the price went into a one-week correction before continuing its growth.
The current bitcoin rally brought the price to a new trading range of $13 880 - $15 800. A similar range was formed in 2017 between the levels of $5 850 - $7 450, where the price returned later.
In the visible trading volume profile, you can clearly see the poorly traded area after $12 000, which will be filled by the price movement.
SP 500
The driver of the new round of growth in the stock market was the news about the vaccine from PFIZER. After that, liquidity began to move from fin-tech companies to the sectors of the economy that were affected worse by the Covid-19.
XAU/GOLD
Simultaneously with the growth of the stock market, participants' appetite for risk assets began to grow, which led to the dump of the gold prices by more than 100 points after securing positions in the protective asset.
So, what shall we expect now?
Based on what is written above, we can assume that the markets are preparing for a New Year's rally, which may be hampered by political instability amidst disputed election results in the United States.
Please share your thoughts on my vision in the comments below and watch out for the market!